Seminario CEDE

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CEDE
Seminario CEDE

Jueves 13 de Octubre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Nikita Sangwan - Indian Statistical Inst., Delhi Center

Jueves 20 de Octubre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Oscar Becerra - Universidad de los Andes

Jueves 27 de Octubre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Camilo Arias - Universidad de los Andes

Jueves 3 de Noviembre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Sandra Rozo - World Bank

Jueves 10 de Noviembre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Yonas Alem - University of Gothenburg, Sweden

Jueves 17 de Noviembre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: David Pérez Reyna - Universidad de los Andes

Jueves 24 de Noviembre | 12:30 p.m.
Por confirmar
Presenta: Rachid Laajaj - Universidad de los Andes

+ Marcela Eslava | The Size and Life-Cycle Growth of Plants: The Role of Productivity, Demand and Wedges

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	John Haltiwanger, Nicolas Urdaneta
Abstract	What determines the distribution of establishments in terms of size and life-cycle growth? How are those determinants related to aggregate productivity? We provide novel answers by developing a framework that uses price and quantity information on establishments’ outputs and inputs to jointly estimate the demand and production parameters, and subsequently establishments’ quality-adjusted productivity, deriving both micro-level and aggregate implications. We find that the dominant source of variation in establishment size is variation in quality/product appeal but that variation in technical efficiency plays an important supporting role. Multiple factors dampen dispersion in establishment size including dispersion in input (quality adjusted) prices, markups, and residual wedges. Relatively moderate dampening factors induce large aggregate allocative efficiency losses relative to their absence. We show that joint estimation of the parameters of the demand and production function crucially affects inferences on the determinants of the size distribution of firms and their implications for aggregate productivity.
Fecha	29 de septiembre de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Nicolás de Roux | Temperature Shocks and Land Fragmentation: Evidence from Transaction and Property Registry Data

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Julián Arteaga (UC, Davis), Margarita Gáfaro (Banrep), Ana María Ibáñez (BID)
Abstract	The size of farms is an important determinant of agricultural productivity. This paper studies how rural land markets respond to weather shocks and how the farm size distribution changes as a consequence. Using two unique administrative data sets with transaction-level information on land sales in the country of Colombia and a land registry covering most of the country, we estimate the impact of extreme temperature events on the frequency of land sales and on the farm-size distribution of small geographical units. We find that local land markets that experienced more frequent shocks have more land sales, more owners, and more and smaller farms.
Fecha	22 de septiembre de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Andrés Zambrano | Hacia un PIB tendencial fiscal

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Andrés Zambrano, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	El PIB potencial, definido como aquel no inflacionario, se usa como un instrumento para definir la postura de la política monetaria. El propósito de este documento es encontrar una medida de PIB tendencial coherente con las necesidades de política fiscal que considere los costos de una política expansiva a través del pago de intereses de la deuda soberana. Para responder esta pregunta, se propone un modelo de ciclos reales con un hogar que sustituye consumo privado y consumo público, una firma agregada sujeta a choques de productividad, un sector externo que demanda deuda soberana y una autoridad fiscal que se preocupa por la sostenibilidad de la deuda. El modelo encuentra una relación negativa (positiva) entre la tasa de interés de la deuda soberana y la brecha del producto (desempleo), y una relación positiva con la brecha del gasto (empleo) público. Estas correlaciones son encontradas en los datos reales y se usan para la estimación del PIB tendencial fiscal a través de un filtro de Kalman.
Fecha	15 de septiembre de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Mateo Hoyos | Trade liberalization and structural change: municipal dynamic effects of Colombia’s FTA with the US

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Mateo Hoyos, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Coautor	José Alejandro Coronado (UCL)
Abstract	We study the dynamic effects of trade liberalization on structural change and growth for a developing economy at the municipal level. We exploit exogenous tariff reductions introduced by the FTA between Colombia and the US in 2012. By relying on a quasi-experimental shift-share research design, operationalized through local projections difference-in-differences (LP-DiD), we show that municipalities facing higher tariff reductions are characterized by lower total and GDP per capita. We argue and provide evidence that a key mechanism through which this instance of trade liberalization operated was regressive structural change: municipalities facing higher tariff reductions are characterized by lower manufacturing shares in GDP.
Fecha	1 de septiembre de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Miguel Sarzosa | `What is the tea’ with gender conformity?

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Miguel Sarzosa, Purdue University
Coautores	Abigail Banan (Purdue University), Torsten Santavirta (Helsinki University and Uppsala University)
Abstract	Much of the recent work on gender economics explains gender gaps pointing to differences in preferences, societal gender norms and prescriptive stereotypes about what women and men should be good or bad at and what they should like or dislike. But what happens to the individuals that do not behave/choose like the gender-typical person? We address this question using longitudinal data that allows us to measure gender conformity during childhood—using a seemingly irrelevant questionnaire—and tracks individuals through their life. We find that female nonconformers have substantially better school careers, labor market outcomes and are more likely to end up in male dominated occupations as compared to their gender conforming counterparts. We find the opposite pattern among male gender nonconformers; they perform substantially worse at school, earn less as adults and are more likely to be unemployed relative to their gender conforming male peers. We also see a positive correlation between gender nonconforming boys and mental health and addiction issues later in life. Furthermore, we find that gender nonconforming girls tend to delay childbearing in adulthood and face higher incidence of divorce.
Fecha	25 de agosto de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Juan Herreño | Asymmetric Information and Capital Accumulation

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Juan Herreño, University of California, San Diego
Coautores	Aimé Bierdel, Andrés Drenik, Pablo Ottonello
Abstract	We study the macroeconomic implications of asymmetric information in capital markets. We build a general-equilibrium capital-accumulation model in which capital is traded in decentralized markets, with sellers having more information about capital quality than buyers. Asymmetric information distorts the terms of trade for sellers of high-quality capital, who list higher prices and are willing to accept lower trading probabilities to signal their type. Led by the model’s predictions, we propose an identification strategy to measure the degree of asymmetric information based on the relationship between listed prices and selling probabilities and apply it using a unique dataset on a panel of individual capital units listed for trade. By combining the model and empirical measurement, we show that the degree of asymmetric information has quantitatively large effects on aggregate income levels and operates through three channels: aggregate investment, capital unemployment rate, and average quality of employed capital.
Fecha	18 de agosto de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Luis Rojas | The Bright Side of the Doom Loop: Banks Exposure and Default Incentives

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	Luis Rojas, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona
Coautor	Dominik Thaler (European Central Bank)
Abstract	The feedback loop between sovereign and financial sector insolvency has been identified as a key driver of the European debt crisis and has motivated an array of policy proposals. We revisit this “doom-loop” focusing on governments' incentives to default. To this end, we present a simple 3-period model with strategic sovereign default, where debt is held by domestic banks and foreign investors. The government maximizes domestic welfare, and thus the temptation to default increases with externally-held debt. Importantly, the costs of default arise endogenously from the damage that default causes to domestic banks' balance sheets. Internally-held debt thus serves as a commitment device for the government. We show that two prominent policy prescriptions – lower exposure of banks to domestic sovereign debt or a commitment not to bailout banks – can backfire, since default incentives depend not only on the quantity of debt, but also on who holds it. Conversely, allowing banks to buy additional sovereign debt in times of sovereign distress can avert the doom loop. We also show that the recently proposed anti fragmentation tool of the ECB could also backfire if local banks engage in a selloff of sovereign debt.
Fecha	11 de agosto de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Ethan Kaplan | Desegregation and Political Preferences: Long-Run Evidence from Kentucky

Lugar	Salón B-401
Conferencista	Ethan Kaplan, University of Maryland
Coautores	Jörg Spenkuch, Cody Tuttle
Abstract	In 1974, a federal court ordered that public schools in Jefferson County, KY be desegregated. To achieve racial integration, students were assigned to a busing schedule that depended on the first letter of their last name. This led to quasi-random variation in the number of years of busing and, for the initial cohorts, whether individuals were bused at all. We use this variation to estimate the long-run impact of busing on political participation and preferences. Focusing on white males, we do not detect any effect on voter turnout. We do, however, find that busing significantly increases Democratic party affiliation more than forty years later. Consistent with the idea that attending a formerly black, city school causes a change in the broad ideological outlook of whites, we also find that bused individuals are less likely to donate to organizations that advocate for conservative causes.
Fecha	17 de junio de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Álvaro Riascos | A Spatial Discrete Choice Model of Crime

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Álvaro Riascos, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Douglas Newball-Ramírez, Mateo Dulce Rubio, Andrés Hoyos
Abstract	Overall, the causal relationship between proactive policing (in the sense of more time of police presence) and the incidence of crime is not yet well established. In this work, we use a unique experimental data set tailored to identify the causal impact of police patrolling on crime. Using this data, set we exploit an identification strategy based on a random utility model of crime location choice. The model allows us to identify agents’ utilities from observable data. We were able to estimate own-and cross-elasticities of crime to patrolling time and we were able to evaluate alternative patrolling strategies (i.e, interventions or policy scenarios). To the extent of our knowledge, both the identification of elasticities and the counterfactual analysis are novel features in this literature. Our estimates show that 1% more time patrolling reduces crime an average of 0.19%. Cross-price elasticities show little support to negative spillover effects of police patrolling. We also evaluate four different patrolling time allocation strategies without increasing the total police time available. Our results show that allocating police time according to crime incidence and the elasticities of each quadrant, could potentially reduce violent crime by 4.13% and property crime by 6%.
Archivo	Ver documento
Fecha	3 de junio de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Juan Sebastián Galán | African Origins of Development in the Colombian Pacific

Lugar	Salón B-401
Conferencista	Juan Sebastián Galán, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Eduardo Montero (Harvard University)
Abstract	This paper examines the effects of African ancestral ethnic differences on long-run economic development in the Americas through the lens of the Colombian Pacific lowlands. We trace the African ethnic origins of afro-colombians by linking a wealth of ethnographical sources with contemporary micro-level data on lastnames. Exploiting discontinuities along the geographical boundaries of Afro-Colombian Community Councils (ACCs), we find preliminary evidence of a “reversal of fortunes”. In contrast to the view that slavery broke African ties, individuals whose ancestors came from more economically developed ethnicities — characterized by centralized governance, loose kinship ties, and non-collective property rights — exhibit worse living standards today. Based on evolutionary anthropology insights, we hypothesize that cultural mismatch explains why opposite African ancestral ethnic traits — including decentralized governance, tight kinship ties, and collective property rights — may have been more useful for adapting to the new Colombian environment of exploitation.
Fecha	20 de mayo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Natalia Garbiras Díaz | The Limits of Decentralized Administrative Data Collection: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Natalia Garbiras Díaz, Postdoctoral fellow en el European University Institute
Coautor	Tara Slough (Profesora Asistente de la NYU University)
Abstract	States collect vast amounts of data for use in policy making and public administration. Central governments frequently solicit data from the bureaucrats of decentralized government entities. When central governments use these data in policymaking, bureaucrats in decentralized entities may face incentives to report inaccurately, limiting the quality of state data. We study these dynamics in the production of Colombia’s 2020 National Transparency Index in collaboration with the Colombian Attorney Inspector General’s office. A field experiment varied the salience of direct oversight of the reported data by this watchdog agency in direct communication to individual bureaucratic entities. Bureaucrats respond to more salient oversight by changing reporting behavior. Through an independent audit of subjects’ transparency practices, we describe how bureaucrats’ reporting behaviors vary in the actual transparency practices of their organization. We argue that the strategic dynamics inherent to decentralized data production by bureaucrats render state data an important but understudied political outcome.
Fecha	13 de mayo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Jorge Mondragón Minero | Choosing the right apple to bite: Optimal foreign currency debt denomination

Lugar	Salón RGD-112
Conferencista	Jorge Mondragón Minero, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM)
Abstract	The Original Sin Hypothesis states that emerging economies are restricted to issue external debt in foreign currencies. However, little attention has been given to the question: Which foreign currency should external debt be issued? In this paper, I study external debt in foreign currency by emerging economies and its link to default risk. I document empirically that as default risk increases, the share of external debt issued in the foreign currency linked to trade falls. I build a real sovereign default model where a small open economy issues debt in two different foreign currencies and faces fluctuations to the real exchange rates associated with them. Theoretically and quantitatively, the model replicates the negative relationship between spreads and the share of debt issued in the foreign currency linked to trade. Lastly, the model matches the fluctuations in share of foreign currency sovereign external debt issued in US dollars by Argentina from 2010 to 2020.
Fecha	3 de mayo de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Alexander Buriticá | Vacas, árboles y leche: prácticas sostenibles en una cadena de valor ganadera

Lugar	Salón B-401
Conferencista	Alexander Buriticá, Universidad de los Andes
Fecha	29 de abril de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Suanna Oh | Does Identity Affect Labor Supply?

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Suanna Oh, Paris School of Economics
Abstract	Does identity influence economic behavior in the labor market? I investigate this question in rural India, focusing on the effect of caste identity on job-specific labor supply. In a field experiment, laborers choose whether to take up various job offers, which differ in associations with specific castes. Workers are less willing to accept offers that are linked to castes other than their own, especially when those castes rank lower in the social hierarchy. Workers forego large payments to avoid job offers that conflict with their caste identity, regardless of whether these decisions are made in private.
Fecha	22 de abril de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Maria Micaela Sviatschi | Rebel Governance and Development: The Long Term Effects of Guerrilla’s in El Salvador

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Maria Micaela Sviatschi, Princeton University
Coautores	Antonella Bandiera, Lelys Dinarte-Diaz, Juan Miguel Jimenez, y Sandra V. Rozo
Abstract	How can territorial control by armed non-governmental actors impact long-term development? This article investigates the economic, social, and political consequences of guerrilla’s territorial control in the Salvadoran Civil War. It employs spatial regression discontinuity design and census data to compare areas around and close to the boundary of guerrilla’s controlled territories between 1981 and 1991. Results indicate that areas inside and in close proximity to guerrilla-controlled boundaries have significantly less night light density, worse education outcomes, and lower wealth indexes relative to the areas outside in the 2010s. These effects are primarily driven by the erosion of labor markets, lower public goods provision, and higher political discontent and mistrust.
Fecha	8 de abril de 2022
Hora	12:00 p.m.

+ Petr Martynov | Welfare Effects of Zoning: Density Restrictions and Heterogeneous Spillovers

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Petr Martynov, University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business
Abstract	An extensive set of land use regulations shape the geography of most major US cities. I study how the distribution of these restrictions affects the location of industries within the city, aggregate productivity, and welfare. In a theoretical framework, the welfare effects of density restrictions depend on the strength of spillover effects, which I estimate using multiple datasets on economic activity within New York City. The estimates based on variation in the historical zoning reform imply higher productive externalities in the office sector and negative amenity externalities in the industrial sectors. Counterfactual policy simulations show that current density restrictions are very costly — increasing allowed density in the city by 5% leads to a welfare gain of 1%. Heterogeneity across sectors magnifies the welfare effects of restrictions on the office sector and in the city center.
Fecha	5 de abril de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Fabio Sánchez | Los Efectos Educativos de la Vivienda Gratuita: Evidencia para Colombia

Lugar	Salón B-401
Conferencista	Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Coutores	Adriana Camacho (Universidad de los Andes), Valentina Duque (Universidad de Sidney), Michael Gilraine (New York University)
Abstract	Este artículo analizaos el efecto del ambicioso Programa Vivienda Gratuita de Colombia en Los resultados educativos de los niños, niñas y jóvenes. El programa entrego vivienda gratuita a los beneficiarios a través de un sorteo en áreas deseables. Se evalúa el programa aprovechando los sorteos de viviendas y vinculando a los solicitantes con sus hijos e hijas en edad escolar. Encontramos que ganar la vivienda aumenta la graduación de la escuela secundaria en siete puntos porcentuales – un aumento del diecisiete por ciento en relación con la media de los controles-, los puntajes en las pruebas Saber 11 y el ingreso a la universidad. Los mecanismos que explican estos resultados indican que los ganadores de las viviendas reportan mejores condiciones de entorno -incluyendo menores tasas de criminalidad- y tiempos de viaje más cortos para acceder a bienes públicos. En adición, los hijos e hijas de los ganadores asisten a mejores escuelas.
Fecha	1 de abril de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ José Alberto Guerra | Anti-social norms

Lugar	Salón W-101
Conferencista	José Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coutores	Leopoldo Fergusson (Universidad de los Andes), James Robinson (University of Chicago)
Abstract	Formal rules can only partially reduce opportunistic behavior in human interactions. Cooperative or pro-social behavior, arising as a social norm and enforced by third parties (often at a personal cost) is therefore essential to achieve desirable social outcomes. But social norms do not always promote efficient outcomes. We study one particularly pernicious social norm (the "no sea sapo norm", as it is referred to in Colombia) that breaks the enforcement mechanism through third-party punishment: it dictates people to mind their own business and not snitch on others. We implement a set of fairness games. A third party can punish unfair behavior, but those behaving unfairly can enforce the "no sea sapo" norm upon the third party. We find that the mere possibility of enforcing the "no sea sapo" norm increases the deviation from fair social outcomes. The effects are quantitatively important, to the point that living in a society where people may enforce the "no sea sapo" norm is equivalent to living in a society without third-party punishment. Moreover, players expect others to enforce the norm, and anticipate facing fellow players' condemnation for inviting pro-social behavior. Despite using the norm, players understand that it is normatively unappealing.
Fecha	25 de marzo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Jorge Castro | Heurísticas como determinantes de la oferta agrícola

Lugar	Salón RGD-210
Conferencista	Jorge Castro, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	La psicología ha identificado cómo las personas suelen reemplazar procesos de decisión complejos con reglas sencillas llamadas heurísticas. En particular la formación de expectativas sobre el precio futuro puede ser un proceso complejo que se puede reemplazar utilizando únicamente los precios más recientes o incluso solo el último disponible. En este documento se estudia el efecto de estas heurísticas en la función de oferta agrícola. Se utiliza un panel dinámico para modelar la oferta agrícola tomando como aproximación para las expectativas de los productores agrícolas los precios y sus decisiones previas. Se incluyen una serie de variables que reflejan las heurísticas como regresores. Se encontró que la función de oferta tiene un exceso de producción ante precios altos. Además, se explora la relación de estas con la disponibilidad de información y el nivel educativo de los campesinos, mostrando que este fenómeno se presenta en lugares con baja disponibilidad de información y bajos niveles de educación haciendo a estas poblaciones más vulnerables a fenómenos de sobreproducción.
Fecha	18 de marzo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Nicolás de Roux | Behavioral Nudges and Credit Repayment

Lugar	Salón RGD-210
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Giogia Barboni (Warwick) Juan Camilo Cárdenas (Massachusetts Amherst y Uniandes)
Abstract	We use a large, randomized controlled trial involving 7,063 late clients of a Colombian private bank to understand whether providing borrowers with text messages containing different types of behavioral nudges to repay their loan improves repayment rates, and which of these nudges is the most effective. The trial leverages several streams of text messages that address different barriers and biases to loan repayment faced by borrowers. We find that receiving a nudge to repay decreases borrowers' average likelihood to be late by 4%. The effects are more pronounced when borrowers receive a nudge that leverages social and moral norms of repayment. Our results are concentrated among late borrowers with a good credit history. We also find some evidence that those living in areas with high trust towards banks respond more to nudges. Our findings suggest that behavioral nudges are effective tools to improve repayment behavior when borrowers have preferences for repayment and when there is scope to improve their repayment behavior.
Fecha	11 de marzo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Andrés Zambrano | Learning to learn: Experimentation, entrepreneurial capital, and development

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Andrés Zambrano, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	William F. Maloney (World Bank)
Abstract	This paper models an entrepreneur's choice between investing in a safe activity or experimenting with a new risky one, and how much to invest in \entrepreneurial capital" that permits more effective use of arriving information on the latter- how much to learn how to learn. Optimal investment depends on the cost, the distance from the entrepreneurial frontier, and non-monotonically, on the expected return on the risky activity, leading to three learning regimes including a potential resource curse. The model is supported by historical evidence from Latin America and simulations of the relative decline of the Chilean versus US copper industries.
Fecha	4 de marzo de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Juan Pablo Uribe | Equilibrium Effects of Housing Subsidies: Evidence from a Policy Notch in Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Juan Pablo Uribe, Brown University
Abstract	This paper studies how the housing market in Colombia responds to policies aimed at increasing homeownership among low-income households. Private sector developers received tax incentives to build houses priced below a cutoff, and households received subsidies to buy houses below the same cutoff. The paper models an equilibrium between heterogeneous developers building differentiated housing and heterogeneous households purchasing homes. The model is estimated using bunching around the price cutoff induced by the policies. To benefit from the policy, households buy housing units up to 30 percent smaller and bunch at the policy cutoff. A counterfactual simulation shows that without supply-side incentives, developers may exit the market; their profits would be 14 percent lower.
Fecha	4 de febrero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ María Aristizabal-Ramirez | Dynamics of Corporate Credit Markets, Employment, and Wages: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	María Aristizabal-Ramirez, University of Michigan
Coautor	Christian Posso (Banco de la República de Colombia)
Abstract	This paper examines the impact of changes in corporate credit supply on employment and wages outside of financial-crisis episodes. We construct a rich annual employee-employer-credit-bank database using Colombian administrative data from the period 2008--2018 and estimate corporate credit-supply shocks using firm and bank fixed effects. These estimates provide new evidence on three empirical facts: In response to a positive credit-supply shock, (i) firms increase their investment but do not change their average employment or wages; (ii) wages decline in the bottom half of the wage distribution while increasing at the top of the distribution; and (iii) firms with more liquid assets increase employment. We develop a small-open-economy model where the effect of a credit-supply shock is consistent with the empirical facts. In the model, two opposing mechanisms are key to explaining the results: capital-low-skill substitutability and firm-specific liquidity constraints to finance labor. These competing forces explain why average wages and employment do not change in response to credit-supply shocks while low-skilled wages decline. We use the model to study how permanent reductions in the banking intermediation premium influence firm-level responses to credit-supply shocks. Relative to the baseline model, we show a positive short-term impact on employment and wages and a negative long-term effect.
Fecha	3 de febrero de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Humberto Martínez | Foreign Reserves, Fiscal Capacity, and Lender of Last Resort

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Humberto Martínez, Rutgers University
Abstract	Why do emerging markets accumulate foreign reserves for precautionary purposes while advanced economies do not? In this paper, I argue that, in contrast to advanced economies, developing countries accumulate reserves because they lack the sufficient fiscal capacity - ability to extract resources from its citizens - to provide liquidity during crises successfully. By accumulating reserves, developing countries emulates the liquidity provision capabilities of advanced economies. To show this argument, I develop a three period model of small open economy whose funding costs are driven by a global financial cycle. Moreover, I present empirical evidence for a sample of 100 countries between 1990 and 2018 that countries with lower fiscal capacity tend to have larger stocks of foreign reserves. In terms of policy, it shows that overcoming currency mismatch, without improving fiscal capacity, might not be sufficient to eliminate the need for foreign reserves.
Fecha	1 de febrero de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Paula Beltran | A Lending Network under Stress: A Structural Analysis of the Money Market Funds Industry

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Paula Beltran, UCLA
Abstract	In this paper, I study the transmission of an aggregate funding supply shock in a lending network and quantitatively assess the implications for the allocative efficiency of funding pro-vision of the US Money Markets Funds Industry. I build a tractable model that features bank sand funds that bargain over the terms of trade subject to an incomplete network of existing counter parties and bilateral bargaining. I discipline the model using data on the funds’ port-folio. I show how to identify the key parameters of the model by exploiting granular shocks of connected agents. Taking as primitives the observed changes in assets under the management of prime funds at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, the model accounts for 85% of the drop in total lending and 70% of the increase in price dispersion. I show that the allocation is inefficient. Faced with the same drop in asset under management and taking as given the network of bilateral counterparties, a central planner would reduce lending by 9% instead of 14% in equilibrium. Finally, I use the model to examine the effectiveness of the Overnight Repo Repurchase Facility.
Fecha	28 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Dario Romero | An Empire Lost: Spanish Industry and the Effect of Colonial Markets and Trade on Innovation

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Dario Romero, Columbia University
Abstract	This paper studies how changes in access to international markets affect the direction of technical change. I use two historical trade shocks that transformed markets for the Spanish textile industry at the end of the 19th century, along with newly digitized data on textile patents and production in Spain. First, after Spain effectively forced its colonies to buy manufactured cotton goods in 1891, I document an increase in cotton textile innovation relative to other fabrics. Second, after the Spanish-American war and the unexpected loss of these captive markets, I find that innovation in cotton textiles changed towards new weaving patents relative to other parts of the cotton textile production process such as threading. After 1898, cotton industrialists entered and competed in international markets where more sophisticated fabrics were in demand. Using novel archive data from a big cotton firm, I provide price and quantity-based evidence of the strength of each type of technical change. Finally, I show that these new incentives to innovation translated directly into adopting new mechanized tools in the sector. I find evidence of an expansion in industrial technology due to an increase in mechanized cotton looms used in Spain after 1900. Together, these results provide some of the first causal evidence on how international trade shapes the direction of the technical change. Although each shock meant access to new markets for Spanish cotton textiles, their effect on innovation varied because the composition of textile demand was different.
Fecha	27 de enero de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ José Gallegos | Inflation Persistence, Noisy Information and the Phillips Curve

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	José Gallegos, IIES Stockholm
Abstract	A vast literature has documented that US inflation persistence has fallen in recent decades. However, this empirical finding is difficult to explain in monetary models. Using survey data on inflation expectations, I document a positive co-movement between ex-ante average forecast errors and forecast revisions (suggesting forecast sluggishness) from 1968 to 1984, but no co-movement afterwards. I extend the New Keynesian (NK) setting with noisy and dispersed information about the aggregate state, and show that inflation is more persistent in periods of greater forecast sluggishness. My results show that the change in firm forecasting behavior, documented in survey data, explains around 90% of the fall in inflation persistence since the mid 1980s. I also find that the disconnect between inflation and the real side of the economy in recent decades can be explained by the change in information frictions. Contrary to the literature which has emphasized a flattening of the NK Phillips curve in recent data, I do not find any evidence of the change in the structural slope of the Phillips curve once I control for the change in information frictions.
Fecha	25 de enero de 2022
Hora	12:30 p.m.

+ Tatiana Velasco Rodríguez | The Effects of College Desegregation on Academic Achievement and Students' Social Interactions: Evidence from Turnstile Data

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Tatiana Velasco Rodríguez, Columbia University
Abstract	How does the desegregation of elite schools impact academic achievement? And does desegregation affect students' interactions with different types of peers within their school? In this paper, I study a natural experiment at an elite university in Colombia where the number of low-income students tripled as a result of the introduction of the financial aid program Ser Pilo Paga. The average increase in the percentage of low income peers -9.5 percentage points- had modest to null impacts on wealthy students' academic performance. I shed light on the mechanisms behind this lack of peer effects by studying changes in social interactions using data on students' co-movements across campus captured by turnstiles located at all entrances. Desegregation led to increased connections between wealthy and low-income students. At least half of the increase in interactions between wealthy and low-income students, however, is explained by interactions of wealthy students with low-income but high-achieving students. These results suggest students diversify their interactions primarily among students with similar academic achievement levels.
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Fecha	21 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Juan Felipe Riaño Rodríguez | Bureaucratic Nepotism

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Conferencista	Juan Felipe Riaño Rodríguez, British Columbia
Abstract	This paper provides the first systematic empirical examination of bureaucratic nepotism and anti-nepotism legislation in an entire modern bureaucracy. By linking confidential information on family ties and administrative employer-employee records for the universe of civil servants in Colombia, I uncover three sets of empirical findings. First, using a novel methodology of family network reconstruction, I provide evidence on the pervasiveness of close family connections in the public administration and demonstrate its negative relationship with the performance of public sector agencies. Second, by further exploiting within-bureaucrat variation in family connections generated by the turnover of top non-elected bureaucrats, I show that family connections to public sector managers and advisors distort the allocation and compensation of workers at lower levels of the hierarchy. Connected bureaucrats receive higher salaries and are more likely to be hierarchically promoted but are negatively selected in terms of public sector experience, education, and records of misconduct. Third, I evaluate an anti-nepotism legislation reform by exploiting a sharp discontinuity in the set of family connections restricted by this law. I prove the limited effectiveness of this reform and show how bureaucrats strategically responded to this policy change by substituting margins of favoritism and reshuffling posts within the public administration.
Fecha	20 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Arlen Guarin | Reparations as Development? Evidence from Victims of the Colombian Armed Conflict

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Conferencista	Arlen Guarin, UC Berkeley
Coautores	Juliana Londoño-Vélez y Christian Posso
Abstract	Can reparations for victims of human rights violations help rebuild lives? We estimate the effects of reparations across the life cycle, leveraging variation induced by Colombia’s program for victims of the internal armed conflict. The reparations consist of large one-off, lump-sum payments of up to 10,000 USD (PPP 26,000 USD) and represent, on average, three times recipients’ annual household income. We link comprehensive national administrative panel microdata and measure numerous individual- and household-level outcomes, including work and living standards, health care utilization, and intergenerational impacts on victims’ children. We exploit the staggered rollout of reparation payouts and the unexpected timing of their receipt using event study approaches and document three main sets of results. First, reparations cause an immediate decrease in the probability of formal employment driven by shifts out of low-pay, high-risk, salaried jobs. Three years after receipt, victims have higher wages and are more likely to own an active business. Second, reparations cause an economically meaningful decrease in health care utilization, consistent with improved health thanks to better working and living conditions. Third, reparations increase high school test scores and college attendance rates of victims’ children. We conclude that the large transfers of money provided by reparations allow households to make fundamental investments, narrow the gaps formed due to conflict, and appear to be an effective policy tool to promote recovery and development.
Fecha	18 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ José Morales-Arilla | Autocrats in crisis mode: Strategic favoritism during economic shocks

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Conferencista	José Morales-Arilla, Harvard University
Abstract	Do autocrats favor their supporters during economic shocks? I introduce a model of redistribution and regime stability that shows how in-group favors can be a strategic response to economic downturns. The model predicts that, as economic shocks worsen, autocrats may favor their supporters and confront opposition protests to save on appeasement costs. I test the model's main results in two empirical settings. First, I focus on the Venezuelan blackouts of 2019. Consistent with the model, the Maduro regime was more likely to exempt regime-supporting regions affected by the blackout from later power rationing. Moreover, blackout-induced protests were limited to opposition-leaning regions. I then focus on negative rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts magnify differences in development, protests and state-coercion outcomes in favor of leaders' home regions.
Fecha	17 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Rodrigo Rodimiro | Robot Adoption, Organizational Capital and the Productivity Paradox

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Conferencista	Rodrigo Rodimiro, Georgetown University
Abstract	Major technological changes have come with an adjustment period of stagnant productivity before the economy operates at its full potential. The mechanism of this adoption process is still not well understood. Using event studies, I document that productivity increases with a five-year lag after the adoption of industrial robots in Brazilian local labor markets. Combining employer-employee matched data with a novel measure of robot adoption, I provide first evidence of establishment-level labor reorganization and organizational capital depreciation induced by the automation process. During the five years after adoption, labor switching across occupations increases within firms, moving from production to support activities. I show that firms’ organizational capital measured by workers’ firm-occupation-specific experience depreciates and then slowly re-accumulates. When these processes stop, the productivity gains reach their maximum. I use these results to estimate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous robot adoption, and organizational capital accumulation. The model accounts for the productivity paradox, the diffusion of industrial robots, and the change in the aggregate skill demand. The model highlights the role of organizational costs accompanying the adoption of new technologies. I illustrate its usefulness by using it to characterize the implications of the “innovator’s dilemma.”
Fecha	14 de enero de 2022
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Hernando Zuleta | The Role of the Informal Sector in the COVID Crisis: A Cushion or an Amplifier?

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Conferencista	Hernando Zuleta, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Andrés Zambrano, David Montoya, Andrés Álvarez
Abstract	Labor informality, common in Latin American economies, is both a cause of low productivity and vulnerability, and a buffer that mitigates job destruction after negative shocks. In the current circumstances, informality is also associated with a higher risk of contagion, thus reducing the willingness of households to get involved in informal activities. To understand and quantify these mechanisms, we propose an SIR model featuring a dual labor market, where households imperfectly substitute informal and formal consumption, and calibrate it to Colombian and Peruvian data. Considering a higher risk of contagion from the informal sector doubles the size of the recession, whereas having less rigidities in markets allows for a faster recovery. Targeting transfers and using selective lockdowns have a similar epidemiological effect as its non-targeted counterparts, but at a lower economic cost. The paper also casts light on the inconvenience of long lockdowns.
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Fecha	10 de diciembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Diana Van Patten | Voting on a Trade Agreement: Firm Networks and Attitudes Towards Openness

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Conferencista	Diana Van Patten, Yale University's School of Management
Coautor	Esteban Méndez-Chacón (Banco Central de Costa Rica)
Abstract	This paper exploits a natural experiment to study the extent to which attitudes towards trade reflect economic fundamentals. In 2007, Costa Rica was the first developing country to put a free trade agreement (FTA) to a national referendum; with only one question on the ballot, 60% of Costa Rican adult citizens casted a vote on whether they wanted a trade agreement (CAFTA-DR) to be ratified, or not. We use disaggregated results of the referendum and match these results with detailed employer-employee data, firm customs and balance-sheet data, firm-to-firm transactions data, and data on household composition and expenditures. We document that a firm’s exposure to the FTA significantly influences the attitudes of its employees towards trade policy. We find that high-skilled workers are, on average, more likely to be in favor of the free trade agreement, and that within-industry heterogeneity is key in explaining votes, as compared with sector exposure. We find a role for local labor market competition in explaining vote shares, in particular for households employed in non-tradable sectors. Finally, we compare the importance of the earnings channel with respect to the expenditures channel, and document that both are salient in explaining voting behavior.
Fecha	3 de diciembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Andrés Moya | Promoting maternal mental health and early childhood development in communities exposed to violence in Colombia

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Conferencista	Andrés Moya, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Arturo Harker & María José Torres (Uniandes), Alicia Lieberman & Vilma Reyes (UCSF)
Abstract	Protecting caregivers and children from effects of violence, toxic stress, and deficits in maternal care is a key challenge in fragile and conflict-affected settings. In this paper we report the results from a randomized trial of Semillas de Apego, a community-based psychosocial model for mothers of young children among families affected by violence and forced displacement. The model aims to promote maternal mental health as an outcome itself but also as a pathway to foster the healthy child-mother emotional bonds and early childhood development. We implemented the model in Tumaco, Colombia a municipality torn by conflict and forced displacement and randomized the model across 18 Early Childhood Development Centers that serve vulnerable communities. Over 4 sequential cohorts, 1,372 caregivers participated in the evaluation, with 714 assigned to the treatment group and 662 to control. 83 percent of the participants had been directly victimized while 57 percent had been forcefully displaced by violence. Group-sessions were led by community members who did not have formal training or experience in psychosocial models but who were trained and supervised for this purpose. At the 8-month follow-up, we find positive impacts on the three core dimensions of the model: improvements of 0.14 standard deviations (sd) in a maternal mental health index; 0.24 sd in an index of child-mother interactions, and 0.19 sd in an early childhood development index. Despite this progress, we also find that the pandemic had a negative toll on maternal mental health and parenting stress regardless of the treatment status. Our findings speak to the need and feasibility of implementing quality psychosocial programs in fragile and conflict-affected settings but also on the importance of designing comprehensive strategies that address the different social and economic determinants of mental health.
Fecha	26 de noviembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas | COVID-19 and SME Failures

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Conferencista	Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, University of California, Berkeley
Coautores	Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nick Sander
Abstract	We estimate the impact of COVID-19 on business failures for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) using firm-level data in seventeen countries. Absent government support, the failure rate of SMEs would have increased by 9.1 percentage points, representing 4.6 percent of private sector employment. Resulting non-performing loans are modest, decreasing the riskweighted common equity Tier-1 capital ratio from 14.1 to 12 percent. Government support limited to “at-risk” firms would have low fiscal costs (0.8% of GDP). Less targeted policies such as government guaranteed loans are similarly effective, but substantially more expensive, with disbursed funds representing up to 5.8% of GDP.
Fecha	19 de noviembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Andrea Velásquez | Temperature Shocks, Labor Markets and Migratory Decisions in El Salvador

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Conferencista	Andrea Velásquez, University of Colorado Denver
Coautores	Ana Maria Ibáñez, Juliana Quigua, Jimena Romero
Abstract	The inflow of migrants from El Salvador to the United States has increased persistently since 1980. In spite of the intensification of immigration policies in the U.S. in the last decades, by 2017, 25% of people born in El Salvador were international migrants. This paper shows that the temperature shocks the country has suffered in the last decade have been an important push-factor. We find that temperature shocks negatively affected both agricultural production in El Salvador and the labor market of agricultural workers. Labor markets act as a transmission mechanism of the negative impact of weather shocks on agricultural workers, who react by migrating internationally or switching to the non-agricultural sector. Moreover, we find that access to remittances and migrant networks help to alleviate the negative effects on production caused by high temperatures and therefore on the need to rely on international migration. Our results suggest that, despite the current anti-immigrant political climate, high temperatures have been an important driver of rising international migration from El Salvador, and highlight that there should be a global responsibility relative to the consequences of climate change.
Fecha	12 de noviembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Nathan Nunn | Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

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Conferencista	Nathan Nunn, Harvard University and CIFAR
Coautor	Eoin F. McGuirk (Tufts University)
Abstract	We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock – i.e., transhumant pastoralists – in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming in the wet season and animal grazing in the dry season. Droughts can disrupt this arrangement by inducing pastoral groups to migrate to agricultural lands before the harvest, causing conflict to emerge. We examine this hypothesis by combining ethnographic information on the traditional locations of transhumant pastoralists and sedentary agriculturalists with high-resolution data on the location and timing of rainfall and violent conflict events in Africa from 1989–2018. We show that droughts in the territory of transhumant pastoralists lead to conflict in neighboring areas. Consistent with the hypothesis, these conflict events are concentrated in agricultural areas; they occur during the wet season and not the dry season; and they are due to rainfall’s impact on plant biomass growth. This mechanism explains a sizable proportion of conflict events in Africa, particularly civil conflicts and religious-extremist attacks. We find that the effects are muted in the presence of irrigation aid projects, but not in the presence of other forms of foreign aid.
Fecha	5 de noviembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ María Orduz | The Effect of Educational Expenditure on Academic Performance

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Conferencista	María Orduz, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This article finnds the effect and mechanisms that Central Government's spending in education has on academic performance, considering a Colombian reform to the educational system as a quasi-natural experiment. The reform generated an exogenous change in the amount of public school spending that each municipality received from the Central Government. To find the causal effect of national expenditure on education in academic results, I use the variation of public school expenditure, the standardized test results for Saber11, and the probability of entering higher education between 2003 and 2013. I use an instrumental variable model and conclude that an increase in spending per student during her academic life of one million pesos (270 USD) generates an improvement of 0.2 standard deviations in the total test score, 0.25 standard deviations in math, and 0.1 in language scores. It also has a positive effect of 3.3 percentual points in the probability of entering higher education. I find that there is significant heterogeneity among centralized and decentralized municipalities in the context of asymmetric decentralization. Furthermore, I find that the students per teacher's ratio, teacher's salaries, and teaching material are relevant mechanisms to explain these effects.
Fecha	3 de noviembre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Juliana Helo | The unintended environmental effect of a climate change adaptation strategy: evidence from the Colombian coffee sector

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Conferencista	Juliana Helo, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper analyzes the environmental effects of an adaptation policy intended to protect farmers from extreme weather events. We use the case of the Colombian coffee sector, which was severely affected by ENSO-La Niña extreme rainfall events and subsequent pest-proliferation during 2010 - 2011. In response, the National Federation of Coffee Growers (NFCG) changed its policy to protect farmers from future weather shocks by conditioning renewal credits to the use of pest-resistant seeds. We exploit the timing of the policy, and a novel dataset that includes the census of coffee plots, their characteristics, production systems, seed variety, among others, from 2006-2014, matched with satellite tree cover data to analyze its environmental effect. We find that conditioning renewal credits on a change in seeds diminishes tree cover on treated coffee growers by 370 squared metes, equivalent to 2% of the average farm size in our sample. Tree cover is not only important to protect crops from rising temperatures, but also to maintain soil fertility, and control erosion. We calculate that this average loss in tree coverage on treated farms translates to a release of 2,000 tons of carbon.
Fecha	29 de octubre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Joao Ayres | Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations

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Conferencista	Joao Ayres, Research Department Inter-American Development Bank
Coautores	Gaston Navarro (Federal Reserve Board), Juan Pablo Nicolini (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella), y Pedro Teles (Banco de Portugal, Catolica Lisbon SBE, and CEPR)
Abstract	We explore quantitatively the possibility of multiple equilibria in a model of sovereign debt crises. The source of multiplicity is the one identified by Calvo (1988). This type of multiplicity has been at the heart of the policy debate through the European sovereign debt crisis. Key for multiplicity in the model is a stochastic process for output featuring long periods of either high or low growth. We calibrate the output process in the model using data for southern European countries that were exposed to the debt crisis. We also calibrate the model to Brazil and Argentina. We find that expectations-driven sovereign debt crises are empirically plausible, but only in periods of stagnation. Multiplicity is state dependent: in periods of stagnation and for intermediate levels of debt, interest rates may be high for reasons unrelated to fundamentals.
Fecha	22 de octubre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Boyoung Seo | How Do National Firms Respond to Local Cost Shocks?

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Conferencista	Boyoung Seo, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy at Kelley School of Business, Indiana University
Coautores	R. Andrew Butters, DanielW. Sacks
Abstract	Recent research shows prices are insensitive to local demand conditions because national chains charge geographically uniform prices. We examine the price response to local cost shocks, including 68 excise tax changes, 76 sales tax changes, and other geographically-based cost differences, using data on 35,151 retail stores in 143 multistate chains. We find local cost shocks are passed-through to local prices, with no spillovers to unaffected stores in otherwise affected chains, and at similar rates for national and local chains. Firms adjust local prices according to local cost changes, suggesting retailers respond asymmetrically to local cost and demand shocks.
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Fecha	15 de octubre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Sandra Rozo | Life Out of the Shadows: Impacts of Amnesties in Migrant’s Life

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Conferencista	Sandra Rozo, World Bank
Coautores	Ana María Ibáñez, Andrés Moya, María Adelaida Ortega, Marisol Rodríguez Chatruc
Abstract	What are the impacts of regularization on migrant’s lives? This study examines the effects of the PEP visa, an opportunity for regularization for half a million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia. We collect a survey of 3,455 migrant families and leverage four identification strategies to assess the effects of the program in migrant’s life outcomes. Causal effects are estimated using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that compares the wellbeing of migrants who arrived to Colombia close to June 8th, 2018 (eligible for the program) and those who arrived later (not eligible). The results indicate that migrants with a PEP visa have 18% and 24.5% higher consumption and income per capita relative to the other migrants. Migrants with a PEP visa also have more access to safety nets and financial services, better labor conditions, less food insecurity, are more integrated to the Colombian society, and showed more resilience to the COVID-19 crisis. The program had negligible effects on migrant’s labor formalization.
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Fecha	8 de octubre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Victoria Nuguer | Domestic Barriers to Entry and External Vulnerability in Emerging Economies

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Conferencista	Victoria Nuguer, Inter-American Development Bank (IADB)
Coautores	Leonardo Barreto y Alan Finkelstein Shapiro
Abstract	Emerging economies (EMEs) exhibit high regulatory barriers to firm entry, where the latter are associated with reduced access to credit markets. Reforms that reduce firm-creation costs have therefore become a key policy priority. At the same time, access to domestic credit markets can expose EME firms to external financial shocks that propagate to EMEs via the banking system, such as those experienced during the Global Financial Crisis. We present new VAR evidence showing that in response to adverse shocks to the US banking system, EMEs with low firm-creation costs exhibit smaller contractions and earlier recoveries in cross-border bank flows, domestic bank credit, and GDP compared to EMEs with high firm-creation costs. A two-country model with banking frictions, cross-border bank flows, and endogenous firm entry can successfully explain this evidence, and suggests that greater EME firm participation in domestic credit markets need not lead to greater macro and financial volatility.
Fecha	1 de octubre de 2021
Hora	11:00 a.m.

+ Juanita González | The Value of Venture Capital Connections

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Conferencista	Juanita González, London School of Economics (LSE)
Coautores	Robyn Klingler-Vidra, Su Wang y Xiang Yin
Fecha	24 de septiembre de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Julieta Caunedo | Mechanizing Agriculture

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Conferencista	Julieta Caunedo, Cornell University
Coautor	Namrata Kala
Abstract	Economic activity in developing countries is labor-intensive, low-scale, and fam- ily run, with substantial family managerial time spent supervising hired labor. We use a randomized control trial that subsidizes access to rental equipment markets to study the impact of the adoption of mechanized practices on labor demand, productivity and managerial span of control. The intervention induces greater mechanization in the upstream production stage, and labor savings con- centrated in downstream, non-mechanized stages. The reduction in worker su- pervision needs increases the span of control and allows households to increase non-agricultural income. We use the experimental elasticities to estimate a struc- tural model where farmers make labor supply decisions in the family enterprise and outside of it. The consumption-equivalent welfare from the intervention amounts to 0.9%. The model provides structural estimates of the marginal re- turn to capital at 8.8%, and the shadow value of family labor, 20% below their outside option in non-agriculture.
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Fecha	17 de septiembre de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Juliana Salomao | Why is Dollar Debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru

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Conferencista	Juliana Salomao, University of Minnesota
Coautores	Bryan Gutierrez, Victoria Ivashina
Abstract	In emerging markets, a significant share of corporate loans are denominated in dollars. Using novel data that includes loan-level currency and the cost of credit, in addition to several other transaction[1]level characteristics, we re-examine the reasons behind dollar credit popularity. We find that a dollar[1]denominated loan has an interest rate that is 2 percentage points lower per year than a loan in local currency. Expectations of exchange rate movements do not explain this difference. We show that this interest rate differential for lending rates is closely matched by the differential in the deposit market. Our results suggest that the preference for dollar loans is rooted in the local depositors preference for dollar savings, and a banking sector that is strongly incentivized to closely match its foreign-currency assets and liabilities. Cross-borrower variation points to competitive pressure among banks to explain the significant pass-through of this differential.
Fecha	10 de septiembre de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Juan Sebastián Galán | The Really Existing Colombian State: A Perspective

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Conferencista	Juan Sebastián Galán, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	María A. Bautista y James A. Robinson (University of Chicago)
Abstract	This paper studies Colombian paramilitarism as a natural experiment to understand the logic of the really existing Colombian state. In contrast to stylized dichotomies of different types of states (ie: Weberian “rational-legal” vs. patrimonial), we develop a model where the Weberian core allows for the self-organization of the non-Weberian periphery in spatial equilibrium. Using novel data on the organization of paramilitary groups, preliminary empirical results suggest the comparative statics of this equilibrium can be very perverse - when the core moves into the periphery it provides fewer public goods with more violence and illegality, than when the periphery self-organizes outside the scope of the state.
Fecha	3 de septiembre de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Pascual Restrepo | Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality

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Conferencista	Pascual Restrepo, Boston University
Coautor	Daron Acemoglu
Abstract	We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across a number of industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from employment opportunities for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education differentials between 1980 and 2016. Our task displacement variable captures the effects of automation technologies (and to a lesser degree offshoring) rather than those of rising market power, markups or deunionization, which themselves do not appear to play a major role in US wage inequality. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of task displacement (which include induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects as tasks are reallocated across different groups). Our quantitative evaluation based on this methodology explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand-in-hand with modest productivity gains.
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Fecha	27 de agosto de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria | The Consequences of Bretton Woods Impediments to International Capital Mobility and the Value of Geopolitical Stability

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Conferencista	Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Coautores	Lee E. Ohanian, Diana Van Patten, Mark L. J. Wright
Abstract	This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a threeregion world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led to much higher welfare for the rest of the world, moderately higher welfare for Europe, but much lower welfare for the U.S. We interpret the large U.S. welfare loss as an estimate of the implicit value to the U.S. of preventing capital flight from other countries and thus promoting economic and political stability in ally and developing countries.
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Fecha	20 de agosto de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ José Alberto Guerra | Train to Opportunity: The Effect of Infrastructure on Intergenerational Mobility

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Conferencista	José Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Julián Costas-Fernández (UCL), Myra Mohnen (University of Ottawa and University of Essex)
Abstract	Can transport infrastructure promote long-term labour opportunities and break the occupation tie between parents and their children? This paper estimates the causal effect of access to the railroad network on intergenerational occupation mobility in nineteenth century England and Wales. We create a new dataset of father and son pairs by linking individuals across the full-population censuses of 1851, 1881 and 1911. By geolocating individuals down to the street level, we measure access to the railroad network using the proximity to the nearest train station. To address the non-random access to the railroad network, we create a dynamic hypothetical railroad based solely on geographic cost consideration. We find that sons who grew up one standard devi- ation (roughly 5 km) closer to the train station were 6 percentage points more likely to work in a different occupation than their father and 5 percentage points more likely to be upward mobile. The majority of the effects are driven by changes in local labour opportunities.
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Fecha	13 de agosto de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ María del Pilar López-Uribe | On the agrarian origins of civil conflict in Colombia

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Conferencista	María del Pilar López-Uribe, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Fabio Sánchez (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	We investigate the impact of land dispossession of peasants on the origin of the civil conflict in Colombia. Using a matching-pair instrumental variable approach, we show that the historical dispossession of peasants’ lands by landlords that led to the rise of peasant grievances is associated with the presence of the rural guerrilla movement -The Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC)- during the first stage of the Colombian civil conflict (1974-1985). This study exploits variation in floods to identify how peasants’ land dispossessions during the export boom (1914-1946) determine the rise of rural guerrilla movements and the consolidation of their rebel activities. Using a novel municipal-level data set on natural disasters and land dispossession, the study documents that municipalities experiencing floods during the years 1914-1946 were substantially more likely to have land dispossession than municipalities where floods was not severe. Floods reduced temporarily the conditions of the land and its value, facilitating the dispossession of the peasants of their lands by large landowners. We propose two mechanisms through which previous land dispossession facilitated the emergence of rebel armed groups. On the one hand, exposure to previous events of violence gave military training and access to weapons and military experience to the rural population that likely emboldened the formation of rebel groups. On the other hand, the ideological cohesion stemming from radical liberals and communists exacerbated the grievances and helped the emergence of rebel armed groups.
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Fecha	4 de junio de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Federico Huneeus | Earnings Inequality in Production Networks

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Conferencista	Federico Huneeus, Central Bank of Chile
Coautores	Kory Kroft, Kevin Lim
Abstract	This paper investigates the importance of firm-to-firm production network linkages for earnings inequality. We develop a quantitative model in which heterogeneous firms hire workers of different abilities in an imperfectly competitive labor market and source intermediates from heterogeneous suppliers in a production network. The model delivers an earnings equation with a firm-specific wage premium that depends endogenously on both firm productivities and firm-to-firm linkages in the production network. We establish identification of the model parameters and estimate them using linked employer-employee and firm-to-firm transactions data from Chile. Counterfactual simulations using our estimated model show that heterogeneity in network linkages explains 21% of log earnings variance, while passthrough of productivity shocks via network linkages explains between 20-25% of earnings volatility. We also examine the effects of a minimum wage policy and find strong spillover effects to worker earnings above the wage floor, with substitution of materials for labor explaining around 40% of these effects.
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Fecha	28 de mayo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Laura Castillo-Martínez | Sudden Stops, Productivity, and the Exchange Rate

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Conferencista	Laura Castillo-Martínez, Duke University
Abstract	Following a sudden stop, real exchange rates can adjust through a nominal exchange rate depreciation, lower domestic prices, or a combination of both. This paper makes three contributions to understand how the type of adjustment shapes the response of macroeconomic variables, in particular productivity, to such an episode. First, using Spanish micro data during the two episodes, it documents that in a currency union unproductive firms exit more than in a floating regime. Second, it proposes a small open economy DSGE model featuring firm selection, variable markups and elastic labor supply to rationalize this finding. The model nests three mechanisms through which a sudden stop affects productivity: a pro-competitive, a cost, and a demand channel. While only the former operates when the nominal exchange rate adjusts, all three are active under a currency union. The model delivers general conditions under which the positive impact of the demand channel on productivity dominates. Third, it validates the model’s aggregate predictions against a wider set of economies. In particular, it shows that the decline in productivity after a sudden stop is increasing in the flexibility of the exchange rate.
Documento
Fecha	21 de mayo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Matthew O. Jackson | The Role of Referrals in Immobility, Inequality, and Inefficiency in Labor Markets

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Matthew O. Jackson, Stanford University
Coautores	Lukas Bolte, Nicole Immorlica
Abstract	We study the consequences of job markets’ heavy reliance on referrals. Referrals screen candidates and lead to better matches and increased productivity, but disadvantage job-seekers who have few or no connections to employed workers, leading to increased inequality. Coupled with homophily, referrals also lead that group to have relatively low future employment as well. We identify conditions under which distributing referrals more evenly across a population no only reduces inequality, but also improves future productivity and economic mobility. We use the model to examine optimal policies, showing that one-time affirmative action policies involve short-run production losses, but lead to long-term improvements in equality, mobility, and productivity due to induced changes in future referrals. We also examine how the possibility of firing workers changes the effects of referrals.
Archivo	Ver documento
Fecha	14 de mayo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Rocio Madera | “Urban Welfare: Tourism in Barcelona”

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Rocio Madera, SMU Department of Economics
Coautores	Treb Allen (Dartmouth), Simon Fuchs (Atlanta Fed), Sharat Ganapati (Georgetown), Alberto Graziano (Caixabank Research) y Judit Montoriol-Garriga (Caixabank Research)
Abstract	We develop a simple methodology to estimate the heterogeneous welfare effects of any small shock to residents within a city. The methodology relies only on modest assumptions regarding residents’ choice of where to consume and work and delivers an expression that shows that the welfare elasticity to any small shock can be written as a function of (1) the spatial patterns of consumption and income; and (2) the price and wage effects of the shock. We then apply this methodology to ask the question: Is tourism good for locals? Using detailed spatial data on expenditure and income patterns of residents in Barcelona, we show that plausibly exogenous shifts in tourist expenditure due to compositional differences in their country of origin across time and over space in the city crowds out local expenditure by increasing prices but partially compensates through increases in wages. The incidence of the tourism shock, however, is highly heterogeneous across the city, with inner city residents bearing the the largest welfare losses and peripheral residents enjoying the greatest welfare gains.
Fecha	7 de mayo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Elisa Belfiori | Política climática sin un impuesto al carbono: ¿qué alternativas hay?

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Elisa Belfiori, Professor and Director of Undergraduate Studies at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, School of Business
Coautor	Armon Rezai (Department of Socio-Economics, WU, Vienna, Austria)
Abstract	Is there an optimal alternative to a global carbon tax? We study this question in a standard neoclassical growth model with a carbon emissions externality using both the Pigouvian and Ramsey motives for taxation. We show that the social optimum is implementable with taxes widely used in countries worldwide – such as consumption, energy, income taxes – and no carbon taxation. We theoretically characterize and quantitatively estimate the optimal tax rates, and we find that they are well within existing tax rates. We argue that traditional taxes can play a central role in tackling the climate problem as policymakers seem reluctant to introduce a carbon tax and are often keener on changing existing tax rates.
Fecha	30 de abril de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Fabio Sánchez | Un nuevo comienzo: impacto del Programa Vivienda Gratuita sobre las condiciones de vida de los hogares beneficiarios

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Adriana Camacho González y Jorge Caputo Leyva (Uniandes)
Abstract	En este trabajo evaluamos el impacto del Programa Vivienda Gratuita (PVG) sobre las condiciones de vida, de bienestar y de habitabilidad de los hogares beneficiados. Este programa fue una iniciativa del Gobierno colombiano iniciada em 2012 para entregar gratuitamente viviendas nuevas de interés prioritario (VIP) a los hogares más vulnerables del país. Para estimar impactos del programa de manera causal, el presente trabajo aprovecha que el 39% de los beneficiarios del programa fueron seleccionados mediante sorteos de vivienda. Los resultados señalan que el programa cumple con su objetivo en la reducción del déficit cualitativo, cuantitativo y habitacional de vivienda. En adición, los beneficiarios reportan tener mayores niveles de satisfacción con su vida y con su entorno y participan más en organizaciones comunitarias. Por otro lado, los beneficiarios del PVG reducen la probabilidad de ser considerados como pobres dentro de la medición del Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional. Adicionalmente, como impactos de orden superior, el presente trabajo encuentra que los beneficiarios del PVG tienen mayores ingresos laborales, particularmente las mujeres. Simultáneamente, se encuentra que existe una reorganización de los gastos al interior de los hogares beneficiarios: disminuye el gasto en arriendo y aumentan los gastos en servicios públicos, alimentación, educación, salud, transporte e impuesto predial. De igual forma, los hogares beneficiarios del programa tienen una mayor probabilidad de adquirir bienes durables como neveras, lavadoras, computadoras y motos, así como ahorrar en efectivo. Finalmente, se encuentra que los niños y las niñas pertenecientes a los hogares beneficiarios tienen menor riesgo de ausencia y deserción escolares. El principal mecanismo que explica estos resultados radica en que los beneficiarios del programa se relocalizan en lugares donde existe una mayor provisión de bienes públicos y más cercanía a servicios complementarios (como jardines, escuelas, hospitales, supermercados o bancos), así como una mayor actividad económica.
Fecha	23 de abril de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Francesco Bogliacino | The Promised Land: The Effects of the Land Restitution Program in Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Francesco Bogliacino, Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Coautores	Christian Posso y Juanita Villaveces
Abstract	We estimate the causal effect of the Colombian land restitution program on access to microcredit for agriculture. We use the timing of the restitution as the source of identification in an event study approach. Using administrative data from the program and all formal credit transactions, we show a significant increase in access to agricultural microcredit. The effects are stronger two years after the restitution when individuals acquire full property rights. Impacts are mainly driven by loans through the Agrarian Bank and supported by guarantees from the Agricultural Guarantee Fund, which are institutions specifically designed to promote investment in agriculture.
Fecha	16 de abril de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Michael Weintraub | Mano Dura: An Experimental Evaluation of Military Policing in Cali, Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Michael Weintraub, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Robert A. Blair
Abstract	Governments across the developing world rely on their armed forces for domestic policing operations. Advocates of these “mano dura” (iron fist) policies view them as necessary to control crime, while detractors claim they undermine human rights. We experimentally evaluate a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, the country’s third largest city and among its most violent. The intervention involved recurring, intensive military patrols targeting crime hot spots, randomly assigned at the city block level. Using administrative crime and human rights data, surveys, a conjoint survey experiment, a costly behavioral measure, qualitative interviews, and firsthand observations from civilian monitors, we find some suggestive evidence that military policing reduces crime, but only on days and times when soldiers are physically present on the streets. Despite these temporally circumscribed effects, we find strong evidence of increased demand for more aggressive military involvement in policing and other aspects of governance, including increased support for military coups. We also find some suggestive evidence of increased human rights abuses committed by police officers in particular. Finally, we observe a large, significant, and lasting increase in citizens’ reports of witnessing crime, and a correspondingly large, significant, and lasting increase in their willingness to report crimes to the authorities. We interpret this as evidence of increased vigilance by citizens and increased co-production of security not just between the military and the police, but between civilians and the authorities as well.
Fecha	9 de abril de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Brenda Samaniego de la Parra | The Labor Market Effects of Part-Time Contributions to Social Security: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, University of California at Santa Cruz
Coautores	Andrea Otero Cortés y Leonardo Morales
Abstract	In this paper, we estimate the effects of a labor market flexibilization policy that allowed part-time contributions to the social security system in Colombia, a country with high levels of informality. We evaluate the impact of the reform along various margins, with a special focus on the effects on formal employment since increasing formality was among the reform’s main goals. Using household survey data, we find that the reform increased the probability of new contributions to the social security system within the population targeted by the reform: low-wage, part-time workers. Then, using administrative data and exploiting cross-city and industry variation in take-up, we argue that the reform is associated with a 1.6 percent increase in formal employment. This increase is due to a sharp increase in full-time and part-time formal job creation. We find a small negative effect on mean wages (0.3% decline), consistent with a rise in the use of low-skill, part-time work.
Fecha	26 de marzo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Oskar Nupia | Heat Affects Social Choice: Evidence from Colombia’s 2016 Peace Plebiscite

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Oskar Nupia, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Fernando Carriazo, Jorge H. García
Abstract	It is a well-established fact that heat exacerbates irritability and anger, which in turns affects human behavior. Using municipality-level data for the 2016 Plebiscite in Colombia that sought to ratify the Peace Agreement between the state and the country’s main guerilla group, we present evidence that heat shocks affected voters’ behavior. We find that those municipalities exposed to a heat shock during plebiscite day had a higher vote share against the Agreement. To understand the mechanisms behind this result, we exploit municipality-level information on both the political context and the exposition to the most divisive elements of the Agreement. The impact of heat on the plebiscite results was mediated by high exposure to violence, low support for the main opposition party of the Peace Agreement (discontent with the ruling government), and the presence of coca crops.
Fecha	19 de marzo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan | The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of Maryland
Coautores	Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sevcan Yesiltas¸ and Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Abstract	COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economicepidemiological model of international production and trade networks and calibrate the model to 65 countries. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.
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Fecha	12 de marzo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Juan Sebastián Galán | Colonial Legal institutions and Economic Development in Mexico

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Juan Sebastián Galán, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper examines the persistent effects of colonial legal institutions (or Real Audiencia) in Mexico. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I find that households in regions exposed to stronger colonial courts exhibit higher historical and contemporary economic prosperity. In contrast to conventional wisdom, court records suggest that dispute resolution made property rights more secure for native populations and discouraged agrarian conflicts after Independence. Consistent with recent models of state formation, I document this crowded in bureaucratic and fiscal institutions over the long-run.
Fecha	5 de marzo de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Hernando Zuleta | Natural Resources and Factor Shares

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Hernando Zuleta, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Andrés Octavio Dávila, Manuel Fernández (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	We analyze the effect of a natural resource boom on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we consider a simple theoretical model with three sectors: tradable, non-tradable, and natural resources, and four factors of production: raw labor, human capital, natural resources, and physical capital. According to the theory, a natural resource boom generates a reallocation of factors from tradable sectors to non-tradable sectors. Consequently, the relative share of the factors in which non-tradable production is more intensive grows, while the relative share of the factors in which tradable production is more intensive falls. We also test the model using a data sample of 50 countries between 1995 and 2010. To address possible endogeneity issues, we exploit the cross-country variation in the exposure to China's increase in demand for commodities in the late 1990s and 2000s as an instrument for the price of natural resources. We find that a resource boom negatively affects the human capital to raw labor relative share, while the aggregate labor to physical capital relative share remains unchanged. These results suggest that a natural resource boom generates an attenuation effect on the increasing trend of the human capital to raw labor relative share.
Fecha	26 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Neil Thakral | Anticipation and Consumption

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Neil Thakral, Brown University
Abstract	This paper introduces a model of how the timing of information affects consumption decisions and tests its predictions in both developed and developing contexts. In our model, consumers form intertemporal plans and experience utility from anticipating future consumption. The model predicts excess sensitivity of spending to receiving a windfall, with smaller spending responses when there is more time to anticipate receiving the payment. The prediction that waiting leads to more patient decisions does not depend on whether consumers are liquidity constrained. Using Nielsen Consumer Panel data, we find higher marginal propensities to spend for households scheduled to receive the 2008 Economic Stimulus Payments sooner. Using data from randomized experiments in Kenya and Malawi, we find higher savings and assets among households scheduled to wait longer before receiving lump-sum unconditional cash transfers. Finally, we discuss existing evidence on how consumption responds to gains, losses, and news in light of our model.
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Fecha	19 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Cristhian Seminario-Amez | Informal Rungs on the Job Ladder: Theory and Evidence from Brazil

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Cristhian Seminario-Amez, University of Chicago
Abstract	This paper studies a labor market where heterogeneous workers climb a job ladder with informal and formal rungs. In this environment, the incidence of informal jobs in a worker's career is a function of her skill level and the economy's history of aggregate states. I estimate the model in Brazilian labor-force survey data, and show it successfully reproduces the observed heterogeneity and dynamics around informality. In equilibrium, informal jobs are less productive and are subject to higher layoff risk than their formal counterparts. However, workers rely on informal contracts not only to smooth transitions between employment and non-employment, but also to advance their careers through moves within and between jobs. According to the model, stronger enforcement of penalties against informal matches (i) increases unemployment and self-employment, (ii) dampens job-to-job transitions, (iii) reduces total output, and (iv) disproportionately hurts the low skilled.
Fecha	16 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Rodrigo Martinez-Mazza | "Mom, Dad: I'm staying". Initial labor market conditions, housing markets, and welfare

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Rodrigo Martinez-Mazza, Universidad de Barcelona
Abstract	Young individuals are currently living with their parents more than at any other point in time, while also spending more on housing. In this paper, I first show how labor market entry conditions affect housing tenure and affordability in the long term, by using the unemployment rate at the time of graduation as an exogenous shock to income. I perform this analysis across Europe for the last 25 years. Results indicate that a 1 pp increase in the unemployment rate at the time of graduation leads, one year after, to (1) a 1.50 pp increase in the probability of living with parents, (2) a 1.02 pp decrease in the probability of home-ownership and 0.45 pp decrease in renting, and (3) worse affordability. Second, I develop an OLG model to link income shocks for young agents with changes in housing tenure at the aggregate level. I allow for an outside option for landlords which can introduce rigidity into the rental market. Results show that if rental markets are rigid, an income shock to young agents will translate into a larger share of them living with their parents, worse affordability, and larger welfare losses. Finally, I perform a policy exercise based on the French housing aid system. I show that housing aid policies can help to recover welfare losses for young agents, by enabling them to afford to rent. Recognizing the right scenario for the implementation of these policies is key to ensure welfare gains concentrate on the targeted population.
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Fecha	12 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman | Multi-establishment Firms, Pricing and the Propagation of Local Shocks: Evidence from US Retail

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract	I study whether and how retail chains and their geographic distribution of stores contribute to the propagation of shocks across regions in the United States. Linking detailed store scanner micro-data to a county-level house price dataset for the period of the Great Recession, I investigate the spread of house-price induced local shocks through the networks of retail chains. My main empirical finding is that county-level prices are sensitive to shocks in distant counties that happen to be served by the same retail chains. A 10% drop in house prices in other counties that are served by the same retailers leads, on average, to a 1.4% decline in the local consumer retail price index. My results hold after conditioning on trade relationships due to geographic proximity. In fact, I document that once the retail chains' networks are controlled for, there is no additional role for propagation of shocks across nearby regions. Finally, while the network of retail chains is an important determinant of the effect local shocks have on consumer prices, it does not affect wages in distant regions, which suggests that the network of retail chains affects consumers' real income. I rationalize the reduced-form estimates in a model in which retail chains vary prices uniformly across their stores as a function of changes in market demand that they face at the (aggregate) chain level. I find that the calibrated model with uniform pricing can fully account for the reduced-form effects. Counterfactual analysis shows that uniform pricing and the geographic distribution of retail chains reduced cross-county dispersion in inflation by 40% during the Great Recession, benefiting consumers from low-income counties that were less exposed to drops in local house prices.
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Fecha	11 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Leonardo Elias | Capital Flows and the Real Effects of Corporate Rollover Risk

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Leonardo Elias, MIT Sloan
Abstract	What are the real costs of reversals in international capital flows? In this paper, I exploit plausibly exogenous variation in firms' exposure to rollover risk to identify a causal liquidity channel at play during sudden stop episodes. Using a panel of firms across 39 countries, I show that firms with higher exposure (as measured by the share of long-term debt maturing over the next year) reduce investment ten percentage points more than non-exposed firms following sudden stops in capital flows. The impact is persistent: exposed firms experience lower investment, lower employment and lower assets than non-exposed firms even three years after the initial shock. In robustness tests, I show that the results are specific to sudden stop episodes in that they do not hold in periods without sudden stops, and they hold across sudden stop episodes regardless of whether the sudden stop takes place during large economic contractions.
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Fecha	9 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Umberto Muratori | "Knowledge Diffusion, Markups, and Cohorts of Firms"

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Umberto Muratori, Georgetown University
Abstract	This paper investigates the differences in markups between and within cohorts of US firms. I document substantial between-cohort differences and a relatively flat profile over time within cohorts. The paper uses administrative patent data to provide suggestive evidence that knowledge creation and diffusion explain these patterns. Namely, the between-cohorts pattern is associated with improvements in the innovation quality, and the within-cohort pattern is the result between the interaction of innovation and knowledge diffusion. Motivated by this new empirical evidence, I develop a general equilibrium endogenous growth model of creative destruction augmented with knowledge diffusion. I build the model for two purposes. First, I estimate the changes in the intensity of knowledge diffusion. I find knowledge diffuses 38% faster in 2010 than it did in 1980. Second, I quantify the effect of changes in the innovation step size and intensity of knowledge diffusion on growth and welfare. The quantitative exercises show the consumption-equivalent welfare increases by 0.29% if the innovation step size and intensity of knowledge diffusion increase from their 1980 to their 2010 values. By contrast, the counterfactual experiments highlight the increase in these parameters has no substantial effect on growth. Changes in the innovation quality and the speed of knowledge spillover can be achieved by reforming the patent system, such as changing the non-obviousness requirements or the patent term. The findings suggest policymakers, who aim to maximize the welfare, should choose short patent terms and low innovative-step requirements.
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Fecha	5 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Joana Duran-Franch | Oh Man! What Happened to Women? The Blurring of Gender-Based Occupational Segregation

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Joana Duran-Franch, Toulouse School of Economics
Abstract	The participation of women in the U.S. labor market increased during the past century. However, progress stalled and since 2000 the employment rate of women has not progressed. These changes are driven by the least educated women who have decreased their employment rate. In parallel, potential employment opportunities for this demographic group have grown: Service and clerical occupations, traditional sources of employment for low-educated women, have experienced employment growth over this period. I show empirically that the decline of employment in blue-collar occupations helps reconcile these two facts: Low-educated men, employed in blue-collar occupations and now out of employment, entered services and clerical occupations; blurring the existing gender-based occupational segregation and crowding some low-educated women out. I establish a causal link between these changes using an IV strategy and exploiting the cross-section variation at the local labor market level. I formalize a static general equilibrium model where individuals, who are heterogeneous in gender, education level and skills, decide which occupation type to sort into. The model is able to replicate the labor reallocation observed in the data by gender and level of education. The model shows that demographic changes have masked the effect of the demanualization in the labor market. The demanualization, driven by labor-saving technology improvements in blue-collar occupations, has decreased the aggregate employment rate of low-educated women from 1990-2016 by 8.1 percentage points, the same magnitude by which it has affected men. For men, the aggregate effect is smaller than the direct one on blue-collar employment, since low-educated men have relocated to other occupations. For women, 51% of the aggregate change corresponds to the direct effect on blue-collar employment; 49%, to the indirect crowding-out effect.
Fecha	4 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Alejandro Sánchez Becerra | Spillovers, Homophily, and Selection into Treatment: The Network Propensity Score

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Alejandro Sánchez Becerra, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract	Propensity score matching is often used to estimate treatment effects when there is selection on observables; however, it fails to identify causal effects when one person's treatment affects another's outcome. This phenomenon is known as spillovers. I propose a novel network propensity score matching approach that identifies both the average treatment effects and the average spillover effects between individuals. My approach is grounded on an endogenous model of network formation with spillovers on the outcome. This methodology can be used to identify causal effects for individuals with similar observables, analogous to the propensity score. I then propose estimators that are consistent and asymptotically normal for settings with multiple networks. I apply my methodology to two empirical examples. First, I study the effects of an intervention on political participation in Uganda where I find evidence of spillovers on non-participants. Second, I evaluate a microfinance adoption intervention in India, and find large treatment effects but limited spillovers effects. In some extensions of the method, I show how to conduct robustness checks and how to interpret the network propensity score in stratified multi-stage experiments. Presented at: Econometric Society World Congress 2020, Young Economists Symposium 2020, Warwick Ph.D. Conference 2019.
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Fecha	2 de febrero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Jonathan Garita | Minimum Wages and Firm Dynamics: Evidence From Costa Rica's Occupation-Based System

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Jonathan Garita, Ph.D. Candidate University of Texas at Austin
Abstract	This paper analyzes the impact of minimum wages on different margins of firm dynamics using Costa Rica’s occupation-specific minimum wage setting. To this purpose, I assemble rich administrative data covering the universe of workers and firms in the 2006-2017 period to construct firm-level exposure measures to the minimum wage policy, and estimate the impact of differential exposure to the minimum wage on firm outcomes at several year horizons. The analysis yields two important results: First, minimum wages induce firms to increase their labor shares, but with a negative and persistent impact on their profitability. The positive effect on the labor shares moderates as firms reduce their employment levels and expand their capital stocks. Second, raising minimum wages increases firm exit and lowers firm entry, with an estimated adverse effect on employment of 0.8 percent due to the missing entrants associated with the policy.
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Fecha	29 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Camila Galindo | Empirical Challenges of Multivalued Treatments Effects

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Camila Galindo, University of Maryland
Abstract	I study treatment effects under multiple options that lack a clear ranking. When the identifying variation stems from multiple instruments, agents can switch into different options and from many initial states. I discuss how to use conditional choice rules to estimate the shares of agents switching at well-defined margins of choice and their treatment effects. I develop an empirical strategy consistent with this framework and apply it to assess the impact of childcare choice in Colombia on children’s development. Parents can choose between home care and public care at small or large centers. I exploit two sources of exogenous variation: an experiment that provides information and encourages parents to switch to large centers, jointly with the geographical distance between the child’s home to the nearest center. Parental responses to the experimental variation can differ depending on the distance to the center. This feature uncovers heterogeneous responses along two margins of choice: small versus large centers, and small centers versus home care. Previous methods would attribute all the experimental variation to the small versus large centers margin. I find that, on average, 15-18% of parents are induced to switch from small towards large centers as the lottery outcome and proximity vary. My results suggest that, on average, switching towards large centers might benefit some children who live far from large centers but have more educated mothers.
Fecha	28 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Santiago García-Couto | "Beyond Labor Market Polarization"

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Santiago García-Couto, Arizona State University
Abstract	It is well documented that routine-biased technical change ("RBTC") led to labor market polarization during 1980-2000. In particular, the employment and wages of non-routine occupations, which include low-wage manual and high-wage cognitive ones, increased relative to routine occupations. I document that during 2000-2016, wage polarization stopped in that the wages of non-routine manual occupations fell in relative and absolute terms. I study the end of wage polarization through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium model with RBTC, human capital accumulation, and occupational mobility. I find that during 2000-2016, RBTC continued to take place, but human capital accumulation and occupational mobility changed. In particular, compared to workers in routine occupations, workers in non-routine manual occupations had lower initial human capital and accumulated less human capital whereas workers in cognitive occupations had more initial human capital and accumulated more human capital than before. During 1980-2000 the changes in the human capital accumulation of the occupations were similar to those during 2000-2016, but during the second period mobility across occupations fell, which magnified the differences in human capital accumulation and led to the end of wage polarization.
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Fecha	26 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Nicolás Badaracco | Time Investment Responses of Parents and Students to School Inputs

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Nicolás Badaracco, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Abstract	This paper studies the relationship between school and home investments in the cognitive development of children and the behavior of the actors involved in the process. I employ large-scale administrative and survey data from Chile to estimate how parents and children in primary and secondary school adjust their time investment in response to classroom and teacher quality. Since classroom inputs are not directly observed, I first estimate the production function for cognitive skills that provides measures of classroom and teacher quality. I then estimate the time investment responses to these quality measures. I find that parents of younger children compensate for low quality whereas parents of older children reinforce quality. Students, on the other hand, increase time self-investment in response to higher quality, but the responses are larger for older children. Motivated by the heterogeneity in responses by school grade, I estimate a child development model and characterize the optimal allocation of school resources across grades. I find that it is optimal to allocate relatively more resources to lower grades. Moreover, ignoring the behavioral response of households implies an optimal allocation with substantially lower improvements in cognitive development.
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Fecha	22 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Sandra Aguilar-Gómez | Adaptation and mitigation of pollution: evidence from air quality warnings

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Sandra Aguilar-Gómez, Columbia University
Abstract	Standard economic analyses of environmental policy focus on either reducing pollution externalities through mitigation or reducing the harms from exposure by encouraging adaptation. In practice, these issues are both critical, particularly when looking at the health effects of local air pollutants, which can be acute, and policymakers often pair information provision with short and long-run mitigation actions. This paper studies one widely used example of such a policy— air quality alerts. I explore whether, in the context of the Mexico City air quality alert program, information policy is more effective when paired with mitigation. I find that the policy did not improve air quality or health outcomes until the mitigation component, which limited transport emissions, was introduced. I also use sensor-level traffic data, geo-tagged accident reports, and search data as a measure of awareness of the policy to unveil the mechanisms through which considerable short-run improvements in air quality and health are achieved after issuing an alert. I find that the alert reduces car usage even before the driving restrictions enter into place, suggesting that, due to an increased awareness of pollution, people reduce their trips.
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Fecha	21 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Miguel Morales-Mosquera | The Economic Value of Crime Control: Evidence from a Large Investment in Police Infrastructure

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Miguel Morales-Mosquera, University of Chicago
Abstract	Research on the effects of police presence tends to focus on the impact such policies have on crime rates. Less is known about how much individuals value place-based policing strategies. This paper fills this gap by estimating the willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid crime using housing market data in the three largest cities of Colombia. Specifically, I study the effects of 100 newly constructed police stations on crime and property values using an instrumented difference-in-differences design. I find that police deter violent crime by 12 percent and property crime by 22 percent in the immediate vicinity of the newly constructed police stations, with no crime displacement nearby. Using a hedonic pricing model, I find that the opening of new police stations leads to a 5 percent increase in property values —a gain of $3.5 million for households directly affected. While hedonic regressions identify the effect of crime on housing values for the marginal buyer, I estimate a correlated random coefficients model and show that the welfare effects of crime are homogeneously distributed in the population. I conclude that the average marginal WTP to avoid crime due to the local effects of the intervention is $4,500 per household. These results suggest that cities under-provide policing and target high crime neighborhoods while the benefits are widespread.
Fecha	19 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

+ Marta Reynal-Querol | “Colonization, Early Settlers and Development: The Case of Latin America”

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Marta Reynal-Querol, UPF-ICREA-IPEG and Barcelona GSE
Coautor	José G.Montalvo (UPF-ICREA-IPEG and Barcelona GSE)
Abstract	In this paper, we document the long-run impact of the geographical heterogeneity in skills among the first settlers to Latin America. To this end, we compile administrative data on the early settlers in the Americas between 1492 and 1540 including, among others, name, city of origin, destination, and occupation. From a methodological perspective, a focus on the initial period of colonization in Latin America offers several advantages. First, differences in the geographical distribution of occupations among the first settlers are likely to be accidental. Second, a set-up that analyzes an area with a single colonizer (Spain) allows to hold constant formal institutions and legal origin. Our results show a relevant effect of the skills of first colonizers on long-run levels of development of the areas located around the original settlements. We find evidence of persistence in the form of market orientation and entrepreneurial spirit.
Documento	https://www.barcelonagse.eu/research/working-papers/colonization-early-settlers-and-development-case-latin-america
Fecha	27/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Nicolás de Roux | "Conflict Reduces Investment: Evidence from the Demand for Agricultural Credit in Colombia."

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Luis Roberto Martínez
Abstract	We study the effect of civil conflict on investment using detailed microdata from Colombia’s largest agricultural bank. We use a difference-in-difference design that compares municipalities with varying levels of historical activity by insurgent group FARC before and after the 2016 demobilization agreement between this group and the Colombian government. We show that the monthly number of loans to small farmers in municipalities with historical FARC presence increases disproportionately after the agreement, without changes in average size or interest rate. This increase is driven by a larger number of applications and is concentrated in municipalities with better access to markets. There is no change in default rates and reports from randomized audits reveal no difference in misuse of funds. Effects are much weaker during the negotiation phase that preceded the agreement, despite a reduction in violence, suggesting that armed group presence and the threat of continued conflict disincentivize the pursuit of profitable investments.
Documento	https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725231
Fecha	20/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Sandra Sequeira | Forced Displacement, Human Capital and Occupational Choice

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Sandra Sequeira, Associate Professor, London School of Economics
Coautores	Stelios Michalopolous (Brown University), Elias Pappaioannou (London Business School), Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidade de Montevideo)
Abstract	We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on investments in human capital and occupational choice, looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), one of the largest and most diverse forced displacement episodes in recent times. Mozambique's uniquely rich 1997 census allows us to trace the movement of more than 4 million individuals who were either internally displaced into cities and rural areas or externally displaced into refugee camps in neighboring countries. To overcome selection in displacement trajectories, we compare the displacement experience of siblings separated during the war, in areas equidistant (in terms of transport costs) to cities and to refugee camps. Children displaced into urban areas were more likely to invest in education and later experience a shift towards occupations outside of agriculture, even when they returned to the countryside once the war was over. Displacement to refugee camps in neighbouring countries yields no discernible differences in education and occupational specialization compared to rural non-movers. These patterns hold even when restricting our sample to twins and to siblings of the same gender and age group. Increased investments in schooling do not appear to be driven by increased access to school but instead, by a reduction in violence and by a move to areas with a higher stock of human capital, particularly cities. We then conduct a survey in one of Mozambique's largest cities to uncover the long-run impact of forced displacement. We show that displaced individuals have significantly higher education than their siblings, and that they seem to have integrated socially into urban areas, having comparable views and attitudes to non-mover city-dwellers. Yet, internally displaced individuals have lower mental health levels, lower levels of intra-community trust, and are less optimistic about economic mobility relative to city dwellers not displaced during the war. These findings underscore how forced displacement can act as a mobility shock that breaks links with subsistence agriculture, increases investments in education, and consequently increases human capital accumulation. However, it may come at the cost of decreased mental health.
Fecha	13/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Cesi Cruz | “Social Fragmentation, Electoral Competition and Public Goods Provision”

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Cesi Cruz, Vancouver School of Economics Department of Political Science University of British Columbia
Coautores	Julien Labonne (University of Oxford), Pablo Querubín (New York University)
Abstract	We study the relationship between social structure and political incentives for public goods provision. We argue that when politicians–rather than communities–are responsible for the provision of public goods, social fractionalization may decrease the risk of elite capture and lead to increased public goods provision and electoral competition. We test this using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages of the Philippines. We take advantage of naming conventions to assess intermarriage links between families and use community detection algorithms to identify the relevant clans in those villages. We show that there is more public goods provision and political competition in villages with more fragmented social networks, a result that is robust to controlling for a large number of village characteristics and to alternative estimation techniques.
Documento
Fecha	06/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Mara Squicciarini | Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Mara Squicciarini, Bocconi University
Coautores	Reka Juhasz (Columbia, NBER, and CEPR), Nico Voigtlaender (UCLA, NBER, and CEPR)
Abstract	We construct a novel dataset to examine the process of technology adoption during a period of rapid technological change: The diffusion of mechanized cotton spinning during the Industrial Revolution in France. We document several stylized facts that can explain the well-documented puzzle that major technological breakthroughs tend to be adopted slowly and – even after being adopted – take time to be reflected in higher aggregate productivity. Before mechanization, cotton spinning was performed in households, while production in plants only emerged with the new technology around 1800. This allows us to isolate the plant productivity distribution of new technology adopters in mechanized cotton spinning and to show that this distribution was initially highly dispersed. Over the subsequent decades, cotton spinning experienced dramatic productivity growth that was almost entirely driven by a disappearance of plants in the lower tail. In contrast, innovations in other sectors (with gradual technological progress) shifted the whole productivity distribution. We document rich historical and empirical evidence suggesting that the pattern in cotton spinning was driven by the need to re-organize production under the new technology. This process of ‘trial and error’ led to widely dispersed initial productivity draws, low initial average productivity, and – in the subsequent decades – to high productivity growth as new entrants adopted improved methods of production and organization.
Documento
Fecha	30/10/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Juliana Londoño | Enforcing Wealth Taxes in the Developing World: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Juliana Londoño, UCLA
Coautor	Javier Ávila
Abstract	This paper investigates the feasibility of wealth taxation in developing countries. It usesrich administrative data from Colombia and leverages a government-designed program forvoluntary disclosures of hidden wealth, as well as the threat of detection triggered by thePanama Papers leak. There are two key findings. First, there is substantial (primarily offshore)evasion: two-fifths of the wealthiest 0.01% evade taxes, with these evaders concealing one-third of their wealth offshore. Second, strengthening enforcement can have a significantimpact on wealth tax compliance, tax revenue, and progressivity. These results highlightboth challenges and opportunities for wealth taxation in the developing world.
Fecha	16/10/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Danila Serra | "Gender and leadership in organizations: promotions, demotions and angry workers"

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Danila Serra, Texas A&M University
Coautor	Priyanka Chakraborty
Abstract	Managerial decisions, such as promotions and demotions, please some employees and upset others. We examine whether having to communicate such decisions to employees, and knowing that employees may react badly, have a differential impact on men's and women's self-selection into leadership roles and their performance if they become leaders. In a novel laboratory experiment that simulates corporate decision-making, we find that women are significantly less likely to self-select into a managerial position when employees can send them angry messages. Once in the manager role, there is some evidence of gender differences in decision-making, but no difference in final outcomes, i.e., overall profits. Male and female managers use different language to motivate their employees, yet differences in communication styles emerge only when workers can send angry messages to managers. Finally, low-rank employees send more angry messages to female managers, and are more likely to question their decisions.
Fecha	02/10/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Laura Schechter | "Brokering Votes with Information Spread Via Social Networks"

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Laura Schechter, University of Wisconsin, Madison
Coautores	Raúl Duarte, Frederico Finan, Horacio Larreguy
Abstract	Throughout much of the developing world, politicians rely on political brokers to buy votes prior to elections. We investigate how social networks help facilitate vote-buying exchanges by combining village network data of brokers and voters with broker reports of vote buying. We show that networks diffuse politically-relevant information about voters to brokers who leverage it to target voters. In particular, we find that brokers target reciprocal voters who are not registered to their party and about whom they can hear more information through their social network. These results highlight the importance of information diffusion through social networks for vote buying and ultimately for political outcomes.
Archivo	https://aae.wisc.edu/lschechter/BrokerNetworks.pdf
Fecha	25/09/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Rodrigo R. Soares | "Down the River: Glyphosate Use in Agriculture and Birth Outcomes of Surrounding Populations."

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Rodrigo R. Soares, Columbia University
Coautores	Mateus Dias y Rudi Rocha
Abstract	This paper documents an externality from the agricultural use of the most popular herbicide in the world -- glyphosate -- on birth outcomes of surrounding populations. Our empirical strategy explores the initial regulation of genetically modified seeds in Brazil, the potential gains in productivity from adoption of genetically modified soybean, and the fact that glyphosate was strongly complementary to the first generation of genetically modified soybean seeds introduced in the country. We focus on the identification of the subclinical effects through contamination of water for populations distant from the original locations of use. Our strategy relies heavily on the direction of water flow within water basins to achieve identification. We detect a statistically significant deterioration in birth outcomes for populations receiving water from locations that expanded glyphosate use. Despite ongoing controversy, little is known about the externalities of herbicides in general on human populations at large. We provide evidence on this type of externality for the case of glyphosate contamination through water.
Fecha	11/09/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Marcela Eslava | Emes and Covid-19: Shutting down in a world of informal and tiny firms

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Laura Alfaro y Oscar Becerra
Abstract	Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, smallfirm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on accounting identities and actual data, quantifies potential job and income losses during the crisis and recovery for economies with different economic organization structures. Our analysis incorporates differential exposure of jobs across categories of firm-size and formality status, as well as sectors and occupations. We account for the direct supply shock caused by lockdowns, the idiosyncratic demand shock suffered by sectors that rely on high contact with their costumers, the transmission of both shocks through IO linkages, and the overall aggregate demand effect derived from these shocks. Applying our framework to data for Colombia, which exhibits an employment distribution similar to that of other emerging market countries, in particular Latin America, we find that well over 50% of jobs are at risk in the initial stages of the crisis. Because informal jobs and those not fit for telework are at higher risk, this number goes down to 33% if the US employment distribution is imposed on the Colombian data. As the crisis deepens, the risk of unemployment grows. However, informality rebounds quickly in the recovery, an employment at risk is quickly reduced to 20% of the baseline, all concentrated in formal jobs. Our findings point to the importance of action to maintain formal matches from dissolving, given their scarcity and rebuilding difficulty, while protecting the poor and the informal via income transfers.
Archivo
Fecha	04/09/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Seema Jayachandran | Reshaping Adolescents' Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-Based Experiment in India

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Seema Jayachandran, Nortwestern University
Coautores	Diva Dhar y Tarun Jain
Abstract	Societal norms about gender roles contribute to the economic disadvantages facing women in many developing countries. This paper evaluates a school-based intervention in India that engaged adolescents in classroom discussions about gender equality for two and a half years with the goal of eroding their support for restrictive gender norms. Using a randomized controlled trial, we find that the program made attitudes 0.18 standard deviations more supportive of gender equality, or, equivalently, converted 16% of participants’ regressive views. In addition, self-reported behavior became more aligned with progressive gender norms, particularly among boys. The effects observed in the short run were still present two years after the program had ended.
Archivo	https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~sjv340/reshaping_gender_attitudes.pdf
Fecha	21/08/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Catherine Rodríguez | Impactos de la ayuda financiera para postgrados de alta calidad en el exterior

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Catherine Rodríguez, Investigadora Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Este trabajo estima el impacto de ser beneficiario del programa crédito-beca de Colfuturo para llevar a cabo estudios de postgrado en las mejores universidades del mundo sobre los resultados en la calidad y cantidad de educación obtenida y en el mercado laboral. Para ello, explotamos la regla exógena utilizada por el programa para la asignación del tratamiento (ser beneficiario del crédito- beca) estimando los impactos a través de la metodología de Regresión Discontinua. La regla de asignación se determina mediante un puntaje calculado a partir de las características del aplicante y el programa al que se postula, estableciéndose para cada área de conocimiento y año un punto de corte específico. Para llevar a cabo la evaluación combinamos datos administrativos del programa con información de la PILA y CVLAC. Adicionalmente, recolectamos información primaria para una muestra de aplicantes. Los resultados indican que haber sido beneficiario del programa incrementa en 33% la probabilidad de tener estudios de postgrado, en 50% la probabilidad de estudiar en el exterior y los salarios en 45%. Adicionalmente, los beneficiarios asisten a programas de mayor calidad y por mayor tiempo. Es importante resaltar que estos resultados positivos se dan en mayor medida para los hombres.
Fecha	14/08/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Luis R. Martínez | “Chile’s Missing Students: Dictatorship, Higher Education and Social Mobility”

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Luis R. Martínez, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago
Abstract	Hostile policies towards higher education are a prominent feature of authoritarian regimes. We study restricted access to college in the context of the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in Chile following the 1973 coup. We find three main results: (i) cohorts that reached college age in the years immediately after the coup experienced a steady decline in college enrollment as a result of the continual reduction in the number of openings for incoming students decreed by the regime; (ii) these cohorts had worse outcomes along multiple margins throughout the life cycle and struggled to climb up the socioeconomic ladder, especially women; (iii) children with parents in the a_ected cohorts also have a substantially lower probability of college enrollment. These results demonstrate that restrictions on the supply of higher education in non-democracies hinder social mobility and lead to a persistent reduction in human capital accumulation, even after democratization.
Archivo
Fecha	31/07/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Juan Manuel Cordovez | “Modelos matemáticos desarrollados para entender las dinámicas de transmisión del COVID en Colombia”

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Juan Manuel Cordovez, Director departamento ingeniería biomédica Uniandes
Abstract	Investigadores de Los Andes plantean un modelo matemático para analizar posibles efectos que pueden tener dos de las principales estrategias implementadas en Bogotá: abrir gradualmente sectores de la economía, y la reapertura de colegios y universidades. El objetivo de este trabajo es entregar un segundo informe que estudia el posible efecto que pueden tener las medidas de mitigación de la propagación del COVID-19 en Bogotá. Para esto se revisó y mejoró un modelo matemático que estudia la dinámica de contagio en un ambiente urbano realista. Se estudia el período de junio - julio - agosto en detalle para las restricciones estudiadas y se explora la posibilidad de un rebrote (”segunda ola”) para los meses de septiembre - octubre - noviembre.
Archivo	https://uniandes.edu.co/es/noticias/matematica-fisica-y-quimica/covid19-analisis-de-las-medidas-de-mitigacion-en-los-proximos-meses
Fecha	24/07/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Paolo Pin | Covid19: unless one gets everyone to act, policies may be ineffective or even backfire

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Paolo Pin, Università Bocconi
Coautores	Alessio Muscillo, Tiziano Razzolini
Abstract	The diffusion of COVID19 is calling governments and public health authorities to interventions that limit new infections and contain the expected number of critical cases and deaths. Most of these measures rely on the compliance of people, who are asked to reduce their social contacts to a minimum. In this note we argue that individuals' adherence to prescriptions and reduction of social activity may not be efficacious if not implemented robustly on all social groups, especially on those characterized by intense mixing patterns. Actually, it is possible that, if those who have many contacts reduce them proportionally less than those who have few, then the effect of a policy could backfire: the disease would take more time to die out, up to the point that it could become endemic. In a nutshell, unless one gets everyone to act, and specifically those who have more contacts, a policy may even be counterproductive.
Archivo	https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14239
Fecha	17/07/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Francisco Ferreira | Lives and Livelihoods. Estimates of the Global Mortality and Poverty Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Francisco Ferreira, International Inequality Institute, London School of Economic
Coautores	Benoit Decerf, Daniel G. Mahler, Olivier Sterck
Abstract	The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Policy Research Working Paper 9277 This paper evaluates the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid- 19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, estimates of LYs and PYs are compared across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) has generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, the dominance of poverty over mortality is reversed in a counterfactual “herd immunity” scenario: without any policy intervention, LYs tend to be greater than PYs, and the overall welfare losses are greater.
Archivo
Fecha	10/07/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Ivan Werning | Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Ivan Werning, Professor of Economics, MIT
Coautores	Veronica Guerrieri (Chicago Booth), Guido Lorenzoni (Northwestern) Ludwig Straub (Harvard)
Abstract	We present a theory ofKeynesian supply shocks: supply shocks that trigger changes inaggregate demand larger than the shocks themselves. We argue that the economicshocks associated to the COVID-19 epidemic—shutdowns, layoffs, and firm exits—mayhave this feature. In one-sector economies supply shocks are never Keynesian. Weshow that this is a general result that extend to economies with incomplete marketsand liquidity constrained consumers. In economies with multiple sectors Keynesiansupply shocks are possible, under some conditions. A 50% shock that hits all sectorsis not the same as a 100% shock that hits half the economy. Incomplete markets makethe conditions for Keynesian supply shocks more likely to be met. Firm exit and jobdestruction can amplify the initial effect, aggravating the recession. We discuss theeffects of various policies. Standard fiscal stimulus can be less effective than usualbecause the fact that some sectors are shut down mutes the Keynesian multiplierfeedback. Monetary policy, as long as it is unimpeded by the zero lower bound, canhave magnified effects, by preventing firm exits. Turning to optimal policy, closingdown contact-intensive sectors and providing full insurance payments to affectedworkers can achieve the first-best allocation, despite the lower per-dollar potency offiscal policy.
Archivo	https://economics.mit.edu/files/19351
Fecha	26/06/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Daron Acemoglu | Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multi-Group SIR Model

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Daron Acemoglu, MIT
Coautores	Iván Werning, Victor Chernozhukov, Michael D. Whinston (MIT)
Abstract	We study targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model where infection, hospitalization and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the “young”, “the middle-aged” and the “old”. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter lockdown policies on the oldest group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the most vulnerable group both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups. We also study the impacts of group distancing, testing and contract tracing, the matching technology and the expected arrival time of a vaccine on optimal policies. Overall, targeted policies that are combined with measures that reduce interactions between groups and increase testing and isolation of the infected can minimize both economic losses and deaths in our model.
Archivo	https://www.nber.org/papers/w27102
Fecha	19/06/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

+ Oscar Becerra | Valuing personal safety and the gender earnings gap

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Oscar Becerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	José Alberto Guerra (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	Can personal traits and safety perception determine gender differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for safer jobs? Using a lab experiment, we elicit person's WTP for an early (perceived safer) shift, and study the role of risk preferences, safety concerns and information provision about crime on explaining gender gaps. We find that women are more willing to forego earnings for personal safety than men. The most relevant factor in explaining the earnings gap is gender differences in safety perception, and giving objective information did not change WTP. Thus, policies focused on reducing gender disparities in safety concerns may have a potential effect on women labor supply decisions.
Fecha	14/05/2020
Hora	5:00 a 6:30 pm.

+ Juan Pablo Posada | Truth and Absolution in Colombia: For FARC's sake

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Pablo Posada, University of Western Australia
Coautores	Michael Jetter y Christopher Parsons (University of Western Australia)
Abstract	How can a state demobilize militants during a civil war? We study the effects of an information campaign to demobilize FARC rebels, when the Colombian government aired short information segments during games of the national football team between 2007 and 2016. Exploiting the quasi-random assignment of matches, we isolate the causal effect on demobilizations across all 1,122 Colombian municipalities. Exploring quasi-exogenous variation in kick-off times and rain across municipalities, our results reveal sizeable effects of these messages that reached out to rebels, offering them the opportunity to reintegrate into the Colombian society. Thousands of FARC rebels demobilized without the need to fire a bullet.
Archivo
Fecha	10/03/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Adriana Cobas | Coordinating in the haircut A model of sovereign debt restructuring in secondary markets

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Adriana Cobas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Abstract	Over the last two decades, countries that default on their debts increasingly have had to confront mostly atomistic unconnected bondholders when engaging on restructuring negotiations. According to data, the nature of creditors impacts on restructuring results, reducing investors concession to the government in default. This paper, proposes a model to study the determination of the haircut for defaulted debt when bondholders play a coordination game. The Resulting multiplicity is solved with a global games approach. I find that this new market setting introduces an additional constraint to the government which end up compressing the asked concession in order to increase the probability of program's acceptance. For illustrative purposes I run simulations with calibrated parameters and find that coordination costs account for a significant portion of the haircut reduction (up to 25%) after sovereign debt disintermediation process.
Fecha	25/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Mateo Montenegro | Monitoring the Vote or Voting to Monitor? Evidence from Two Large Scale Field Experiments in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Mateo Montenegro, MIT
Coautor	Natalia Garbiras-Díaz (U. C. Berkeley)
Abstract	Can crowdsourcing technologies aimed at augmenting civil oversight of elections increase electoral integrity? We report the results of two large-scale field experiments designed to assess the effectiveness of online crowdsourcing technologies in increasing the engagement of civil society in electoral monitoring around elections in Colombia. We leveraged Facebook advertisements to encourage citizen reporting of electoral irregularities through official websites, and also varied whether candidates were informed about the campaign in a subset of municipalities. In addition to the expected informational effects – whereby citizen reports increased, and politicians reduced their engagement in electoral irregularities – the results highlight powerful salience effects, which operated by making electoral irregularities more top-of-mind to citizens. Specifically, the advertisements generated a large shift in the vote share of candidates perceived to be less corrupt and away from those perceived to be more corrupt. We argue that these salience effects are driven by a shift in voter preferences towards candidates they perceived as ‘cleaner’. We formally test this hypothesis in a follow-up experiment around the 2019 mayoral elections in which we vary the salience of electoral irregularities in the advertisements sent through Facebook. As expected, we find that the advertisements featuring messages emphasizing the salience of electoral misdeeds generate a larger shift in the votes for ‘cleaner’ candidates than the ones only providing information about the reporting website.
Fecha	20/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Román David Zárate | Factor Allocation, Informality, and Transit Improvements: Evidence from Mexico City

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Román David Zárate, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract	The presence of the informal sector in the developing world creates wedges across firms that lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This paper examines the impact of transit improvements on aggregate efficiency by studying the relationship between commuting, trade, and informality. To do so, I combine a rich collection of administrative microdata and exploit the construction of new subway lines in Mexico City. I find that transit improvements lead to a reduction in informality rates by four percentage points in nearby areas to the new stations. This result indicates that workers reallocate to firms with higher total factor revenue productivity (formal firms). I develop a spatial general equilibrium model considering both the direct effects under perfectly efficient economies and the allocative efficiency margin. From a first-order approximation, I provide a formula that decomposes the welfare impact of commuting/trade shocks into a “direct” effect and an allocative efficiency term. I quantify and decompose the welfare gains of the new infrastructure after estimating the key elasticities of the model. Changes in allocative efficiency driven by the reallocation of workers to the formal sector explain approximately 13-23% of the total gains, and average real income per every dollar spent on infrastructure increases by 15% relative to a perfectly efficient economy.
Fecha	18/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Ignacio Sarmiento Bavieri | Can't Stop the One-Armed Bandits The Effects of Access to Gambling on Crime

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Ignacio Sarmiento Bavieri, University of Illinois
Coautores	Nicolas L. Bottan (Cornell University) and Andrés Ham (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	We estimate the effects on criminal activity due to the approval of state legislation in Illinois that legalized video gambling. The bill gave municipalities discretion over whether to allow video gambling within their local boundaries. Many jurisdictions adjacent to Chicago opted in, while the City of Chicago opted out. These decisions create a natural experiment that allows studying the effects of increasing access to gambling on crime. Using detailed incident-level crime data and a difference-indiferences strategy, we nd that (i) access to gambling increases violent and property crimes; (ii) these crimes represent \new" rather than displaced incidents; and (iii) effects are persistent over time. We further study downstream effects on property values, finding that properties adjacent to gambling establishments sell on average at a three percent discount.
Fecha	12/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ David Green | "The Minimum Wage, Turnover, and the Shape of the Wage Distribution"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Green, (UBC)
Coautores	Pierre Brochu (University of Ottawa), Thomas Lemieux (UBC), and James Townsend (University of Winnipeg)
Abstract	In this paper, we propose an empirical approach for jointly modelling the impact of the minimum wage on the wage distribution, and on movements in and out of the workforce. We estimate the effects of the minimum wage on the hazard rate for wages, which provides a convenient way of re-scaling the wage distribution in the presence of employment effects linked to the minimum wage. We use the estimates to decompose the distributional effects of minimum wages into effects for workers moving out of employment, workers moving into employment, and workers continuing in employment. We find substantial spillover effects of the minimum wage, and significant differences across the three groups. We use those differences to delineate among the main models of the impact of the minimum wage on the wage distribution.
Fecha	11/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Alain Naef | Blowing against the Wind? A Narrative Approach to Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Alain Naef, University of California, Berkeley
Abstract	Studies on the effectiveness of central bank intervention yield mixed results and poorly deal with endogeneity. By using a narrative approach, this paper is the first to deal with intraday changes in market conditions to show the real effect of central bank foreign exchange intervention on exchange rates. Some studies find that intervention works in up to 80% of cases. By accounting for intraday market moving news, I find that in adverse conditions, the Bank of England only managed to influence the exchange rate in 8% of cases. I use both machine learning and human assessment to confirm the validity of the narrative assessment.
Fecha	04/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Rubén Poblete-Cazenave | Crime and Punishment: Do politicians in power receive special treatment in courts? Evidence from India

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, University College London
Abstract	An independent and impartial judicial system is essential for a well-functioning democracy and the economy. Despite constitutional guarantees, elected politicians may substantially influence the legal system. This paper studies whether politicians in power get special treatment in courts when facing criminal accusations. I construct a unique panel of over 1,300 criminal cases for candidates for state legislative assemblies in India from 2004 to 2013. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare the probability of a pending criminal case being closed without conviction at the end of a legislature for politicians who marginally won the election against those who marginally lost it. This paper uncovers significant opposite effects of winning office, depending on the political alignment with the state ruling party. Winners from the state ruling party are 17 percent more likely to get their pending criminal cases closed without conviction during their period in office. In contrast, winners from other parties are 15 percent less likely to get their pending cases closed without conviction during the same time-frame. The result is consistent with the misuse of attributions vested on those in power within the executive to affect the career of legal officials.
Fecha	03/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juan Herreño | The Aggregate Effects of Bank Lending Cuts

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Herreño, Columbia University
Abstract	A large body of cross-sectional evidence has established that cuts in the supply of bank lending affect firm outcomes and the allocation of credit. However, it is unclear what these results imply for the effect on aggregate output of a cut in aggregate bank lending. I estimate this aggregate effect using a new general equilibrium model that incorporates multibank firms, relationship banking, endogenous credit dependence, and bank market power. I use a set of cross-sectional patterns to estimate the key structural parameters of the model. The effect of an aggregate lending cut on aggregate output is large: a 1 percent decline in aggregate bank lending supply reduces aggregate output by 0.2 percent. The structure of labor and credit markets is important in reaching this answer. Under an alternative parametrization of the model that ignores input market frictions, the response of aggregate output is three times smaller. Under my preferred parametrization, the cross-sectional effects survive aggregation in general equilibrium. Instead, with frictionless input markets the cross-sectional patterns over-estimate the aggregate response by a factor of five.
Fecha	31/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Alejandro G. Graziano | Trade Liberalization and Industrial Concentration

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Alejandro G. Graziano, University of Maryland
Abstract	I examine the interrelationship between industrial concentration and trade liberalization. I develop a hybrid model that augments the standard monopolistic competition approach in trade to include an oligopolistic margin: a set of heterogeneous granular firms competing in quantities. This margin predicts novel effects of trade liberalization on trade, consumer welfare, and industrial concentration. Specically, trade liberalization generates (i) lower imports when the foreign oligopoly margin is larger, (ii) lower consumer gains when foreign firms are more concentrated than domestic, and (iii) higher domestic industrial concentration of granular firms. I derive a gravity equation where the trade cost elasticity is attenuated by foreign firm concentration and find support for this prediction using detailed data from Colombia. Foreign concentration heterogeneity across origin countries suggests that there is a fundamental heterogeneity in the first-order impact of trade liberalization: imports from countries in the top decile of concentration had 13 log points lower growth on average than imports from countries in the bottom decile during a period in which average imports growth was 36 log points.
Fecha	30/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Mariana Laverde | Unequal Assignments to Public Schools and the Limits of School Choice

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Mariana Laverde, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
Abstract	This paper studies the limits of school choice policies in the presence of residential sorting. Using data from the Boston Public Schools choice system, I show that white pre-kindergarteners are assigned to higher-achieving schools than minority students, and that cross-race school achievement gaps under choice are no lower than would be generated by a neighborhood assignment rule. To understand why choice-based assignments do not reduce gaps in school achievement, I use rich data on applicants' rank-order choices to estimate preferences over schools, and consider a series of counterfactual assignments. I find that between 60% and 70% of the gap in achievement at the schools assigned to black and hispanic students relative to those assigned to white students is explained by travel costs to high-performing schools. Differences in preferences for schools explain about 30% of the gap, while algorithm rules have no significant effect. Importantly, if black and hispanic parents faced the average travel costs of white parents, the improvement in school achievement for minority students would be coupled with school assignments that are on average preferred to these students.
Fecha	28/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Andre Victor Doherty Luduvice | The Macroeconomic Effects of Universal Basic Income Programs

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andre Victor Doherty Luduvice, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract	What are the consequences of a nationwide reform of a transfer system based on means-testing towards one of unconditional transfers? I answer this question with a quantitative model to assess the general equilibrium, inequality, and welfare effects of substituting the current U.S. income security system with a Universal Basic Income (UBI) policy. To do so, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic income risk that incorporates intensive and extensive margins of labor supply, on-the-job learning, and child-bearing costs. The tax-transfer system closely mimics the U.S. design. I calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and conduct counterfactual analyses that implement reforms towards a UBI. I find that an expenditure-neutral reform has moderate impacts on the labor supply response of agents but induces aggregate capital and output to grow due to larger precautionary savings. A UBI of $ 1,000 monthly requires a substantial increase in the tax rate of consumption used to clear the government budget and leads to an overall decrease of the macroeconomic aggregates, stemming from a sharp drop in labor. In both cases, the economy has more disposable income but less consumption at the bottom of their distributions. The UBI economy constitutes a welfare loss at the transition if expenditure-neutral and results in a gain in the second scenario. Despite relative losses, a majority of newborn households supports both UBI reforms.
Fecha	23/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Fernanda Sobrino | Mexican Cartel Wars: Fighting for the U.S. Opioid Market

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Fernanda Sobrino, Princeton University
Abstract	The number of major Drug Trafficking Organizations (known as cartels) in Mexico increased from four to nine over the last two decades. This was accompanied by an increase in drug trade related violence. This paper examines the relationship between violence and competition for market share among cartels. To measure cartel presence, a difficult to measure phenomenon, I construct a novel data set of cartel presence across Mexican municipalities by scraping Google News and using natural language processing. To study how market size and structure interact with violence, I exploit two empirical strategies using within municipality variation. First, I interact heroin prices with agro-climatic conditions to grow opium poppy, using exogenous variation in demand for heroin from the 2010 OxyContin reformulation. This reformulation made OxyContin harder to abuse and led some opioid abusers to switch to heroin. Second, I exploit variation in the timing of cartel entry in a municipality. Cartel presence increases substantially after 2010 in municipalities well-suited to grow opium poppy. As more cartels enter a market, homicide rates increase. These results suggest that substantial part of the increase in violence that Mexico experienced in the last fifteen years is due to criminal groups fighting for market share of heroin, not only due to changes in government enforcement.
Fecha	21/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juliana Helo Sarmiento | Into the Tropics: Temperature and Mortality in Colombia

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Juliana Helo Sarmiento, University of California, Santa Barbara
Abstract	This paper studies the relationship between temperature and mortality in a tropical country. Tropical countries host almost 40% of the world’s population, and populations face inherently different conditions in terms of environmental, demographic, and socio-economic conditions than their counterparts in temperate areas. Using data from over 1000 Colombian municipalities, I show that even at narrow temperature ranges, which are characteristic of the tropics, anomalously hot or cold days increase mortality. An additional day with mean temperature above 27◦C (80.6◦F) increases mortality rates by approximately 0.24 deaths per 100,000, equivalent to almost 0.7% of monthly death rates. Unlike temperate locations, I find that deaths attributed to infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses drive this relationship in the hot part of the distribution, affecting children aged 0-5 primarily. These findings uncover new factors and populations at risk after the occurrence of hot temperature shocks. These findings imply that the average person who dies after a hot temperature shock loses approximately 30 years of life.
Fecha	20/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Tatiana Rosa | Cooperation, Competition and Patents: Understanding Innovation in the Telecommunication Sector

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Tatiana Rosa, CEMFI
Fecha	16/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Diego Ramos Toro | Social Exclusion and Social Preferences: Evidence From Colombia’s Leper Colony

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Diego Ramos Toro, Brown University
Fecha	15/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juan Sebastian Muñoz | Entering the Major Leagues: The Effect of Import Competition from the United States on Workers and Firms in an Emerging Economy

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Sebastian Muñoz, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
Coautor	Leonardo Bonilla (Banco de la República)
Fecha	14/01/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jean Charles Rochet | Taxing Financial Transactions

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jean Charles Rochet, MIT Sloan
Coautor	Bruno Biais (HEC Paris)
Abstract	Financial Transactions Taxes (FTT) are usually aimed at correcting market externalities or destabilizing speculation by irrational investors. We show that they may have a positive impact on social welfare even in the absence of these frictions. In a simple neo- classical model, we show that an appropriately designed FTT can allow the government to rebalance its tax system and decrease highly distortive taxes on labor and capital.
Fecha	10/12/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay | Does Affirmative Action in Politics Hinder Performance? Evidence from India

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Indian Statistical Institute (Delhi)
Coautores	Sabyasachi Das (Ashoka University) y Rajas Saroy (ISI, Delhi)
Abstract	We ask whether equity promotion through electoral quotas for disad-vantaged groups must come at the cost of leader's overall performance or efficiency." The literature on electoral quotas, though invested in the equity question, is mostly silent on this issue. Using randomized electoral quotas for a caste group (OBCs) in a large state in India, we show that, on average, delivery of public projects does not suffer due to quota. Moreover, we show that when one group is numerous, quotas may in fact improve leader's performance. We argue and empirically demonstrate that this happens because electoral quotas increase within-group electoral competition in villages where the group is large. Further, we show that the improvement in performance doesn't benefit any group differentially, and is not driven by leader's ability or preference, or improved group monitoring. The result highlights that “effeciency" concerns regarding affirmative action may need reevaluation. It further justifes the electoral quota policy in India of targeting the jurisdictions where the group is numerous.
Archivo
Fecha	28/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Raquel Bernal | Los efectos del agotamiento laboral y los síntomas depresivos de las maestras de preescolar sobre el desarrollo temprano de los niños

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	María de la Paz Ferro (Banco Inter-Americano de Desarrollo)
Abstract	Este estudio evalúa el impacto del agotamiento laboral y los síntomas depresivos de las maestras de preescolar sobre el desarrollo temprano de los niños que atienden. Con este objetivo, se utiliza una muestra de niños entre los 18 y 36 meses de edad que asisten a un programa público de educación inicial ofrecido en centros en ocho ciudades principales de Colombia entre 2013 y 2014. Se miden los síntomas de depresión por la escala CESD-10 y el agotamiento laboral por el instrumento MBI-ES de 267 maestras que atienden estos niños. Para los niños, se dispone de mediciones de vocabulario receptivo, aprestamiento escolar, autorregulación y memoria de trabajo, y desarrollo socioemocional. La estrategia de identificación explota la naturaleza longitudinal de los datos para estimar una especificación de valor agregado que controla por el desarrollo temprano en línea de base y utiliza variables instrumentales para mitigar los sesgos por endogeneidad. Los resultados indican que la depresión de las maestras tiene un impacto negativo sobre desarrollo socioemocional solamente, mientras que el agotamiento laboral tiene efectos negativos de tamaño significativo sobre desarrollo cognitivo, autorregulación y desarrollo socioemocional. Estos efectos parecen estar relacionados con un cambio en la calidez y sensibilidad de las interacciones entre maestras y niños, y no por el tipo y frecuencia de las actividades pedagógicas en el aula.
Fecha	26/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Andrea Tesei | "Technology Adoption and Access to Credit via Mobile Phones"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrea Tesei, Queen Mary University of London
Coautores	Jacopo Ponticelli (Northwestern University) and Apoorv Gupta (Northwestern University)
Abstract	Farmers in developing countries often lack access to timely and reliable information about modern technologies that are essential to improve agricultural productivity. The recent diffusion of mobile phones has the potential to overcome these barriers by making information available to those previously unconnected. In this paper we study the effect of mobile phone network expansion in rural India on adoption of high yielding variety seeds and chemical fertilizers. Our empirical strategy exploits geographical variation in the construction of mobile phone towers under a large government program targeting areas without existing coverage. To explore the role of mobile phones in mitigating information frictions we analyze the content of 1.4 million phone calls made by farmers to a major call center for agricultural advice. Farmers seek advice on which seed varieties and fertilizers better meet their needs and how to use them. We find that areas receiving mobile phone coverage experience higher adoption of these technologies. We also observe that farmers are often unaware of the eligibility criteria and loan terms offered by subsidized credit programs. Consistently, we find that areas receiving mobile phone coverage experience higher take-up of agricultural credit.
Archivo
Fecha	19/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Andrés Ham G. | "Bartenders, Alcohol, and Violence: A Field Experiment in Bogotá, Colombia"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Ham G., Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Darío Maldonado, Michael Weintraub, Andrés Felipe Camacho y Daniela Gualtero
Abstract	This paper studies whether bartenders that adopt standardized practices can promote responsible alcohol consumption and subsequently reduce alcohol-attributable violence. We conduct a randomized experiment in four localities of Bogotá in cooperation with Colombia’s largest brewery and the Secretariat of Security, Coexistence, and Justice. Our design allows estimating direct and spillover effects on reported incidents within and around bars. Results show that bartenders in treatment locations sell more water and food, thus contributing to more responsible alcohol consumption by patrons. We find no direct or spillover effects of these changes in consumption on violence but some improvement in other alcohol-related incidents.
Fecha	12/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Stephen Haber | The Ecological Origin of Political and Economic Systems

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Stephen Haber, Stanford University
Coautores	Roy Elis (UpTeach Inc) y Jordan Horrillo (Stanford University)
Abstract	Why do wealthy countries tend to be stable democracies? Why do high-income democracies cluster geographically? Why did these patterns only emerge over the past 200 years? We address these questions by advancing an ecological framework, in which an ecology is understood to be the physical environment and the social and institutional adaptations that human beings made in order to survive in it. We hypothesize that the social and institutional adaptations that societies made in order to mitigate the great challenge of insuring against starvation prior to 1800 conditioned their abilities to respond to the next great challenge they faced; adapting to the challenge posed by adapting the technologies of the modern world after 1800. We also hypothesize that how societies were able to insure against starvation prior to 1800 was conditioned by their local factor endowments related to food production, storage, and transport. It follows that a vector of factor endowments, conditional on the technologies of 1800, should explain variance in today’s levels of economic development and democratic consolidation. We find that 53 percent of the variance GDP per capita in 2014 is explained by a vector of seven factor endowments, and the percentage of variance increases to 62 percent once oil-intensive economies are accounted for. In addition, we find that 27 percent of the variance in economic growth since 1800 is accounted for by those factor endowments, and that the 30 percent of the level of democratic consolidation today is accounted for by those factor endowments. We also find that these results are robust to the addition of other variables that researchers have posited as causal factors in long-run economic growth.
Fecha	7/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Maria Marta Ferreyra | A Dynamic Choice Model of College Enrollment, Academic Progression, and Completion with Endogenous Risk

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Maria Marta Ferreyra, World Bank
Coautores	Carlos Garriga (St. Louis Fed), Juan David Martin (World Bank), and Angelica Sanchez Diaz (Georgetown)
Abstract	This paper develops and estimates a dynamic choice model of college enrollment and completion with endogenous risk. In the model, high school graduates who differ in ability and family income choose between enrolling in college and entering the labor force. Graduating from college requires the completion of a set number of credits. The combination of study effort, ability, and individual-specific shocks determines academic progression and the likelihood of graduating. Students are exposed to the risk of poor performance, and the risk of dropping out, yet they can mitigate their risk exposure through their study effort. The model is calibrated using student-level data for the 2006 cohort of high school graduates from Colombia. The estimates capture the observed patterns of enrollment, academic progression, and graduation observed in the data. The model is used to simulate counterfactual free college policies, including universal free college, free college for high-ability and/or low-income students, and performance-based free college. According to the counterfactuals, the most successful policies can increase aggregate enrollment rates by at least 15 percentage points (pp), but cannot increase aggregate graduation rates by more than 3 pp. The effects on graduation are driven by the type of selection induced by the policy. For the policies with positive selection, the graduation rate of new students is higher than that of existing students, whereas with negative selection the opposite is observed. The model indicates that only performance-based policies generate large effects in the fraction of students that graduate on-time.
Fecha	5/11/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Wyatt Brooks | "Identification and Quantitative Implications of an Equilibrium Diffusion Model"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Wyatt Brooks, Notre Dame
Coautores	Kevin Donovan (Yale) y Terence Johnson (Notre Dame)
Abstract	"An increasingly utilized class of general equilibrium models includes inter-firm knowledge spillovers through diffusion. Standard methods to calibrate critical diffusion parameters require making assumptions about the economic environment, then using the resulting structure to map these parameters onto more easily observed empirical moments. Within this class of models, we prove that randomly varying interactions uniquely identifies a small set of parameters characterizing the diffusion process independent of the remaining economic environment. We provide an application of our results in Kenya, where we conduct a randomized controlled trial matching firms from the left tail of the profit distribution to those from the right. Despite matching the quick fade out of the small-scale experimental treatment effect, the model simultaneously implies a large general equilibrium diffusion externality. Key is that critical parameters push the partial and general equilibrium magnitudes in different directions. This matters: if a policy-maker selected economies in which to implement optimal policy based solely on the magnitude of their experimental impact, she would in fact minimize the possible welfare gains. Thus, the ability to properly estimate such parameters is critical not only for measuring the equilibrium importance of diffusion but alsofor the interpretation and extrapolation of smaller-scale empirical studies."
Archivo
Fecha	24/10/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jeanne Lafortune | Men, Women and Capital: Estimating substitution patterns using a size and gender-dependent childcare policy in Chile

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jeanne Lafortune, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Coautores	Diego Escobar (Harris School of Public Policy) y Jose Tessada (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
Abstract	This paper uses a policy implemented in Chile that obliges firms to fully fund childcare costs for their female employees, but only if they hire more than 19 women. Using plant level from manufacturing firms, we first show that this policy has had a substantially detrimental impact on the hiring of women above that threshold, in particular since the policy has become more binding, in industrial sectors that hire fewer women and in larger firms. We then use the response of firms to study whether women workers are more or less complementary to capital than men. We find that firms that avoid the legislation by having just below 20 female workers are significantly more capital intensive than firms just above the threshold. This suggests that firms that want to avoid being subject to the regulation replace women with capital but in such a way that the capital to men ratio increases. A theoretical framework suggests that this implies that women are less complementary with capital than men in this emerging economy’s manufacturing sector. This does not seem to be driven by a change inskill composition of the workforce. We also find some evidence of other changes: average wages and total workforce are lower for firms who hire 20 women than those who hire just below that threshold but labor productivity is unaltered.
Archivo
Fecha	22/10/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Rafael J. Santos | Is Fish Brain Food? Sea Surface Temperature, Methyl-mercury and Child Cognitive Development

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rafael J. Santos, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Mark R. Rosenzweig (Yale University)
Abstract	Fish contains Docosahexaenoic Acid (DHA), which is good for brain development for children in utero and during their first years of life. However, fish is also the only source of Methyl-mercury, which is poison for the developing brain. In this paper, we propose an empirical framework to recover for the first time the causal effects of low- and high-mercury fish on cognitive development. This framework is validated with a simple but general consumption-price theory economic model. The model also shows that using an experiment that subsidizes the price of low mercury fish cannot identify separately the effects of low- and high-mercury fish on cognition. Therefore, results of such an experiment cannot inform public policy. Using our empirical framework and instrumenting fish catches with anomalies in sea surface temperature, we find that a higher catch of low-mercury fish around birth increases scores in high-school exit exams and school attainment while it decreases the probability of working in a blue-collar job. The reverse holds true: A higher catch of high-mercury fish around birth decreases scores in high-school exit exams and school attainment while it increases the probability of working in a blue-collar job. Our results have important implications for public policy: At the very least, fish should be labeled with its mercury content and with guidelines of the maximum consumption of the species per week for the population at risk.
Fecha	15/10/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Rafael Dix Carneiro | Trade and Labor Market Adjustment: Recent Evidence from Brazil

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rafael Dix Carneiro, Duke University
Fecha	10/10/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Dean Karlan | Why are Agriculture Profits Low? Experiments on Information, Risk and Access to Input Markets in Ghana.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Dean Karlan, Northwestern University
Fecha	08/10/2019
Hora	12:45 a 1:45 pm.

+ Ragan Petrie | Does Workplace Competition Increase Labor Supply? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ragan Petrie, Texas A&M University and Melbourne Institute
Coautores	Amalia R. Miller (University of Virginia IZA and NBER) y Carmit Segal (University of Zurich)
Abstract	This paper develops a novel field experiment to test the implicit prediction of tournament theory that competition increases work time and can therefore contribute to the long work hours required in elite occupations. A majority of workers in the treatment without explicit financial incentives worked past the minimum time, but awarding a tournament prize increased work time and effort by over 80% and lowered costs of effort or output by over a third. Effort was similar with alternative (piece rate, low-prize tournament) bonuses. Men worked longer than women in the high-prize tournament, but for the same duration in other treatments
Archivo
Fecha	26/09/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ David Bardey | Welfare Impacts of Genetic Testing in Health Insurance Markets: Will Cross-Subsidies Survive?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Bardey, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Philippe De Donder (Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM))
Abstract	Personalized medicine is still in its infancy, with costly genetic tests providing Little actionable information in terms of e¢ cient prevention decisions. As a consequence, few people undertake these tests currently, and health insurance contracts pool all agents irrespective of their genetic background. Cheaper and especially more informative tests will induce more people to undertake these tests and will impact not only the pricing but also the type of health insurance contracts. We develop a setting with endogenous prevention decisions and we study which contract type (pooling or separating) emerges at equilibrium as a function of the proportion of agents undertaking the genetic test as well as of the informativeness of this test. Our results show that, ceteris paribus, the higher is the proportion of tested agents, the more likely is the emergence of a separating equilibrium that implies some risk discrimination. However, a better pooling contract in which policyholders undertake preventive actions (and lower their health risk) can be attained if the informativeness of the genetic tests increases su¢ ciently. Once the proportion of tested individuals reaches a threshold, we move abruptly from pooling to separating equilibrium, which unambiguously decreases social welfare. Once the equilibrium is of the separating type, social welfare increases with the genetic tests take-up rate, thanks to a composition e¤ect.
Archivo
Fecha	24/09/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juan Moreno-Cruz | Estimating the marginal damage caused by climate change in the presence of farmer essential heterogeneity.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Moreno-Cruz, University of Waterloo
Coautor	Matthew Kahn (John Hopkins University)
Abstract	The farming sector's productivity is tied to local climate conditions. As climate change shifts weather, farmers will suffer larger profit losses if they are slow to adapt. We present a model featuring heterogeneous farmers who choose to invest in costly climate adaptation. At a point in time, the highest ability farmers will have already prepared for the current climate conditions while those who gain less from such investments will adapt more slowly. The model highlights the key role that essential heterogeneity plays in determining the relationship between climate conditions and aggregate county level farm output. Relaxing the representative agent assumption introduces several new testable implications of the adaptation hypothesis and points to frictions that limit the extent of adaptation.
Fecha	17/09/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Carlos Medina | Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Medina, Banco de la República Medellín
Coautores	Gaurav Khanna (UCSD), Anant Nyshadham (U Michigan), Christian Posso (Banco de la República) y Jorge Tamayo (Harvard Business School)
Abstract	We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass-layoffs, on criminal arrests using a novel matched employer-employee-crime dataset for Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate earnings losses, and an increased likelihood of being arrested for the displaced worker, and for other youth in the family. We leverage variation in opportunities for legitimate reemployment and access to consumption credit to investigate the mechanisms underlying this job loss-crime relationship. Workers in booming sectors with more opportunities for legitimate reemployment exhibit weaker criminality responses to job losses, as do those with better access to baseline consumption credit. Unlike previous work investigating the mitigative effects of unemployment insurance and safety nets, mostly in high-income low-crime contexts, we emphasize the role of economic incentives (i.e., legitimate reemployment alternatives and consumption necessity) and intra-household spillovers in criminality responses to job losses.
Fecha	10/09/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Karen Macours | Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Karen Macours, Paris School of Economics
Coautor	M. Caridad Araujo (BID)
Abstract	In 1997 the Mexican government designed the conditional cash transfer program Progresa, which became the worldwide model of a new approach to social programs, simultaneously targeting human capital accumulation and poverty reduction. Since then, a large literature has documented the short and medium-term impacts of the Mexican program and its successors in other countries. Using Progresa’s experimental evaluation design originally rolled out in 1997-2000, and a tracking survey conducted 20 years later, this paper studies the differential long-term impacts of exposure to Progresa at critical moments in childhood. To do so, we focus on two cohorts of children: i) those that during the period of differential exposure were in-utero or in the early years of life, and ii) those who during the period of differential exposure were transitioning from primary to secondary school. Results for the older cohort, in their early 30s at endline, show that the short-term impacts of differential exposure to Progresa on schooling are sustained in the long-run and manifest themselves in larger labor incomes, more international migration, and delayed fertility. The younger cohort, 17-20 shows similar differential impacts to those of the older cohort on schooling and a positive effect of differential exposure to Progresa on labor income expectations, pointing to the importance of exposure in very early childhood.
Fecha	3/09/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Franz Hamann | Resource Curse or Blessing? Sovereign Risk in Resource-Rich Emerging Economies

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Franz Hamann, Banco de la República
Coautores	Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania, and NBER) y Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Abstract	In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk–because it increases a country’s ability to repay–having more oil reserves increases sovereign risk by making autarky more attractive. We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact. We use the model to understand the mechanisms behind the empirical facts, and show that it supports them.
Archivo
Fecha	27/08/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Elisa Cavatorta | Does exposure to violence affect reciprocity? Experimental evidence from the West Bank

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Elisa Cavatorta, King’s College London
Coautores	Daniel John Zizzo (University of Queensland) y Yousef Daoud (Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and Birzeit University.)
Abstract	This paper studies how reciprocity is affected by exposure to violence in early age. We combine a research design that isolates the exogenous exposure to violence with a lab-in-the-field experiment to study how reciprocity in the forms of conditional cooperation and vindictive behavior in adolescents varies as a result of exposure to violence. We focus on young Palestinians in the West Bank region of the Palestinian territories. We find that exposure to violence affects reciprocity of Palestinian adolescents: youth more exposed to violence engage in more reciprocal behavior in both the domain of cooperation and that of aggression. Part of the effect is explained by changes in the beliefs about other people's behavior.
Archivo
Fecha	22/08/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Javier Mejia | The Network Formation Origin of Tribal Societies

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Mejia, New York University Abu Dhabi
Abstract	This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the study of tribal societies. This framework describes rational individuals who access resources through social interactions in a pre-modern productive system. It predicts that the interaction of three forces--technology, ecology, and interaction costs--determined the size, stability, and complexity of tribal societies. It shows that the way these three forces interact in the model is consistent with the history of human evolution. Moreover, it offers systematic cross-cultural evidence at a global scale and a set of case studies from Middle-Eastern and North-African tribal groups to support the theoretical predictions.
Fecha	20/08/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Gabriel Ulyssea | Trade and Informality in the presence of labour market frictions and regulations

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Gabriel Ulyssea, Universidad de Oxford
Coautores	Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke), Pinelopi Goldberg (Yale/World Bank) y Costas Meghir (Yale)
Fecha	8/08/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Xavier Duran | Why not Using the Wheel? Evidence from the Cambao Wagon Road in Nineteenth Century Colombia’s Andes

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Xavier Duran, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Holmes Paez (Universidad Javeriana) Camilo Torres (University of Aberdeen)
Abstract	The use of wheel transport for long distance trade (wheel henceforth) is an important technological advance of antiquity. However, slow adoption of the wheel is striking – for instance, sub-Saharan Africa and South America had not adopted it widely by early 19th century. Even more intriguing is slow adoption given the positive effects the wheel had on economic development. In this paper I examine why adoption of the wheel on the Andes was so slow. I use overlooked archival sources to document that the Cambao wagon road finished in 1885 was the first in Colombia and the Andes. A threshold technology adoption model calibrated using human and mule energy transport cost suggests that for pre-Columbian populations facing rugged topography it was efficient to select short steep routes for human porterage (and later mule pack) transport. In turn, short and steep routes generated path dependence and inhibited for centuries later adoption of the wheel that required new long zig-zagging routes. Only until the 1860s it became efficient to adopt the wheel on the Andes. Wheel route search cost and time, political interregional competition to build the road, and over-optimistic expectations over the adoption of railways explain the further two decade delay.
Fecha	6/08/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Daniel I. Rees | D. Mark Anderson - Public Health Efforts and the Decline in Urban Mortality

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Daniel I. Rees (University of Colorado Denver) y D. Mark Anderson (Montana State University)
Coautor	Kerwin Kofi Charles (Yale University)
Abstract	Using data on 25 major American cities for the period 1900-1940, we explore the effects of municipal-level public health efforts that were viewed as critical in the fight against food- and water-borne diseases. In addition to studying interventions such as treating sewage and setting strict bacteriological standards for milk, which have received little attention in the literature, we provide new evidence on the effects of water filtration and chlorination, extending the work of previous scholars. Contrary to the consensus view, we find that none of the interventions under study contributed substantially to the observed declines in total and infant mortality.
Archivo
Fecha	13/06/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sergio Urzúa | Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Sergio Urzúa, University of Maryland, College Park
Coautores	Ethan Kaplan y Fernando Saltiel, University of Maryland, College Park
Abstract	Augusto Pinochet's military regime ruled Chile between 1973 and 1990. A 1988 plebiscite reintroduced democratic rule to Chile. Voter registration began in February, 1987 and remained open through August, 1988. This paper assesses to what extent participation in a referendum on democracy itself affects long-term voting behavior. We implement a regression discontinuity design comparing long run registration rates and voter turnout rates for those who were marginally age eligible to those who were marginally ineligible. We find that 1988 Plebiscite participation increased voter turnout three decades later in the 2017 presidential election by 1.7 percentage points and voting in 1988 increased participation by three decades later in the 2017 Presidential election. Subsequent Presidential elections did not have a sizable or statistically significant impact upon 2017 voter turnout. Given the low turnout rates prevalent in Chile, the Plebiscite effect is 5.8% of total turnout in the 2017 election. Effects are larger for men and for those without a high school degree and in counties with a higher left-wing vote share. Effect sizes are large enough to have been pivotal in most presidential elections from 1989 to 2010. Our results suggest that voter turnout persistence from participation in an initial democratic election can help explain one party dominance in recently democratized countries.
Fecha	6/06/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Catalina Franco | How does relative performance feedback affect beliefs and academic decisions? Evidence from a field experiment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Catalina Franco, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract	I conduct field and lab-in-the-field experiments, with students preparing for a college entrance exam, to identify how receiving relative performance feedback affects students’ beliefs, performance and academic decisions. I elicit beliefs from all students about relative performance in weekly practice tests and provide feedback to treated students about their actual standing in the score distribution at a test preparation center in Colombia. Combining the panel dataset collected from the experiment with administrative data, I study impacts on: (i) relative performance beliefs, (ii) academic investments, (iii) academic decisions, and (iv) performance. First, feedback makes bottom performers invest less in academic inputs like taking practice tests and study time. Second, I find that top- and bottom-performing students receiving feedback are less likely to take the entrance exam. Third, heterogeneous effects by gender indicate that women do not change investments but lead the negative effect on exam taking, and are much less likely to gain admission despite similar performance in practice tests. Fourth, beliefs elicited with an incentive compatible task do not match the beliefs revealed by students’ actions. Overall, my results shed light on the potential discouragement effects of informational interventions on students with low academic performance.
Archivo
Fecha	23/05/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Marcelo Bergolo | Earnings Responses of Top Labor Incomes to Tax Changes: Evidence from a Tax Reform in Uruguay

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Marcelo Bergolo, IECON-UDELAR
Coautores	Gabriel Burdin (Leeds U), Mauricio De Rosa (PSE), Martín Leites (IECON-UDELAR), Matias Giaccobasso (UCLA)
Abstract	In this paper, we analyze how top income earners respond to personal income tax using micro-based administrative tax records from Uruguay during the period 2009-2014. Our identification strategy exploits a reform to Uruguay’s progressive labor income tax schedule that generates differential changes in tax rates across very similar taxpayers at the top of the income distribution. Based on this exogenous source of variation and a diff-in-diff empirical strategy we estimate elasticities on three margins of behavioral responses –intensive, extensive, income shifting– to (one minus) the top labor income marginal tax rates change. Our results in the intensive margin suggest low elasticities for the whole sample of top incomes earners of around 0.03, although higher elasticities for the sample of self-employed (0.43). The extensive margin elasticities of labor income for all top incomes are slightly above 0.2. Finally, we present suggestive evidence of income shifting from labor income tax base to corporate tax base.
Fecha	14/05/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Leopoldo Fergusson | The political economy of conflict and peace-building in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes y Juan Vargas, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract	Political obstacles to state building may explain the persistence of conflict and institutional weakness in Colombia. Based on our research from the past several years, we explore some of the reasons why several politically relevant sectors in Colombia encouraged, embraced, or at least did little to strengthen the state or change the country’s violent equilibrium. We highlight three broad mechanisms: The public good trap, the existence of political rents in a context of multiple dimensions and the vicious circle of clientelism and state weakness. Many of our arguments apply to post-conflict as well as to contexts other than Colombia, so constitute the building blocks of a political economy of conflict and peace building.
Fecha	09/05/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ José-Alberto Guerra | To segregate, or to discriminate - that is the question: Experiment on identity and social preferences

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	José-Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Mariana Blanco (Universidad del Rosario)
Abstract	We study, in a laboratory experiment, whether individuals use various sources of social group identity to segregate or to discriminate when facing the Dictator and the Trust Game. The former game is characterised by a simple resource reallocation between individuals, while the latter is potentially beneficial to both parties. In particular, we study group identity originating either from shared preferences, socioeconomic status or skills, while our control treatment is random assignment into the group identity label. We observe that, when facing the Dictator game, senders belonging to the high socioeconomic status group segregate in favour of their in-group members, but discriminate against them, which suggests they avoid interacting with low type receivers to prevent foregoing larger amounts. In the Trust Game, high socioeconomic status senders also discriminate in favour of low type members, because they (wrongly) believe their in-group receivers are less trustworthy. We find some evidence that common preferences explain in-group bias in the Dictator game.
Fecha	07/05/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jorge Higinio Maldonado | The Graduation approach for the reduction of extreme poverty: impact evaluation of Sembrando Oportunidades in Paraguay

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge Higinio Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Viviana Leon-Jurado (U Andes), John Gómez (Georgia State University), Daniel Rodríguez (U Andes), Laura Villa (U Andes)
Abstract	Rural poverty, a widespread problem for the Paraguayan government over the last decade, led to the implementation, in 2016 and 2017, of the “Sembrando Oportunidades Familia por Familia” pilot program, an initiative based on the graduation approach to reducing the incidence of extreme poverty in rural areas. Evaluating the intervention results is essential to understanding the effectiveness of this approach in reducing poverty in the Paraguayan context, where the government is in charge of its implementation. For this evaluation, an instrumental-variable impact evaluation and a results evaluation were conducted, showing significant positive changes in the treated households’ productive capacity and savings behavior as well in their perception of wellbeing. Results are useful for the design of a program that can help to effectively overcome extreme poverty in this and other developing countries.
Fecha	25/04/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Miguel Urrutia y Christian Robles Báez | Mercado y gasto social. La agenda pendiente para la equidad en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Miguel Urrutia y Christian Robles Báez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Tanto la alta concentración del ingreso como el regular desempeño económico de Colombia se explican, por lo menos en alguna parte, por las falencias que ha tenido su política fiscal. En este sentido, el artículo señala que una política fiscal robusta, con mayor gasto social y mayor recaudo tributario, es esencial para mejorar la distribución del ingreso y contribuir a un mayor crecimiento económico. Sostenemos que no existe un dilema entre un mayor peso del Estado en la economía y un mayor fortalecimiento de los mercados, ni tampoco un dilema entre crecer o distribuir. Por el contrario, proveemos evidencia teórica y empírica que apoya la idea según la cual una mayor equidad económica favorece un crecimiento económico mayor y más estable. De este modo, la política fiscal está en capacidad de mejorar las condiciones sociales de la población más vulnerable, no solo redistribuyendo mejor los recursos disponibles, sino también haciendo que estos sean mayores en el largo plazo.
Fecha	11/04/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jose David Lopez-Rivas | Spreading the word: The direct and spillover effects of a social norm intervention on residential water conservation behavior

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jose David Lopez-Rivas, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Interventions that use social norm information had proven effective in the context of natural resources and environmental concerns. However, the presence of interference between treatment units produces biased or lower-bound estimates. In pro-environmental programs, the interference could help to diffused desirable behaviors across the population. This paper reports the results of a randomized field experiment to promote residential water conservation behavior in Colombia. Using a multilevel design, I produce the variability to measure the direct effects (on the directly treated) and spillover effects (on the indirectly exposed). There are two levels of randomization. First, the level of saturation among villages, saturation refers to a percentage of the population that receives the treatment. Second, the treatment assignment across households. I find evidence that accounting for interference leads to higher effects than in previous interventions on residential water use. On average the treated reduce water use by 7.8% and spillovers by 4.9% compared to the control. The total causal effect is 16.5%. Moreover, the frequency of the report is essential; the information delivered up to 30 days has strong effects than 60 with a significant reduction of about 21.35% in the first. Regarding mechanisms, the spatial proximity is a strong channel to produce reinforcement effects on the treated, but weak in producing diffusion on spillovers.
Fecha	02/04/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Fernando Barrios Aguirre | Effects of innovative effort on different components of productivity: Evidence for the Colombian manufacturing industry

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Fernando Barrios Aguirre, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This document focuses on estimating the effect of innovative effort on productivity, when it is disaggregated in terms of productive technical efficiency and other compo- nents associated with demand and unit input costs . These components are developed and estimated from panel data. I show that demand shocks are the elements where the innovative effort affects in greater proportion. These results will be analyzed from the annual manufacturing survey (EAM) between 2003-2012 and the surveys of innovation and technological development for the manufacturing industry (EDIT) provided by the DANE between 2008-2012.
Fecha	28/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Héctor Galindo | The Role of Religious Competition in Non-Religious Conflicts: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Héctor Galindo, Universidad Javeriana
Abstract	This paper studies the role of competition between religions in non-religious armed conflicts. The study focuses on Colombia, a deeply religious country which for more than 50 years experienced non-religious internal armed conflict, and which in the last few decades witnessed an intense increase in religious competition. Two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences estimates show that establishing the first non-Catholic church in a municipality with a pronounced Catholic history substantially increases attacks by a left-wing guerrilla group. The effect appears to be persistent, or even increasing, over time. The estimates are robust to the use of a causally interpretable interaction-weighted estimator (Abraham and Sun, 2018) that reweights observations to undo the weighting implied by OLS in the presence of fixed effects. Further analysis suggests that the increase in guerilla attacks is associated with the expectation among guerilla groups that their membership will decline as a consequence of more intense competition for religious adherents.
Fecha	26/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Samuel Jaramillo González | Producción no mercantil en la economía capitalista

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Samuel Jaramillo González, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Este texto busca contribuir a la interpretación sobre la presencia muy notable en las sociedades capitalistas contemporáneas de actividades productivas de bienes y servicios que no son mercantiles. En las familias de los trabajadores contemporáneos algunos de sus miembros se dedican de manera exclusiva a generar a través del auto-suministro bienes y servicios que son decisivos para para la reproducción de todos los miembros de los hogares. E incluso los individuos que desarrollan tareas mercantiles estables, sean ellos asalariados o agentes mercantiles simples, dedican una parte apreciable de su tiempo adicional a realizar tareas de auto-suministro que no son remuneradas mercantilmente. Como en general los fenómenos económicos que no son monetarios tienden a ser invisibles, se tiene la impresión de que el peso de estas actividades no mercantiles es algo marginal. Pero estadísticas como los sondeos sobre el uso del tiempo muestran un panorama muy distinto. En términos globales en los hogares el tiempo de trabajo no remunerado tiende a exceder el tiempo destinado a actividades mercantiles. E incluso los individuos con vínculos laborables mercantiles estables, además de su jornada laboral pagada, trabajan un 50% más de tiempo en tareas de auto-suministro no mercantil. El enfoque de este texto parte de la noción de que este fenómeno no necesariamente está inducido por una lógica de comportamiento ajena a las referencias mercantiles. Nuestra tesis es que los trabajadores que están inmersos en una economía capitalista, sean ellos asalariados o agentes mercantiles simples, realizan decisiones entre dedicar su tiempo al trabajo mercantil o al autosuministro no mercantil, a partir de consideraciones mercantiles. Se aborda este tema utilizando dos variantes de la teoría del valor trabajo (con versiones relativamente peculiares, hay que advertirlo): la Teoría del Valor Trabajo Comandado de Adam Smith y la Teoría del Valor Trabajo Abstracto de Marx, en su versión de la Nueva Aproximación. Y sin embargo, a pesar de que estas elecciones siguen una lógica mercantil, está sobre-determinadas por circunstancias globales de relaciones de fuerza entre las clases, tanto en el plano estrictamente económico, como en lo jurídico y en lo ideológico. Se examinan tres casos pertinentes de este fenómeno: la autoconstrucción de vivienda, muy extendida en los países periféricos actuales; el trabajo doméstico no remunerado, que afecta especialmente, aunque no de manera exclusiva a las mujeres; y la creciente práctica que algunos denominan “prosumo” que consiste en desplazar hacia el consumidor parte de los procesos productivos de los bienes adquiridos mercantilmente con el fin de reducir su precio monetario. El texto indaga sobre el papel que desempeña esta actividad no mercantil en la parte mercantil de la actividad laboral, y por lo tanto en aspectos claves como la explotación efectiva, la magnitud del salario y la tasa de ganancia.
Fecha	21/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Tomás Rodríguez | Robust Information Aggregation Through Voting

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Tomás Rodríguez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Rune Midjord (Copenhaguen Business School) Justin Valasek (Norwegian School of Economics)
Abstract	Numerous theoretical studies have shown that information aggregation through voting is often fragile: Since the probability that any agent's vote influences the committee's decision becomes arbitrarily small in a large committee, voting behavior is very sensitive to the payoff structure. For example, when agents face payoffs that condition on their individual vote, then these vote-contingent payoffs drive voting behavior in large committees. In this paper, we consider a general model of voting behavior in large committees with vote-contingent payoffs and characterize the set of payoffs that lead to a unique equilibrium that aggregates information. Interestingly, we find that the existence of an equilibrium that aggregates information depends only on the ratio of relative payoffs agents receive for voting for the ex-post correct option given that the committee also selects the correct option. However, the uniqueness of the equilibrium that aggregates information depends on payoffs when the committee selects the incorrect option; for information aggregation to be robust, agents must be punished for voting with the committee for the incorrect option.
Fecha	19/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juan Esteban Carranza | La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Esteban Carranza, Banco de la República
Coautores	Fernando Arias Rodríguez, Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, Camila Casas Lozano, Alejandra Ximena González Ramírez, Stefany Andrea Moreno Burbano, Juan Sebastián Vélez Velásquez (Banco de la República)
Abstract	Actualmente, el valor agregado de las firmas manufactureras colombianas representa un poco más del 10% del PIB que, sumado a sus cadenas de valor, constituye alrededor de la tercera parte de la economía colombiana. Desde el año 2000, la producción manufacturera colombiana ha tenido un crecimiento sostenido, solamente interrumpido entre 2008 y 2009 por la crisis financiera internacional, y con una recuperación posterior a tasas de crecimiento relativamente bajas. Aunque este patrón de crecimiento replica el de la industria mundial, el crecimiento desde el año 2000 de la industria colombiana ha sido superior al mundial y al latinoamericano. De hecho, el periodo de 2003 a 2009 tuvo las tasas de crecimiento industrial más altas observadas en la economía colombiana durante las últimas tres décadas. En el documento ‘La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI’ respondemos a la pregunta ¿cuáles son los factores que determinaron el desempeño de las firmas manufactureras colombianas desde el año 2000? Determinar estos factores resulta fundamental para el diseño de políticas públicas que promuevan efectivamente la capacidad productiva de la industria nacional. Para responder la pregunta, en este artículo abordamos el análisis desde dos ángulos: uno ‘macro’, enfocado en los datos agregados de la industria y las variables macroeconómicas; y otro ‘micro’, basado en datos desagregados, firma por firma. En ambos casos, el análisis está informado por un entendimiento teórico de los mecanismos que determinan el comportamiento de las empresas.
Fecha	14/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Fabio Sánchez Torres | Los mejores parten pronto. Desempeño académico y el estatuto docente de 2002

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Fabio Sánchez Torres, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Zelda Brutti, Universitat de Barcelona (UB)
Abstract	En 2002, la carrera de los maestros de escuelas públicas colombianas se reformó a través de la introducción de un concurso de entrada selectiva y de nuevos incentivos de calidad (Decreto Ley 1278 de 2002). Esta investigación estima el efecto de esta reforma sobre el rendimiento de los estudiantes en la escuela secundaria (SABER 11). Se evidencia un efecto positivo y significativo - aunque pequeño - de la proporción de nuevos maestros en el rendimiento de los estudiantes. No obstante, este efecto positivo se atribuye a los maestros con los mayores puntajes en la prueba de ingreso a la carrera docente, siendo este resultado robusto a diferentes especificaciones econométricas. En adición, se encuentra que los maestros con los mejores puntajes en la prueba de ingreso presentan menores tasas de supervivencia dentro del sistema educativo.
Fecha	12/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Marcela Meléndez | Diagnóstico sobre las brechas económicas de género en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Marcela Meléndez, ECONESTUDIO y Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Nicolás Peña, ECONESTUDIO
Abstract	Las mujeres colombianas se encuentran en situación de desventaja frente a los hombres en los mercados de trabajo. Participan un 27% menos en la fuerza laboral, tienen una tasa de desempleo promedio 71% más alta, y trabajan semanalmente en promedio 17% más horas. Además, en promedio el 38% de sus horas de trabajo corresponden a trabajo no remunerado -oficios del hogar y tareas de cuidado de menores, enfermos y discapacitados, con lo cual, aunque su ingreso promedio por hora es sólo 2% más bajo que el de los hombres, su ingreso promedio mensual es 17% más bajo. Esto contrasta con los hombres que tienen jornadas de trabajo en promedio más cortas (de 55 frente a 64 horas por semana) y dedican solo 13% de su tiempo de trabajo a oficios no remunerados. El único fenómeno que afecta por igual a hombres y mujeres en promedio y frente al que no puede decirse con contundencia que hay una brecha de género ante a la cual es imperante actuar, es la informalidad (la diferencia entre las tasas de informalidad de mujeres y hombres es de 1%). El análisis de las brechas para distintos grupos de la población identificados por su rango de edad, su nivel educativo máximo alcanzado, la zona urbana o rural donde habitan, el lugar en el que se encuentran sobre la distribución de ingreso, el número de menores que tienen a su cargo, la rama de actividad en la que trabajan y la ocupación en la que se desempeñan, muestra que en los promedios se esconde un país muy heterogéneo, donde algunos grupos se encuentran en franca desventaja. Los números muestran que el vinculo de las mujeres con los mercados laborales mejora con el nivel educativo y la riqueza del hogar, y es mejor para las mujeres que no tienen o tienen pocos menores a cargo y para las mujeres que habitan en la zona urbana.
Fecha	07/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Francesco Amodio | Bribes vs. Taxes: Market Structure and Incentives

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Francesco Amodio, McGill University
Coautores	Jieun Choi, World Bank / Giacomo De Giorgi, University of Geneva / Aminur Rahman, World Bank
Abstract	Firms in developing countries often make informal payments to tax officials. These bribes raise the cost of doing business, and the price charged to consumers. To decrease these costs, we design a feedback incentive scheme for business tax inspectors that rewards them according to the anonymous evaluation submitted by inspected firms. We show theoretically that feedback incentives decrease the bribe size, but make firms facing a more inelastic demand more attractive for inspectors. A tilted scheme that attaches higher weights to the evaluation of smaller firms limits the scope for targeting and decreases the bribe size to a lesser extent. We test both schemes in a field experiment in the Kyrgyz Republic. Our intervention reduces bribes, average cost, and the price firms charge to consumers. Since fewer firms substitute bribes for taxes, tax revenues increase. Our results show that firms pass-through bribes to consumers, and that market structure shapes the relationship between firms and tax officials.
Archivo
Fecha	05/03/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Javier Guillermo Gómez | The natural interest rate in Latin America

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Guillermo Gómez, Banco de la República y Universidad del Rosario
Abstract	The natural interest rate is a critical building block in the evaluation of a monetary policy stance. We estimate the natural interest rate for the five largest Latin American economies. We follow the method in Laubach and Williams (2003), complemented with rational and survey inflation expectations and adapted to Bayesian maximum likelihood estimation. The model is the standard neo-Keynesian model, complemented with equations for the natural interest rate in nominal terms and the rational inflation expectations. We find that in real terms the natural interest rate trends down and remains above zero in the larger economies (Brazil, Mexico and Colombia), while it remains without a noticeable trend although closer to zero in the smaller economies (Chile and Peru). We also find that in nominal terms, the natural rate trends down, in most economies a consequence of the drop in inflation and inflation expectations. Regarding the policy implications, the natural interest rate still does not pose a critical challenge for monetary policy in Latin America, as it does in advanced economies (Ball 2014). Nonetheless, in Chile and Peru the natural rate in nominal terms is just above 2 and 3 percent, respectively, offering narrow room for expansionary monetary policy.
Archivo
Fecha	26/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jose Maria Barrero | The Micro and Macro of Managerial Beliefs

Lugar	C-307
Conferencista	Jose Maria Barrero, Stanford University
Abstract	I study how biases in managerial beliefs affect firm performance and the macro-economy. Using confidential survey data to test whether US managers have biased beliefs, I establish three facts. (1) Managers are neither over-optimistic nor pessimistic: their forecasts for future sales growth are correct on average. (2) Managers are overconfident: they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic or pessimistic depending on whether the firm is growing or shrinking at the time of the forecast. To quantify the micro and macro implications of these facts, I build and estimate a general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms may have biased beliefs and make dynamic hiring decisions subject to adjustment costs. Biased managers in the model overreact to changes in their firm’s profitability because they believe profitability is more persistent and stable than it really is. The model thus implies that a typical firm’s value would increase by 1.9 percent if it hired a rational manager. At the macro level, pervasive overreaction results in too many resources spent on reallocation. Welfare would be higher by 1 percent in an economy with rational managers
Archivo
Fecha	20/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Santiago Caicedo | "The Effects of Mandating Training in Firms: Theory and Evidence from the Colombian Apprenticeship Program"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Caicedo, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Miguel Espinosa (Universitat Pompeu Fabra Arthur Seibold - University of Mannheim)
Abstract	We study the effect of apprenticeship programs on firms and welfare, using novel administrative data on the universe Colombian manufacturing firms with at least 10 workers, and a unique reform to apprenticeship regulation. The reform simultaneously establishes apprentice quotas that vary discontinuously in firm size and lowers apprentices' wages. We begin by documenting that the policy is successful in increasing the number of trained apprentices more than threefold. However, the reform induces significant firm size distortions driven by heterogeneous firm responses. In sectors with high skill requirements, firms avoided hiring apprentices decreasing their size and bunching just below the regulatory thresholds. Firms in low-skilled sectors, on the other hand, increase their size and bunch just above the regulation thresholds in order to be able to hire more apprentices. As a consequence, the regulation results in most apprentices being trained in low-skilled sectors. We develop a simple theoretical model featuring heterogeneous training costs across sectors in order to rationalize and quantify these empirical findings. The key insight of the model is firms that train apprentices incur in an opportunity cost of spending time teaching and not producing. Therefore, when training takes more time, the opportunity cost is larger and firms avoid hiring apprentices. As training apprentices in high-skill sectors takes longer than in low-skill sectors. Finally, we use the model to analyze the welfare consequences of the regulation and study counterfactual policies.
Fecha	19/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Adnan Khan | Rules and the Allocation of Authority in Organizations: A Field Experiment with Bureaucrats

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Adnan Khan, Harvard Kennedy School
Coautores	Oriana Bandiera (LSE), Andrea Prat (Columbia), Michael Best (Columbia)
Abstract	Organizations use combinations of explicit performance incentives and rules prescribing behavior to motivate workers. However, monitoring of adherence to rules creates a second set of agents subject to their own agency problems. In this paper we provide a formal model of the effectiveness of performance incentives and worker autonomy in improving organizational performance. The model highlights the importance of the relative alignment of frontline workers and their monitors with organizational goals. We implemented a large-scale randomized control trial with the government of Punjab, Pakistan to provide the first experimental evidence on the effects of incentives and autonomy in a bureaucracy. We find that increasing procurement officers’ autonomy vis-à-vis their auditors improves prices paid by 7% throughout the fiscal year without reducing quality. Performance pay incentives reduce prices early in the year, but increase them at the end of the year when auditors have greater hold-up power, making the average effect of incentives zero. The results suggest auditors are less concerned with saving public money than procurement officers are. The results have important implications for the design of monitoring and anti-corruption policies.
Fecha	15/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Stephanie Majerowicz | Can Teaching be Taught? Experimental Evidence from a Teacher Coaching Program in Peru

Lugar	ML-512
Conferencista	Stephanie Majerowicz, Harvard University
Coautor	Ricardo Montero (University of Minnesota)
Archivo
Fecha	01/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Juan Sebastián Galán | Tied to the Land? Intergenerational Mobility and Agrarian Reform in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Sebastián Galán, Harvard University
Archivo
Fecha	31/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Jonathan G. Malacarne | The Farmer and The Fates: Locus of Control and Investment in a Stochastic Production Process

Lugar	ML-513
Conferencista	Jonathan G. Malacarne, University of California, Davis
Archivo
Fecha	30/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Valeria Rueda | Sex and the Mission. The conflicting effects of early Christian missions on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Valeria Rueda, "Sciences Po, Paris
Coautor	Julia Cagé
Archivo
Fecha	29/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Román Andrés Zárate | Social and Cognitive Peer Effects: Experimental Evidence from Selective High Schools in Peru

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Román Andrés Zárate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Archivo
Fecha	28/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Adriana Corredor-Waldron | Medicare Reimbursement Policy and Capacity Constraints:Evidence from Nursing Homes

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Adriana Corredor-Waldron, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Archivo
Fecha	25/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Santiago Velez-Ferro | Overcoming the Rural Hospital Theorem: Compulsory Social Service Allocation in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Velez-Ferro, University of Maryland
Archivo
Fecha	22/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Margaret Triyana | Commitment Contracts and School Competition for Smoking Prevention in Indonesia

Lugar	ML-512
Conferencista	Margaret Triyana, University of Notre Dame
Coautor	Justin S. White (University of California)
Archivo
Fecha	18/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Javier Romero Haaker | Price Shocks and Child Mortality: Evidence from Anti-Drug Policies in Peru

Lugar	ML-608
Conferencista	Javier Romero Haaker, Duke University
Archivo
Fecha	17/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Manuel Fernandez Sierra | Women's Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage Gap

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Manuel Fernandez Sierra, University of Essex - IZA
Coautor	Sonia R. Bhalotra (University of Essex)
Archivo
Fecha	15/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Misperceived Social Norms: Female Labor Force Participation in Saudi Arabia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Leonardo Bursztyn, University of Chicago and NBER
Abstract	Through the custom of guardianship, husbands typically have the final word on their wives’ labor supply decisions in Saudi Arabia, a country with very low female labor force participation (FLFP). We provide incentivized evidence (both from an experimental sample in Riyadh and from a national sample) that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support FLFP outside of home from a normative perspective, while they substantially underestimate the level of support for FLFP by other similar men – even men from their same social setting, such as their neighbors. We then show that randomly correcting these beliefs about others increases married men’s willingness to let their wives join the labor force (as measured by their costly sign-up for a job-matching service for their wives). Finally, we find that this decision maps onto real outcomes: four months after the main intervention, the wives of men in our original sample whose beliefs about acceptability of FLFP were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside of home. Together, our evidence indicates a potentially important source of labor market frictions, where job search is underprovided due to misperceived social norms.
Fecha	04/12/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “20 años de llevar el laboratorio al campo: repensando la pedagogía y aplicación de la economía”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Camilo Cárdenas, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	La economía experimental ha transformado la disciplina económica para siempre y para bien. Hoy tenemos mejores modelos de racionalidad gracias al conocimiento acumulado de replicaciones y regularidades encontradas en múltiples experimentos económicos. Las implicaciones de estas contribuciones en el diseño de mejores formulaciones teóricas y mejores diseños de políticas públicas e instrumentos económicos ya comienzan a aparecer con regularidad en los aparatos estatales y en el sector privado. La formación en estas áreas de la economía comportamental y experimental a nivel de posgrado en las escuelas de economía y de administración continúa creciendo. Sin embargo, la formación a nivel de pregrado sigue rezagada en términos de incorporar elementos esenciales derivados de la revolución comportamental. Desafortunadamente una fracción importante de los egresados de los pregrados de economía no son expuestos a estos nuevos desarrollos y después de su graduación se dedican a la práctica de la economía en el sector público, privado y social, con conocimientos que parecieran no haberse actualizado. En esta conferencia, basada en experiencias de trabajo caminando entre el aula, el laboratorio y el campo, haré un recorrido por este camino de usar métodos experimentales para estudiar el comportamiento humano, sus aplicaciones en campo, y la importancia de que exploremos al interior de la disciplina qué cambios podemos proponer para que la formación, especialmente en pregrado, se beneficie de estos desarrollos que ya llegaron a las minorías de posgrado.
Fecha	20/11/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Contracts, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Perez-Reyna, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Bernabe Lopez-Martin (Banco de México)
Abstract	We construct a framework of firm dynamics to evaluate the impact of the enforcement of contracts between final goods producers and their intermediate goods suppliers on firm life-cycle growth, technology accumulation and aggregate productivity. We build upon the tractable contracts model of Acemoglu et al (2007), where the final goods firm chooses technology in contractible activities conducted by suppliers of intermediate inputs. Suppliers select investments in noncontractible activities, anticipating the payoffs of a bargaining game with the producer of the final goods. We show that contractual incompleteness implies a wedge on profits for producers of final goods, potentially dependent on the level of technology of the firm, which disincentives technology accumulation at the firm level in our dynamic model. We evaluate this mechanism in general equilibrium to analyze its quantitative implications. Our model accounts for differences in output per worker of up to 33 percent across economies with complete and incomplete contracts. The impact on firm life-cycle growth, the age and size distribution of firms is quantitatively significant.
Archivo
Fecha	15/11/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Benchmarking a Child Nutrition Program against Cash: Experimental Evidence from Rwanda

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Craig McIntosh, School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego
Coautor	Andrew Zeitlin (McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University)
Abstract	We present the results of a study designed to ‘benchmark’ a major USAID-funded child malnutrition program against what would have occurred if the cost of the program had simply been disbursed directly to beneficiaries to spend as they see fit. Using a threearmed trial from 248 villages in Rwanda, the study measures impacts on households containing poor or underweight children, or pregnant or lactating women, as well as the broader population of study villages. We find that the bundled health program delivers benefits in an outcome directly targeted by specific sub-components of the intervention (savings), but does not improve household dietary diversity, child anthropometrics, or anemia within the year of the study. A cost-equivalent cash transfer boosts productive asset investment and allows households to pay down debt. The bundled program is significantly better in cost-equivalent terms at generating savings and worse for debt reduction, while cost-equivalent cash drives more asset investment. A much lar ger cash transfer of more than $500 per household improves a wide range of consumption measures including dietary diversity, as well as savings, assets, and housing values. Only the large cash transfer shows evidence of moving child outcomes, with significant but modest improvements in child height-for-age, weight-for-age, and mid upper-arm circumference (about 0.1 SD). The results indicate that programs targeted towards driving specific outcomes can do so at lower cost than cash, but large cash transfers drive substantial benefits across a wide range of impacts, including many of those targeted by the more tailored program.
Archivo
Fecha	06/11/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Trust in State and Non-State Actors: Evidence from Dispute Resolution in Pakistan

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Coautores	Ali Cheema, Asim I. Khwaja, and James A. Robinson
Abstract	Lack of trust in state institutions, often due to poor service provision, is a pervasive problem in many developing countries. If this increases reliance on non-state actors for crucial services, the resulting self- reinforcing cycle can further weaken the state. This paper examines whether such a cycle can be disrupted. We focus on dispute resolution in rural Punjab, Pakistan. We find that providing information about reduced delays in state courts leads to citizens reporting higher willingness to use state courts and to greater fund allocations to the state in two lab-in-the-field games designed to measure trust in state and non-state actors in a high-stakes setting. More interestingly, we find indirect effects on non-state actors. After receiving state positive information, respondents report lower likelihood of using non-state institutions and reduce funds allocated to them in field games. Furthermore, we find similar direct and indirect effects on a battery of questions concerning people’s beliefs about these actors, including a decreased allegiance to the non-state actor. We rationalize these results with a model of motivated reasoning whereby reduced usage of non-state institutions makes people less likely to hold positive views about them. These results indicate that, despite substantial distrust of the state in Pakistan, credible new information can change beliefs and behavior. The feedback loop between state ineffectiveness and the legitimacy of non-state actors may be reversible.
Fecha	01/11/2018
Hora	4:30 a 5:45 pm.

+ Improving Public Sector Management at Scale? Experimental Evidence on School Governance in India

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Karthik Muralidharan, UC San Diego and NBER
Coautores	Abhijeet Singh (Stockholm School of Economics)
Abstract	We present results from a large-scale experimental evaluation of an ambitious attempt to improve school governance at scale in India (implemented in ~1900 schools and randomized over ~5800 schools). The intervention consisted of several global best practices in school governance and included three main components: comprehensive school assessments by external school inspectors leading to customized school improvement plans, regular follow ups on progress with ongoing monitoring and support and leveraging ICT tools to make both assessments and progress visible throughout the education system. We report four main findings. First, the assessments were able to meaningfully evaluate school quality with scores being predictive of future student value-added and teacher absence. Second, though initial assessments (overseen by external consultants) were implemented well, subsequent monitoring by government officials was not affected by the intervention. Third, we find no impact on teacher absence, teacher effort in classrooms, student engagement or the engagement of School Management Committees. Finally, consistent with this, the intervention had no impact on student learning outcomes. Our results provide direct evidence of the challenge of improving service delivery at scale in developing countries and show how well-designed plans and programs fail due to poor implementation and state capacity.
Fecha	01/11/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Optimal Taxation in an Economy with Informality

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Daniel Wills, Universidad de Los Andes
Coautores	Rodrigo Azuero y Juan Manuel Hernandez (BID)
Abstract	Informality is a widespread phenomenon in developing economies with negative consequences on productivity and inequality. Several policies have been implemented to decrease informality such as decreasing corporate tax rates for small businesses, to make formality more attractive, or reducing payroll taxes to promote formal employment. However, these policies introduce a new set of distortions and it is not clear whether introducing them is optimal. Although the theory of optimal taxation in an economy has been widely studied, the informal economy has been largely ignored in this literature. In this paper, we fill the gap by developing a theory of optimal taxation in an economy with an informal sector. We construct a novel dataset combining a census of formal and informal businesses in Peru, administrative records from tax authorities and the national household survey in the country, which allow us to get a unique characterization of the informal economy that we use to quantify the welfare gains from imposing the optimal tax scheme in this economy.
Fecha	30/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Self-Selection of Motivated Agents into the German Police Force

Lugar	ML-514
Conferencista	Guido Friebel, Goethe University Frankfurt, CEPR, and IZA
Coautores	Michael Kosfeld (Goethe University Frankfurt, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA) and Gerd Thielmann (Deutsche Hochschule der Polizei)
Abstract	We conduct experimental games with police applicants in Germany to investigate whether intrinsically motivated agents self-select into this type of public service. Our focus is on trustworthiness and the willingness to enforce norms of cooperation as key dimensions of intrinsic motivation in the police context. We find that police applicants are more trustworthy than non-applicants, i.e., they return higher shares as second-movers in a trust game. Furthermore, they invest more in rewards and punishment when they can enforce cooperation as a third party. Our results provide clear evidence for self-selection of motivated agents into the German police force, documenting an important mechanism that influences the match between jobs and agents in public service.
Archivo
Fecha	24/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Social Norms and Dishonesty across Societies

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Diego Aycinena, Universidad del Rosario
Coautores	Benjamin Beranek (University of Nottingham), Lucas Rentschler (Utah State University), Jonathan Schulz (Harvard University)
Abstract	Social norms are a fundamental underpinning of institutions. Many studies have examined the role of social norms in explaining apparently puzzling behavior. In this study, we investigate the role of injunctive social norms (or normative expectations) regarding cheating behavior in the laboratory across societies. Specifically, we explore how the intensive margin of norm violations (regarding lying) relate to different actions (dishonesty) and differ across societies. We use experimental methods to examine injunctive social norms (subjects’ shared beliefs on the social acceptability of behavior) and descriptive social norms (subjects’ beliefs about others’ behavior). Using the individuals’ perception of the injunctive norms, we classify individuals according to into different types of normative systems and explore the implication of differences in normative perception types on behavior. We run these tasks across different countries (Guatemala, Turkey, Sweden, UK, US, China, India, Colombia and Kenya) that differ according to widely used macro-level indicators such as the Corruption Perception Index, Rule of Law Index, etc., and vary along complex kinship systems.
Fecha	23/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Unit Commitment, Opportunity Costs and Market Power in a Structural Model of Competition in the Colombian Electricity Spot Market”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Álvaro J. Riascos, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Juan David Martin (Quantil) y Juan Esteban Carranza (Banco de la República)
Abstract	We formulate and estimate a structural complex-bidding auction model for the Colombian electricity market. We investigate whether the current dispatch mechanism for electricity generation in the Colombian market, a centralized unit commitment mechanism introduced by Resolution 51 (2009), led to a reduction in the aggregate cost of energy compared the a counterfactual of self unit commitment that prevailed before 2009. Our model accounts for the presence of complex bids, multi-plant firms, and the dynamic incentives of both hydro and thermal generators. Using a bootstrapping approach, we estimate the primitive parameters of the bidders' marginal cost function. These estimates are used to simulate a counterfactual experiment in which we evaluate the social gains of a centralized unit commitment dispatch by simulating the prices and outputs between August, 2011 and December, 2012, assuming that the market mechanism was the self unit commitment format without complex bids. Our findings show that, although the new dispatch mechanism is on average associated with higher bid markups, the total cost of the energy produced was substantially lower in the new mechanism. As a by product, we compare estimated marginal and opportunity costs from our model with engineering marginal costs, a standard methodology in the non-economic literature. We find that engineering costs substantially under estimate the marginal and opportunity costs of our structural model.
Archivo
Fecha	16/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Making Sense of Piketty

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hernando Zuleta, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Andrés Álvarez y Camilo Gómez (Universidad de los Andes)
Fecha	09/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Aggregate And Distributional Effects Of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence From Bogotá’s TransMilenio

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Nick Tsivanidis, Dartmouth College
Abstract	How large are the benefits to improving transit in cities, and how are the gains shared between low- and high-skilled workers? This paper uses detailed tract-level data to analyze the construction of the world's largest Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system–TransMilenio–in Bogotá, Colombia. First, I build a quantitative general equilibrium model of a city where low- and high-skill workers sort over where to live, where to work, and whether or not to own a car. Second, I develop a new reduced form methodology derived from general equilibrium theory to evaluate the effects of transit infrastructure based on “commuter market access”, and use it to empirically assess TransMilenio's impact on city structure. Third, I structurally estimate the model and quantify the effects of the system. I find that while the system caused increases in welfare and output larger than its cost, the gains accrued slightly more to high-skilled workers. The incidence of public transit across skill-groups is determined not only by who uses it most, but also by how easily individuals substitute between commutes, whether the system connects workers with employment opportunities, and equilibrium adjustment of housing and labor markets. Finally, adjusting zoning regulations to allow increased building densities in affected locations would have led to higher welfare gains. This underscores the benefits to cities from pursuing a unified transit and land use policy.
Fecha	04/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Campaign Finance Policies when Contributions Mobilize Voters But Harm Public Projects.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Oskar Nupia, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Francisco Eslava (University of British Columbia)
Abstract	We build a political competition model with rational expressive citizens and contract-induced campaign contributors to analyze the welfare effects of campaign finance reforms. In this context, campaign spending positively affect citizens' welfare by reducing their voting cost and allowing them to express their political ideology through voting, and negatively affect their welfare by reducing the quality of public projects. This trade-off is different to the standard one analyzed in previous literature. We find that unrestricted campaign contributions are above the efficient level, but that banning contributions is not Pareto improving. Furthermore, taxing or subsidizing contributions while allowing for unrestricted contributions are not Pareto improving policies. Nevertheless, limiting campaign contributions or banning contributions and subsidizing campaigns are Pareto improving policies.
Fecha	25/09/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Project Selection and Strategic Information Disclosure

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Guillem Roig, Universidad del Rosario
Coautor	Nisvan Erkal (University of Melbourne)
Abstract	We consider a research competition model in which two asymmetric firms compete for two risky research paths. We study firms' incentives to disclose research outcomes in a model with private information and private learning. In the model, firms have opposing incentives to disclose their private information. One the one hand, information withholding helps to monopolize a research path, on the other, disclosure of information works as a signaling device. When information is disclosed, the learning process of the rival changes and he may abandon research earlier. An equilibrium where firms diversify and start with different research paths, is characterized with more disclosure of negative results than in a situation where firms cluster with the same research path. Even if diversification generates an inefficient allocation of resources, it incentivizes information disclosure, and if the arrival rate of information is slow, an equilibrium with diversification generates larger welfare.
Fecha	13/09/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The role of nonlinear pricing and resale price maintenance on nominal price stability

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge Florez Acosta, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract	This paper empirically examines the role of nonlinear contracts between manufacturers and retail stores, and Resale Price Maintenance (RPM) on nominal price stability. It is widely accepted in the literature that the incomplete transmission of costs shocks into retail prices is explained by the existence of markup adjustment and price adjustment costs. The vertical conduct of the industry and the existence of vertical restraints such as RPM might introduce further price stickiness or reinforce it. I present a structural model of vertical relations between manufacturers and retailers allowing for nonlinear contracts and vertical restraints, and accounting explicitly for retail price rigidity by including fixed costs of price adjustment in retailer's profit function. Using micro data on sales of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals from a large supermarket chain in Chicago, I estimate demand, retrieve upstream and downstream markups, and compute bounds of retail price adjustment costs under alternative vertical conducts. Results show that the total costs the retailer bears for adjusting prices of its products in a year lie between 1.6\% and 3\% of its total revenue, on average. In line with the theory, my model predicts larger upper bounds for adjustment costs under resale price maintenance than under simple linear pricing.
Fecha	11/09/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Uneven gains: a dynamic general equilibrium assessment of the US tax cuts on capital income

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	JOliver Pardo, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Abstract	This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households to assess the effect on welfare, distribution and economic performance of the US 2017 tax cuts on capital income. The simulation suggests that the cuts will lead to increases in investment, wages and output, although the welfare gains are quite unevenly distributed across households. Investment increases by 4.7% in the long run, leading to a 1.5% increase in the steady-state wages and a 1.9% increase in the steady-state output. However, there is a drop in tax revenue equivalent to 0.5% of the baseline GDP. Furthermore, the poorest households are going to be worse off unless the expending cuts necessary to balance the government budget are appropriately targeted. Welfare gains, aggregated across the lifetimes of all households, are equivalent to 11% of the baseline GDP.
Fecha	06/09/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Ethical Voting: Theory and Experiment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	José-Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Boris Ginzburg (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Warn N. Lekfuangfu (Chulalongkorn University and CEP, London School of Economics)
Abstract	Model the problem of a committee who needs to vote on decisions where members receive a private benefit from voting for an ethical alternative, regardless of whether it is adopted, and face a cost if the ethical alternative wins the vote. We investigate how the probability that the agent is pivotal affects equilibrium behaviour under different voting rules and committee sizes. If members have different depths of reasoning, institutions that reduce pivotality of each member, increase the number of votes for the ethical alternative. A laboratory experiment, within a charitable donation framing, confirms key theoretical results and uncovers a high proportion of strategically naive subjects.
Fecha	04/09/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "The Impact of Political Killings on Democracy and Governance: Evidence from Colombia”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ana Arjona, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Mario Chacón (New York University Abu Dhabi) y Laura García (Northwestern University)
Fecha	30/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Consumers' Costly Responses to Product-Harm Crises

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rosa Ferrer, Universita Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE
Coautor	Helena Perrone (Mannheim University)
Abstract	Exploiting a major food safety crisis, we estimate a full demand model for the unsafe product and its substitutes and recover consumers' preference parameters. Counterfactual exercises quantify the relevance of different mechanisms \textendash changes in safety perceptions, idiosyncratic tastes, nutritional characteristics, and prices\textendash driving consumers' response. We find that consumers' reaction is limited by their taste for the product and its nutritional characteristics. Due to the costs associated with switching away from the affected product, the decline in demand following a product-harm crisis tends to understate the true weight of such events in consumers' utility. Indeed, we find that a large fraction of consumers are unresponsive to the crisis even when they significantly downgrade their product safety perception. For an accurate assessment of the crisis, managerial strategies should therefore account for how different demand drivers bind consumers' substitution patterns.
Fecha	28/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The effect of drone strikes in Pakistan on terrorism and anti-US sentiment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Michael Jetter, University of Western Australia; IZA; CESifo
Coautor	Rafat Mahmood (University of Western Australia and Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
Abstract	This paper analyzes the consequences of the 425 drone strikes the US has conducted in Pakistan from 2006 – 2016. The existing literature provides arguments both in favor of and against the use of drones in combatting terrorism: On the one hand, drones are lauded for being a low-risk, affordable option that has killed key terrorist leaders and destroyed their communication channels. On the other hand, the civilian casualties termed as collateral damage are suggested to increase trauma in the civilian population, thereby facilitating the recruitment of prospective terrorists and inciting further terrorist attacks. We aim to isolate the causal effect of drone strikes on subsequent terrorism and anti-US sentiment. To do so, we employ an instrumental variable strategy using maximum wind gust as an instrument which substantially affects the employability and effectiveness of drones, but is otherwise orthogonal to the terrorists’ actions. Data on drone strikes and terrorism are obtained from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), while data from Google trends and a leading Pakistani newspaper, The News, are used to capture radicalization and Pakistanis’ attitudes toward the US. Our results suggest that maximum wind gust provides a powerful instrument in the first stage, predicting the day-to-day use of drone strikes by the US. Second-stage results produce a positive and statistically significant coefficient in predicting terror attacks in the upcoming weeks, suggesting that drone strikes encourage terrorism. The corresponding magnitudes are sizeable. Finally, the data from Google trends and The News suggest that US drone strikes are increasing radicalization and anti-US sentiment in Pakistan.
Fecha	23/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ When diversification clashes with the reinforcement heuristic: an experimental investigation

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	JSantiago-Ignacio Sautua, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract	I experimentally investigate diversification between two simple gambles. When subjects lack information about previous outcomes, a vast majority display a preference for diversification. By contrast, only a minority diversify after learning that one of the gambles has experienced better outcomes than the other. Subjects' posterior beliefs about winning probabilities affect diversification in this class of situations. However, most of the subjects who do not diversify tend to "chase" the gamble with better realizations, regardless of their beliefs. This behavior is consistent with subjects following a naive reinforcement heuristic. The findings are relevant for interventions intended to improve household financial outcomes.
Fecha	21/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Birth rates, factor shares and growth

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Álvarez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Camilo Gómez y Hernando Zuleta (Universidad de los Andes)
Fecha	14/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Optimal Short-Termism

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Alejandro Rivera, University of Texas at Dallas
Coautores	Dirk Hackbart (Boston University) y Tak Wang (SUFE)
Abstract	This paper studies incentives in a dynamic contracting framework of a levered firm. In particular, the manager selects long-term and short-term efforts, while shareholders choose initially optimal leverage and ex-post optimal default policies. There are three results. First, shareholders trade off the benefits of short-termism (current cash flows) against the benefits of higher growth from long-term effort (future cash flows), but because shareholders only split the latter with bondholders, they find short-termism ex-post optimal. Second, bright (grim) growth prospects imply lower (higher) optimal levels of short-termism. Third, the endogenous default threshold rises with the substitutability of tasks and, for a positive correlation of shocks, the endogenous default threshold is hump-shaped in the volatility of permanent shocks, but increases monotonically with the volatility of transitory shocks. Finally, we quantify agency costs of short-term and long-term effort, cost of short-termism, effects of investor time horizons, credit spreads, and risk-shifting.
Archivo
Fecha	09/08/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Facts, Alternative Facts, and Fact Checking in Times of Post-Truth Politics"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Oscar David Barrera Rodriguez, Paris School of Economics
Coautores	Sergei Guriev (Sciences Po), Emeric Henry (Sciences Po), and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (Paris School of Economics)
Abstract	How persuasive are “alternative facts,” i.e., misleading or outright false statements by populist politicians, in convincing voters? How effective is fact checking in countervailing the alternative facts? We conduct a randomized online experiment to address these questions in the context of the 2017 French presidential election campaign. Marine Le Pen (MLP), the extreme-right candidate who reached the runoff, regularly used misleading arguments in support of her policy proposals, to which mainstream media responded with systematic fact checking. We expose randomly selected subgroups of a sample of 2480 voting-age French to quotes from MLP containing misleading information about immigration and/or to facts from official sources. We find that alternative facts are highly persuasive: voters exposed to MLP rhetoric move their policy conclusions and voting intensions toward MLP. Fact checking does nothing to undo these effects despite improving factual knowledge of voters. In contrast, without fact-checking, exposure to MLP’s quotes moves posteriors on facts toward more extreme views away from the truth. Being exposed only to official facts increases political support for MLP while moving factual knowledge toward the truth.
Archivo
Fecha	29/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Can Wealth Taxation Work in Developing Countries? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juliana Londoño, UC Berkeley
Coautor	Javier Avila (DIAN)
Abstract	Countries considering using progressive wealth taxes to improve tax collection and curb rising inequality face enforcement challenges due to (legal) avoidance and (illegal) evasion responses by wealthy individuals---difficulties which are likely to be more pervasive in contexts with weak enforcement capacity. We study responses to wealth taxes and wealth tax enforcement using individual-level data from personal income and wealth tax returns in Colombia in 1993--2016 linked with microdata from the leaked ``Panama Papers." First, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in exposure to wealth taxes introduced by tax reforms and notches in the wealth tax schedule to estimate elasticities of reported wealth with respect to the net-of-tax rate. We find these elasticities are large and driven by misreporting items subject to less third-party reporting. Second, we find that increases in wealth taxes have triggered offshore tax evasion, with the wealthiest taxfilers obscuring their assets through offshore structures in neighboring tax haven Panama. Third, we study evaders’ responses to a tax amnesty that took place 2015-17. Evaders who voluntarily disclosed hidden wealth---and thus admitted to prior noncompliance---are among the wealthiest taxfilers in Colombia, and almost all of their fortune was concealed abroad. Halfway through the amnesty program, news of the Panama Papers leak broke and further encouraged evaders to disclose (at least part of) their hidden wealth. Finally, the amnesty program raised tax revenues from the wealthiest taxfilers and restored tax progressivity at the top of the distribution.
Fecha	22/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Using Exchange Rates to Estimate Production Functions: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Marcela Eslava (Universidad de los Andes), Santiago Franco (Universidad de los Andes) y Eric Verhoogen (Columbia University)
Abstract	This paper develops an instrumental-variables methodology for estimating production-function coefficients at the micro level using exchange rates as a source of exogenous variation in input prices. Prices on individual inputs and outputs, in conjunction with well-known results from index theory, are used to construct firm-specific CES price deflators for sales and input expenditures. The use of such deflators allows us to deal also with common biases from unobserved input and output prices and endogenous unobserved quality. We implement our approach using rich data from the Colombian manufacturing census, which includes information on prices and physical quantities of all outputs and inputs of firms, and customs records on all import and export transactions of Colombian firms. Preliminary results indicate that exchange-rate movements in source countries generate sufficient within-firm variation in input usage to estimate production functions of Colombian firms, and that our estimates of productivity differ from those of proxy-variable methods currently dominant in the literature in meaningful ways.
Fecha	17/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Impactos de la estrategia nacional de atención a la primera infancia “De Cero a Siempre” sobre el desarrollo de los niños

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Sara María Ramírez, (Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público)
Abstract	En este estudio se presentan los resultados de impacto de la expansión gradual de la estrategia nacional de atención integral a la primera infancia “De Cero a Siempre” (DCAS) que tuvo lugar entre 2011 y 2013 sobre los niños y niñas elegibles entre los 0 y 5 años de edad en Colombia. Con este objetivo se utiliza una metodología de evaluación cuasi experimental con base en datos secundarios disponibles en la Encuesta Longitudinal Colombiana de la Universidad de los Andes. La pregunta específica que contesta este estudio es si el aumento en la disponibilidad de cupos de atención integral a la primera infancia que ocurrió a partir de 2011 como resultado del lanzamiento de DCAS, tuvo efectos positivos sobre el desarrollo físico, cognitivo y socioemocional de los niños elegibles entre los 0 y 5 años de edad. La estrategia de identificación se basa en una metodología de diferencias en diferencias que explota la variación de oferta de cupos de atención integral a la primera infancia entre municipios, y la variación de esta oferta de cupos integrales entre diferentes de cohortes de niños en el mismo municipio. Los resultados indican un efecto positivo y de magnitud considerable sobre lenguaje receptivo en 2013, es decir inmediatamente después de la expansión de DCAS. De otra parte, no se observan efectos robustos sobre ninguna dimensión del desarrollo en 2016, 5 años después de iniciada la expansión.
Fecha	15/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Dancing with the Stars: Innovation Through Interactions

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Caicedo , Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago), Ernest Miguelez (Université de Bordeaux), Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard) and Valerio Sterzi (Université de Bordeaux)
Abstract	An inventor's own knowledge is a key input in the innovation process. This knowledge can be built by interacting with and learning from others. This paper uses a new large-scale panel dataset on European inventors matched to their employers and patents. We document key empirical facts on inventors' productivity over the life cycle, inventors' research teams, and interactions with other inventors. Among others, most patents are the result of collaborative work. Interactions with better inventors are very strongly correlated with higher subsequent productivity. These facts motivate the main ingredients of our new innovation-led endogenous growth model, in which innovations are produced by heterogeneous research teams of inventors using inventor knowledge. The evolution of an inventor's knowledge is explained through the lens of a diffusion model in which inventors can learn in two ways: By interacting with others at an endogenously chosen rate; and from an external, age-dependent source that captures alternative learning channels, such as learning-by-doing. Thus, our knowledge diffusion model nests inside the innovation-based endogenous growth model. We estimate the model, which fits the data very closely, and use it to perform several policy exercises, such as quantifying the large importance of interactions for growth, studying the effects of reducing interaction costs (e.g., through IT or infrastructure), and comparing the learning and innovation processes of different countries.
Archivo
Fecha	10/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Expropriation Risk, Misallocation and Aggregate Productivity

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jose Ignacio López - Universidad de Los Andes
Coautor	Virginia Olivella, Banque de France
Abstract	We propose a general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous firms and a government that is both unable to commit and relatively more impatient than firms. We find that expropriation risk is capable of endogenously generating misallocation of resources across firms when productivity shocks are persistent, with firms in the good states being affected the most by the contracting frictions, thus leading to losses in aggregate output and total factor productivity proportional to the wedge in the discount factor of the government and the private sector in the long run stationary equilibrium.
Fecha	08/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ On the Geography of Global Value Chains

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Pol Antras, Harvard University
Coautor	Alonso de Gortari, Harvard University
Abstract	This paper develops a multi-stage general-equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes.
Fecha	03/05/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Workplace incentives under imperfect information: An empirical study

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Miguel Martínez-Carrasco, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Francesco Amodio (McGill University)
Abstract	This paper studies how unobserved heterogeneity affects the response to incentives at the workplace. We develop a simple principal-agent model with asymmetric information over input quality and worker type, and test the model pre- dictions using personnel data from a Peruvian egg production plant. Exploiting a salient change in the worker salary structure, we show that heterogeneity along both margins of input quality and worker type significantly affects workers’ effort choice differentially after the implementation of the new incentive regime. We also find evidence that the change triggers learning among peers over the shape of the production function. Our study and results highlight how the presence of information asymmetries and imperfections in general affects the extent to which monetary incentives at the workplace shape workers’ effort choice and increase firm profits.
Archivo
Fecha	24/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Job migration in a rivalry setting

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Saavedra, Universidad del Rosario
Coautor	Robert Fletcher, Stanford University
Abstract	The importance of social networks in job search and migration have been well documented. However, spreading information too widely throughout networks when opportunities arise can easily lead to tragedy of the commons { too many people depleting a limited opportunity can mean no one benefits in the end. Hence, despite the generally positive value of large social networks, we should expect strategic sharing of information within networks. To better understand this, we study the co-migration decisions of social connections through the movements of gold miners in Colombia. Using this data, we document three facts that are nicely interpretable with a model of referrals and scarce resources. First, inviting social connections comes at a cost { inviting too many friends reduces production. Second, because of this, more productive miners choose to work with fewer social connections. Finally, the connections that miners are willing to invite are heavily selected; miners on average invite productive over non-productive peers.
Fecha	19/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Corruption, Customs Reform and Firm Growth: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachid Laajaj, Universidad delos Andes
Coautores	Marcela Eslava, Universidad delos Andes, Tidiane Kinda, International Monetary Fund.
Abstract	Abstract Customs are often prone to corruption because it concentrates a lot of discretionary power in the hand of customs officers who take decisions with high economic stakes for the firms, providing an opportunity for customs officers to extract a rent. Communication technologies offer the possibility to limit this discretionary power by reducing direct interactions between firms and customs officers. Combining firm level panel data on about 6,000 manufacturing firms with custom level data, we assess the effects on firms' growth of a computerization of import transactions that occurred sequentially in the 26 Colombian customs between 2000 and 2005. We apply a triple difference strategy that makes use of the variation between customs, time and the firms' exposure to the reform, based on whether it was an importing firm before it started. We find large effects of the computerization of imports on the growth of importing firms' inputs, investments and value added. We also provide evidence of a large increase of imports declared, taxes collected at customs, and a reduction in corruption cases following the custom reform.
Fecha	17/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Using Two-Part Contracts to Identify Complementarities Across Tasks: An Application to Family Doctors

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Paul Rodríguez, Universidad del Rosario
Coautor	Marcos Vera-Hernández, UCL
Abstract	Whether tasks are cost complement or subsitutes is crucial for the optimal design and ultimate success of any pay-for-perfomance scheme. We propose an empirical test for determining if tasks are cost complements or substitutes. The test requires that the reward scheme is piecewise linear, and that that there are changes over time on the rewards of some tasks. However, the reward scheme does not need to vary across agents, making it applicable to nationwide payfor- performance programmes. The test is based on the insensitivity of effort on a particular task to variations in the price of other tasks for agents who are bunched at the kinks. We apply our new test to The Quality and Outcomes Framework in the UK, which is the largest payfor- performance programme for primary care services in the world. We find that seven tasks are complements and one is substitute. Overall, our results indicate that pay-for-performance schemes should be successful because increasing the effort exerted in most tasks decreases the marginal cost of effort on other tasks, and consequently effort diversion does not take place. The results also has implications on how to design an efficient primary care system: one based on family doctors rather than specialists groups together tasks, which are complements in the cost function, and hence improves efficiency.
Archivo
Fecha	12/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Effects of Future Pension Benefits on Pre-retirement Labor Supply: Evidence from Chile

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Oscar Becerra, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	I estimate the effect of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply for a representative sample of Chilean workers. Using non-linear patterns in pension benefit formulas and a reform that changed non-contributory pensions, I estimate the effect of pension accrual and expected pension wealth on labor force and contributory-sector participation, labor earnings, and hours worked. I find that the main effect is related to the impact of pension accrual on the probability to contribute to the pension system. The effect is heterogeneous, and is concentrated among middle-age workers, among low-skilled workers, among workers with no financial assets, and among workers with higher levels of financial literacy.
Fecha	10/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Mechanism Design meets Development: Selective Trials for Technology Diffusion

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Pascaline Dupas, Stanford University, Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Coautor	Sylvain Chassang, Catlan Reardon and Erik Snowberg
Abstract	Many technologies require local experimentation before individuals can make successful adoption and usage decisions. Since information is a public good, technology adoption subsidies are an important component of development policy. We ask whether it is possible to enhance technology adoption schemes by targeting the most appropriate experimenters. Building on Chassang et al. (AER 2012), we design and implement a set of field experiments that let us study the building blocks needed for successful targeting: Are people heterogeneous in their ability as experimenters? Is this information known, and by whom? Can it be elicited and how? Can it be used to enhance the effectiveness of subsidies?
Fecha	05/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Social networks and entrepreneurship. Evidence from a historical episode of industrialization

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Mejía, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper explores the relationship between social networks and entrepreneurship by constructing a dynamic social network from archival records. The network corresponds to the elite of a society in transition to modernity, characterized by difficult geographical conditions, market failures, and weak state capacity, as in late 19th- and early 20th-century Antioquia (Colombia). With these data, I estimate how the decision to found industrial firms related to the position of individuals in the social network. I find that individuals more important bridging the network (i.e. with higher betweenness centrality) were more involved in industrial entrepreneurship. However, I do not find individuals with a denser network to be more involved in this type of activity. The rationale of these results is that industrial entrepreneurship was a highly-complex activity that required a wide variety of complementary resources. Networks operated as substitutes of markets in the acquisition of these resources. Thus, individuals with network positions that favored the combination of a broad set of resources had a comparative advantage in industrial entrepreneurship. I run several tests to prove this rationale.
Fecha	03/04/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Basis Risk & Willingness to Pay for a Weather-Based Insurance: Experimental Games among Colombian Coffee Growers.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Gómez Cardona, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Andrés Moya, (Universidad de los Andes). Stephen Boucher, (Universidad de California, Davis)
Abstract	The threat of climate change has make the need for better instruments to deal with crop variability a growing need. Weather insurance, particularly in the form of Index Insurance has been gaining increasing attention. While it has many advantages (i.e. lower cost, it is does not suffer from moral hazard), its biggest drawbacks are related with a non-perfect correlation of the index and crop yields. The possible yield losses that the farmers can suffer and that are not covered by insurance are known as basis risk. There are two types of basis risks. One coming from the presence of idiosyncratic risks that face the farmers and that are not covered by the Index Insurance (I). The other, coming for a not perfect correlation of the measures of the weather expressed by the index and the actual expression of the weather at the farm level (II). We design and apply an economics experiment among 403 coffee growers in 23 different municipalities in Colombia, during November-December 2017, to test the effect that these two different types of basis risks have on insurance take-up. Our results show that the basis risk that is produced by not perfect correlation of the index with the actual weather (II) do decrease the willingness to pay for the insurance, while the basis risk derived from the risk structure that farmers face (I) does not have a discernible effect on the willingness to access insurance for the full sample. Nonetheless these last type of basis risk (I) do have a positive effect on take-up for people with low education levels, while it is no present for high education levels participants. It also seem that the effects are particularly concentrated in women. Whenever they are significant the effect follows the direction that expected utility theory predicts.
Fecha	22/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Blessing a Curse? Institutional Reform and Resource Booms in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge Gallego, Universidad del Rosario
Coautores	Stanislao Maldonado (Universidad del Rosario) y Lorena Trujillo (DNP)
Abstract	Is it possible to revert the resource curse through institutional reform? Evidence suggests that there is a negative relationship between abundance of natural resources and economic growth, political stability, democracy, and peace. However, evidence illustrating how institutional reform can revert this situation is scarce. In this paper, we exploit an institutional reform that took place in Colombia in 2011. We evaluate the effects of the reform to the royalties system, that modified the allocation rule of these rents but also introduced important changes in terms of control and accountability, on the living standards of Colombian households. We instrument municipality-level allocations of royalties using international variations in the price of oil, and we find that the reform had important effects on several household welfare indicators. We find positive impacts on important dimensions, such as poverty, income, employment, housing conditions, health, and education, among others. Results are mixed or null in other areas, such as formality or employment in the service sector. We test for different channels explaining these effects, which include theories of state capacity, competition for resources, and increased control and accountability. Our evidence supports the state capacity mechanism.
Archivo
Fecha	15/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Telling schools apart: the role of preferences, restrictions, and the ability to differentiate in school choices”.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Diego Amador, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Nicolás Grau (Universidad de Chile), Juan-Andrés Castro (Universidad de Chile)
Abstract	We specify and estimate a static model of elementary school choice that differentiates between preferences for academic quality, the ability to tell apart schools of different quality, and restrictions in terms of schools available to households. We estimate the model using a combination of administrative and survey data from Chile, which includes rich information on how parents compare the academic quality of schools. We find evidence of a strong interaction of preferences and perceptions about quality in determining school choices and in explaining differentials in terms of the academic quality of schools attended by students of different socioeconomic backgrounds. The limitations in the ability of parents to compare schools that we estimate have important implications for market oriented educational systems, which rely on parents choices to improve quality through competition.
Fecha	13/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ More than One Hundred Years of Improvements in Living Standards: The Case of Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Adolfo Meisel-Roca, Central Bank of Colombia
Coautores	Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri y María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, Central Bank of Colombia
Abstract	We examine the long-term trends observed in the living standard of the Colombian population during the past one hundred years. We construct a historical index of human development for Colombia (HIHDC) for the 19th and 20th centuries by gender. We find that there were no major advances in living standards during the nineteenth century due to the stagnation of Colombia’s GDP per capita as a result of the lack of dynamism in exports. On the contrary, significant advances in all components of the HIHDC were seen in the twentieth century, especially those for women. During the first half of the century, improvements in the quality of life were mainly driven by a higher per capita income, while improvements after the 1950s were driven by greater public investment, for example, in education and health. Next, we analyze health achievements. We construct a new dataset using statistics reported by the Colombian government, which included annual information on the main diseases and causes of mortality during the period of 1916-2014 disaggregated by territorial units. The data show that the percentage of deaths from tuberculosis, pneumonia, and gastrointestinal diseases decreased significantly throughout the century. On the contrary, deaths caused by cancer and heart diseases have increased considerably in recent decades. Econometric results show that the decline in the total mortality rate and in the mortality rate for waterborne diseases was largely related with the expansion of aqueducts and sewerage services.
Archivo
Fecha	08/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Child Nutrition in Argentina and Colombia: does family structure play a role?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	María Muniagurria, Wisconsin-Madison, Profesora Visitante en Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes
Coautora	Beatriz Novak, El Colegio de México
Abstract	Investments in child health result from decisions by parents, other family members, governments and other groups. Both family and community environments matter for child well-being and interventions have the potential of changing adulthood outcomes. Family environments differ in the quality and quantity of household resources, child-rearing inputs and attention from parents and other family members. The particular structure of a family affects all these dimensions. Several studies have identified links between family structure and child nutrition in Latin American countries. However, their results are hard to compare – and in many cases contradictory- due to their particular characteristics. The goal of this research is to provide new evidence on the existence of differences in nutritional outcomes by family structure in Latin America. Using the Encuesta Longitudinal Colombiana de la Universidad de los Andes (ELCA) and building on our earlier work, our research aims at: (1) studying the determinants of young children’s nutritional status and evolution in Colombia, especially family structure and stability, (2) comparing the Colombian findings to the ones for Argentina.
Archivo
Fecha	06/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Una Medición de Desempeño Municipal para la inversión orientada a resultados

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Perez Burgos, DNP
Coautores	Natalie Gomez (DDDR-DNP) y Dalma Ariza (DDDR-DNP)
Abstract	Después de 10 años de medición del Indice de Desempeño Integral-IDI, el Departamento Nacional de Planeación lanza una nueva Medición de Desempeño Municipal-MDM orientada a la evaluación de la descentralización mediante la gestión y los resultados de desarrollo de las Entidades Territoriales. El IDI como primera medición de desempeño dejó lecciones importantes pero presentaba desafíos metodológicos entre ellos baja calidad de la información por ser de auto-reporte, mezcla de metodologías de agregación, así como ausencia de indicadores de resultados esencial en una evaluación de la descentralización. La nueva medición reconoce la heterogeneidad del país en términos de capacidades iniciales de las ET, permite medir mejoras en el bienestar de la población como fin último de la gestión y la descentralización, y busca ser un primer instrumento para incentivar el "pago" por resultados de las ET.
Fecha	01/03/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Hacia el Mercado de Capitales que Colombia necesita: Retos estructurales”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Pablo Córdoba Garcés, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia
Coautora	Estefanía Molina Ungar, Bolsa de Valores de Colombia
Abstract	Aunque no se puede desconocer la transformación que ha atravesado el mercado de capitales colombiano en las últimas dos décadas, su desarrollo futuro requiere superar una serie de retos estructurales. De lo contrario, existe el riesgo de que éste se estanque (como ha ocurrido en los últimos cinco años) o, incluso, que se marchite, dejando de cumplir adecuadamente el rol que le corresponde dentro de la economía. Este documento propone seis ejes de trabajo, que deberían servir como punto de partida para establecer una hoja de ruta para promover el desarrollo de este mercado: (1) definición de una visión de largo plazo; (2) estímulo al mercado de capitales como complemento al sector bancario tradicional; (3) estructura competitiva y de propiedad del sistema financiero; (4) competencia global; (5) competitividad tributaria; y (6) integración regional.
Fecha	27/02/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hernán Rincón-Castro, Banco de la República
Coautora	Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas, Universidad Nacional
Abstract	In this paper I investigate the “little divergence” of late medieval and early modernEurope, focusing on the long run response of real wages to demographic changes.Through a quantitative analysis of the 14th-18th centuries series of real wages and population shocks in fourteen European cities, I find that in four north-western cities(Amsterdam, Antwerp, London, and Oxford) the urban real wages were detached from population before the Industrial Revolution, while, in the central and southern Europe wages had a moderate or negative response to population changes. In addition, I show that this different response dates back to the 16th century. I claim, that these two results support three possibly non alternative interpretations of the “little divergence”,either based on changes of fertility regimes, rural and urban labor organizations, or on the onset, in early modern north-western Europe, of non strictly Malthusian growth mechanisms.
Archivo
Fecha	26/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Origins of Europe’s North-South Divide: Population Changes, Real Wages and the ‘Little Divergence’ in Early Modern Europe

Lugar	SD-715
Conferencista	Mattia Fochesato, New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE
Abstract	In this paper I investigate the “little divergence” of late medieval and early modernEurope, focusing on the long run response of real wages to demographic changes.Through a quantitative analysis of the 14th-18th centuries series of real wages and population shocks in fourteen European cities, I find that in four north-western cities(Amsterdam, Antwerp, London, and Oxford) the urban real wages were detached from population before the Industrial Revolution, while, in the central and southern Europe wages had a moderate or negative response to population changes. In addition, I show that this different response dates back to the 16th century. I claim, that these two results support three possibly non alternative interpretations of the “little divergence”,either based on changes of fertility regimes, rural and urban labor organizations, or on the onset, in early modern north-western Europe, of non strictly Malthusian growth mechanisms.
Fecha	26/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Peer Effects in After-School Programs. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Lelys Dinarte, Universidad Católica de Chile
Abstract	This paper provides experimental evidence of the overall impact of an after-school program on students’ outcomes, and of the role of having different levels of violent peers in that context. Participants were between 10-16 years old and enrolled in public schools in El Salvador. I find that the program reduced bad behavior reports by 0.17 standard deviations, school absenteeism by 23%, and increased school grades by 0.11-0.13 standard deviations. Changes in highly violent students mainly drove the results. Regarding group composition, results indicate that integrating students with different propensities for violence was better than segregating them. Moreover, there is an interaction between the group composition and individual baseline propensity for violence: the intervention can have unintended effects if highly violent students are segregated and treated separately from their less violent peers. Finally, I find positive social spillover effects for non-enrolled children exposed to treated students.
Fecha	25/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Targeted or Universal? Mobilizing Students Through School Vouchers

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Cristián Sánchez, University of Maryland
Abstract	This paper studies how students and schools respond to tuition voucher policies, in a context in which both a universal voucher and a targeted voucher are used to subsidize enrollment. In particular, I investigate whether an increase in the universal voucher is more or less effective in increasing students' access to schools than an equally costly increase in the targeted voucher. To this end, I develop and estimate a structural model of demand and supply of schools for Chile's elementary education system, that accounts for private schools' decision to join the targeted voucher program, as well as for their decision on which level of tuition to charge. I find that no policy is economically superior to the other, but they do imply different responses by schools and students. Specifically, a higher universal voucher induces schools to lower their tuition; whereas a higher targeted voucher attracts more schools to join the targeted voucher program, thereby enlarging the set of schools that predominantly serve disadvantaged students. I also find that the majority of the students that switch schools under both policies, move to schools of higher quality. This is true for both disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students. Finally, families' spending decreases under the universal voucher policy, which is a direct consequence of schools lowering their tuition.
Fecha	23/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Time-Varying Capital Intensities and the Hump-Shaped Evolution of Economic Activity in Manufacturing

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Luis Felipe Sáenz, University of Illinois
Abstract	Manufacturing's share of employment is known to follow a hump-shaped pattern as economies structurally transform. Motivated by the observation that capital intensities in manufacturing increase over the development process, this paper examines whether such changes are important in accounting for the hump-shaped pattern in manufacturing employment shares as well as the decline in agriculture and the rise in services. It does this by putting forth a model of the structural transformation that allows for varying rates of technological rates, long-run Engel curves, international trade, as well as time-varying capital intensities. The model is calibrated to the experience of South Korea between 1970 and 2010 and the importance of these four factors for the structural transformation is analyzed. The main finding is that whereas heterogeneous rates of technological change, long-run Engel curves and international trade are important for accounting for various elements of the structural transformation, only time-varying capital intensities are critical for generating the hump-shaped pattern in manufacturing employment fairly close. Time-varying capital intensities are the additional "labor push" needed to explain the observed movement of labor out of manufacturing
Fecha	18/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Land Redistribution and Crop Choice: Evidence from Reform and Counter-Reform in Chile

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Nicolás A. Lillo Bustos, University of Warwick
Abstract	This paper uses unique historical data on the Chilean land reform of the 1960s and 1970s to estimate the impact that redistribution had on land inequality and crop choice. The results show that land redistribution had a persistent negative eﬀect on land inequality, and that areas that were treated with more reform increased their share of land cultivated with fruits, vegetables, and vineyards, and lowered the share of land destined to forest plantations. The fact that a military coup interrupted the reform process allows for the comparison of the eﬀects of reform and counter-reform, which sheds light on the mechanisms through which redistribution operated. I ﬁnd that land that was transferred to new owners drive the results for crop choice, but not those for land inequality.
Fecha	16/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Deconstructing Job Search"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Benjamín Villena, Universidad de Chile
Coautores	S. Banfi, Ministerio de Energía de Chile, and S. Choi, University of Bristol
Abstract	In this paper we empirically investigate job search, specifically how a number of theoretically relevant variables impact behavior in an online setting. We take advantage of an unusually rich proprietary dataset from a Chilean job board to document and interpret a number of facts. We focus on how application behavior is influenced by (1) several demographics such as gender, age, and marital status, (2) alignment between applicants wage expectations and job ad wage offers, (3) applicant fit into job ad requirements in terms of education and experience, (4) timing variables, including unemployment duration, job tenure (for on-the-job searchers), and vacancy duration. We relate our results to a variety of theoretical models and discuss how our findings can be used to discipline current (and future) job search models.
Archivo
Fecha	21/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Price-cap policy in colombian drugs market: an impact evaluation

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Bardey y Arturo Harker de la Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Daniela Zuluaga (Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social)
Abstract	Este artículo evalúa el impacto de una regulación por precios techo aplicados en el sector farmacéutico colombiano entre 2011 y 2014. Por medio de un modelo de triples diferencias y la utilización de datos panel, se exploran distintas fuentes de variación como: i) la existencia de 18 grupos de medicamentos comparables por ser competidores terapéuticos con la misma composición química, ii) los grupos de tratamiento y control dentro de cada clase terapéutica (ATC) y iii) la comparación antes y después de la regulación. Se incluyen efectos jos de tiempo y se utilizan errores tipo cluster. Se encuentra que la regulación por precios techos solo logro reducir los precios en 3 de los 18 grupos estudiados y aumento para 10 de ellos. Se confirma entonces que el efecto punto focal de los precios techos puede desvirtuar este tipo de regulación. En el caso estudiado, la regulación por precios techos ha contribuido en aumentar los gastos en medicamentos de 19,9% sobre las 18 grupos ATC consideradas.
Fecha	16/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Capital requirements and cross-subsidization across banks

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Perez-Reyna, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Enoch Hill (Wheaton College) y Kai Ding (Cal State East Bay)
Abstract	When depositors cannot distinguish between banks of different risk levels, safer banks subsidize riskier banks since all banks pay the same deposit rate. We study how cross-subsidization across banks of different risk levels affects the optimal capital requirement. In this environment the optimal capital requirement features an interior solution: a tightening of capital requirements initially constraints lending by risky banks and allows safer banks to lend more. However, too tight requirements constraint lending by all banks. Therefore risk-based capital requirements allow the Social Planner to account for the riskiness of banks. However, when information about riskiness is imprecise, a flat capital ratio is the solution to the Ramsey’s problem.
Fecha	14/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Grupos mixtos y gestión de recursos naturales. Evidencia experimental para el manejo del manglar en el Pacífico Nariñense

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Yady Marcela Barrero A., Universidad de Los Andes
Abstract	La gestión de recursos naturales involucra la toma de decisiones de forma colectiva, en algunos contextos contando con la participación de hombres y mujeres, lo que se convierte en un elemento de interés en la discusión sobre la sostenibilidad de los recursos naturales. Esta investigación busca analizar la influencia de la composición grupal por género sobre la gestión de los recursos de uso común. El estudio considera el caso del manglar en Iscuandé (Nariño) donde la sobre-extracción de piangua llevó a suscribir un acuerdo entre la comunidad y Conservación Internacional. Allí hombres y mujeres extraen recursos y han participado de las actividades del acuerdo. Se realizaron juegos económicos experimentales con 308 habitantes de las veredas del territorio simulando decisiones de inversión en la conservación del manglar como bien público y decisiones de extracción de piangua, controlando por la conformación de género en los grupos de cuatro participantes. Se encuentra un efecto importante de la composición del grupo; en particular, quienes conformaron grupos mixtos de mayoría femenina (tres mujeres y un hombre) son los que mejor responden a los espacios de gestión colectiva. Estos grupos aportan significativamente más a la inversión en el cuidado del manglar que todos los demás tipos de grupos. Además, reducen notoriamente sus patrones de extracción como respuesta a las acciones de inversión en el cuidado del manglar y a la comunicación. Tales efectos son robustos a la inclusión de controles relacionados con los juegos y el contexto de las comunidades locales. Usando elementos de la sicología social y evolutiva se sugieren algunas explicaciones para comprender los comportamientos diferenciales en estos grupos.
Fecha	09/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Weak Competitors and First-Mover Advantages: How Brewing Moved West in the United States

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Eduardo Hernandez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	I study the role of weak competitors on the dynamics of output location within an industry. I focus on the relocation of brewing in the US after the invention of pasteurization in the late nineteenth century. Pasteurization reduced the marginal cost of shipping beer for breweries willing to build bottling plants, allowing for the endogenous formation of regional beer markets that would later integrate into a national market. Using a brewery-level dataset that I constructed, I show that the endogenous adoption of bottling allowed for the early expansion of breweries that would later become leaders in the industry. These breweries were located in the Midwest, near previously isolated towns with weak or no competitors. The initial expansion of Midwestern breweries occurred mainly through shipments within the Midwest, as opposed to shipments from the Midwest to the East Coast. Later, when trade costs between the Midwest and the East Coast fell further, Midwestern breweries became leaders in the national market thanks to first-mover advantages in bottling and beer quality. My results are consistent with an extension of the endogenous sunk cost framework developed in Sutton (1991).
Fecha	07/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Value of Smarter Teachers: International Evidence on Teacher Cognitive Skills and Student Performance

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Eric A. Hanushek, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Coautores	Marc Piopiunik (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) y Simon Wiederhold (Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt)
Abstract	International differences in teacher quality are commonly hypothesized to be a key determinant of the large international student performance gaps, but lack of consistent quality measures has precluded testing this. We construct country-level measures of teacher cognitive skills using unique assessment data for 31 countries. We find substantial differences in teacher cognitive skills across countries that are strongly related to student performance. Results are supported by fixed-effects estimation exploiting within-country between-subject variation in teacher skills. A series of robustness and placebo tests indicate a systematic influence of teacher skills as distinct from overall differences among countries in the level of cognitive skills. Moreover, observed country variations in teacher cognitive skills are significantly related to differences in women’s access to high-skilled occupations outside teaching and to salary premiums for teachers.
Fecha	02/11/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ How Much Could We Save From Investments in Preventive Child Health Care?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Adriana Camacho, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Miguel Ortiz, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper quantifies the returns to investment in preventive child health care regarding the reduction in the number of hospitalizations and emergency room visits in Bogotá, Colombia. Using administrative data for the years between 2003 and 2007, we construct a panel that includes consultation, emergency room visits and hospitalization at the individual level for children between the ages of 0 to 5. This panel allows us to follow all health services used by each individual throughout this period. We exploit the exogenous variation of an amendment to the legislation in 2004 that introduced the abolition of fees for preventive health care services for children under the age of one year for a specific health regime. We follow an instrumental variable approach to identify that an additional medical consultation visit, caused by the amendment benefits, reduces hospitalization in 0.039 units and emergency visits in 0.16 units in a given year. These results are robust to different time windows specifications. Moreover, long-term effects indicate that children who benefited from this reform have fewer hospitalizations and fewer consultations during their first five years of life, and a cost-benefit analysis concludes that the policy saves $64,533 per child yearly.
Fecha	31/10/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Money and Politics: The Effects of Campaign Spending Limits on Political Competition and Incumbency Advantage

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Claudio Ferraz, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)
Coautores	Eric Avis (UC Berkeley), Frederico Finan (UC Berkeley), and Carlos Varjão (Stanford)
Abstract	This paper examines the effects of campaign spending limits on political competition and incumbency advantage. We study a reform in Brazil that imposed limits on campaign spending for mayoral elections. These limits were implemented with a discontinuous kink which we exploit for causal identification. We find that stricter limits increase political competition by creating a larger pool of candidates that is on average less wealthy. Moreover, we find that stricter spending limits reduce the incumbency advantage, causing mayors to be less likely to be reelected. These findings are consistent with a contest model with spending caps and endogenous candidate entry.
Archivo
Fecha	12/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Legacies of War: How Does Conflict Shape Migration Responses to Negative Weather Shocks?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ana María Ibáñez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Ana Arjona (Northwestern University), Julián Arteaga, Juan Camilo Cárdenas y Patricia Justino (Institute of Development Studies)
Abstract	This paper explores the economic legacies of conflict through a particular transmitting mechanism: war-time institutions. The empirical strategy causally identifies household responses to random weather shocks and estimates its heterogeneous impact by the extent of armed group interventions on the communities. Using a household panel in four conflict regions in Colombia, the estimation controls for time invariant unobservables. The study finds that war-time institutions have large and persistent economic impacts. In regions with strong interventions from non-state armed actors (NSAA), households are better able to cope with negative weather shocks compared to those living in regions with NSAA presence but with limited or no interventions. The former households resort less to survival migration and transfers from social networks, while using formal credits and non-agricultural activities to offset the negative income shock. Strong interventions from NSAA seemingly reduce uncertainty and provide a predictable environment in which civilians can better operate, pushing these households to engage in more profitable activities and a higher income trajectory. Conflict exerts a negative economic impact on households, yet this negative impact is lower if NSAA provide clear and stable rules.
Fecha	24/10/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Governance in a Context of Weak Accountability: Citizens’ Contributions and Misappropriation of Public Funds

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ruth Guillen, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	In this paper I study, through a laboratory experiment, how voluntary contributions to finance the production and distribution of public goods evolve in a context of weak accountability. Also, I evaluate the effects of three institutions, based on binding and non-binding communication, rather than pecuniary punishments, to promote contributions and reduce misappropriation, within this scenario of weak accountability. In the baseline setting of the experiment, similar to the standard public goods game, people decide simultaneously the amount of their endowment they want to place in a public fund that doubles in value before it is distributed among all players. However, a randomly selected player (allocator) decides how to distribute the social surplus generated from the voluntary provision, including the possibility of capturing part of the rents; the allocator does not face a formal punishment for the decisions he makes. I test the following types of signaling among group members against a baseline scenario: i) sending a non-binding message, ii) sending a binding message, and iii) sending a message of satisfaction. Both students and actual public officers participated, including public officers who are familiar with making decisions about the distribution of public resources. Results show that contributions in a context of weak accountability do not decrease significantly over time. Also, I find that sending a message of satisfaction from contributors to allocators might be an effective policy to promote cooperation from those who contribute to the public good. Furthermore, sending a binding message from allocators to beneficiaries constrained their opportunistic behaviors regarding the appropriation of public resources when participants were students; I do not find significant effects linked to sending a non-binding message.
Fecha	19/10/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Should we blame buses? Bus strikes and air quality

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge Alexander Bonilla, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Buses have been considered generally a fairer, cheaper, greener and healthier mode of suppling transport to citizens than cars. Since a bus may carry out much more people than a car in the road, buses might substitute some car trips. Thus, it is reasonable for authorities to design and implement public policies to promote the use of buses and reduce car use. We study the environmental impact of buses in Bogotá using bus strikes in the past eighteen years as a natural experiment. Our results indicate that air quality significantly improves during the strikes. Particulate matter declined around 20% the day when the strike was in effect. This impact is ten times greater than the air quality effect of cars reported in a recent study that evaluates car-free days. Our study provides evidence against the argument that buses are green in Bogota.
Fecha	17/10/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “¿Por qué hay tanta desigualdad en el capitalismo?”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Daniel Castellanos, Fundación Impacta OTS y Cifras y Conceptos
Abstract	"El propósito del trabajo es indagar, desde una perspectiva teórica, sobre las causas de la desigualdad capitalista. Para esto, el trabajo se apoya en la teoría de los contratos incompletos. A partir de ella, se analizan cuatro posibles sistemas de distribución. Se encuentra que el sistema capitalista es el que más desigualdad produce”.
Archivo
Fecha	10/10/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Buying off the Revolution: Evidence from the Colombian National Peasant Movement, 1957-1985

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe (LSE)
Abstract	This paper studies the relationship between democratization and redistribution during periods of revolutionary threats. Far from causing an increase in broad redistribution (e.g. social spending), I show that the state organization of a social movement that extends the political rights of the threatening group can be used to identify rebel leaders and provide private goods to them, in return for preventing social unrest and demobilizing their supporters. I study the context of the organization by the state of the most important social movement in Colombian history -the National Peasant Movement (ANUC)- during the decades of a threat of Communist revolution (1957-1985), when the government gave ANUC direct political participation in the executive branch and economic support. Using three newly digitized data set of the Colombian municipalities, I find that this reform did not lead to higher broad redistribution towards the peasantry but it led to an increase in targeted redistribution in terms of public jobs and lands. By matching the names of the peasant leaders to the beneficiaries of the land reform, evidence suggests that peasant leaders disproportionally benefited from land reform and that targeted redistribution towards the peasant leaders was a mechanism to restrain the Communist threat. Finally, I find suggestive evidence that buying off the rebel leaders was an effective counter-revolutionary strategy as it led to less revolutionary activities after the support to ANUC was terminated (1972-1985).
Fecha	28/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Reputation effects on tax collection and corruption

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Zambrano, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Juanita Camacho, Richard Kalil, Fabio Sánchez - Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Tax avoidance is highly prevalent in countries where the perception of corruption is higher. To understand this fact we study the relationship between a government that must finance public expenditure but can also steal part of the collected money, and citizens that may avoid taxes since the expenditure level is not observable to them. We formulate a dynamic game with incomplete information where a government can be honest or corrupt and privately observes a random expenditure level. The government chooses to impose higher taxes or not to pay for these expenditures and the citizens decide how much taxes to contribute after observing the government's decision. We show that tax collection is lower when the government´s reputation becomes worse, and that a corrupt government will steal more as its reputation gets better. We then test this predictions using Colombian municipal data.
Fecha	26/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Efectos de las políticas tarifarias en la demanda del sistema de transporte Transmilenio en Bogotá

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Alberto Moncada, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Luis Angel Guzmán y Santiago Gómez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Fare elasticities should be a key factor in deciding on price changes (increases or fare reductions) and evaluating the impact of these changes on ridership. In the case of Transmilenio (the bus rapid transit system of Bogotá), in which the travel demand is growing constantly and fare changes happen at the same time throughout the whole system, estimating effects on demand is a complex task. To overcome this problem, an econometric model was developed that take advantage of highly disaggregated information on ridership for the Transmilenio system. The database provided information on entrances to the system’s stations between 2001 and 2014 at the daily level. Using data between 2000 and 2012 we provide a set of short-term elasticity estimates for demand responses. The results show variation in time after a fare raise is introduced. Elasticity’s absolute value decreases (approaching zero) from -0.42 (very short time, 1 week) to -0.14 after 2 months. In addition, low-income users are more sensitive or responsive to these types of policies, as expected. We think that this is due to the low-income group being more constrained in its transport cost budget. Additionally, in August 2012 in order to reduce congestion of passengers in peak hours, an innovative fare policy of reduction was implemented by the former mayor administration through price discrimination among peak and off-peak periods. To estimate the variation in the relative daily demand distribution between the peak and the off-peak hours, we analized information of habitual working days. Our main data source for this case was the number of entrances for Transmilenio stations between 2011 and 2013 where no fare increases were applied and only the fare reduction was observed in this period. The data before the intervention were gathered between March 2011 and July 2012. The data after the intervention were gathered between August 2012 and December 2013. We assumed that the users’ observable characteristics did not change before or after the intervention was carried out. The fares changed from a flat fare COP 1,750 (1 USD = 1,780 COP in August 2012) to COP 1,700 in peak hours and to COP 1,400 in off-peak hours. The results suggest that the fare reduction produced changes on the balance of demand behaviour in peak and off-peak hours, reducing the ratio of peak to off peak demand by around 9%. This change seems to have different levels of impact depending on the income levels associated with each station, being stronger in areas of lower income levels. Finally, a proposal of an elasticity model following the same characteristics of the fare increase model was applied to analyse the demand response to fare reduction policy.
Fecha	19/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Fighting For The Best, Losing With The Rest: A case for restricting credit to business start-ups

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Daniel Wills, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Juan Manuel Hernández, BID
Abstract	The Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) act of 2012 aims at increasing funding access for young firms by easing securities regulation. Motivated by this, we ask if there is a role for the regulation of the market of funds for firms that lack collateral and have a large uncertainty about their ability to generate profits. To answer that we characterize optimal financial contracts in a competitive environment with risk, adverse selection and limited liability. We find that competition among financial intermediaries always forces them to fund projects with negative expected returns both from a private and from a social perspective. Intermediaries use steep payoff schedules to screen entrepreneurs, but limited liability implies this can only be done by giving more to all entrepreneurs. In equilibrium, competition for the best entrepreneurs forces intermediaries to offer better terms to all customers, there is cross subsidization among entrepreneurs and intermediation profits are nil. The three main features of our framework (competition, adverse selection and limited liability) are necessary in order to get the inefficient laissez-faire outcome and a role for barriers to entry into financial intermediation. Our result remains robust when firms can collateralize some portion of the credit as long as there is still an unsecured fraction.
Archivo
Fecha	12/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Ciclos de despojos de tierra y desplazamiento en Colombia, 1890-2013

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	María Paula Saffon – UNAM
Abstract	El despojo de tierra y el desplazamiento forzado han sido dos de los efectos más perversos y negativos del conflicto armado colombiano. La investigación desarrollada intenta mostrar como aquellos fenómenos tienen profundas raíces históricas y están relacionados con los despojos de tierra que ocurrieron durante la expansión de la frontera agrícola de finales del siglo XIX y comienzos del siglo XX. Estos despojos -que no fueron adecuadamente resueltos- coadyuvaron al surgimiento del conflicto armado interno durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX, cuyos actores fueron los perpetradores de los despojos y desplazamientos del finales del siglo XX. El trabajo muestra la existencia de persistencia geográficas en los despojos de los dos momentos históricos mencionados.
Fecha	05/09/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "How do risk attitudes affect pro-social behavior? Theory and experiment"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Sautua, Universidad del Rosario
Coautor	Sean Fahle, State University of New York at Buffalo
Fecha	29/08/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Peer Effects in the Adoption of a New Social Program

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Claudio A Mora-García, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Coautor	Tomás Rau (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
Abstract	Many social programs have low take-up rates, and little is known about the factors determining this regularity. This paper studies the effects of peers on the adoption of a new Youth Employment Subsidy in Chile. We focus on the effects that high school classmates' and coworkers' adoption has on one's adoption. Identification comes from discontinuities in the subsidy assignment rule inducing exogenous variation in a neighborhood around the worker's age and wage eligibility cutoffs. Using a comprehensive set of administrative records that include high school and matched employer-employee data, we find that coworkers strongly influence one's adoption of the subsidy while high school classmates do not. Peer effects are greater among older adults with about five years of working experience and within larger companies. We also find that peer effects decrease with time, but remain significant one year after program implementation. These results suggest that information diffusion is one channel explaining adoption in the short run, but more research is needed to understand steady state take-up levels.
Archivo
Fecha	22/08/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ A Nudge to School: Triangulating the Gains

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hoyt Bleakley, University of Michigan
Abstract	Recent research and policies use (often small) incentives for students to increase their years of schooling. A working assumption justifying such incentives is that the optimal years of schooling is greater than that which would be otherwise be obtained by the target population. I combine this hypothesis with an older literature (e.g., Harberger 1971) that uses triangles to estimate approximate misallocation. Using well-identified parameter estimates from recent papers, I implement two strategies to measure the loss to a student from an underinvestment of (a somewhat implausible) four years of school. The upper bound of the present value of losses from supposed underinvestment in schooling is less than a few percent of lifetime income, in certain plausible cases. As these triangles are proportional to the square of misallocation and would thus be smaller by a factor of 8 with just one year of underinvestment.
Fecha	17/08/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Controlling Sellers Who Provide Advice: Regulation and Competition

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Bardey, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Denis Gromb, HEC Paris; David Martimort, Paris School of Economics (EHESS); Jerome Pouyet, Paris School of Economics (CNRS & ENS)
Abstract	A monopoly seller advises buyers about which of two goods best fits their needs but may be tempted to steer buyers towards the higher margin good. For the seller to collect information and provide truthful advice, the profits from both goods must lie within an implementability cone. In the optimal regulation, pricing distortions and information-collection incentives are controlled separately by price regulation and fixed rewards respectively. This no longer holds when the seller has private information about costs as both problems interact. We study the extent to which competition and buyers' threat to switch sellers can substitute for regulation.
Archivo
Fecha	15/08/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Can Educational Voucher Programs Pay for Themselves?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Medina, Banco de la República-Medellín
Coautores	Eric Bettinger (Stanford University), Michael Kremer (Harvard University), Maurice Kugler, (Impaq), Christian Posso (Banco de la República) y Juan E. Saavedra (University of Southern California)
Abstract	In the 1990s Colombia awarded private secondary school scholarships to socially disadvantaged students via lotteries. Using administrative data up to twenty years after the scholarship lottery, we document that lottery winners are less likely to repeat grades, more likely to graduate from secondary school on time or ever, and more likely to start and complete tertiary education. Tertiary education impacts are strongest among students who initially applied to attend vocational secondary schools. Scholarships reduce teen fertility although there is no significant effect on overall fertility at age 30. Social security data suggests that twenty years after the scholarship lottery, average annual formal earnings for lottery winners near age 33 are 8 percent greater than those for losers. Formal-sector earnings effects are entirely driven by vocational school applicants, among whom lottery winners earn 17 percent more than losers. Lottery winners, particularly those who applied to vocational schools have greater access to formal consumer credit in the form of credit cards and car loans, and have better credit scores. The expected net present value of increased net tax receipts due to the program likely exceeds its fiscal cost, implying that the program was welfare improving unless net externalities were large and negative.
Fecha	08/08/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Long-term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers on Economic Mobility: Evidence using welfare ranks and trajectories

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Irene Clavijo, Paris School of Economics
Abstract	There is recent optimism about the increase in economic mobility in Latin America. This paper exploits the randomized evaluation design of a renowned CCT program to measure the long-run impact on intragenerational socioeconomic mobility. In particular, I use two distinct approaches to examine the effect of differential exposure to the program (welfare ranks and trajectories). More specifically, I evaluate the impact of differential exposure to the program on the likelihood that a household presents a path of sustained poverty, mobility, vulnerability or resilience. The results using the ranks approach suggest the effect on mobility was not sustained in the long-term. In contrast, the impacts from the trajectories estimates do persist into the long term. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis suggests the program has a compensating effect in some cases (for the less connected and less educated households) and a mitigating effect against adversity (for natural disaster shocks). However, there are other cases in which existing inequalities are reinforced (for households with children at critical transition ages).
Fecha	18/05/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Cities and Inequality: From Large and Equal to Large and Unequal

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Caicedo, University of Chicago
Abstract	Recent literature has shown that large US cities are nowadays the most unequal ones. What is less known is this wasn't always the case. Back in the 1940, big US cities were the most equal ones. In this paper I document this change in correlation between income inequality and city size. I find evidence suggesting occupation and industry composition were more important in the early period while skill composition is more important now. To explain this fact, I propose a mechanism where big cities used to have mass production technologies and workers preformed similar tasks; whereas, nowadays , large cities have industries where skills are more important. I argue this technological change had profound implications on the sorting of individuals across cities and their selection into different occupations over this time period. I develop a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to understand and quantify these margins. The model can rationalize the change in correlation between city size and inequality, and is also consistent with data on the growing importance of managerial occupations and the sorting patterns of high educated individuals into large cities.
Fecha	16/05/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Flexible Minimum Wages: Optimal Design and Quantitative Analysis

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Zachary Mahone, University of Toronto
Coautor	Pau Pujolas (McMaster University)
Abstract	We adapt the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism to determine the minimum wage in a model of job search with Nash bargaining, where the laissez-faire equilibrium generates an inefficient number of job postings and unemployment. The mechanism demands minimal information, achieves near-efficiency and implies a flexible minimum wage that responds to cyclical fluctuations. We calibrate a dynamic version of the model to the U.S. business cycle and find that the mechanism yields an increase in real income of 4.5%. In a stochastic economy, a simpler version of the mechanism that requires much less information to be implemented already generates 58% of the full efficiency gains.
Fecha	11/05/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Higher Taxes at the Top: The Role of Entrepreneurs

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Bettina Brueggemann, McMaster University
Abstract	This paper contributes to the recent and growing literature on optimal top marginal income tax rates. It computes optimal marginal tax rates for top earners in a Bewley-Aiyagari type economy explicitly accounting for entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs make up more than one third of the highest-earning one percent in the income distribution despite representing less than ten percent of the population. They are thus disproportionately affected by an increase in the top marginal income tax rate. Since entrepreneurs overall also employ half of the private-sector workforce, such policy changes can have important repercussions for aggregate labor demand and productivity. In the model households face an occupational choice between working for the market wage or starting their own business. Borrowing constraints induce entrepreneurs to save in order to grow. Consistent with the data, entrepreneurs significantly influence aggregate productivity, generate 50 percent of total output, and account for 40 percent of taxpayers in the top tax bracket. Nonetheless, the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate amounts to 82.5 percent, and the revenue maximizing one to 90 percent. A steady state comparison between the benchmark economy featuring the current US tax system and the economy with the welfare maximizing top marginal tax rate illustrates the underlying mechanisms. The substantial increase in taxes leads to a large degree of redistribution, yielding sizable welfare gains for low-income working and entrepreneurial households. The welfare gains decline with income for workers, as middle-income workers are hurt by lower equilibrium wages. These lower wages however benefit medium-sized entrepreneurs and enable them to grow, such that all entrepreneurs except those directly affected by the higher tax experience considerable welfare gains, and the size of the entrepreneurial sector grows.
Fecha	09/05/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Losing Your Dictator: Firms During Political Transition

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Mounu Prem, Universidad del Rosario
Coautor	Felipe González (UC Berkeley)
Abstract	Can firms transfer distortions across political regimes? To answer this question, we use novel firm-level data, network analysis, and a differences-in-differences framework to study firms during Chile’s transition to democracy. We find that firms with links to the dictatorship were relatively unproductive before the transition, increased their productive capacity and obtained more loans from state-owned banks during political transition, and had better market outcomes in democracy. We discuss and test for different explanations and provide suggestive evidence consistent with strategic behavior. These results suggests that distortions can be transferred across political regimes and constrain the effects of democratizations.
Archivo
Fecha	02/05/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Effects of a quality enhancement to a national public parenting program in Colombia on child development: a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Orazio Attanasio (UCL), Helen Baker-Henningham (Bangor University), Costas Meghir (Yale University) y Marta Rubio-Codina (Inter-American Development Bank)
Abstract	In this paper, we evaluate the effects of the implementation of a structured early stimulation curriculum and a nutritional intervention through public parenting support services for vulnerable families living in rural areas of Colombia (known as FAMI), on children’s development and parental behaviors. We use a clustered randomized controlled trial that assigns 87 municipalities to treatment and control, to evaluate the effects of these interventions on children growth and development. 1,460 children younger than 1 year of age were assessed at baseline. The interventions were also complemented with training, supervision and coaching of FAMI program facilitators. We assessed program effects on children’s nutritional status by anthropometric measures, cognitive, receptive and expressive language, and fine and gross motor using the Bayley scales of infant development-III and socio-emotional development based on the Ages and Stages Questionnaire for the socioemotional domain. The interventions had positive and significant effects on Bayley-III cognitive scale (0.15 SD), receptive language (0.11 SD), expressive language (0.14 SD) and gross motor development (0.14 SD). We also report a reduction in the risk of stunting of -0.13 SDs. We do not find any effects on socio-emotional development. We report positive and statistically significant effects on the number of toy materials at home (0.36 SD), the number of varieties of play materials (0.28 SD), and the number of varieties of play activities with adults at home over the past three days (0.17 SD).
Fecha	25/04/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ State building in the city: The effects of public security and services on crime, violence and state legitimacy in Bogotá

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Tobón, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Christopher Blattman, Donald Green y Daniel Ortega
Abstract	Bogotá’s government set out to reduce crime and violence and increase state legitimacy by raising state presence on city streets, either doubling police patrol time or delivering clean-up and lighting services. We identified 1,919 high-crime street segments and randomized them to eight months of increased security, services, both, or neither. Interventions at this scale, in a dense network of streets, require us to account for spillovers into control segments. The policy implications also hinge on these spillovers. We show how to design place-based experiments to test for spatial spillovers over varying distances, and estimate direct and spillover effects using randomization inference. Using administrative data alongside a city-wide survey, we find that increasing state presence reduces insecurity on targeted streets. There may be increasing returns to state presence and to targeting the least secure places. Overall, greater state presence and security do not increase trust in the state or its legitimacy.
Fecha	20/04/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Gilded Bubbles

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Perez-Reyna, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Xavier Freixas (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics and CEPR)
Abstract	Excessive credit growth and high asset prices increase the probability of a crisis. Because these two variables are determined in equilibrium, the analysis of systemic risk and the cost-benefit analysis of macroprudential regulation require a specific framework consistent with the empirical observation. We argue that an overlapping generation model of rational bubbles can explain some of the main features of banking crises and, therefore, provide a microfounded framework for the rigorous analysis of macroprudential policy. We find that credit financed bubbles may have a role as a buffer in reducing excessive investment at the firms' level and, thus, increasing efficiency. Still, when banks have a risk of going bankrupt a trade-off appears between financial stability and efficiency. When this is the case, macroprudential policy has a key role in improving efficiency while preserving financial stability. Still, the optimal macroprudential policy has to take into account wages, liquidity and productivity shocks, which is quite at odds with orthodox macroprudential practices.
Fecha	18/04/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ An additional fear of floating: media influence on exchange policy

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Juan Manuel Caicedo, Twitter. Francisco Eslava, Universidad de los Andes. Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes. Mauricio Villamizar, Banco de la República
Abstract	What are the forces that help shape monetary and exchange policy? In this paper, we focus on mass media influence. Though media exposure is a usual suspect, previous explorations have not convincingly dealt with endogeneity concerns. To uncover the causal effect of media content on monetary policy decisions, we use randomly occurring distracting events as an instrument for media attention to exchange rate movements in Colombia, from 2000 to 2008. Our findings reveal a significant and economically meaningful impact of this attention on the Central Bank's decision to intervene in the exchange rate market. Specifically, a one-standard deviation increase in exchange rate appreciation stories increases the probability of an intervention by 19% (close to two-thirds of a standard deviation). The results suggest that mass media can influence even policymakers that are relatively isolated from electoral pressures, like independent monetary authorities, and also provide an additional rationale for the "fear of floating" phenomenon documented in the literature
Fecha	06/04/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Identification and Estimation of Electoral Model and Ballot Stuffing

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Anastasia Burkovskaya, University of Sydney
Abstract	This paper introduces a model of electoral choice that allows for derivation of joint distribution of turnout and voter share from unobservable joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates. Under a set of mild assumptions, we show identification and provide non-parametric estimators of joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates from observable electoral data. In addition, the application of the electoral model offers estimators of ballot stuffing type of electoral fraud. All estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal.
Archivo
Fecha	04/04/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Motivational Effects of a Nationwide Merit Scholarship Program for Low Income Students: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachid Laajaj, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Andrés Moya y Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper shows how the apparition of a large scale scholarship based on social criteria and merit, led to substantial improvement in the distribution of grades of eligible students, providing new evidence on the ex-ante effects of scholarships. “Ser Pilo Paga” (SPP) is a nationwide scholarship program for low income students in Colombia, which fully funds university tuitions and additional costs for more than 10,000 new students per year in Colombia. Because eligibility is based on a needs-based stratification index we use a Regressions Discontinuity Design (RDD) to identify the causal effects of the scholarship program on student performance in the national high school exit exam. We find that the opportunity provided by the scholarship leads to a large and significant reduction in the initial gap in the grades of the eligible students compared to the (wealthier) non-eligible students. This effect is largely driven by the performance of eligible students at the top of the performance distribution. A second RDD uses the threshold in the grade that needs to be attained to be granted the fellowship and shows how students’ aspirations and effort are enhanced when a student from their same school received the scholarship in the previous year. The results show that the lack of opportunities discourages low income students from putting effort in their education, which then harms their human capital accumulation and perpetuates the low social mobility.
Fecha	28/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Public financial support and innovation in Colombian manufacturing firms

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Guillermo Perry, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Fernando Barrios y Clemente Forero, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	We evaluate the impact of public financial support, both subsidies and credit, on different types of innovation in Colombian industry. We compare it with the effects of financing innovation with own resources and with private loans, and analyze the issue of crowding-out, for different classes of innovation. To control for potential selection bias, we apply Propensity Score Matching (PSM) techniques to a sample of 9173 manufacturing firms for the period 2011-2012, combining data from two available sources (Development and Technological Innovation Survey –EDIT6- and Annual Manufacturing Survey –EAM-). Results show that public financial support has a significant positive effect on products new for the international market and on process innovations. We further find that allocation of own resources of the firm to innovation activities has a positive effect on a wide variety of forms of innovation. Notwithstanding, its impact is substantially smaller than that of public funding in the cases of products new for the international market and on new processes. Commercial loans for innovation activities have no significant effects on either product or process innovations. Finally, we find that public funding increases the probability of allocating own resources to finance innovation activities, but reduces the probability of using private external sources.
Fecha	23/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The drivers of life-cycle business growth

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	John Haltiwanger
Abstract	We take advantage of rich microdata on Colombian manufacturing establishments to decompose growth over an establishment´s life cycle into that attributable to fundamental sources of growth-- physical productivity, demand shocks, and input prices--and distortions that weaken the link between those fundamentals and actual growth. We rely on a nested CES structure for preferences over products by multiproduct businesses, and data on quantities and prices for individual products for each manufacturing establishment, to decompose profitability shocks into physical pro-ductivity and demand shocks. Pooling all ages, measured fundamentals explain around 67% of the variability of output relative to birth level, with the remaining 33% explained by distortions and other unobserved factors. Demand shocks and TFPQ are equally important in the explained part, while input prices play a more minor role. Distortions explain more than 50% of growth up to age seven, but their contribution falls to less than 25% by around age 20. For the fraction explained by fundamentals, early life growth is explained by TFPQ with demand and input prices playing a minor role. But demand is the crucial factor in long-run growth, with a contribution that surpases that of TFPQ and unobserved factors by around age 15. In the 2000s compared to the 1980s, two decades separated by a wave of deep structural reforms, the contribution of TFPQ to the variance in life cycle growth grows by around 10 p.p , with demand and input prices falling in importance. Interestingly, that of distortions remains basically constant.
Fecha	21/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Son Malas las Instituciones Extractivas? Los efectos de largo plazo de la Encomienda en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Camilo A. Matajira, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social
Coautores	Jean Paul Faguet (LSE) y Fabio Sánchez (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	Este artículo evalúa el impacto de largo plazo de la Encomienda una institución de trabajo forzado impuesta por los españoles en América Latina durante los siglos XVI, XVII y XVIII en Colombia. Los resultados indican que los municipios que tuvieron Encomienda en 1560 tienes hoy mejores resultados de desarrollo económico y social. A pesar de ser una institución extractiva, los encomenderos construyeron el Estado local en dichos territorios. Por lo tanto, proveemos evidencia de que el impacto de largo plazo de la encomienda en los municipios colombianos fue por la persistencia de la capacidad Estatal. Finalmente, los resultados no son inducidos ni por la persistencia del Estado precolonial ni por la persistencia de la población.
Archivo
Fecha	16/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Building Dreams: the Impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Educational Aspirations in Colombia”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Arturo Harker, Escuela de Gobierno, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Sandra García y Jorge Cuartas, Escuela de Gobierno, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper analyzes the impact of a large scale conditional cash transfer (CCT) program on the educational aspirations of parents and children in poor households. The program, in addition to providing cash subsidies to the poorest households, delivered information about the returns to education and encouraged interaction between beneficiaries, social leaders, and professionals. Using data from the quasi-experimental impact evaluation of the program and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find a positive impact for the CCT on educational aspirations for both children and parents. Particularly, parents and children were 10.9 and 20.2 percentage points more likely to aspire to attain post-secondary education due to exposition to the program, respectively. Furthermore, we find that the effect was larger for the most vulnerable households: the poorest, least educated, and most pessimistic. These findings suggest that CCTs and other similar programs could boost long-term educational impacts if other features beyond cash subsidies, such as information, are considered.
Archivo
Fecha	14/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Coca, narcotráfico, seguridad y desarrollo

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hernando Zuleta, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	El aumento de cultivos ilícitos que ha experimentado Colombia en los últimos años ha generado dudas acerca del éxito de la policía de drogas y ha llevado a muchos analistas y responsables de política a sugerir un cambio de estrategia. En este documento se analiza el problema desde tres perspectivas: (i) el cultivo de coca como primer eslabón del narcotráfico, (ii) el papel de los cultivos de coca en la puja por control territorial y (iii) el problema de desarrollo en los municipios con cultivos de coca. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el retorno de la aspersión aérea no es una buena idea desde ninguna de las perspectivas analizadas.
Fecha	07/03/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Efectos Globales del Programa SER PILO PAGA en el Sistema de Educación Superior en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juliana Londoño-Velez – University of California en Berkeley
Coautores	Catherine Rodríguez y Fabio Sánchez – CEDE-Facultad de Economía- Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	La investigación a presentar examina los efectos causales del programa Ser Pilo Paga sobre el sistema de educación superior como un todo en Colombia. En adición, también analiza los efectos del programa en el acceso a educación superior y desempeño académico de los jóvenes legibles y beneficiarios del programa. Para determinar el efecto causal se utiliza la metodología de Regresión Discontinúa con base en la regla de asignación nítida -tanto por SISBEN como por el puntaje de la prueba SABER 11- que tiene el programa para establecer la elegibilidad a este. Se encuentra un efecto significativo y de gran magnitud en el acceso a educación superior tanto en el margen intensivo como extensivo. El acceso a educación superior inmediato se dobla para los jóvenes elegibles, haciendo que la brecha de acceso por estrato socioeconómico para los mejores estudiantes prácticamente desaparezca. También se observan efectos de equilibrio general importantes entre las distintas categorías de instituciones de educación superior y una reasignación de los estudiantes que acceden al sistema entre las distintas categorías de universidades. No obstante se evidencia un aumento global en el acceso a educación superior. El programa también promueve la diversidad en las universidades de alta calidad y aumenta –por la mayor competencia - el nivel académico de los estudiantes que acceden a esas instituciones.
Fecha	28/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Impact of Productivity Growth in China on the Brazilian Economy

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Andrés J. Maggi, Princeton University
Coautor	Eduardo A. Haddad, University of Sao Paulo
Abstract	We study the impact of China’s productivity growth on the Brazilian economy. Brazil provides a particularly interesting case as it faced an increase in import competition in manufactures as well as a boost in export demand for commodities. We use a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model that features economies with multiple regions and sectors, labor mobility within countries, input-output linkages, and interregional and international trade. We find that welfare in Brazil increased 0.03% due to the change in comparative advantage, and that the predictions of the model for the reallocation of economic activity across regions and sectors are strongly correlated with the observed reallocations. We use our calibrated model to assess how the welfare eﬀect would have changed if the government had invested in transportation infrastructure to take advantage of the new export opportunities. The model suggests that a transportation infrastructure program similar to the government’s plan for the next decades would have increased the welfare gain by 13%.
Fecha	27/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Rents From Trade and Coercive Institutions: Removing the Sugar Coating

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Dan Trefler, University of Toronto, NBER and “Institutions, Organizations and Growth Program’, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research,Toronto, Ontario
Coautores	Christian Dippel (University of California, Los Angeles, and NBER) y Avner Greif (Stanford University and “Institutions, Organizations and Growth Program’, Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, Toronto, Ontario)
Abstract	A sustained export price boom may not benefit workers if the resulting rents lead employers to invest in coercive activities that reduce wages. We formalize this idea in a simple model of an agricultural economy with exogenous export price fluctuations and plantation owners who mobilize the power of the state to coerce peasants. Coercion is any action that reduces the value to peasants of working in the non-plantation economy e.g., working as independent smallholders. Using unique data for 14 British West Indies sugar colonies from 1838 to 1913, a period in which sugar prices collapsed, we examine the impact of waning planter elite power on wages, incarceration rates, and peasant-biased taxes. In those colonies where the plantation system declined most, incarceration rates and peasant-biased taxes fell and, remarkably, wages rose.
Archivo
Fecha	16/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ When Ignorance is Bliss: Theory and Experiment on Collective Learning

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	José Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Boris Ginzburg (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Abstract	When do groups and societies choose to be uninformed? We study a committee that needs to vote on a reform which will give every member a private state-dependent payoff. The committee can vote to learn the state at no cost. We show that the committee decides not to learn the state when preferences are more fractionalized on the state-relevant dimension than on the state-irrelevant dimension. Hence, decisions on divisive issues are likely to be made in haste, and heterogeneous societies tend to seek less information. A simple laboratory experiment confirms key results.
Fecha	14/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sourcing of Expertise and the Boundaries of the Firm: The Case of Lobbyists

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Miguel Espinosa, LSE
Abstract	This paper proposes and tests a theory of vertical integration with knowledge workers. Outsourcing allows firms to solve hard problems at the cost of transmitting firm-specific knowledge. By hiring someone internally, firms save on these communication costs, with the downside of incurring costs of acquiring knowledge. Exploiting the increasing returns to the use of knowledge implies conducting easy and frequent activities in-house and harder and less frequent tasks in the external market. The economy saves communication costs when firms with large firm-specific knowledge conduct activities in-house. I confirm the empirical validity of this theory using data from a knowledge-intensive industry: US Federal Lobbying. First, using information at both the industry and bill levels, I validate the main theoretical predictions using client fixed-effects estimations. Second, I exploit the 2010 BP oil spill as an exogenous increase in the difficulty of the lobbying activities for the oil and gas extracting industry, and I show it led to a disproportionate increase in the use of external lobbyists for the affected industry. Lastly, I argue that the 2007 Open Government Act modified both the distribution of problems that firms faced and the technology to acquire knowledge. Estimating the underlying parameters of the integration decision, I explain how these two changes modified the integration patterns of the industry.
Fecha	10/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Underemployment and the Business Cycle

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ana Lariau, Boston College
Abstract	I document key empirical properties of involuntary part-time employment in the US and provide a model that explains them. I find that involuntary part-time employment is volatile and strongly countercyclical, and show that wages of involuntary part-time workers are more flexible than those of full-time workers. To understand this evidence, I develop a tractable model featuring search and matching frictions and imperfect substitutability between full-time and part-time workers. The model successfully captures the dynamics of key labor market variables. Relatively high flexibility of part-time wages is key for matching the countercyclicality of involuntary part-time employment because reallocating workers into part-time contracts becomes more profitable during recessions. Using the model, I find that increased substitutability between full-time and part-time workers, explained by innovations in workforce management practices, makes involuntary part-time employment more sensitive to aggregate productivity shocks.
Fecha	09/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sectoral Connectivity, Volatility, and Downturns: Lessons From Cross-Country Data

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Jorge Miranda-Pinto, University of Virginia
Abstract	I show that the number of sectoral connections in the input-output structure -- density of connections -- matters for aggregate volatility and the size of macroeconomic downturns. In a sample of 48 economies for the period 1984-2014, I find that emerging economies with more intermediate input shares above a threshold -- dense connections-- are more volatile and experience sharper macroeconomic downturns. The opposite holds for the group of developed economies, in which denser connections are associated with lower volatility and milder macroeconomic downturns. A multi-sector model with non-unitary elasticity of substitution between labor and intermediate inputs and working capital borrowing constraints can account for these facts. The model implies that in emerging economies, where the elasticity of substitution tends to be small, the density of connections increases volatility and the likelihood of financial cascades where several sectors become constrained due a negative sectoral shock. In developed economies, where the elasticity tends to be large, the density of connections reduces volatility and the likelihood of financial cascades.
Fecha	08/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Railroads and the Rural to Urban Transition: Evidence from 19th-Century Argentina

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Pérez, Stanford University
Abstract	I study the effects of improvements in transport infrastructure on the economic outcomes of parents and their children. To do so, I exploit the expansion of the railroad network in 19th-century Argentina and new longitudinal data following individuals before and after this expansion took place. To deal with the endogeneity of railroad location, I construct an instrumental variable that takes advantage of the fact that districts along the route of province capitals were more likely to be connected. I find that, once their district got connected to the railroad, adults largely remained farmers or farm workers. By contrast, their children moved out of farming toward more modern and higher paying occupations. The movement out of farming occupations reflected both local changes in employment structure and increased migration out of rural areas, and it was more pronounced among children in districts where the soil was not suitable for agriculture. Consistent with the higher level of skills required for this transition out of farming occupations, children in connected districts were more likely to be literate in adulthood. These results shed light on how improvements in transportation can shape the transition from a mostly rural to a diversified economy.
Fecha	07/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Regional Business Cycle Accounting and The Great Recession

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Juan Ospina, University of Chicago
Abstract	I extend the business cycle accounting methodology to a setting of a monetary union. I create a novel dataset on prices, wages, employment, net assets, and consumption that using both aggregate and regional data allows for the application of the methodology at three different levels of geographic aggregation: states, MSAs, and counties. Applied to the Great Recession at the state level, the business cycle accounting exercise provides two main findings. First, for 40 out of 48 states the labor wedge played a primary role in accounting for the differences between employment at the state level and employment at the aggregate level. Second, for 42 states the intertemporal wedge played a prominent role in accounting for the differences between consumption at the state level and consumption at the aggregate level. These results suggest that models using regional variation to study the business cycle of the Great Recession would need mechanisms generating fluctuations in more than one wedge to account for relative fluctuations in employment and consumption of a given region; however, in principle, such mechanisms need not be different for different regions.
Fecha	03/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ How International Reserves Reduce the Probability of Debt Crises

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Hernández, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract	This paper provides a model to explain the role of international reserves in reducing the likelihood of sovereign debt crises. The setup features a government making optimal choices of debt and reserves in an environment in which self-fulfilling rollover crises a-là Cole-Kehoe and external default a-là Eaton-Gersovitz coexist. This allows for both fundamental and market-sentiment driven debt crises. Self-fulfilling crises arise because of a lender's coordination problem when multiple equilibria are feasible. Conditional on the country's Net Foreign Asset position, additional reserves make the sovereign more willing to service its debt even when no new borrowing is possible, which enlarges the set of states in which repayment is the government's dominant strategy and this in turn reduces the set of states that admit a self-fulfilling crisis. From an ex-ante perspective, reserves reduce the probability of crises in the future and which lowers current sovereign spreads. The result depends on the existence of roll-over risk and debt not being limited to one period debt. This paper advances existing models by accounting not only for the self-insurance role of reserves against self-fulfilling crises but also for their part in reducing the probability of such events. These findings are in line with the empirical literature on vulnerability measures to sovereign debt crises that shows the connection between international reserves, the probability of debt crises and sovereign spreads. Quantitatively the model can explain 60% of Mexico's international reserves holdings, while accounting for key cyclical facts, showing the relevance of the proposed mechanism.
Fecha	31/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Confidence and Information Usage: Evidence from Soil Testing in India

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Jared Gars, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Coautor	Patrick Ward, International Food Policy Research Institute
Abstract	Does confidence influence demand for and responsiveness to information interventions? We add to an emerging literature on behavioral responses to information provision by investigating the role of confidence on willingess to pay for and responsiveness to input recommendations in the context of a soil testing intervention. To motivate our empirical analysis, we interpret confidence within the target-input model as the variance of a farmer's prior beliefs over optimal fertilizer application rates. We extend the model to consider how farmers make decisions about the purchase of and responsiveness to a signal given heterogeneity in their ability, trust, and confidence. The model predictions are tested in the context of a soil testing intervention in the state of Bihar that provided farmers with plot level fertilizer recommendations prior to planting. We elicit farmers' prior beliefs distributions over optimal fertilizer application rates using a visually aided method in the field and combine measures of dispersion with willingness to pay for soil tests and input behavior before and after receipt of soil health cards with plot level nutrient levels and recommendations. We find that farmers with less disperse priors (more confident) have a lower willingness to pay for soil testing ex-ante and lower responsiveness of fertilizer usage to the recommended application rates.
Fecha	30/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Life-Cycle Patterns of Earnings Shocks

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Martin Lopez-Daneri, The University of Iowa
Abstract	This paper addresses the estimation of individual income dynamics. It introduces a novel methodology that detects the presence of patterns in the life cycle and the economic forces in action. I estimate a Bayesian LSTAR(1) model with a rich level of heterogeneity and find that there is a life-cycle pattern in earnings shocks: before age 29, workers experience shocks with higher variance and a positive probability of having a lower persistence than older workers. A comparison with conventional models shows the importance of modelling correctly the level of heterogeneity in the innovations. The results can be used by macroeconomists to calibrate income processes.
Fecha	27/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Taxing Firms Facing Financial Frictions

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Daniel Wills, University of Pennsylvania
Coautor	Gustavo Camilo, Cornerstone Research
Abstract	In the U.S. business income is taxed several times at different sources, including corporate income, dividends, capital gains, and interest payments. We investigate how the different rates above affect firm investment and the allocation of capital in the economy. To do so, we construct and calibrate a model with heterogeneous firms, borrowing constraints, costly equity issuance and endogenous entry and exit. Because of the financial frictions, the taxes mentioned are not perfect substitutes and distort different margins. In our model firms enter small and grow over time to reach an optimal size. Firms are borrowing constrained and rely on retained earnings to grow. The corporate income tax reduces net worth and with retained earnings available for investment, delaying capital accumulation. Taxes on dividends, capital gains and interest income do not reduce net worth. We use the model to quantitatively analyze the steady state consequences of a reform that replaces the corporate income tax by a common tax on shareholders. We find that such reform improves the allocation of capital in the economy, increasing total factor productivity by 1.7%.
Fecha	26/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Coordination as Unintended Benefit: Lab-in-the-Field Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Program

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Sandra Polanía-Reyes, University College London and University of Siena
Abstract	This study tests an unintended benefit of a Conditional cash transfer program in Colombia: an improvement in coordination among its beneficiaries. A sample of 714 beneficiaries participate in a minimum effort coordination game. Those enrolled in the program for over a year are not just coordinating; they are more likely to exert the highest level of effort and reach higher earnings. Collected data is sufficiently rich to establish that improvement in coordination is not due to potential confounders such as willingness to cooperate, connectivity or socio-economic characteristics. A structural choice model of the individual decision to coordinate sheds light on the role of beliefs about others' behavior and suggests the presence of a coordination device to avoid the risk dominant equilibrium: the certainty in assessing what others might do. Participants are required to interact with local program officials, community leaders and fellow beneficiaries. We argue that this social component of the CCT, changed the structure of beliefs about others' behavior and established a social norm, which allowed beneficiaries to overcome coordination failures. The findings support nascent initiatives to influence beliefs through policy interventions.
Fecha	24/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Breaking from Colonial Institutions: Haiti's Idle Land, 1928-1950

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Craig Palsson, Yale University
Abstract	Economists and economic historians attribute long-term underdevelopment in former colonies to either persistent, bad institutions or to initial factor endowments that predisposed the colony to inequality. This paper uses a puzzle in Haiti's economic history to show that these frameworks are incomplete. In the early 20th century, large numbers of Haitian workers migrated abroad to work on plantations, even though lots of fertile land sat idle at home. This puzzling fact reflects two land institutions developed after Haiti's independence in 1804. First, lineages had joint claims over the alienation of land; one household could exploit land, but to sell it they needed agreement from a large number of extended kin. Second, the early-nineteenth century Haitian government had distributed land and banned land ownership by foreigners, preventing the creation of large holdings and establishing a checkerboard of landholdings with multiple claimants. To assess how this checkerboard led to idle land, I use data on 5,700 plots adopted over 22 years under a government rental program. A simple model of the optimal allocation of labor (between Haiti and elsewhere) and land (between subsistence holdings and plantations) implies that the checkerboard reduces land adoption and attenuates the extent to which new plantations develop after a migration cost shock. Data from settlement patterns in Haiti and a massacre in the Dominican Republic confirm these predictions. Using the institutional histories of the Dominican Republic and Jamaica as counterfactuals drives this point home: both countries lacked Haiti's checkerboard pattern and developed plantation agriculture. Haiti's experience shows that the conditions created by colonial governments did not necessarily constrain future institutional development. Haiti's post-independence institutional innovations undermined the conditions for development.
Fecha	19/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Local incentives and national tax evasion: The response of illegal mining to a tax reform in Colombia

Lugar	W-204
Conferencista	Santiago Saavedra, Stanford University
Coautor	Mauricio Romero, University of California
Abstract	National governments can only tax the economic activity they either directly observe or that is reported by municipal authorities. In this paper we investigate how illegal mining, a very common phenomenon in Colombia, changed with a tax reform that reduced the share of revenue transferred back to mining municipalities. To overcome the challenge of measuring illegal activity, we construct a novel dataset using machine learning predictions on satellite imagery features. Theoretically we expect illegal mining to increase because the amount required to bribe the local authority is smaller after the reform. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, with Peru as the control, we find that illegal mining increased by 1.41 percentage points as share of the mining area. In addition, we provide suggestive evidence that illegal mines have more harmful health effects on the surrounding population than legal mines. These results illustrate unintended effects of tax revenue redistribution.
Fecha	18/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Strategic grouping and search for quality journalism, online versus offline

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Tomás Rodríguez, Stanford Universtiy
Coautor	Matthew Ellman, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and BGSE
Abstract	This paper investigates how supply-side factors influence the search for quality content in online and offline environments. We show that lower fixed costs of online publishing reduce the incentives to bundle content, as compared to offline journalism. In the presence of asymmetric information over journalistic quality, bundling of content by journalists who publish as a group generates positive informational externalities for users. Journalists group assortatively, better journalists having better partners. Then a consumer who discovers one quality journalist, has found several. The online environment, by reducing the pressure to group up, can lower welfare in our baseline model. We establish conditions for this result and investigate a number of countervailing forces.
Fecha	17/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Credit Scoring Meets Agricultural Lending: Exogenous Shocks, Recovery and Access to Formal Credit

Lugar	W-506
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Columbia University
Abstract	Credit scoring has become a widespread tool to assess the creditworthiness of prospective borrowers, and has been found to increase efficiency and welfare in many settings. But this paper identifies a shortcoming in existing credit scoring systems that may lead to a market failure in agricultural lending in developing countries: Farmers' scores - and their access to credit - decline because of exogenous short-term weather shocks that do not reduce their likelihood of future repayment. I use data on the near universe of formal agricultural loans for coffee production in Colombia to show that excess rainfall shocks cause lower concurrent loan repayment, lower credit scores, and more frequent denial of subsequent loan applications. Drawing on the agronomic literature on coffee production and using survey data, I show that productivity, income and repayment behavior recover faster from these shocks than farmers' credit histories. The additional loan denials create costs for both farmers and the lender that could be avoided. The results suggest that incorporating verifiable information on individual level shocks into credit scores would increase the efficiency of credit markets.
Fecha	16/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Do institutional investors unbind firm financial constraints? Evidence from emerging markets

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Pombo, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Roberto Álvarez (Universidad de Chile) y Mauricio Jara (Universidad de Chile)
Abstract	Using firm-level information for 11 larger emerging economies for the period -2003-2014, this article analyze the impact of firm investment ratio by the presence of institutional ownership and the effects that institutional investor heterogeneity has on firm financial constraints. Results show that the presence of institutional ownership reduces firm cash flow sensitivity for restricted samples using size and Kaplan and Zingales index. Investor heterogeneity regressions show that independent and foreign institutional investors reduces firm financial constraints explained by direct investor activism, lower monitoring costs and better corporate governance specially across small and medium-size firms.
Archivo
Fecha	22/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Stereotypes, Crime and Justice

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rajiv Sethi, Universidad de Columbia
Coautores	Dan O'Flaherty
Abstract	This talk will provide an overview of trends in crime and punishment in the United States over the past few decades, with particular attention to racial disparities in offending, victimization, arrest, and incarceration. A key theme is the role of stereotypes in conditioning interactions between victims and offenders, parties to disputes, officers and suspects, and witnesses and prosecutors. In particular, stereotypes are important in accounting for patterns in the data on robbery, homicide, and officer-involved shootings. Stereotypes can also facilitate the interpretation of incentive-based phenomena in essentialist terms, and thus affect attitudes towards mass incarceration within the general public. The relevance of these arguments for other societies with a history of hierarchical organization will be discussed.
Fecha	15/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Wandering Astray: Uncertainties, Schooling and Crime

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Nicolás Grau, Universidad de Chile
Coautores	Chao Fu (University of Wisconsin) y Jorge Rivera (Universidad de Chile)
Abstract	We build and estimate a dynamic model of teenagers' decisions of schooling and crime. Our model incorporates four groups of forces into a coherent framework: heterogeneous endowments, unequal opportunities, uncertainties faced by teenagers about themselves, and contemporaneous shocks. We estimate the model using administrative data from Chile that link school records with criminal records in teenage years. We use the estimated model to examine the effectiveness of counterfactual policies that aim at keeping teenagers "on track" and reducing inequality.
Fecha	10/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Los Concursos Docentes y Desempeño Académico de los Estudiantes en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Zelda Brutti, Instituto de Economía de Barcelona y Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	En 2002 la carrera de los maestros de las escuelas públicas de Colombia fue reformada en forma significativa a través de la introducción de un examen de ingreso y de incentivos de calidad adicionales –Decreto 1278 de 2002. Este artículo estima el impacto de esa reforma sobre el desempeño de los estudiantes que terminan la secundaria y toman la prueba SABER 11. Los resultados encontrados indican que una mayor proporción de maestros nuevos en un área particular (matemáticas, ciencias, lenguaje, etc.) está positivamente asociado con un mayor puntaje en la prueba SABER 11 en esa área particular, no obstante los efectos encontrados no son de gran magnitud. Se evidencia en adición que los maestros nuevos que obtuvieron las calificaciones más altas en su examen de ingreso tienden a abandonar rápidamente la carrera docente. También documentamos que una porcentaje significativo –superior a 30%- de los maestros nuevos lo conforman maestros temporales y que no lograron el puntaje mínimo para pasar el examen de ingreso. Estos últimos están asociados con un menor puntaje en la prueba SABER 11.
Fecha	08/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Orientaciones de la política económica de transportes en Perú 2014-2016

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	José Gallardo, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú - PUCP.
Abstract	En este seminario se busca explicar el diagnóstico del equipo económico que asumió en 2014 el gobierno en Perú, respecto de la situación de la economía y los énfasis de la política pública desde entonces. Se hará énfasis en cómo el análisis económico de las políticas públicas permitió establecer un diagnóstico y los ejes principales para solucionar los problemas fundamentales. En particular, se mostrará que los ejes de la política pública enfatizados fueron la diversificación productiva y el capital humano, para explicar el rol de la inversión en infraestructura en el contexto de esta visión. Se hará énfasis en cómo la implementación de la red de metros y sus desafíos se convierten en un caso de implementación económica de políticas públicas que deja enseñanzas para los países de América Latina.
Fecha	03/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Calidad estructural y calidad de proceso en centros de educación inicial en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Sonya Krutikova (Institute for Fiscal Studies), Orazio Attanasio (UCL) y Marta Rubio-Codina (BID)
Fecha	01/11/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Linking firm structure and skill premium

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Perez-Reyna, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Enoch Hill (Wheaton College) y Michael Maio
Abstract	We propose an original model of firm hierarchy which suggests that firm structure is important for understanding the wage structure. In our model, more productive firms choose to employ more levels of management, which requires a higher average level of skill in workers and consequently a higher average skill premium. This is consistent with what we document in the Chilean data and also agrees with the firm size to skill premium relationship commonly documented in the literature. Additionally, our model predicts that skill premium is increasing in the ratio of workers to managers, a fact we also observe in the Chilean data.
Fecha	25/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Inputs, Incentives, and Complementarities in Primary Education: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Mauricio Romero, University of California - San Diego
Coautores	Isaac Mbiti (University of Virginia), Karthik Muralidharan (University of California - San Diego), Constantine Manda (Twaweza), Youdi Schipper (Twaweza), and Rakesh Rajani (Twaweza)
Abstract	Recent learning assessments have documented the low skill levels attained by pupils in Tanzanian schools. These low levels of learning are driven in part by limited accountability in the education system, which is reflected in the frequent absence of teachers from classrooms. This is further compounded by the resource constraints that schools face. In this study we conduct a randomized experiment to examine the effectiveness of increasing resources to schools relative to increasing teacher incentives, and the complementarity between teacher incentives and school resources. Specifically, we compare the student learning outcomes between schools that were randomly assigned to one of four different interventions: one in which we provide schools with extra resources through capitation (or per pupil) grants paid directly to the school bank account, one in which we provide teachers with a bonus based on the performance of their students on an externally administered exam, one in which schools received both programs, and the control group which received no support. Overall, we find that solely providing resources to schools does not improve learning outcomes. We also find that the teacher incentives did not significantly improve learning outcomes. However, we find learning outomces did significantly improve when teacher incentives were coupled with extra school resources.
Archivo
Fecha	20/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Social Media and Collective Action: A Cross-Country Approach

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Carlos Molina, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Internet and social media have been considered main drivers of recent political turmoil and protests, most notably allegedly playing an important role during the Arab Spring. While rigorous evidence on the political implications of new media is not altogether absent, existing research has focused on a number of specific episodes and much of this perception is mainly the result of journalistic analyses based on anecdotes rather than methodical research. In a large panel of countries, we examine whether Facebook increases various forms of collective action and political activity. To estimate the causal impact of Facebook on political outcomes, we exploit Facebook's release in a given language as an exogenous source of variation in access to social media where those languages are spoken. Our estimates imply a cumulative effect of 15% additional protests over the span of three years.
Fecha	18/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Primer concurso de Datos Abiertos DNP-3ie

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Norma Gómez y Nadia Puerta, DNP
Abstract	El DNP sistematiza información de sus evaluaciones de Políticas Públicas que se dispone para el público en general en el Catálogo ANDA del DNP. Para promover el uso de esta información hemos unido esfuerzos con la Iniciativa Internacional para Evaluación de Impacto 3ie, y hemos organizado el Primer Concurso de Open Data. El objetivo de esta presentación es dar a conocer las bases de datos del Catálogo Anda, y las reglas del concurso, para que estudiantes e investigadores puedan acceder y explorar bases de datos de más de 40 evaluaciones independientes financiadas por ambas entidades, les den un nuevo uso y presenten un policy brief.
Fecha	13/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Competition, Training Spillovers and Under-provision of a Profitable Technology: Theory and Evidence from a Randomized Experiment on Savings in Mozambique

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachid Laajaj, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Michael R. Carter and Dean Yang
Abstract	We provide a model that combines competition among firms that provide a technology (e.g. savings), with learning from the consumers of the technology who initially under-estimate its benefits. The firms can provide trainings that increase the expected benefits and take up of the technology. However, under-provision of trainings occurs because the benefit from take up simulated by a firm’s training is shared with the competitors. We test the prediction of the model using data from an experiment in rural Mozambique where we partnered with a formal bank and randomly assigned treatments that include financial education and monetary encouragements to save. We find that the savings interventions raised savings, investments and consumption during the two years following the beginning of the programs. Also, as predicted by the model, the savings program implemented by our partner bank increased the number of accounts and savings at competitor banks; and this effect becomes stronger when the competitor banks were closer to the users than our partner bank. This spillover effect provides a novel explanation for the slow diffusion of profitable technologies, and a rationale for public subsidy or collaboration in information provision among providers of a technology.
Fecha	11/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Intrahousehold Violence and Economic Development: Evidence for Urban and Rural Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Nicolas Eduardo Santos, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Rachel Heath (Washington University); Rafael J. Santos (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	We use country-wide labor demand shocks to estimate the impact of economic development on intrahoushold violence in Colombia. We estimate shocks at the municipality level using variation in wages in the rest of the country at the month-industry-gender level. Our analysis separates between urban and rural areas. Using DHS data we corroborate that in both urban an rural areas our shocks predict the probability women work. We then show that in urban areas female labor demand shocks decrease violence against women while in rural areas these shocks increase violence. In both urban and rural areas, male labor demand shock decrease violence against women.
Fecha	04/10/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sobre la comisión de reforma tributaria en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Guillermo Perry y Miguel Urrutia, profesores de la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad de los Andes y miembros de la comisión asesora para una reforma tributaria en Colombia
Abstract	En esta sesión del seminario CEDE sobre políticas económicas se discutirá la metodología, las conclusiones y principales recomendaciones de la comisión para la reforma tributaria en Colombia.
Fecha	22/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ A General Equilibrium Fiscal Model for Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Diego Zamora, Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Abstract	Between 50’s and 60’s more than 14 million people were born in Colombia. At its middle age, this population supported more than 51% of the Colombian GDP and became on its climax, around 45% of the labor force. After half a century of hard work, that was never free from war, informality and low schooling supply, this population is leaving the labor force at a rate of 300.000 people per year, which is expected to increase by more than 15.000 people starting in 2016. In year 2021 a population as big as Santiago de Cali’s will leave the labor force. How much resources will be necessary to provide all of it with a peaceful aging, given that the required capital was never accrued for this stage? In order to answer this important question, I run an OLG calibrated model that takes into account the aging process and its impact on the capital and labor markets as well as considers the flow of constrains imposed by the law and the economy structure.
Fecha	20/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Propuesta de reforma al esquema de Protección a la Vejez en Colombia: cobertura universal y principales desafíos del sistema pensional en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jaime Cardona, Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público
Abstract	La pobreza y la desigualdad en Colombia se acentúan fuertemente al llegar a la tercera edad. En atención a esta problemática, se estudia la oferta de coberturas para la vejez y se encuentran al menos tres desafíos. Primero, en el régimen público de pensiones, los elevados costos fiscales que paga la sociedad colombiana terminan en pocos beneficiados con altos subsidios asignados de forma muy regresiva. Segundo, para el régimen privado la baja cobertura se explica por la restricción constitucional que obliga a tarifar rentas vitalicias que no pueden ser inferiores al salario mínimo. Tercero, el diseño y focalización actual de los BEPs, deja por fuera a una gran parte de la población que podría ser beneficiada. Atendiendo a esta problemática social que distingue a Colombia de sus pares en la región, se propone un nuevo esquema de protección en la vejez que utiliza una combinación eficiente de recursos privados y públicos y permite plantear a un costo sostenible un esquema de cobertura que llega al 100% de la población.
Fecha	15/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Adverse Selection vs Discrimination Risk with Genetic Testing. An Experimental Approach

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Bardey, Universidad de Los Andes-CEDE y visting fellow de TSE
Coautores	Philippe De Donder (TSE) and Cesar Mantilla (Universidad del Rosario)
Abstract	We develop a theoretical model to study the risk discrimination/adverse selection trade-off that occurs in health insurance markets. We focus on our analysis of two widely used regulations of genetic tests, disclosure duty and consent law, and we run an experiment in order to shed light on both the take-up rate of genetic testing and on the comparison of policyholders’ welfare under the two regulations. Disclosure duty forces individuals to reveal their test results to their insurers, exposing them to the risk of having to pay a large premium in case they are discovered to have a high probability of developing a disease (a discrimination risk). Differently, consent law allows them to hide this detrimental information, creating asymmetric information and adverse selection. The experimental results match the main theoretical predictions. Consent law is more likely to be preferred, with respect to disclosure duty, the lower the cost of the genetic test. Within consent law, take-up rates increase with the adverse selection intensity. We compute what would have been the adverse selection intensity at the steady state within consent law. We contrast these computations with the experimental results, and find that it is likely that individuals who initially prefer a consent law regulation would have been better off under a disclosure duty regulation in the long-run.
Fecha	13/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ La paz es mucho más que palomas: Beneficios económicos del acuerdo de paz en Colombia a partir del turismo de observación de aves

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge H. Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Rocío Moreno-Sánchez (Conservation Strategy Fund.), Sophia Espinoza (Conservation Strategy Fund.), Aaron Bruner2, Natalia Garzón (Universidad de los Andes) y John Myers (Audubon Society)
Abstract	Colombia es el país con la mayor diversidad de aves en el mundo, con un registro aproximado de 1.900 especies, equivalentes a un 20% de las existentes en todo el planeta. Esta característica resalta el gran potencial que este país tiene en torno a la oferta turística especializada en la observación de aves (o aviturismo). Los esfuerzos llevados a cabo por el gobierno colombiano para brindar mayor seguridad dentro del país –poniendo fin al largo conflicto armado– y para promocionar el ecoturismo pueden ayudar a posicionar a Colombia como uno de los destinos más importantes para los observadores de aves de todo el mundo. El presente estudio hace un análisis las preferencias de observadores de aves norteamericanos respecto a la oferta turística colombiana que integra la participación de comunidades locales (algunas víctimas del conflicto armado) y visitas a zonas de importancia (por su biodiversidad) para la observación de aves, que exhibirían, de firmarse el Acuerdo de Paz, mejores condiciones de accesibilidad y seguridad para los visitantes. A través de la aplicación del método de valoración contingente se estima el valor económico que la paz traería al sector de ecoturismo orientado a la observación de aves, a través del valor que los miembros de Audubon le asignan a estas características particulares dentro de un tour en el Caribe Norte de Colombia. A partir de estos cálculos, se hace una aproximación a la demanda para el sector del aviturismo en dicho país. Los resultados muestran que los observadores de aves estarían dispuestos a pagar, en promedio, $US 60 adicionales por día y por persona por un tour en Colombia, en un escenario de posconflicto, que se caracteriza por mayor avistamiento de aves, mayor seguridad y por la participación de comunidades locales, antes afectadas por el conflicto armado, en la prestación de servicios turísticos, comparado con un tour de características similares, en cuanto a duración y servicios, ofrecido por Costa Rica, uno de los principales destinos turísticos de los observadores de aves. La demanda proyectada para el sector de aviturismo en Colombia estima que un total de 278.850 observadores estarían interesados en visitar este país. A un precio de $US 310 por persona por día, el número esperado de observadores sería de casi 150.000 en total. Si cada una de las personas de este grupo visita Colombia una vez durante los próximos 10 años, el aviturismo generaría $US 9 millones de ganancias anuales y más de 7.500 nuevos puestos de trabajo. Las recomendaciones del estudio destacan los siguientes aspectos: i) Colombia debe desarrollar un sector de aviturismo diverso, con el fin de lograr competitividad en términos de calidad y precio; ii) se requiere inversión en infraestructura y un ambiente político y legal amigable para fomentar este mercado y maximizar el beneficio de los pobladores locales que fueron afectados por el conflicto armado; iii) se debe asegurar que las inversiones estén orientadas a las áreas prioritarias para la conservación de las aves; iv) es fundamental aumentar los esfuerzos en difusión e información en cuanto al potencial turístico de Colombia para el avistamiento de aves; y iv) mejorar permanentemente la prestación de los servicios en el sector del aviturismo.
Fecha	06/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ La Unión Europea y Colombia: Actualidad de las relaciones comerciales

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Sr. Christoph Saurenbach, Jefe de la Sección de Comercio de la Delegación de la UE en Colombia
Abstract	La Unión Europea con sus 28 Estados Miembros y una población de 508 millones de habitantes es el principal bloque comercial en el mundo. La UE y Colombia son socios privilegiados a nivel comercial gracias al Acuerdo Comercial Multipartes (MPTA), en vigor desde agosto de 2013. Para la UE, Colombia es su primer socio comercial a nivel de la Comunidad Andina y quinto socio en Latinoamérica, mientras que la UE es el segundo socio comercial de Colombia y una de las principales fuentes de la Inversión Extranjera Directa. En 2015, el comercio bilateral de bienes alcanzó una cifra de € 13,13 mil millones. En la presentación de la Sección de Comercio de la Delegación de la UE en Colombia van a aprender más sobre los principios y funcionamiento práctico del Acuerdo Comercial y las perspectivas actuales del comercio con la Unión Europea.
Fecha	01/09/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Learning, Career Paths, and the Distribution of Wages

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Santiago Caicedo Soler, University of Chicago
Coautores	Robert E. Lucas, Jr. (University of Chicago) y Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (Princeton University)
Abstract	We develop a theory of career paths and earnings in an economy in which agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these organizational hierarchies as they learn stochastically from other individuals. Earnings grow over time as agents acquire knowledge and occupy positions with larger numbers of subordinates. We contrast these and other implications of the theory with U.S. census data for the period 1990 to 2010. The model matches well the Lorenz curve of earnings as well as the observed mean experience-earnings profiles. We show that the increase in wage inequality over this period can be rationalized with a shift in the distribution of the complexity and profitability of technologies relative to the distribution of knowledge in the population.
Archivo
Fecha	30/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Latinoamérica: entre la convergencia a una “nueva” normal, la aceptación de lo que somos y las reformas necesarias para llevarlo a cabo"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Munir Jalil, Citibank
Fecha	25/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Mission: Human Capital Transmission, Economic Persistence and Culture in South America

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Felipe Valencia Caicedo, Bonn University
Abstract	This article examines the long-term consequences of a historical human capital intervention. The Jesuit order founded religious missions amongst the Guarani, in modern-day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading, writing and various crafts, before their expulsion in 1767. Using archival records and municipal census data, I demonstrate that educational attainment was and remains higher after 250 years in areas of former Jesuit presence. These dierences also translate into 10% higher incomes. The eect of Jesuit missions emerges clearly after comparing them with abandoned Jesuit missions, Franciscan Guarani Missions and using an Instrumental Variables strategy. In addition, I collect survey data and conduct behavioral experiments, nding that respondents in missionary areas exhibit higher non-cognitive abilities and collaborative behavior. Such enduring dierences are consistent with transmission mechanisms of occupational persistence, inter-generational knowledge transmission and indigenous assimilation. Robustness checks suggest that the results are not driven by migration, urbanization and tourism.
Archivo
Fecha	23/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Organizational Barriers to Technology Adoption: Evidence from Soccer-Ball Producers in Pakistan

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Eric Verhoogen, Columbia University
Coautores	David Atkin (MIT), Azam Chaudhry (Lahore School of Economics), Shamyla Chaudry (Lahore School of Economics) y Amit K. Khandelwal (Columbia University)
Abstract	This paper studies technology adoption in a cluster of soccer-ball producers in Sialkot, Pakistan. We invented a new cutting technology that reduces waste of the primary raw material and gave the technology to a random subset of producers. Despite the clear net benefits for nearly all firms, after 15 months take-up remained puzzlingly low. We hypothesize that an important reason for the lack of adoption is a misalignment of incentives within firms: the key employees (cutters and printers) are typically paid piece rates, with no incentive to reduce waste, and the new technology slows them down, at least initially. Fearing reductions in their effective wage, employees resist adoption in various ways, including by misinforming owners about the value of the technology. To investigate this hypothesis, we implemented a second experiment among the firms that originally received the technology: we offered one cutter and one printer perform a lump-sum payment, approximately a month's earnings, conditional on demonstrating competence in using the technology in the presence of the owner. This incentive payment, small from the point of view of the firm, had a significant positive effect on adoption. The results suggest that misalignment of incentives within firms is an important barrier to technology adoption in our setting.
Archivo
Fecha	16/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Liquidity Trap: What to Do about It?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Laurence Ball, Johns Hopkins University
Coautores	Joseph Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin, Centre for Economic Policy Research, and Peterson Institute for International Economics); Signe Krogstrup (Peterson Institute for International Economics) y Torsten Slok (Deutsche Bank)
Fecha	09/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Beliefs and Parental Investment”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Orazio Attanasio (UCL)
Coautor	Flavio Cunha (Rice University)
Fecha	04/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Fernandez (BID)
Coautores	Andres Gonzalez (IMF), Diego Rodriguez (Banco de la República)
Abstract	Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs’ business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coexist with other driving forces. The estimated model assigns to commodity shocks 42 percent of the variance in income, of which a considerable part is linked to the common factor. A further amplification mechanism is a ”spillover” effect from commodity prices to risk premia.
Archivo
Fecha	02/08/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Big data in economics and statistical offices

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Roberto Rigobon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract	Nuestro invitado abordará la diferencia de los problemas de: diseño de encuesta, estimación de parámetros, predicción, y medición de la economía. Se abordarán los requerimientos de datos para cada uno de los objetivos de las técnicas apropiadas.
Fecha	27/05/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Endogenous Persistent Shocks and Households' Welfare

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Zambrano, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Mateo Arbelaez y Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper estimates the persistence of adverse shocks and how it depends on household consumption decisions. We document how households respond to adverse shocks and present a model that builds on these estimates and rationalizes the observed behavior. Using Colombian data for urban households, we find that shocks are quite persistent: having an adverse shock increases future vulnerability by about 9 to 11 percentage points. Also, we show households in the middle of the wealth distribution significantly decrease consumption when hit by an adverse shock. Finally, our estimates indicate that this consumption reduction increases persistence of adverse shocks by 9 percentage points. When introduced in a calibrated version of our theoretical model, these numbers suggest there exists a poverty trap for households in the first two quartiles, and implies very large welfare losses for the first quartile when hit by an adverse shock.
Archivo
Fecha	05/05/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ From Indigenous Electoral Success to Indigenous Participation: The Case of Mapuches in Chile

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Alejandro Corvalan, Universidad Diego Portales
Coautor	Pedro Cayul (Universidad de Chile)
Abstract	In many countries, indigenous populations are not only economically deprived but also politically underrepresented. This paper studies the local electoral success of the indigenous Mapuches in Chile, a group that is ten percent of the population but have no representation at the national level, either in Government or Congress. In particular, we study whether the election of Mapuche mayors encourages Mapuche participation in the next local elections. Using a national data set on registration, and a surname strategy to recognize Mapuches, we show that Mapuche majors increase the number of Mapuche registrations for the next election but the effect is not enough to change significantly the percentage of indigenous people in the entire set of voters. As for candidates, we show that Mapuche majors increase the future number and percentage of Mapuche candidates, and that the effect is not given by incumbency advantage. Finally, we observe that the effect does not depend on the political orientation, in the sense that both right and left-wing Mapuche majors encourage future participation.
Fecha	26/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Efecto de la cuota moderadora sobre la mortalidad en el Sistema General de Seguridad Social de Salud en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Giancarlo Buitrago, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Grant Miller, Marco Vera-Hernández
Abstract	Se han descrito diferentes fallas del mercado asociadas con el aseguramiento en salud. En particular la presencia de riesgo moral atenta contra la eficiencia al aumentar el consumo de servicios de salud. Los costos compartidos óptimos son la solución privada de segundo rango que disminuye las consecuencias sobre la eficiencia del riesgo moral. Sin embargo, a pesar de que las consecuencias del efecto de la inclusión de estos costos compartidos han sido motivo de preocupación en la literatura académica, en la práctica el nivel de las coberturas y de los costos compartidos no parece ser diseñado de forma óptima. Este artículo pretende determinar el efecto de la cuota moderadora sobre la mortalidad en el Sistema General de Seguridad Social en Salud en Colombia (SGSSS). Para tal objetivo, se aprovecha el diseño de los costos compartidos en Colombia, en donde el Ingreso Base de Cotización al SGSSS es el que define el nivel de cuota moderadora a pagar. Se utiliza un diseño de regresión discontinua mediante estimación no paramétrica que permite evaluar el efecto de la cuota moderadora sobre la mortalidad en una base de datos que corresponde al 65% de la población colombiana del régimen contributivo. Se encuentra que la cuota moderadora afecta la probabilidad de morir, aproximadamente con un aumento de 1%. Dentro del estudio de posibles canales se observa que la cuota moderadora disminuye la frecuencia de asistencia a consulta externa médica y que, de forma cruzada, se relaciona con un aumento de la utilización de servicios hospitalarios.
Fecha	21/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Interacciones de choques en edad temprana e inversiones en capital humano: Evidencia para Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Valentina Duque, Universidad de Michigan
Coautores	María Fernanda Rosales, Universidad de California – Irvine y Fabio Sánchez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Este estudio investiga cómo las condiciones en edad temprana interactúan con inversiones posteriores en capital humano que influyen en futuros resultados educativos. Utilizando datos administrativos para el caso colombiano, el estudio explota la variación exógena provenientes de dos fuentes; i) la variación en los entornos en edad temprana que resultan de la exposición de los niños a choques extremos de precipitación en la primera infancia; y ii), la variación en las inversiones posteriores resultantes de la disponibilidad de transferencias monetarias condicionadas (TCR) que promueven inversiones en salud y educación de los niños. El estudio combina un experimento natural con un diseño de regresión discontinua utilizando la regla de asignación de la TCR. Los resultados preliminares muestran que, aunque la TCR tiene un impacto positivo en los resultados educativos de los niños, no existe un efecto diferencial del programa en los niños expuestos a los choques en edad temprana. Sin embargo, el efecto general del programa es lo suficientemente grande como para mitigar el impacto negativo del choque climático. Estos resultados tienen importantes implicaciones políticas.
Fecha	19/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Real Winner’s Curse

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Pablo Querubin (NYU) Nelson A. Ruiz-Guarin (LSE) Juan F. Vargas (Rosario)
Abstract	We study the effect on violence of the arrival of previously excluded groups (in particular, left-leaning parties) to local executive office in Colombian municipalities. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we show that while violence from left-wing guerrillas and the government is unaffected when the left wins mayoral elections, attacks by right-wing paramilitaries increase by about four per each 100.000 citizens, almost a tripling relative to the sample mean and close to 80% of a standard deviation. We interpret this increase in violence as a de facto reaction of traditional political and economic elites trying to counteract the increase in de jure power of outsiders after they win office. Consistent with this interpretation, we find that the surge in violence is concentrated in the year of the subsequent elections and as a result left wing incumbents enjoy an incumbency disadvantage. We also find that the left implements land policies that are threatening to the most notorious allies of paramilitaries: large landowners. These effects highlight the unintended risks of political inclusion in societies with weak institutions, an uneven presence of the state across its territory, and features of subnational authoritarianism.
Fecha	12/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Information Policies and Higher Education Choices: Experimental Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Ham, University of Illinois
Coautores	Leonardo Bonilla, University of Illinois y Nicolas L. Bottan, University of Illinois
Abstract	This paper studies whether providing information on funding opportunities and college premiums by degree-college pairs affects higher education decisions in a developing country. We conducted a randomized controlled trial in Bogotá, Colombia, on a representative sample of 120 urban public high schools, 60 of which received a 35-minute informational talk delivered by local college graduates. Using survey data linked to administrative records, we analyze student beliefs and evaluate the intervention. Findings show that most students overestimate true college premiums and are generally unaware of funding options. The talk does not affect earning beliefs but improves knowledge of financing programs, especially among the poor. There is no evidence that information disclosure affects post-secondary enrollment. However, students in treated schools who do enroll choose more selective colleges. These positive effects are mostly driven by students from better socioeconomic backgrounds. We conclude that information policies are ineffective to raise college enrollment in contexts with significant academic and financial barriers to entry, but may potentially affect certain students’ choice of college.
Archivo
Fecha	07/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Assessing social experiments using Apps: the case of Car-free days in Bogotá

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jorge A. Bonilla, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Fernando Carriazo, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	In the absence of monitoring data, Apps provide very useful information in time and space for policy analysis. Most Apps record real time data from social networks to enrich the users’ decision making. We argue that these data may also be used to better inform policy makers. This is the case of Waze, which is designed to facilitate access to information for car driving decisions. We collected Waze data to assess the impact of Car-free days, a social experiment in Bogotá, aimed to address congestion and local air pollution. Our results suggest that Car-free days improve traffic speed in 20% and local air quality, measured by particulate matter, in a 2% compared to business as usual. These results are useful to conduct cost-benefit analysis of Car-free days.
Fecha	05/04/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Percepciones y evidencia sobre la contratación pública en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Marcela Meléndez, ECON ESTUDIO
Abstract	Durante el segundo semestre de 2015 la Cámara Colombiana de Infraestructura comisionó un trabajo con un objetivo ambicioso: tratar de entender a fondo cómo funciona la contratación pública en Colombia y, a partir de ese aprendizaje, identificar las direcciones de ajuste necesarias para asegurar que los recursos públicos se empleen de la manera más efectiva en la provisión de bienes y servicios. La idea de que muchos de los recursos públicos se filtran en direcciones indeseables por cuenta de la corrupción es compartida por muchos colombianos. Qué tanto hay de realidad en eso es aún una pregunta sin respuesta, pero dos cosas son ciertas: la percepción sobre la transparencia en la contratación es en general muy mala y la evidencia disponible no es suficiente para contradecir esa mala percepción. El ejercicio realizado se concentró en la contratación pública en el sector de la infraestructura de transporte y comprende dos ejercicios independientes hermanos. El primero es un modulo sobre transparencia en la contratación en una encuesta de percepción respondida por 248 constructores, 112 consultores y 30 concesionarios del sector. El segundo es un análisis de los procesos de contratación realizados por los gobiernos sub-nacionales -departamentales y municipales- en 2014, que fue posible gracias a la información pública del Sistema Electrónico de Contratación Pública (SECOP) a partir de la cual se construyó una base de datos invaluable. Durante el seminario se discutirán los hallazgos principales de este trabajo.
Archivo
Fecha	31/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ An Analysis Of Country Medal Shares In Individual Sports At The Olympics

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan De Dios Tena H., Universidad de Liverpool
Abstract	Research question: Several studies report modelling relating countries’ medal shares at the Olympics to population and per capita income (host status and political system are typically included as controls). This paper uses a similar model but disaggregates to the level of the individual sport to ask questions such as whether some sports have a less steep relationship with income levels than others and whether hosting effects are more pronounced in some sports than others. Research methods: Data on medal shares are modelled across fifteen sports at twelve editions of the Games (1960-2012). A tobit model accounts for the large number of observations with zero medal share. Marginal effects, calculated for the case of athletics, illustrate how far many poor countries are from reasonable expectation of achieving medals. Results and findings: Income is influential on outcomes in all sports, its effects most pronounced in sports with substantial requirements for specific capital equipment; the distribution of medals is less unequal in sports practiced in multi-sports venues. Gains from hosting vary in magnitude, performance tending to be elevated most in sports with outcomes strongly influenced by judges. Implications: For poorer countries, the paper identifies a small group of sports on which it would be most realistic to focus resources. For Games organisers, who must decide which sports to include, it provides information relevant to the goal of spreading success more evenly across countries. For example, proposals to exclude wrestling are shown to have been potentially harmful to medal prospects of poorer countries.
Fecha	29/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Agglomeration Economies in the Presence of an Informal Sector. The Colombian Case

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Gustavo A. García, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper analyzes the relationship between agglomeration economies and wages in the context of a developing country, taking into account the marked presence of an informal sector. Using data from Colombia, we investigate the effect of agglomeration economies on formal and informal productivity, inquiring whether the informal sector achieves benefits from agglomeration economies and whether there are differences between the formal sector and the informal sector in agglomeration returns. We estimate an elasticity of wages with respect to employment density of around -4% for the formal sector and around 3% for the informal sector; thus there is a significantly positive effect of agglomeration on the productivity of the informal sector. The results show that informal workers in a city twice as dense have around 2% greater productivity, that imply 14% higher wages in denser areas than in less dense areas. In contrast, in the formal sector the results show that formal workers in a city twice as dense have around 3% less productivity, leading this kind of workers to earn 17% less in denser areas. Factors associated with the constraints in the creation of formal jobs and a greater labor supply of formal workers and des-amenities very common in big cities in developing countries could explain this lower agglomeration return in the formal sector.
Archivo
Fecha	17/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Debt: Deleveraging or Default"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Pérez-Reyna, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Guillermo Ordoñez, University of Pennsylvania y Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University
Abstract	Private information in credit markets may be resolved through deleveraging or default, depending on the volatility and the evolution of collateral value. We develop a dynamic model in which all borrowers have collateral subject to systematic uncertainty, but only good borrowers have additional income that is unobservable. When the volatility of collateral is low, good borrowers are able to fully separate by deleveraging, that is, raising debt and subsequently paying it down with unobservable income. For higher volatility, the amount of debt that is necessary for full separation may force bad borrowers to default, so that good borrowers must trade off the benefit of separation against an adverse selection cost of higher debt. For sufficiently high volatility, only partial separation is achieved because the cost of higher debt outweighs the benefit of separation.
Archivo
Fecha	15/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Business Accelerators and New-Venture Performance: Evidence from Start-Up Chile

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juanita González-Uribe (London School of Economics)
Coautor	Michael Leatherbee (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
Abstract	Do business accelerators add value? If so, how? We investigate these questions by focusing on Start-Up Chile, an accelerator sponsored by the Chilean government. Using a regression discontinuity design, we show the mentoring services of accelerators can significantly increase new-venture performance by improving the managerial capital of participants. We speculate about the existence of two performance-enhancing mechanisms: the increase in the start-up’s social capital by enabling access to mentor networks, and the provision of an accountability structure in the form of board oversight. We find no support for the causal effect of basic services of cash and co-working space.
Archivo
Fecha	10/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ A Structural Model to Evaluate the Transition from Self‐Commitment to Centralized Unit Commitment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Álvaro Riascos, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Sergio Camelo (Stanford University, USA and Quantil, Colombia); Luciano de Castro (University of Iowa, USA); y Anthony Papavasiliou (Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium)
Abstract	We introduce a dispatch model of Colombia's independent system operator (XM) in order to study the relative merits of self‐commitment vs. centralized unit comment. We capitalize on the transition that took place in 2009 from self‐unit commitment to centralize unit commitment and use data from Colombia for the period 2006‐2012. In our analysis we simulate a competitive benchmark based on estimated marginal costs, startup costs and opportunity costs of thermal and hydro. We compare the differences between the competitive benchmark and self‐commitment for the period 2006‐2009 to the differences between the bid‐based centralized unit commitment and the competitive benchmark after the transition. Based on these comparisons we estimate changes in deadweight losses due to misrepresentation of cost by bidders and dispatch inefficiency. The results suggest that centralized unit commitment has improved economic efficiency, reducing the relative deadweight loss by at least 3.32%. This result could in part be explained b the observation that, before 2009, there was an underproduction of thermal energy relative to the competitive benchmark and it support the claim that dispatch efficiency has improved after the transition.
Archivo
Fecha	08/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Size-dependent distortions and labor substitution: Labor outsourcing and missing gaps”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Ospino, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	I study, theoretically and empirically, the effects of substitution between direct and outsourced labor on firms’ total labor demand as a response to an implicit tax on direct labor which only applies to firms above a given size, a size-dependent distortion. A key result from the model is that it predicts positive mass of firms in the total employment distribution at the threshold of compliance with regulation, which is consistent with the empirical evidence but contradicts the predictions of standard models with homogeneous labor. The model also provides useful insights about the effects of size-dependent distortions on the increased use of outsourced labor observed in developing countries. I test the model’s predictions using Colombian manufacturing data and an exogenous change in the apprenticeship contract regulation in 2002 which implicitly taxed direct labor for firms hiring at least 15 workers. Intent to treat estimators suggest that firms affected by the change demanded less direct and total labor, compared to firms not subject to the regulation, while increasing their share of outsourced labor.
Archivo
Fecha	03/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Cash Transfers and Child Schooling: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation of the Role of Conditionality"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Richard Akresh, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Coautores	Damien de Walque, The World Bank and Harounan Kazianga, Oklahoma State University
Abstract	We conduct a randomized experiment in rural Burkina Faso to estimate the impact of alternative cash transfer delivery mechanisms on education. The two-year pilot program randomly distributed cash transfers that were either conditional or unconditional. Families under the conditional schemes were required to have their children ages 7-15 enrolled in school and attending classes regularly. There were no requirements under the unconditional programs. Results indicate that conditional and unconditional cash transfers have similar impacts increasing enrollment for children traditionally favored by parents for school participation, including boys, older children, and higher ability children. However, conditional transfers are significantly more effective than unconditional transfers in improving the enrollment of “marginalized children”, those less likely to go to school, such as girls, younger children, and lower ability children. Thus, conditionality plays a critical role in benefiting children who are less likely to receive human capital investments from their parents.
Archivo
Fecha	01/03/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Public Development Banks and Credit Market Imperfections

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Marcela Eslava, Universidad de los Andes y Xavier Freixas, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Abstract	This paper is devoted to understanding the role of public development banks in alleviating financial market imperfections. We explore two issues: 1) which types of firms should be optimally targeted by public financial support; and 2) what type of mechanism should be implemented in order to efficiently support the targeted firms' access to credit. We model firms that face moral hazard and banks that have a costly screening technology, which results in a limited access to credit for some firms. We show that a public development bank may alleviate the inefficiencies by lending to commercial banks at subsidized rates, targeting the firms that generate high added value. This may be implemented through subsidized ear-marked lending to the banks or through credit guarantees which we show to be equivalent in "normal times". Still, when banks are facing a liquidity shortage, lending is preferred, while when banks are undercapitalized, a credit guarantees program is best suited. This will imply that 1) there is no "one size fits all" intervention program and 2) that any intervention program should be fine-tuned to accommodate the characteristics of competition, collateral, liquidity and banks capitalization of each industry.
Archivo
Fecha	23/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Power of Weak Incentives

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hector Lopez C., University of Maryland
Abstract	A social planner would like a socially optimal outcome to be chosen in an environment with externalities. The standard approach to solving the social planner's problem is to design mechanisms with desirable incentive properties such as strategy-proofness or equilibrium uniqueness. These mechanisms make the desired outcome a Nash equilibrium and rely on agents' rationality to coordinate on it. I introduce mechanisms with weak incentives to offer a different approach. These mechanisms make the desired outcome a Nash equilibrium, but rely on agents' behavioral traits - instead of rationality - to coordinate on the desired outcome. A mechanism with weak incentives is an indirect mechanism in which the payoff of agent i does not depend on his report. These mechanisms shed light on the relative importance between making the desired outcome a Nash equilibrium and offering incentives to coordinate on it. As an application, I show that in large economies, if players' reports are true on average, mechanisms with weak incentives solve the social planner's problem. I demonstrate this result using an experimental congestion game. In the lab, a mechanism with weak incentives realized 95% of the efficiency achieved by a social planner with full information. This suggest that lie-aversion, a well-established behavioral trait, can be used to design effective mechanisms.
Archivo
Fecha	18/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Estimating the social cost of carbon: an alternative approach

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Robert S. Pindyck, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract	An estimate of the social cost of carbon (SCC) is key to the design of climate policy. But how should we estimate the SCC? A common approach is to use an integrated assessment model (IAM), which simulates time paths for the atmospheric CO2 concentration, its impact on global mean temperature, and the resulting reductions in GDP and consumption. I have argued elsewhere that IAMs have serious deficiencies that make them poorly suited for this job, but what is the alternative? I discuss a simple and more transparent approach to estimating the SCC. It relies on the elicitation of expert opinions regarding (1) the probabilities of alternative economic outcomes of climate change, especially catastrophic outcomes, but not the particular causes of those outcomes; and (2) the reduction in emissions required to avoid or limit those potential outcomes. For example, a possible outcome might be a 20% or greater reduction in GDP. The ratio of the present value of the damages from a catastrophic outcome to the total emission reduction needed to avert the outcome is an estimate of the average SCC.
Archivo
Fecha	16/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Cities Drifting Apart: Heterogeneous Outcomes of Decentralizing Public Education

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Zelda Brutti, European University Institute
Abstract	I focus on the decentralized provision of public education in a middle income country, and provide original empirical evidence on heterogeneous impacts of autonomy, depending on the levels of development characterizing local authorities. Colombian municipalities were assigned to administer their public education service autonomously solely on the basis of whether they exceeded the 100 thousand inhabitants threshold. Exploiting this discontinuity, I look at the heterogeneous impact that autonomy has had on student test scores across municipalities using a regression discontinuity design and fixed-effects regression on a discontinuity sample. I find a test score gap arising between autonomous municipalities in the top quartile and those in the bottom quartile of the development range, in a trend that reinforces over time. From analysis of detailed municipal balance sheet data, I show that top-quartile municipalities are wealthier and invest in education more than the ad hoc transfers they receive, supplementing these with own financial resources. Significant differences that help explaining outcome patterns are also found in indicators of municipal administration quality.
Archivo
Fecha	11/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Bidding When Cost Is Uncertain: Evidence From Fresh Produce Procurement Auctions

Lugar	Hemiciclo 002
Conferencista	Cinthia Konichi-Paulo, University Of Pennsylvania
Abstract	This paper empirically analyzes procurement auctions in which suppliers must decide their bid based on expectations about how future market conditions will affect their costs. While previous literature has focused on the uncertainty about winning or losing the auction, I examine the risk that is intrinsic to the contract. I use data from government procurement auctions in the State of Sao Paulo in Brazil for fresh produce to study the e-ect of contract risk on auction outcomes. I find that suppliers are risk averse and therefore include a risk premium in the prices they bid, which can reach 38% of the price for some goods. In addition, I show that a simple change in the payment scheme, in which the government pays a fixed amount plus 40% of the reference index of wholesale prices, could reduce the risk premium to less than 1% of the bid price for all goods analyzed.
Archivo
Fecha	05/02/2016
Hora	3:00 a 4:30 pm.

+ Paternalism vs Redistribution: Designing Retirement Savings Policies with Behavioral Agents

Lugar	Hemiciclo 002
Conferencista	Pedro Olea de Souza, Princeton University
Abstract	This paper develops a theory of optimal savings and redistributive policies when individuals under-save for retirement because of a behavioral bias. The two central features of our model are labor income inequality, arising from unobservable earnings ability differences, and heterogeneity in savings rates, due to unobservable degrees of present bias. The interaction between government’s redistributive preferences and its paternalistic motive to correct savings leads to a novel insight: the optimal policy offers low income individuals a one-size-fits-all savings instrument, resembling social security, whereas it offers high income individuals a set of policies tailored to their heterogeneous preferences, similar to 401(k) and IRA accounts in the United States. The rationale for this policy is that the government uses flexibility at high earnings as a reward for generating income that can be taxed and used for redistribution. In a quantitative exercise, we use our normative model to evaluate the current U.S. social security and tax-transfer system. We find the current system to be inefficient, independent of redistributive preferences. Relative to the utilitarian benchmark, current social security benefits are consistent with more progressive social preferences, while the tax-transfer system suggests lower progressivity. We explore the implications of our theory for other behavioral contexts as well as for non-behavioral Pigouvian tax policies.
Archivo
Fecha	05/02/2016
Hora	1:00 a 2:30 pm.

+ Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Devin Bunten, UCLA
Abstract	Highly productive U.S. cities are characterized by high housing prices, low housing stock growth, and restrictive land-use regulations (e.g., San Francisco). While new residents would bene-t from housing stock growth due to higher incomes or shorter commutes, existing residents justify strict local land-use regulations on the grounds of congestion and other costs of further development. This paper assesses the welfare implications of these local regulations for income, congestion, and urban sprawl within a general equilibrium model with endogenous regulation. In the model, households choose from locations that vary exogenously by productivity and endogenously according to local externalities of congestion and sharing. Existing residents address these externalities by voting for regulations that limit local housing density. In equilibrium, these regulations bind and house prices compensate for differences across locations. Relative to the planner's optimum, the decentralized model generates spatial misallocation whereby high-productivity locations are settled at too-low densities. The model admits a straightforward calibration based on observed population density, expenditure shares on consumption and local services, and local incomes. Welfare and GDP would be 1.4% and 2.1% higher, respectively, under the planner's allocation. Abolishing zoning regulations entirely would increase GDP by 6%, but lower welfare by 5.9% due to greater congestion.
Archivo
Fecha	04/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Product Switching, Adaptation and Firm Survival in the Brewing Industry during Prohibition

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Eduardo Hernández, UCLA
Abstract	This paper studies the adaptation of firms to reductions in demand, and how this process can make firms more resilient to future demand shocks. I focus on the American brewing industry during the early twentieth century. Many states and counties chose to prohibit the sale and production of alcohol in the years leading up to the 1919 federal prohibition. Because of high transportation costs, local prohibition in nearby markets reduced the demand for beer production for some breweries more than others. Using novel micro-data at the brewery level, I show that breweries adapted to this first shock by acquiring machinery such as carbonators to produce alternative products like soft drinks. This initial investment strategy allowed them to endure federal prohibition (1919-1933), when no brewery was allowed to produce or sell beer. Breweries that faced the average reduction in demand due to local prohibitions were 12 percent more likely to survive the entire prohibition period (local + federal) than breweries not affected by local prohibitions. Higher survival rates are consistent with a model in which firms adapt to reductions in demand by making irreversible investments in other products, thereby endogenously increasing their ability to respond to future shocks, rather than with models in which firm survival depends exclusively on exogenous productivity.
Archivo
Fecha	02/02/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Sources of Revenue and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Luis R. Martínez, London School of Economics
Abstract	If government revenue is not coming out of their pockets, voters may be uninformed about it or uninterested in what happens to it, contributing to low accountability and poor governance. The present paper provides empirical evidence on the positive relationship between taxation and governance by comparing the effects of increases in internally-raised tax revenue and in royalties from the extraction of oil on local public good provision in a panel of Colombian municipalities. I find that an increase in property tax revenue, occurring as a result of an exogenous cadastral update, has a positive effect on several basic public services in the areas of education, health and water. These effects are at least ten times larger than the effects of an equivalent increase in oil royalties, obtained as a consequence of exogenous fluctuations in the world price of oil. I find no evidence that oil royalties contribute to improvements in public service provision, despite being earmarked for this purpose. Differences in the timing and in the sectoral allocation of spending across sources are unable to explain the results. I use novel data on disciplinary prosecutions to show that additional oil royalties increase the probability that the mayor and other local public officials are prosecuted, found guilty, and removed from office. I also provide suggestive evidence on the positive effect of taxation on citizen demands regarding public services. These results indicate that accountability is crucial for the responsible management of public funds and that taxation is an effective way of achieving the necessary citizen involvement in public affairs.
Archivo
Fecha	26/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Electoral rules and leader selection: experimental evidence from Ugandan community groups.

Lugar	ML-513
Conferencista	Miri Stryjan, Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES), Stockholm University.
Coautores	Deserranno E., and M. Sulaiman
Abstract	This paper studies leadership selection in community groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is know about their impact on leader selection. We compare two types of participatory decision-making in Ugandan community saving groups: vote by secret ballot and open discussion with consensus. Random assignment of electoral rules allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and on social service delivery. We find that vote groups elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for the poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups are more exclusive and favor the economically successful. The appropriate method for leader selection thus ultimately depends on the objective and target group of the program. Our findings offer important contributions to the literature on leader selection and to the understanding of public service delivery in developing countries.
Fecha	22/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Reluctant donors and their reactions to social information

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Klinowski, University of Pittsburgh
Abstract	Recent work on charitable giving finds that some individuals donate when asked, but prefer to avoid the request. Drawing on this, I investigate how information about others’ contributions affects giving, and whether the response is sensitive to the timing of the information. Participants of a laboratory experiment are invited to donate to charity, and receive information about the size of a previous donation either before or after they accept the invitation. Results show that the timing affects behavior, because solicitees respond reluctantly to the information. For example, participants decline the invitation if they learn that others give large amounts, but donate relatively large amounts if they receive the same information only after accepting the invitation. Through a novel elicitation I show that this behavior is correlated with a preference for sharing money reluctantly in a dictator game. I characterize the findings with a model in which donors do not want to appear selfish and create excuses for declning to donate. Informing them of others’ donations affects their ability to create such excuses.
Archivo
Fecha	21/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Wages under Information Frictions

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Camilo Morales-Jiménez, University of Maryland
Abstract	I propose a new mechanism for sluggish wages based on workers' noisy information about the state of the economy. Wages do not respond immediately to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. Firms, who have perfect information, do not reveal their information and instead extract an informational rent. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, which makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: flexibility of wages for new hires and procyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 60% of overall unemployment volatility. In line with empirical evidence, the response of unemployment to TFP shocks is large, hump-shaped, and peaks one year after the TFP shock, while the response of the aggregate wage is weak and delayed, peaking after two years. In line with empirical evidence, this model predicts a reallocation of employment from low to high-paying firms during expansions. I show that this reallocation is intensified by sluggish wages, and has significant effects on newly-hired workers as they find more and better paying jobs in booms.
Archivo
Fecha	19/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Higher Pay, Worse Outcomes? The Impact of Mayoral Wages on Local Government Quality in Peru”

Lugar	Hemiciclo 001
Conferencista	Ricardo Pique, Northwestern University
Abstract	In this paper, I study how wages earned by local politicians affect local government quality. I construct a novel data set on Peruvian municipalities which includes individual level data on the characteristics of local authorities, candidates and top bureaucrats, as well as detailed information on local government performance, bureaucratic structures and local politics. To identify the effects, I use caps imposed by the Peruvian central government on the wages earned by local mayors as an excluded instrument. The results indicate that mayoral wages do not improve local government quality. I find evidence of a robust, negative impact on public investment performance. Moreover, I find no evidence of a positive effect on politician and bureaucrat selection and on political effort. I consider multiple explanations for the performance result and conclude that this can be attributed, in part, to greater political opposition and fragmentation. Wages strongly affect the local political landscape, leading to more political opposition and fragmentation. These latter factors are shown to be detrimental for local government performance.
Archivo
Fecha	14/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Miranda, U.S. Census Bureau
Coautores	Ryan A. Decker (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER) y Ron S. Jarmin (U.S. Census Bureau)
Archivo
Fecha	10/11/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Gustavo Javier Canavire Bacarreza
Coautor	Merlin Hanauer (Somona State University)
Abstract	Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts.
Fecha	03/11/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Hotspots policing in a high crime environment: An experimental evaluation in Medellin

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Daniel Mejía, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Daniela Collazos (UniAndes), Eduardo Garcia (UniAndes), Daniel Ortega (CAF), Santiago Tobon (UniAndes)
Abstract	We present the results of an experimental evaluation of a hotspots policing intervention in the city of Medellín, Colombia. After identifying a large group of small geographic units (street segments) where crime is highly concentrated, a randomly selected group of street segments received a higher dosage of police patrolling. More precisely, patrolling times in treated hotspots increased from about 55 minutes/day to about 105 minutes/day (a 90% increase in police patrolling/presence in treated crime hotspots). The results of this intervention show that some crimes were significantly reduced, especially in crime hotpots with high levels of compliance of the required dosage of police patrolling times imposed by the experiment. Furthermore, the results also show that, if anything, there was a diffusion of benefits towards neighboring street segments of treated hotpots.
Fecha	29/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Patriotic Shocks, Inter-Ethnic Trust, and Ethnic Identification: Evidence from African Football”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Ruben Durante (Sciences Po)
Abstract	This research investigates how shocks to patriotic pride affect ethnic identification and inter-ethnic trust in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining individual survey data for over 35,000 respondents in 20 countries and over 10 years we document that respondents interviewed in the days following a victory of their country’s national football team are 5% less likely to report a strong sense of ethnic identity than respondent interviewed before the match. The estimated effect - which corresponds to a 25% decrease in the average probability of ethnic self-identification - is robust to controlling for country-year, language group, and match fixed effect and is especially pronounced for ethnically diverse countries. We find that national team’s football victories also reinforce generalized trust, with particular regard to inter-ethnic trust, but have no impact on self-reported trust in the government or support for the incumbent. Our findings suggest that even in regions where ethnic tensions are historically high, national identity and inter-ethnic trust are rather “malleable” and can be affected by transitory shocks.
Fecha	27/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Distance to the sea, fish availability and height

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rafael Santos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Mark R. Rosenzweig (Yale University)
Abstract	Investment in children human capital depend on the environment where parents live. Investments in food consumption might be higher in places where food is cheaper or more easily available. In this paper we investigate the implications that living closer to the sea has on children and adult height. Using new data from Colombian IDS that each year record the height and place of birth of every Colombian citizen turning eighteen years old, we show that adults living closer to the sea are taller net of race and wealth. This relationship holds even when we restrict the sample to coastal municipalities and exploit variation in fish availability across them. Following medical research that shows that protein intake by 9 months of age correlates with later life height and that this correlation is driven by that of protein intake and height during early childhood, we investigate the relationship between distance to the sea and children's height using the Colombian DHS and ELCA databases. With these databases we confirm that children between 1 and 5 years of age are taller if they live closer to the sea. We illustrate two channels through which these results might be explained: First, using DHS data, we find that children who live closer to the sea are more likely to eat fish and are also more likely to eat animal protein (inclusive of fish). Second, using prices data from Colombian thirteen main cities, we show that cities closer to the sea have lower prices for fish but not for non-tradable goods nor for tradable goods which production function does not depend on access to the sea.
Fecha	20/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Heterogeneidad estructural en el capitalismo. Una mirada desde la teoría del valor trabajo abstracto

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Samuel Jaramillo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	El trabajo propone una interpretación de la heterogeneidad que se constata en la estructura productiva de las sociedades capitalistas concretas como la coexistencia en un mismo mercado de agentes propiamente capitalistas y agentes mercantiles simples que compiten entre sí. El texto se concentra en el análisis de dos aspectos de esto: a) la competencia ejercida por los agentes capitalistas sobre los agentes mercantiles simples, que de manera permanente los está descomponiendo y desplazando de espacios de producción, lo que eventualmente hace colapsar a estos últimos y los reduce a la condición de proletarios. b) La persistencia de agentes mercantiles simples que resisten esta competencia, y no solamente como algo inercial, sino como resultado de la misma acción del capital, que pone en cuestión la previsión de Marx mismo sobre la tendencia del capitalismo a convertirse en una sociedad compuesta exclusivamente por una oligarquía de capitalistas y una mayoría homogénea de proletarios, mientras que las terceras clases serían liquidadas. Este análisis sucinto se realiza con un modelo de un solo bien, y con ilustración numérica para la primera parte, y con un modelo sencillo de álgebra simultánea para la segunda.
Archivo
Fecha	13/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Population Diversity, Division of Labor, and the Emergence of Trade and the State”

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Ömer Özak (Southern Methodist University)
Abstract	This research explores the prevalence and emergence of trade and the state in pre-modern societies. Based on a novel dataset combining geocoded ethnographic and genetic data at the ethnic level, this research exploits the exogenous variation in population diversity generated by the “Out-of-Africa" migration of anatomically modern humans to causally establish that higher levels of population diversity were conducive to economic specialization of labor and the emergence of trade-related institutions that, in turn, facilitated the historical formation of states. This research provides suggestive evidence that regions historically inhabited by pre-modern societies with high levels of economic specialization are more developed and have a larger occupational heterogeneity today.
Fecha	08/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Institutional Investors Heterogeneity and Firm Valuation: Evidence from Latin America

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Pombo, Facultad de Administración - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Maria Camila De-La-Hoz, (Facultad de Administración - Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	This article analyses how the corporate valuation of Latin American firms is affected by the presence of an institutional blockholder investor. The study uses a data set of 562 firms from six Latin American countries for the period 1997 to 2011. We found that the presence of an institutional investor has a positive effect of 8% on firm value. This premium increase to 24% for the cases where there is blockholder coalition with an institutional investor. After dividing the sample by investor type, we found that the presence of a grey investor has a negative effect on firm valuation.
Archivo
Fecha	06/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ School Choice: Nash Implementation of Stable Assignments through Rank-Priority Rules

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Paula Jaramillo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Cagatay Kayi (Universidad del Rosario) y Flip Klijn (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) y Barcelona GSE)
Abstract	We study the school choice problem where students are to be matched to schools through a clearinghouse. We focus on the class of rank priority mechanisms, to which the Boston (or immediate acceptance) mechanism belongs. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the Nash implementation of the set of stable matchings.
Fecha	01/10/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Javier Guillermo Gómez P., Banco de la República
Coautores	Dominique Guillaume (IMF) y Kadir Tanyeri (IMF)
Abstract	The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial events. In addition, systemic risk shocks are shown to be important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks explain a large share of the forecast variance for the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk shocks lends support for financial surveillance with a systemic focus.
Archivo
Fecha	15/09/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Can the Wounds of War be Healed? Experimental Evidence on Reconciliation in Sierra Leone

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Oeindrila Dube, New York University
Coautores	Jacobus Cilliers (Georgetown University) and Bilal Siddiqi (World Bank)
Abstract	Wars destroy not just physical capital but also social capital, often severing ties among individuals. To recover from wars and rebuild these ties, many countries undertake truth and reconciliation efforts. We examine the consequences of one such program in Sierra Leone, designed and implemented by a Sierra Leonean NGO. This program sets up community-level forums in which victims detail war atrocities, and perpetrators confess to war crimes. We use random assignment to study its impact across 200 villages. We find that reconciliation has both positive and negative consequences. On the one hand, it leads to greater forgiveness of perpetrators, and strengthens social capital: social networks were larger and people were more community-oriented, contributing more to public goods in treated villages. On the other hand, these benefits came at a substantial cost: the reconciliation process also worsened psychological health, increasing depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder in these same villages. All of the effects, both positive and negative, also persisted for nearly three years after the intervention. Our findings indicate that policymakers need to restructure reconciliation processes in ways that reduce their negative psychological costs, while retaining their positive societal benefits.
Archivo
Fecha	10/09/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Endogenous Time Horizon and Behavioral Poverty Trap: Theory and Evidence from Mozambique

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachid Laajaj, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	This paper provides a model where a long-term planning horizon improves economic decisions but also increases the salience of anticipated future utility. Hence, a gloomy future induces the agent to shorten her time horizon in order to reduce distress caused by the anticipation of poverty, at the cost of worsening her realized future consumption, resulting in a behavioral poverty trap where poverty and shortsightedness reinforce each other. The paper also provides primary empirical evidence of the endogenous determination of time horizon and of the existence of a behavioral poverty trap. Using a randomized controlled trial in Mozambique that provided agro-input subsidies and a Matched Savings program among 1,546 rural households, I show that improvement in economic prospects resulted in a significant increase in the planning horizon of the poor beneficiaries. Moreover, the increase in horizon significantly predicts the increase in asset accumulation of beneficiaries during the two years following the intervention.
Archivo
Fecha	08/09/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ A Demand for Air Quality: a Case Study in Bogotá, Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Fernando Carriazo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Coautor	John Alexander Gómez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Abstract	According to the World Health Organization, Bogotá is one of the most polluted urban areas in Latin America. Pollution levels surpass most ambient quality standards yet economic benefits from reducing air pollution are not well known. Our study contributes to welfare analysis of air quality improvements in Bogotá by identifying a demand function for air quality from a second stage hedonic model. This model combines air pollution quantities and implicit price information to identify a marginal willingness to pay function for ambient quality. To calculate potential welfare effects derived from pollution control policies, we further estimate consumer surplus measures due to the compliance of emission standards for three counterfactual scenarios: 1) the U.S Environmental Pollution Agency (EPA) standard, 2) the World Health Organization (WHO) standard, and 3) the proposed local standards for annual average of PM10.
Fecha	03/09/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Inestabilidad Tributaria y Crecimiento Económico

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hernando Zuleta, Facultad de Economia - Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Federico Filippinni y Marc Hofstetter, Facultad de Economia - Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	La frecuencia de los cambios en el estatuto tributarios genera, por los menos, tres problemas: (i) Cada cambio implica una modificación a los incentivos económicos que afecta las decisiones de consumo e inversión y la estructura sectorial de la economía. Por supuesto, estos cambios generan costos de ajuste y de transacción. Adicionalmente, si la reforma afecta incentivos de ahorro o inversión tiene también efectos negativos sobre la acumulación y el crecimiento de largo plazo. En la medida en que las reformas tributarias son más frecuentes aumenta la frecuencia con la que debemos pagar los costos mencionados. (ii) La posibilidad de nuevos cambios genera incertidumbre y esta afecta las decisiones de los agentes económicos. En la medida en que ignoramos las reglas futuras de juego estamos menos dispuestos a emprender proyectos de mediano y largo plazo. (iii) Muchas veces los cambios aumentan la extensión y complejidad del estatuto tributario lo cual genera confusión y hace difícil la toma de decisiones por parte de los agentes económicos. El propósito central de este trabajo es cuantificar el efecto de la inestabilidad tributaria sobre la actividad económica y estudiar los efectos en el tiempo (dinámicos) de la inestabilidad tributaria. Para cuantificar los dos primeros efectos se construye un índice de inestabilidad tributaria y se analiza su efecto sobre la actividad real. Para cuantificar el tercer efecto se toma el número de conceptos emitidos por la autoridad de recaudo (la DIAN) con posterioridad a la modificación de cada tributo. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que cada cambio mayor en la estructura tributario tiene un efecto negativo y significativo sobre el crecimiento económico de 5 por ciento. Del mismo modo, cada aumento en los conceptos emitidos por la DIAN tiene un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento. Además, estos índices están negativamente correlacionados con la tasa de inversión y con el Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC).
Fecha	01/09/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ La economía colombiana ante el cambio en el panorama externo: Argumentos para una reforma tributaria

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Leonardo Villar, Fedesarrollo
Abstract	La charla estará dirigida a mostrar el impacto que han tenido sobre la economía colombiana, y sobre sus finanzas públicas, el drástico cambio en el entorno internacional asociado al fin del super-ciclo de precios de los commodities y a la perspectiva de aumento en las tasas de interés en los Estados Unidos. En este marco, se mostrarán los argumentos que hacen indispensable una nueva reforma tributaria y se discutirán algunas de las características que debe tener esa reforma para corregir los enormes problemas que tiene el sistema tributario colombiano actual.
Fecha	27/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Over-Caution of Large Committees of Experts

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Tomás Rodríguez, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Coautor	Rune Midjord, University of Conpenhagen y Justin Valasek, WZB Berlin
Abstract	In this paper, we consider a committee of experts that decides whether to approve or reject a proposed innovation on behalf of society. In addition to a payoff linked to the adequateness of the committee’s decision, each expert receives a disesteem payoff if he/she voted in favor of an ill-fated innovation. An example is FDA committees, where committee members can be exposed to a disesteem payoff (negative) if they vote to pass a drug that proves to be fatal for some users. Under the standard voting model, we show that information is aggregated in large committees provided disesteem payoffs are not overly large. However, we go on to document an empirically-relevant discontinuity in the standard model: if an arbitrarily large number of signals does not perfectly reflect the state of the world then, no matter how small the disesteem payoffs are, information aggregation fails in large committees and the committee rejects the innovation almost surely, providing an explanation for over-caution in committees. Finally, we extend the model to include a disesteem payoff when an agent votes to reject a beneficial innovation, and provide closed form expressions capturing the limit behavior of the committee for generic combinations of the two kinds of disesteem payoffs.
Archivo
Fecha	25/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Entrepreneurship and Employment: Human Capital and Financing

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Felipe Balmaceda, Universidad Diego Portales – UDP
Abstract	Financing constraints and human capital are the biggest concerns impacting potential entrepreneurs around the world. Given the important role that entrepreneurship is believed to play in the process of economic growth, alleviating financing constraints and increasing human capital for would-be entrepreneurs is also an important goal for policymakers worldwide. This paper puts forth a rationale for entrepreneurship by employees of already established firms, which is one of the most common sources of new firms in many industries. We show that the value of entrepreneurship is such that general human capital and financial development are strategic complements, while firms' investments in general human capital and financial development are strategic substitutes. Firms underinvest in general human capital and therefore there is too little entrepreneurship. Despite the fact that improving financial development lowers firms' investment in human capital due to strategic substitutability, it increases entrepreneurship. These results suggest that policies aimed at deepening financial development will have a major impact on entrepreneurship only if they go hand-in hand with policies aimed at incentivizing human capital investment.
Fecha	18/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ La Gran Depresión y la Industrialización en Colombia, 1930-1953

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Adolfo Meisel-Roca, Banco de la República
Coautores	Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri y Maria Teresa Ramirez-Giraldo (Banco de la Republica)
Abstract	This paper analyzes the role of the Great Depression and protectionism in the Colombian industrialization of the early 1930s as well as the role of other determinants in the rapid industrialization that took place during the period 1934-1953. We conclude that the market pushed industrialization by reducing costs, generating economies of scale, learning by doing, giving place to agglomeration economies, and rapid technological change. This paper also examines the structure of the Colombian manufacturing sector in 1945, which was the result of the deep socio-economic transformations that took place in the previous decade. The results indicate that the industrialization process was uneven across regions, and that it was spatially concentrated. Estimations of a production function for industry in 1945 show that there were important differences in factor elasticities and productivities among sectors and regions, which led to different regional patterns of industrialization. In addition, the results indicate that labor productivity in 1945 was positively and significantly related to education and capital, whereas it was negatively related to the unskilled workers and the age of the firms.
Archivo
Fecha	11/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Enrique G. Mendoza, University of Pennsylvania, NBER and PIER
Coautor	Pablo D’Erasmo, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Abstract	Europe’s debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk-averse debt- and non-debt holders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset.
Archivo
Fecha	06/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence on adult noncognitive investments in Liberia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Christopher Blattman, Columbia University
Coautor	Jeannie Annan, International Rescue Committee
Abstract	States and aid agencies use employment programs to rehabilitate high-risk men in the belief that peaceful work opportunities will deter them from crime and violence. Rigorous evidence is rare. We experimentally evaluate a program of agricultural training, capital inputs, and counseling for Liberian ex-fighters who were illegally mining or occupying rubber plantations. 14 months after the program ended, men who accepted the program offer increased their farm employment and profits, and shifted work hours away from illicit activities. Men also reduced interest in mercenary work in a nearby war. Finally, some men did not receive their capital inputs but expected a future cash transfer instead, and they reduced illicit and mercenary activities most of all. The evidence suggests that illicit and mercenary labor supply responds to small changes in returns to peaceful work, especially future and ongoing incentives. But the impacts of training alone, without capital, appear to be low.
Fecha	04/08/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Testing the Signaling vs. Human Capital Theory: Evidence from a reform in Colombia’s top University"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	María Carolina Arteaga, estudiante de doctorado en UCLA
Abstract	In this paper I test the signaling and human capital theories in education at the college level. I exploit a reform at Universidad de los Andes in Colombia that in 2006 reduced from 4.5 to 4 years the time and courses required to earn a degree in economics and business. During this period, the size of the entering class and the average high school exit test scores remained the same, indicating the quantity and quality of students were not affected by the reform. Thus, the reform decreased human capital exogenously while holding the value of the education signal constant. This constitutes an ideal set up to learn about signaling vs. human capital. Using administrative data on wages and college attendance, I find that wages fell by approximately 11% in economics, and 7% in business. These results suggest that human capital plays an important role in wage determination, and reject a pure signaling model. In addition, comparing this number to an OLS estimate that combines both human capital and signaling effects, my results imply that human capital represents 99% of the return in schooling in economics and 65% in business.
Fecha	28/07/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Carry Trade and Monetary Policy in Latin America

Lugar	SD-503
Conferencista	José Ignacio López- HEC Paris
Coautor	Virginia Olivella - Banque de France
Abstract	Since the end of the 90s, many Central Banks in Latin America have adopted inflation targeting and used short-term interest rates as their main policy instrument. In this paper we discuss the relationship between short-term interest rates and exchange rates for 5 Latin American countries in the context of a model with preferences for early resolution of uncertainty and time-varying risk-premium. We find that differences in monetary policy between the US and Latin America can help to explain the excess returns of some of the currencies of the region.
Fecha	05/06/2015
Hora	11:00 am. a 12:30 pm.

+ A Signal of Altruistic Motivation for Foreign Aid: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Test

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrea Civelli, University of Arkansas
Coautores	Andrew W. Horowitz, University of Arkansas. Arilton Teixeira, FUCAPE Business School
Abstract	We develop a theoretical model showing that countercyclical transfers from a wealthy donor to a poorer recipient generate a signal of altruistic donor motivation. Using OECD foreign aid (ODA) data we find the signal present in approximately one-sixth of a large set of donor-recipient pairs. We then undertake two out-of-model exercises to validate the signal: a logit regression of signal determinants and the growth rffects of ODA from signal-positive pairs compared to non-signal bearers. The logit indicates our signal meaningfully distinguishes donor-recipient pairs by characteristics typically associated with altruism. The growth exercise shows ODA from signal bearers displays stronger reverse causation and more positive long-run effects. These results contribute to understanding, and control for, endogeneity in the distribution of ODA.
Archivo
Fecha	12/05/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Costas Meghir, Yale University, NBER and Institute for Fiscal Studies
Coautores	Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies; Sarah Cattan, Institute for Fiscal Studies; Emla Fitzsimons, UCL Institute of Education and Institute for Fiscal Studies, and Marta Rubio-Codina, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Inter-American Development Bank
Abstract	We examine the channels through which a randomized early childhood intervention in Colombia led to significant gains in cognitive and socio-emotional skills among a sample of disadvantaged children. We estimate production functions for cognitive and socio-emotional skills as a function of maternal skills and child's past skills, as well as material and time investments that are treated as endogenous. The effects of the program can be fully explained by increases in parental investments, which have strong effects on outcomes and are complementary to both maternal skills and child's past skills.
Archivo
Fecha	07/05/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Los docentes, las TICs y los resultados educativos: evidencia para Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Fabio Sánchez y Tatiana Velasco, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Darío Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Desde 2004, “Computadores para Educar”, un programa nacional en Colombia que equipa a colegios con computadores dándole acceso a la tecnología a los estudiantes, también ha capacitado a los docentes en el uso de las TICs en la enseñanza. Para 2014, más de 41,000 escuelas de las 46,000 existentes en Colombia han recibido computadores por el programa. Mientras tanto, de los 386,000 docentes del sistema educativo público, cerca de 74,000 han sido capacitados en TICs. Esta investigación tiene como propósito evaluar el efecto que estos docentes capacitados en TICs tienen sobre la tasa de deserción y el desempeño en pruebas estandarizadas de los estudiantes. Encontramos que mayor proporción de docentes capacitados en TICs en un área particular, mejora el desempeño de los estudiantes en dicha área (matemáticas, química, física, etc.) y que reduce la deserción. Los resultados indican que la presencia de docentes capacitados en TICs la tasa de deserción escolar y mejora el desempeño de los estudiantes en las pruebas SABER 11. Los resultados son robustos a distintas especificaciones, incluso luego de controlar por la razón computador-estudiantes en cada colegio. Estos resultados son evidencia de que lo que importa para el desempeño académico no es el acceso de los estudiantes a las TICs y los computadores, sino la capacitación de los docentes en el uso de las TICs para la enseñanza.
Fecha	05/05/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Migration, Roads, and Labor Market Integration: Evidence from a Planned Capital City

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jaqueline Oliveira, Economics Department - Clemson University
Coautor	Melanie Morten — Stanford University
Abstract	Wages in developing countries differ greatly across sector and across space. In Brazil, the average wage in a municipality at the 90th percentile of the wage distribution is 3.2 times larger than the average wage in a municipality at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution. Adjusting for individual characteristics, industry, and the cost of living, the 90/10 municipality wage gap is 2.1. These large differences in returns to labor present a spatial arbitrage puzzle: why do people not migrate to equalize wages across space? We propose one explanation: it is costly to move. We use the construction of a planned capital city, Brasilia, to generate plausibly exogenous variation in the national road network, and examine the role of roads in facilitating labor market integration. Using a database of gross inter-municipality flows, we construct and estimate a spatial equilibrium model where migration is costly. The results yield that access to roads is a key determinant of migration. Reducing the marginal cost of traveling by 50% would increase migration rates to 13%, from a base of 9.5%. This would yield an increase in mean welfare of 8.1%, and a reduction in the dispersion (standard deviation) by 6.2%. The effect is reduced by 4.3% once the general equilibrium effects of migration are computed.
Archivo
Fecha	30/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Franz Hamann, Director Departamento de Modelos Macroeconómicos, Banco de la República
Coautores	Jesús Bejarano y Diego Rodríguez, Banco de la República
Abstract	The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. We calibrate and estimate a variety of real and monetary dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models using Colombian historical data. We find that, in these artificial economies the macroeconomic effects can be large but vary depending on the structure of the economy. The main channels through which the shock passes to the economy come from the increased country risk premium, the real exchange rate depreciation, the sectoral reallocation of resources from nontradables to tradables and the sluggish adjustment of prices. Contrary to the conventional findings in the literature of the financial accelerator mechanism for single-good closed economies, in multiple-goods small open economies the financial accelerator does not play a significant role in magnifying macroeconomic fluctuations. The sectoral reallocation from nontradable to tradables diminishes the financial amplification mechanism.
Archivo
Fecha	28/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Efecto Causal de la Calidad de la Universidad Sobre el Mercado Laboral:; Evidencia Empírica para Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Hernando Bayona, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Asesora	Catherine Rodríguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Universidad de Harvard
Abstract	Este documento utiliza los datos del proceso de admisión de una universidad privada altamente selectiva en Colombia para analizar el impacto de la asistencia a la universidad en los resultados de la trayectoria educativa en el mercado laboral de las personas. El proceso de selección de la universidad permite el uso de un diseño de regresión discontinua. Se estiman tanto los efectos de ser admitido en la universidad altamente selectiva (intent-to-treatment, ITT) como el haberse matriculado (treatment-on-the-treated, TOT). Los resultados muestran efectos positivos de ser admitido sobre la probabilidad de matricularse (13.8%), repetir créditos académicos (1,3%), y la probabilidad de graduación (7%). A pesar de no encontrar efectos estadísticamente significativos sobre el examen estandarizado de salida de la universidad, se encuentran efectos positivos sobre la probabilidad de empleo y los salarios de 6,9% y 3,9% respectivamente. Aunque los efectos estimados usando TOT tienen una magnitud mucho mayor que los encontrados con ITT, TOT es consistente con ITT en cuanto a significancia y signo. Estos efectos son diferenciales a través de programas académicos.
Fecha	21/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Tax Debt Enforcement: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Microsoft Research
Coautor	Ugo Troiano, University of Michigan
Abstract	We present theory and supportive evidence on the enforcement of tax delinquencies, which are tax debts incurred with the government. In our model, the tax agency relies on both a financial penalty as well as a shaming penalty that involves publishing the names of tax delinquents online. The latter penalty is becoming increasingly common. We show that when the tax agency focuses on private welfare as well as revenues, the optimal policy involves a mix of financial and shaming penalties. To flesh out the interplay between financial and shaming penalties, we conducted a field experiment with 35,000 tax delinquents in three U.S. states who owed half a billion dollars. We find that increasing the salience of both financial and shaming penalties reduces tax delinquencies. We also provide suggestive evidence that the effectiveness of shaming and financial penalties depends on the garnishability of the debtor's
Archivo
Fecha	16/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Family Networks, Confidence and the Emergence of Financial Capital in Antioquia in the XIXth Century

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Andrés Álvarez & Javier Mejía Cubillos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	César Mantilla, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse
Abstract	Antioquia is considered the cradle of modern financial capitalism and entrepreneurial culture in Colombia. Moreover, this region is still characterized as dominated, politically and economically, by an entrepreneurial elite based on strong and secular family links. Most of these ideas are based on cultural and sociological evidence collected and analyzed independently from economic or entrepreneurial historical evidence. In this paper we try tackling and assessing the well founded and the economical implications of this hypothesis. We construct two new data sets. On the one hand, we use biographical information from around 1000 people belonging to the Antioquian 19th century elite allowing to construct a genealogy network based on parental, sibling and marriage links among this population. On the other hand, we compile evidence from stock ownership data from private banks and commercial houses since 1860s - 1890s and match it with the individual information of the Antioquian economic elite. We compute three different measures of network centrality: the degree, measuring the number of connections per node; the betweenness, measuring the relative importance of each node connecting other nodes; and the closeness, measuring the average distance for a node with respect to the other nodes. We find that all these measures are positive and significantly correlated with the likelihood of having stock participation in private banks or commercial houses. We interpret these correlations as evidence of the relevance of social capital among the first entrepreneurial elite in the emergence of banking systems in Latin America.
Archivo
Fecha	14/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Long Term Impacts of Vouchers for Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence for Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Carlos Medina, Banco de la República-Sucursal Medellín
Coautores	Orazio Attanasio, University College of London; Arlen Guarín, Banco de la República; y Costas Meghir, Yale University
Abstract	We use experimental data of a training program in 2005 in Colombia. We find that the JeA program had a positive and significant effect on the probability to work in the formal sector. Applicants in the treatment group also contributed more months during the analyzed period. Maximum spells in the formal sector were also longer for beneficiaries of the JeA program and more likely to work for a large firm. Earnings of treated applicants were 10.3 higher in the whole sample and made larger contributions to social security. Nonetheless, when we evaluate the differences in earnings by treatment status of those already working in the formal sector, we find no significant difference between the treatment and control groups, suggesting that most of the effect of the program in the labor market is capitalized in the significant increase in the likelihood of working in the formal sector, more than in increases in their productivity, once in the formal sector. We also find that for the whole sample of applicants, those in the treatment group have 0.18 more years of education, have a probability of graduating from high school 3.1 percent higher, and a probability 2.3 percent higher of attending school. College attendance at the time of the SISBEN survey is 21.8 percent higher in relative terms for applicants in the treatment group in the whole sample. We find no significant effect on fertility decisions, marital status or some dimensions of assortative matching. We do not find any effect on the probability to work in the informal sector or on their informal earnings. Finally, we find that the benefits of the JeA program are higher than it costs, leading to an internal rate of return of 15.5 percent. On the whole, the program was a cost-effective alternative, worth to consider to bridging the transit of youths from the informal to the informal sectors in the future.
Fecha	09/04/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Bank Runs in Monetary Economies

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	David Andolfatto, Vice President, Federal Reserve of St. Louis
Coautores	Fernando Martin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; and Aleksander Berentsen, University of Basel
Abstract	We combine a Diamond and Dybvig (1983) banking system with a Lagos and Wright (2008) dynamic general equilibrium monetary model. Equilibrium bank-runs are driven by sunpots and shocks to fundamentals. The expected frequency of these shocks affects ex ante bank portfolio decisions: investment is low in unstable economies. The Friedman rule does not eliminate bank-runs. A narrow-banking regime eliminates bank-runs, but at a welfare cost that may be worth paying in unstable regimes. Suspension of withdrawals eliminates bank-runs when they are driven by sunspots, but not when they are driven by fundamentals. When bank-runs are driven by fundamentals, monetary injections to the banking sector replaces bank-runs with an orderly partial default episodes.
Fecha	07/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Income Taxation, Political Accountability and the Provision of Public Goods

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Oskar Nupia, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	Using an agency-voting model and considering different income tax schedules, we analyze whether an increase in the marginal tax rates—or, alternatively, more tax progressivity—positively affects the degree of political accountability and the provision of public goods. We find that there are two necessary (but not sufficient) conditions to unambiguously observe this outcome. The change in taxes must generate an increase in the total tax revenues, and must negatively affect the pivotal voter's disposable income. If these two conditions hold and the pivotal voter's relative valuation for public good (normalized by his income) is high enough, then the said outcome can be observed. Furthermore, in the presence of a nonlinear tax system, this outcome is easier to be observed when the difference between the pivotal voter's income and the break-even income point is large.
Fecha	24/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Contexto Histórico y evolución del SGP en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Jaime Bonet, Gerente – Banco de la República Sucursal Cartagena
Coautores	Javier Pérez (Banco de la República - Sucursal Cartagena); Jhorland Ayala (Banco de la República – Sucursal Cartagena)
Abstract	En este documento se estudia el funcionamiento reciente del sistema de transferencias, en particular a partir de la creación del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). De igual forma se analiza el balance entre las competencias y los recursos de los gobiernos subnacionales y se ofrecen algunas recomendaciones en el marco de una futura reforma al SGP. Los resultados dejan ver un sistema de transferencias complejo, no solo en su estructura sino en los criterios de asignación de los recursos. En cuanto a los logros de la última reforma, se encontró que en general las metas establecidas no se cumplieron, que estas se fijaron únicamente en cobertura y no en calidad y que no hicieron una diferenciación para las áreas rural y urbana. En cuanto al paralelo entre competencias y recursos, se encontró que los departamentos están en desventaja en relación a los municipios si se tiene en cuenta que son los que menos recursos reciben y con mayores responsabilidades a cargo, especialmente en su papel de gestores de las competencias de los municipios no certificados.
Fecha	12/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Political Constraints and State Capacity: Evidence from a Land Allocation Program in Mexico

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Leopoldo Fergusson y Juan Felipe Riaño, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Horacio Larreguy (Harvard)
Abstract	In this paper we contribute to the understanding of the politics of state building. We emphasize that incumbent clientelistic parties might have incentives to sustain state fragility when politically challenged. We develop a theoretical model of the politics of state strengthening, and test its implications exploiting a unique policy program from Mexico. Incumbent clientelistic parties have a comparative advantage in clientelism as opposed to in public good provision. Investments in state capacity –conceived as a reduction of the cost of providing public goods– consequently undermine their comparative advantage. Therefore, when politically challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents may oppose to state capacity investments. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a unique land allocation program in Mexico. When granting land to communities, the government decided whether to locate them close or far from municipality heads, thus affecting its future ability to provide public goods. Our empirical design uses the distance of the newly allocated land from municipality heads as a measure of local state capacity choice, and exploits a national shock that threatened the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)’s hegemony in the early 1960s but had different intensity across the various Mexican municipalities. Our difference-in-differences estimates corroborate that the PRI allocated land farther away from municipality heads in places where it expected more political contestation.
Fecha	17/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Mortality Transition, Malthusian Dynamics, and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Remi Jedwab, Assistant Professor, George Washington University
Coautor	Dietrich Vollrath (University of Houston)
Abstract	The largest cities in the world today lie mainly in relatively poor countries, which is a departure from historical experience, when the largest cities were typically found in the richest places. Using new data on the demographic history of the 100 largest megacities of today, we establish several new stylized facts distinguishing poor mega-cities from historically rich mega-cities. To account for these facts we develop a model that combines Malthusian models of endogenous population growth with urban models of agglomeration and congestion, and it shows that the absolute growth of the urban population determines whether a city becomes a poor or rich mega-city. We posit that poor mega-cities arose in part because the post-war mortality transition raised their absolute growth above a crucial threshold. Poor mega-cities continue to grow in size but not in living standards because their poverty keeps population growth high. By expanding prior to the mortality transition, historical mega-cities experienced smaller absolute growth that allowed them to sustain wage growth and kept population growth relatively low
Fecha	12/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Intrahousehold Bargaining, Female Autonomy, and Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence from India

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachel Heath, Assistant Professor-University of Washington
Coautor	Xu Tan (also University of Washington)
Abstract	Standard models of labor supply predict that unearned income decreases labor supply. We propose an alternative noncooperative bargaining model in which a woman's unearned income improves her autonomy within the household, which raises her utility of working and can increase her labor supply. By contrast, we show that a collective household model unambiguously predicts that a woman's unearned income decreases her labor supply. We find empirical support for the noncooperative bargaining model, using the Hindu Succession Act in India as a source of exogenous variation in a woman's unearned income.
Archivo
Fecha	10/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Capacidad estatal en los municipios colombianos: medidas y determinantes

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Guillermo Perry, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Coautores	Eduardo García y Pedro Jiménez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract	En este trabajo se construye un conjunto de indicadores de Capacidad Estatal para los municipios colombianos, enfocado en cuatro competencias gubernamentales: fiscal, financiera, física y operativa. En primer lugar, se seleccionaron variables relevantes de un amplio acervo de fuentes y se clasificaron según estas cuatro categorías. En segundo lugar, se construyeron indicadores sintéticos usando la metodología de Componentes Principales (seis en total puesto que las capacidades operativas se dividieron en tres subcategorías). Estos indicadores permiten identificar efectos diferenciados de un amplio grupo de determinantes potenciales y controles sobre cada uno de los componentes de capacidad estatal. Tales determinantes incluyen características geográficas, recursos naturales, conflicto armado interno, competencia política local y población indígena e inmigración durante el período colonial. Los controles incluyen ingreso per cápita y densidad de población actual. Esta selección interdisciplinaria de variables provee una explicación holística de la Capacidad Estatal relacionada con la prestación de servicios públicos en los municipios colombianos.
Fecha	03/03/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Perspectivas económicas: La historia sin fin

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Andrés Pardo, Director Ejecutivo de Investigaciones Económicas de Corficolombiana
Fecha	26/02/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Subsidies and the Persistence of Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Mozambique

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Rachid Lajaaj, Paris School of Economics
Coautores	Michael R. Carter, University of California, Davis y Dean Yang, University of Michigan
Abstract	We report the results of a randomized experiment testing impacts of subsidies for modern agricultural inputs in rural Mozambique. One-time provision of a voucher for fertilizer and improved seeds leads to substantial increases in fertilizer use, which persist through two subsequent agricultural seasons. Voucher receipt also leads to large, persistent increases in household agricultural production and market sales, per capita consumption, assets, durable good ownership, and housing improvements. Consistent with learning models of the adoption decision, we find positive treatment effects on farmers' estimated returns to the input package. We also document positive cross-household treatment spillovers: one's own fertilizer use rises in the number of social network members receiving vouchers. Our findings are consistent with theoretical models predicting persistence of impacts of temporary technology adoption subsidies, in particular due to learning effects.
Archivo
Fecha	17/02/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Occupational choice and social interactions: A Study of Victorian London

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	José Guerra, University College London
Coautor	Myra Mohnen, University College London
Archivo
Fecha	5/02/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ What Explains the Great Recession and the Slow Recovery?

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Pablo Cuba-Borda, University of Maryland
Archivo
Fecha	3/02/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Waiting for the Paycheck: Individual and Aggregate Effects of Wage Payment Frequency

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Ines Berniell, CEMFI
Archivo
Fecha	29/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Information and Crime Perceptions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Luigi Minale, University College London
Coautor	Nicola Mastrorocco (LSE)
Archivo
Fecha	27/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Demand Shocks and Endogenous Uncertainty

Lugar	ML-513
Conferencista	Diego Vilán, University of Southern California
Descripción	Recessions have been documented as periods of heightened aggregate and firm-level uncertainty. To date explanations have either hinged on the notion that second moment shocks have adverse first order effects, or that negative first moments disturbances are responsible for the observed surges in cross sectional dispersion. I explore the symbiotic relationship between uncertainty and aggregate economic activity and propose framework where endogenous uncertainty may exacerbate or abate aggregate shocks hitting the economy. U.S. Compustat and ShopperTrak data are used to discipline an incomplete markets, heterogeneous-firms framework which is able to reproduce the right business cycle comovements. Results indicate that fluctuations in uncertainty are responsible for about one quarter of aggregate fluctuations in output and employment.
Fecha	23/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Dynamic Moral Hazard, Risk-Shifting, and Optimal Capital Structure"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Alejandro Rivera, Boston University
Archivo
Fecha	22/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women's Reproductive Choices Schooling and Labor Supply"

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Diego Amador, University of Pennsylvania
Archivo
Fecha	20/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Large Currency Depreciations and Menu Costs"

Lugar	SD-702
Conferencista	Federico Grinberg, University of California at Los Angeles
Descripción	This paper studies why inflation in consumer prices is so low after episodes of large currency depreciations in emerging economies, and to what extent this is a consequence of nominal rigidities. Using a small open economy model with menu-cost nominal frictions that is calibrated to micro data from Mexico's Consumer Price Index, I find that in episodes of large depreciations, the effect of nominal rigidities in retail prices are quantitatively small and short lived. The incomplete exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is largely a result of a fall in real wages explained by negative real shocks and nominal stickiness in wages.
Archivo
Fecha	16/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Are Capital Controls Prudential? An Empirical Investigation

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Fernandez (BID)
Descripción	Co-autores: Alessandro Rebucci (The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School) y Martín Uribe (Department of Economics - Columbia University) A growing recent theoretical literature advocates the use of prudential capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on cross-border capital flows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in a large number of countries over the period 1995-2011. We find that capital controls are remarkably acyclical. Boom-bust episodes in output, the current account, or the real exchange rate are associated with virtually no movements in capital controls. These results are robust to decomposing boom-bust episodes along a number of dimensions, including the level of development, the level of external indebtedness, or the exchange-rate regime. We also document a near complete acyclicality of capital controls during the Great Contraction of 2007-2009.
Archivo
Fecha	31/07/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Incentivizing schooling for learning: Evidence on the impact of alternative targeting approaches”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Felipe Barrera-Osorio (Harvard Graduate School of Education)
Descripción	Co-autor: Deon Filmer (World Bank) We evaluate a primary school scholarship program in Cambodia with two different targeting mechanisms, one based on poverty level and the other on baseline test scores (“merit”). Both targeting mechanisms increased enrollment and attendance. However, only the merit-based targeting induced positive effects on test scores. We show that the asymmetry of response is unlikely to have been driven by differences between recipients’ characteristics. Higher student and family effort among beneficiaries of the merit-based scholarships suggest that the framing of the scholarship mattered for impact. The results suggest that in order to balance equity and efficiency a two-step targeting approach might be preferable: first, target low-income individuals, and then, among them, target based on merit.
Fecha	29/07/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Information Frictions, Nominal Shocks, And The Role of Inventories in Price-Setting Decisions

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Camilo Morales-Jiménez, PhD student University of Maryland College Park
Descripción	Models with information frictions display output and inflation dynamics that are consistent with the empirical evidence. However, an assumption in the existing literature is that pricing managers do not interact with production managers within firms. If this assumption were relaxed, nominal shocks would not have real effects on the economy. In this paper, I present a model with perfect communication within firms in which nominal shocks have real effects. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters. I show that if firms make investment decisions and if their nominal input prices and demand do not perfectly reveal the state of nature, the economy exhibits money non-neutrality even under flexible prices and perfect communication within firms.
Archivo
Fecha	10/06/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Raising agricultural productivity and land values through greenhouse gas policy: lessons for Colombia from New Zealand”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Suzi Kerr, Profesor Visitante - Universidad de los Andes y Senior Fellow - Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, New Zealand
Fecha	27/05/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Inducing Risk Neutral Preferences with Binary Lotteries: A Reconsideration and an Application”.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Jimmy Martinez, Department of Economics - Copenhagen Business School.
Descripción	Coautores: Glenn W. Harrison (Department of Risk Management & Insurance and Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University) y J. Todd Swarthout (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)
Fecha	15/05/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "The impact of index-based insurance on informal risk sharing networks"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Steve Boucher, University of California, Davis
Descripción	Coautor: Matthieu Delpierre (Université Catholique de Louvain) Moral hazard and adverse selection impede the development of formal crop insurance markets, particularly in developing countries. While informal risk-sharing arrangements offer an alternative to formal insurance markets, the risk mitigation they provide is restricted by limited commitment, moral hazard and their inability to protect against covariate shocks. In this context, index-based insurance is seen as a promising scheme. By construction, it is immune to moral hazard and adverse selection and, if well-designed, offers effective protection against covariate shocks. At first glance, it would thus seem that the two institutions are ideal complements; by offering protection against covariate shocks, index insurance should strengthen the capacity of informal risk sharing arrangements to protect against idiosyncratic shocks. Unfortunately, this intuition ignores the potential effects on incentives and behavior generated by the interaction between the two insurance schemes. This paper theoretically explores this interaction in a model with moral hazard and shows that the formal contract may crowd out informal risk-sharing if it is offered to individuals rather than groups. More precisely, we find that the rate of informal risk-sharing is reduced as soon as individual demand for index-insurance becomes interior. Second, we find that both risk-taking and welfare may be reduced by the introduction of index insurance if the premium is set too high. This adverse effect is due to the worsening of moral hazard in risk taking caused by the introduction of formal insurance. If the formal insurance is offered to the group instead of the individual, the impact on moral hazard is internalized by the group and welfare increases. This result provides an argument for exploring the feasibility of introducing group-based index insurance contracts.
Fecha	13/05/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Distribución Regional de las Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo en Colombia”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Oskar Nupia, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha	08/05/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Efecto del crédito universitario en el acceso a la educación superior y en los desempeños académico y laboral en Colombia: el caso del crédito ACCES.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Fabio Sánchez y Tatiana Velasco, CEDE - Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautora: Tatiana Velasco Rodríguez (CEDE – Universidad de Los Andes) Esta investigación determina el efecto del crédito para educación superior ACCES en Colombia sobre indicadores de acceso a educación superior, desempeño académico y laboral de sus beneficiarios. Utilizando la metodología de regresión discontinua y análisis de mediación se encuentra que los beneficiarios de este crédito tienen menor deserción, mejor desempeño universitario medido por materias aprobadas y probabilidad de graduación. Una vez en el mercado laboral tienen mayor probabilidad de vincularse a un empleo formal, exhiben tiempo de búsqueda más largos así como también mejores salarios. La investigación utiliza datos para más de 400 mil aspirantes al crédito con información desde su ingreso a la educación superior hasta su inserción en el mercado laboral como profesionales.
Fecha	06/05/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Beyond Expected Utility in the Economics of Health and Longevity

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marla Ripoll, University of Pittsburgh
Descripción	Coautor: Juan Carlos Córdoba (Iowa State University)
Archivo
Fecha	29/04/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Contribución extranjera en la economía colombiana: evidencia histórica y cuantitativa

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Humberto Bernal, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía
Descripción	Este documento presenta la contribución económica de la población extranjera en Colombia desde mediados del siglo XIX. La contribución realizada por los extranjeros se presenta desde dos perspectivas: histórica y cuantitativa. Desde el punto de vista histórico se presentan las principales contribuciones de los extranjeros según región. La cuantificación de la contribución de los extranjeros en Colombia se realiza bajo una perspectiva agregada donde se utiliza la función de demanda y oferta de trabajo, y los efectos de las externalidades positivas que los extranjeros generan en la economía. Además, se contempla un modelo de series de tiempo (VEC) para cuantificar el impacto de largo plazo de la contribución de los extranjeros en la economía. Los principales resultados del estudio son una contribución importante de los extranjeros en el desarrollo del transporte, agricultura, comercio, industria, arquitectura, educación y minería. Se calcula que la contribución de los extranjeros se encuentra entre el 0,04% y 1,0% del PIB Colombiano durante 1925 y 2012; en términos per-cápita de los extranjeros pasaron de una contribución de Col$2,4 millones de 2012 en 1925 a Col$9,4 millones en 2012. Además, la contribución es permanente y se calcula en un aporte al crecimiento económico de Colombia del 0,66% del PIB. Finalmente, conflictos internacionales como la WWII e internos como el conflicto político armado colombiano han generado emigración transitoria de extranjeros, lo que implica una perdida en el crecimiento del PIB colombiano del 1,0%.
Archivo
Fecha	22/04/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Impulsando el ahorro entre jóvenes de bajos recursos: Evidencia experimental con mensajes de texto

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Catherine Rodriguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Juan Esteban Saavedra, Economista investigador del Centro de Investigación Económica y Social Dornsife, Universidad de California del Sur. Estudios recientes demuestran que el ahorro de niños y jóvenes puede tener impactos positivos importantes en el corto y mediano plazo en diversas dimensiones. Sin embargo, poco se sabe acerca de cuáles son los mecanismos más eficientes para fomentar hábitos de ahorro en la población joven y especialmente en aquella vulnerable. A través de un experimento aleatorio controlado este trabajo pretende responder si recordatorios o mensajes de educación financiera enviados a través de los celulares pueden o no convertirse en instrumentos que ayuden a fomentar el ahorro juvenil. La información disponible permite analizar el impacto directo en ahorro neto, depósitos y retiros durante un periodo de cera de un año. Además, nos permite responder a preguntas como el impacto diferencial que tiene: i) distintos tipos de mensajes; ii) distinta intensidad de los mensajes y iii) el impacto de largo plazo de los mensajes una vez dejan de ser recibidos.
Fecha	10/04/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Violence and the Formation of Pessimistic Prospects of Upward Mobility and Hopelessness in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Moya, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Michael R. Carter (Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis). Violence has severe material and psychological consequences. In this article we explore if it also induces pessimistic prospects of upward mobility and hopelessness. For this purpose, we bring together novel data from a sample of individuals residing in violent-torn regions in Colombia, including some who were directly victimized and displaced during last ten years. We find that victims exhibit lower prospects of upward mobility and higher levels of hopelessness. Interestingly, a considerable portion of such pessimistic behavior is explained by the severity of the victimization episodes and the incidence of depression. These results suggest that violence, as well as other negative shocks, can shatter hopes and aspirations thus hindering the ability of victims to move out of poverty
Fecha	08/04/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Mission: Economic Persistence, Human Capital Transmission and Culture in South America

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Felipe Valencia Caicedo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra & London School of Economics
Descripción	This research project documents the long-term economic impact of the Guarani Jesuit Missions in South America. It does so by combining data from historical Archives and municipal level Census data from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Missions resulted in higher levels of income and educational attainment today. Results are robust to the inclusion of geographic controls and the usage of instrumental variables to proxy for missionary distance. Using intermediate historical censuses, human capital appears consistently higher closer to missionary districts. This persistence of educational transmission is consistent with cultural explanations, such as native assimilation and the persistence of occupational activities. Additional tests suggest that migration and tourism are not driving the results, and that the impact is specific to missions from the Jesuit (as opposed to the Franciscan) order.
Fecha	27/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Public development banks and access to credit: empirical evidence for Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marcela Eslava, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Marcela Meléndez (Econestudio) y Alessandro Maffioli (BID)
Fecha	25/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Banking Competition and Stability: The Role of Leverage

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Xavier Freixas, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Descripción	Coautor: Kebin Ma, University of Tilburg
Archivo
Fecha	18/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Uncertainty-driven Labor Market Fluctuations”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Michael Pries, University of Notre Dame
Archivo
Fecha	13/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ On Kindleberger and Hegemony: From Berlin to M.I.T. and Back

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Stephen Meardon, Bowdoin College
Fecha	11/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Low Interest Rates and the Use of Reserve Requirements in Emerging Markets"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andreas Hoffmann, Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig
Descripción	Coautor: Axel Löffler (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Archivo
Fecha	06/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Tributación Minera en Colombia: Eficiencia y recaudo

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Guillermo Perry, Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Duanjie Chen, Universidad de Calgary
Archivo
Fecha	04/03/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Teoría del Valor Trabajo Abstracto y Teoría de los Precios

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Samuel Jaramillo, Universidad de los Andes
Archivo
Fecha	25/02/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Decentralization and Governmental Transfers in Colombia: Searching for Equity in a Bumpy Economic Geography.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan Mauricio Ramírez, Fedesarrollo
Descripción	Coautores: Yadira Díaz, Universidad de Essex y Juan Guillermo Bedoya, Fedesarrollo
Archivo
Fecha	18/02/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Local state history and contemporary conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Brown University
Archivo
Fecha	13/02/2014

+ Institutional Investors Flows and the Geography of Contagion.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Damien Puy, European University Institute
Fecha	11/02/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Human capital and labor informality in Chile: A life-cycle approach.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Italo López, University College of London (UCL)
Archivo
Fecha	06/02/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Impact from in-utero and early-life shocks on human capital formation: Evidence from El Niño in Ecuador.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	María Fernanda Rosales, Harris School (University of Chicago)
Archivo
Fecha	04/02/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Industry Dynamics, Investment and Business Cycles.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Julieta Caunedo, Washington University in St. Louis
Archivo
Fecha	30/01/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Identifying the effects of simultaneous monetary policy shocks: Fear of floating under inflation targeting.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Mauricio Villamizar, Georgetown University
Archivo
Fecha	28/01/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Currency Crises and the ADR Shadow Exchange Rate

Lugar	SD-701
A cargo	Federico Filippini, New York University
Archivo
Fecha	24/01/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Testing for spatial market integration: Evidence for Colombia using a pair-wise approach.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Jesús Otero, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción	Coautor: Ana María Iregui, Banco de la República
Fecha	21/01/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo (ORMET): Analizando el Mercado Laboral desde una perspectiva regional

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Oliverio Huertas - Coordinador Nacional Proyecto Red ORMET
Descripción	Las estadísticas oficiales muestran que Colombia avanza en la reducción del desempleo. Desde enero hasta agosto de 2013 la Tasa de Desempleo (TD) bajó en 3 puntos porcentuales, llegando a 9,3%. Sin embargo, los estudios de la Red ORMET evidencian que la calidad del empleo del país no es la mejor. Por esta razón, el ejercicio de observación se ha desarrollado de manera crítica, de forma tal que los gobiernos puedan pensar en políticas concretas y definitivas, que le apunten; no solo a la reducción de la TD, sino al aumento de la calidad y la reducción de la informalidad reconociendo las diferencias poblacionales y regionales, entre otros. El proyecto Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo (ORMET) se creó para fortalecer las capacidades técnicas y operativas de Observatorios Regionales para generar información precisa y pertinente sobre el mercado laboral. Estas instancias se han convertido en una herramienta de producción, monitoreo, análisis y difusión de información que facilita la toma de decisiones de los actores públicos y privados, con respecto a la oferta y demanda de empleo en el país. El proyecto le apunta a la reducción del desempleo mediante investigaciones que se articulan con apuestas y estrategias del gobierno y de actores clave, reconociendo que es importante que las instituciones del orden nacional y local avancen en la generación de capacidades y oportunidades para que los individuos y las familias ingresen al mercado laboral y tengan la posibilidad de generar ingresos de manera digna y sostenible. Hoy en día el Proyecto tiene 20 Observatorios Regionales en el territorio nacional gracias al trabajo conjunto del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD), el Departamento para la Prosperidad Social (DPS) y el Ministerio de Trabajo. Desde sus comienzos, se han lanzado una colección de publicaciones dirigida a incidir en la política nacional y regional, con el fin de impactar positivamente en el desempeño del mercado laboral en el país.
Fecha	28/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Dinero, trabajo asalariado e indigencia.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Hernando Matallana, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha	21/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Firm Financing Scope, Corporate Governance and Product Market Competition

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Felipe Balmaceda Mahns, Universidad Diego Portales
Fecha	19/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Anthropometric measurements by ethnicity in Colombia, 1965–1990

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Karina Acosta, Banco de la República
Descripción	Coautor: Adolfo Meisel, Centro de Estudios Económicos Regionales CEER We analyzed the evolution of height in Colombia of cohorts born in the period 1965–1990 by ethnic groups. We found that Afro-Colombian men and women were the tallest: 6 cm taller than indigenous people and 2 cm taller than the rest of the population. We also found that the height gap between Afro-Colombians and others decreased during the period under study by 0.7 cm for both men and women. While improvements were noticeable among the Afro-Colombians and those who chose not to be classified by ethnicity, in the case of the indigenous population only female cohorts registered an average-height increase of 1.5 cm. Moreover, we found that indigenous Colombians were more likely than other ethnic groups to experience an increase in biological well-being as a consequence of an improvement in their socio-economic status, thereby reducing the average-stature gap between them and the rest of the population by 2.1 and 3.6 cm for men and women, respectively.
Archivo
Fecha	14/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Family Involvement and Dividend Policy in Closely-Held Firms

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Carlos Pombo, School of Management, Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Maximiliano González, School of Management, Universidad de los Andes; Alexander Guzmán y María–Andrea Trujillo, CESA School of Business and School of Management, Universidad de los Andes This paper examines how family involvement affects the amount and likelihood of dividend payment in ways that may influence agency problems between majority and minority shareholders, and between owners and managers. Drawing on a database of 458 closely-held Colombian companies, we find that family influence on dividend policy varies depending on type of involvement: Family involvement in management has little or no impact on dividend policy; family involvement through direct or indirect ownership impacts dividend policy negatively; and family involvement on the board affects dividend policy positively, even when the CEO is a member of the founding family.
Archivo
Fecha	12/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ On some formal concepts of testability

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alvaro J. Riascos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Xavier Caicedo (Departamento de Matemáticas - UNIANDES) We provide a structural (algebraic) characterization of the empirical content of any axiomatizable class of structures in a compact logic. This characterization provides a common framework to think about Chambers et. al (2013) and Simon et. al (1973) concepts of empirical content and motivates a generalization of the concept of rationalizable data sets and the empirical content of a class of structures. We give structural and syntactical characterizations. As an application we introduce a notion of approximately consistent data with a class of structures.
Fecha	05/11/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, UC Berkeley, Penn State and NBER
Descripción	Coautores: Costas Arkolakis, Yale and NBER; Arnaud Costinot, MIT and NBER y Dave Donaldson, MIT and NBER We study the pro-competitive effects of international trade, or lack thereof, in models with monopolistic competition, firm-level heterogeneity, and variable markups. Under standard restrictions on consumers’ demand and the distribution of firms’ productivity, we derive two theoretical results. First, although markups vary across firms, the distribution of markups and the share of aggregate profits in revenues are invariant to changes in openness to trade. Second, although the distribution of markups and the share of aggregate profits in revenues are unaffected by trade, gains from trade liberalization are weakly lower than those predicted by the models with constant markups considered in Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare (2012).
Fecha	29/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “A poner la casa en orden en materia de política industrial”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marco Llinás V., Vicepresidente Consejo Privado de Competitividad
Archivo
Fecha	24/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Resultados de la modernización de la atención integral a la primera infancia a través de centros de desarrollo

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Raquel Bernal, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Ximena Peña (Universidad de los Andes), Orazio Attanasio, Marcos Vera (IFS y UCL, UK) En esta serie de estudios se analiza el efecto de la transición de hogares comunitarios a centros de desarrollo infantil en Colombia sobre el bienestar de los niños y niñas beneficiarios de la política de atención integral. En el primer paper se estudia el efecto de la transición de niños en hogares comunitarios a jardines sociales del bienestar, que posteriormente fueron adaptados a los lineamientos de la Estrategia De Cero a Siempre bajo la modalidad de Centros de Desarrollo Infantil (CDI). Con base en un experimento social controlado que asignó hogares comunitarios de manera aleatoria al tratamiento, se estudian los efectos de la transición sobre nutrición, salud, desarrollo cognitivo y desarrollo socioemocional en una muestra total de 15 CDIs y 2,700 niños. En el segundo paper se presentan los impactos de un proveedor particular de servicios en centro, aeioTU, sobre niños y niñas beneficiarios del programa entre la línea de base y el primer seguimiento, apenas 8 meses después. En este caso, la evaluación se llevó a cabo con base en un experimento social controlado que asignó 600 niños de 1,200 de manera aleatoria al tratamiento. El estudio se enfoca, en este caso, en los efectos sobre los niños menores de 3 años de edad. AeioTU es uno de los proveedores de servicios integrales a la primera infancia con unas características que lo diferencian del resto, principalmente, el hecho de que cofinancia hasta 25% de la canasta que ofrece el Estado. Este estudio es relevante porque el gasto por niño/año pasa de USD 480 en hogares comunitarios de bienestar a USD 1,500 en centros. Por tanto, es importante entender si el aumento en inversión se traduce también en mejoras significativas en el bienestar de niños y niñas.
Fecha	22/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ No Todo lo que Brilla es Oro: Minería y Trabajo Infantil en Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Rafael Santos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha	15/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Xavier Giné, World Bank
Descripción	Coautores: Shawn Cole (Harvard Business School), James Vickery (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Weather is a key source of income risk for many firms and households, particularly in emerging market economies. This paper studies how an innovative risk management instrument for hedging rainfall risk affects production decisions among a sample of Indian agricultural firms, using a randomized controlled trial approach. We find that the provision of insurance induces farmers to shift production towards higher-return but higher-risk cash crops, particularly amongst more-educated farmers. Our results support the view that financial innovation may help mitigate the real effects of uninsured production risk. In a second experiment we elicit willingness to pay for insurance policies that differ in their contract terms, using the Becker-DeGroot-Marshak mechanism. Willingness-to-pay is increasing in the actuarial value of the insurance, but substantially less than one-for-one, suggesting that farmers’ valuations are inconsistent with a fully rational benchmark.
Fecha	10/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Cost of Identity

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Rajiv Sethi, Columbia University
Descripción	Coautor: Rohini Somanathan, Delhi School of Economics We present a model in which identity groups are distributed across geographical locations and public goods are local and non-rival within them. Given a distribution of the population of groups across villages, we characterize a utilitarian planner's solution which maximizes the social benefit from public goods for a fixed budget. We then compare this with the allocation of public goods when an elite group controls the public budget and cares only about the welfare of its members. We term the difference between these two outcomes as the cost of identity. Our interest is in understanding how public good access and the mobility of disadvantaged groups is influenced by their proximity to elites. As an application, we use data from the Census of India to examine whether the differential mobility of disadvantaged castes and tribes in India can be explained by their exposure to more powerful groups in ways predicted by the model.
Fecha	08/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Genetic Testing with Primary Prevention and Moral Hazard

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Philippe De Donder, Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ-CNRS and IDEI), France
Descripción	Coautor: David Bardey We develop a model where a genetic test reveals whether an individual has a low or high probability of developing a disease. Testing is not mandatory, but agents have to reveal their test results to the insurers, facing a discrimination risk. A costly prevention effort allows agents with a genetic predisposition to decrease their probability to develop the disease. We study the individual decisions to take the test and to undertake the prevention effort as a function of the effort cost and of its efficiency. If effort is observable by insurers, agents undertake the test only if the effort cost is neither too large nor too small. If the effort cost is not observable by insurers, moral hazard increases the value of the test if the effort cost is low. We offer several policy recommendations, from the optimal breadth of the tests to policies to do away with the discrimination risk.
Archivo
Fecha	01/10/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Field Experiments on Sharing in a Risky Social Dilemma

Lugar	ML-509
A cargo	Jim Murphy (University of Alaska Anchorage)
Descripción	Coautores: Lance Howe (University of Alaska Anchorage), Colin West (University of North Carolina), Drew Gerkey (Oregon State University). This paper will present the results from a series of field experiments conducted in Kamchatka Russia and Western Alaska that focus on sharing and cooperation in a risky social dilemma. We find strong evidence of risk pooling even without an external commitment device or an opportunity for reciprocity. When faced with idiosyncratic risk, participants make large unconditional direct transfers to individuals who incur a loss, even in the absence of any information about the cooperative behavior of the affected person. However, as more information is revealed, sharing decisions are increasingly conditioned on the cooperative behavior of the affected individual. We also find that in a social environment in which a reputation can be established, voluntary sharing and collective action can be mutually enforcing.
Fecha	24/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Rigideces Nominales en una Economía con un Amplio Sector Informal

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Fernando Jaramillo, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción	Coautor: Mónica Gómez, Universidad del Rosario.
Fecha	17/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Franz Hamann, Banco de la República
Descripción	Coautores: Rafael Hernández, Luisa Silva y Fernando Tenjo G., Banco de la República The recent financial crisis has renewed the interest of economists, both at the theoretical and empirical level, in developing a better understanding of credit and its mechanisms. A rapidly growing strand of the literature views banks as facing funding restrictions that condition their borrowing to a risk-based capital constraint which, in turn, affects bank lending. This work explores the way banks in Colombia manage their balance sheet and sheds light into the dynamics of credit and leverage during the business cycle. Using a sample of monthly bank balance sheets for the period 1994-2012, we find not only that the Colombian banking sector is predominantly pro-cyclical, but also that the composition of bank liabilities provides important information to policy makers regarding the phase of the cycle of the economy. Shifts from low non-core liability ratios to higher ones during the upward phase of the leverage cycle could play the role of an early warning indicator of financial vulnerability. In addition, we find that bank heterogeneity matters and thus, an aggregate measure of bank leverage can mask successfully a fragile financial sector.
Archivo
Fecha	12/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Commons Without Tragedy: Sampling Dynamics and Cooperative Resource Extraction

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan-Camilo Cárdenas, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: César Mantilla, Universidad de los Andes y Rajiv Sethi, Barnard College-Columbia University; Santa Fe Institute This paper reconsiders evidence from experimental common pool resource games from the perspective of a dynamic model of sampling. Despite being parameter-free, the model is able to replicate some striking features of the data: monotonic frequency distributions, the persistent use of strictly dominated actions, and stable heterogeneity in choices. We argue that these patterns cannot be fully accounted for by existing theories based on other-regarding preferences and norms, and that the dynamics of sampling provide a useful complementary explanation for behavior in social dilemmas.
Fecha	10/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Uso de diferentes criterios para predecir el desempeño académico de los estudiantes de la Universidad de los Andes

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	María Figueroa, Centro de Investigación y Formación en Educación-(CIFE), Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Carlos Rodríguez
Fecha	03/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "More than Friends? Using the geography of conflict to estimate the impact of foreign assistance to Colombian insurgents"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Conferencista: Luis R. Martínez, PhD Student, Department of Economics and STICERD, LSE
Descripción	Over 50% of all rebel groups since 1950 are believed to have had bases outside of their country of origin. In this paper I present a data-based method of identifying this form of foreign influence and I provide evidence that the ability to cross international borders leads to a large increase in the intensity of rebel activity. A long list of diplomatic incidents suggests that Colombian guerrilla groups may have been provided refuge in Venezuela during the administration of Hugo Chávez (1999-2013). Since this president could not have helped the rebels before his term started in 1999 and since guerrilla military technology is mainly short-range, I predict that the existence of rebel sanctuaries in Venezuela should be reflected in an increase in guerrilla activity near the border with this country after Chávez takes office. Using subnational data on the Colombian conflict for the period 1988-2008 I find that there is a large increase in FARC activity at the border with Venezuela after 1999, consistent with rebels being able to hide across the border. No robust change is observed in the intensity of activities of either guerrilla group ELN or paramilitary group AUC, suggesting active collaboration from the Venezuelan government as the more likely explanation for the change in FARC activity. Furthermore, I provide evidence against alternative explanations such as economic spillovers from Chávez's domestic policies, the paramilitary expansion of the late 1990s and the US military aid package known as ``Plan Colombia''. I also find that political conditions in Venezuela affect the location of rebels in the country.
Archivo
Fecha	27/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Innovaciones Sesgadas: Teoría y Aplicaciones

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Hernando Zuleta, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	La teoría de innovaciones sesgadas predice que la participación de los factores acumulables en el ingreso nacional es más alta en las economías donde dichos factores son más abundantes, esto es, las economías desarrolladas. La evidencia empírica disponible para las últimas décadas parece confirmar esta predicción. Sin embargo, teoría y resultados generan una serie de dudas que aún no han sido abordadas a cabalidad. En esta presentación se responden, desde un punto de vista teórico, dos preguntas relacionadas con la teoría de innovaciones sesgadas (i) Si la participación de cada factor está determinada por la elasticidad del ingreso con respecto al factor en cuestión entonces la unidad de medida de los factores juega un rol crucial en los ejercicios de contabilidad de crecimiento. ¿Es posible encontrar una unidad de medida “correcta”? (ii) Si la participación factorial depende del poder de negociación de los trabajadores uno de los supuestos básicos de la teoría de innovaciones sesgadas se rompe. ¿Qué tan diferente es la participación laboral que prefieren los trabajadores de la elasticidad del producto con respecto al trabajo?
Fecha	20/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Equilibria under Deferred Acceptance: Dropping Strategies, Filled Positions, and Welfare

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Çağatay Kayı, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción	Coautores: Paula Jaramillo (Universidad de los Andes) and Flip Klijn (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE) This paper studies many–to–one matching markets where each student is assigned to a hospital. Each hospital has possibly multiple positions and responsive preferences. We study the game induced by the student-optimal stable matching mechanism. We assume that students play their weakly dominant strategy of truth-telling. Roth and Sotomayor (1990) showed that there can be unstable equilibrium outcomes. We prove that any stable matching can be obtained in some equilibrium. We also show that the exhaustive class of dropping strategies does not necessarily generate the full set of equilibrium outcomes. Finally, we ﬁnd that the so-called ‘rural hospital theorem’ cannot be extended to the set of equilibrium outcomes and that welfare levels are in general unrelated to the set of stable matchings. Two important consequences are that, contrary to one–to–one matching markets, (a) ﬁlled positions depend on the particular equilibrium that is reached and (b) welfare levels are not bounded by the student and hospital-optimal stable matchings (with respect to the true preferences).
Fecha	13/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ “Calidad de Educación: 15 años de Evidencia Experimental en Países en Vías de Desarrollo“

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Assistant Professor of Education and Economics, Graduate School of Education-Harvard University
Descripción	Durante los últimos 15 años, varios países en vías de desarrollo han realizado programas novedosos en procura de una mejor calidad de educación. Varios de estos programas han sido objeto de evaluaciones rigurosas que buscan determinar qué factores causan una mayor y mejor educación. El objetivo de esta presentación es resumir esta evidencia reciente y proponer algunos programas que pueden ser benéficos para Colombia.
Fecha	08/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ UN interventions: Are there regional preferences?

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Michael Jetter, Department of Economics-Universidad EAFIT
Descripción	Coautores: Juan C. Duque y Santiago Sosa, Univesidad EAFIT What leads the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene in one conflict, but remain inactive in another? This paper analyzes all 221 documented conflicts since 1945, trying to unveil the characteristics associated with UN intervention. Including geographical aspects, we find that proximity to two the five permanent members of the UNSC has a significant and meaningful effect on the probability of intervention. For every 1,000 kilometers of distance from France or the United Kingdom the probability of intervention decreases by up to 73 percent. In general, UN interventions are significantly more likely in smaller, poorer, less democratic, and less open economies.
Archivo
Fecha	06/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Entorno Global y Situacion Macro-Financiera de Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Sergio Clavijo, ANIF
Descripción	Coautor: Nelson Vera, ANIF
Fecha	01/08/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Crime, Punishment and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Catherine Rodríguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Ana María Ibañez y David Zarruk This paper uses a natural policy experiment to estimate how changes in the costs of engaging in criminal activity may influence adolescents’ decisions in crime participation and school attendance. The study finds that, after an exogenous decrease in the severity of judicial punishment imposed on Colombian adolescents, crime rates in Colombian municipalities increased. This effect appears to be larger in municipalities with a higher proportion of adolescents between 14 and 15 years of age. The study provides suggestive evidence that one possible transmission channel for this effect is a decrease in the effort of the police force to capture teenage suspects. The study also finds that the probability that boys of this same age group attend school decreased following the change in the juvenile justice system. This effect is stronger for boys from homes where the heads of household are less educated.
Fecha	30/07/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Distributive Politics of Enforcement: Evidence from Street Vending in Urban Latin America

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alisha C. Holland, Government Department - Harvard University
Descripción	Why do some politicians tolerate the violation of the law? In contexts where the poor are the primary violators of property laws, I argue that the answer lies in the electoral costs of enforcement: enforcement can decrease support from poor voters even while it generates support among nonpoor voters. Using an original dataset on unlicensed street vending and enforcement operations at the subcity district level in three Latin American capital cities, I show that the combination of voter demographics and electoral rules explains enforcement patterns. Supported by qualitative interviews, these findings suggest how the intentional non-enforcement of law, or forbearance, can be an electoral strategy. Dominant theories based on state capacity poorly explain the results.
Archivo
Fecha	23/07/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Quadratic Vote Buying

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	E. Glen Weyl, Department of Economics-University of Chicago
Descripción	A group of individuals with access to transfers seeks to make a binary collective decision. All known mechanisms they might use are either are often inefficient (e.g. voting), subject to severe collusion problems (e.g. the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism) or require the planner being informed about the distribution of valuations (e.g. the Expected Externality mechanism). I propose a simple, budget-balanced mechanism inspired by the work of Hylland and Zeckhauser (1979). Individuals purchase votes with the cost of a marginal vote being linear in the number of votes purchased; thus the total cost of votes is quadratic in the number purchased. The revenues earned from that individual are then refunded to other individuals. When there are a large number of individuals, this Quadratic Vote Buying mechanism is efficient in any Bayesian equilibrium under symmetric independent private values and is usually nearly efficient even with aggregate uncertainty. Collusion by a small group or individuals' taking on (a small number of) multiple identities does not significantly reduce efficiency.
Archivo
Fecha	16/07/2013

+ Arbitrage Pricing in Noncompetitive Markets

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Carvajal, Western University
Descripción	Coautor: Marek Weretka, University of Wisconsin-Madison This paper gives a sufficient condition under which a non-competitive model separates the equilibrium outcomes from the details of the asset structure, and hence permits the pricing of non-traded derivatives by means of no-arbitrage conditions. We demonstrate that our sufficient condition holds in a number of standard models, including the models of monopoly, Cournot, and Stackleberg. In contrast, Nash equilibrium in the well-known model of strategic market games proposed by Lloyd Shapley and Martin Shubik does not allow for the pricing of non-traded derivatives, and we explain why this is the case.
Fecha	09/07/2013
Hora	11:30 am. a 1:00 pm.

+ High Powered Incentives with Weak Institutions: The case of the Colombian 'False Positives'

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	James Robinson, Harvard University
Descripción	Coautores: Daron Acemoglu - MIT, Leopoldo Fergusson - Universidad de los Andes y Juan F. Vargas - Universidad del Rosario. In a principal-agent model where legal institutions are weak a potential behavioral response to the introduction of high-powered incentives may be the use of illegal methods to achieve a goal. We test this hypothesis by examining the introduction of high-powered incentives in the Colombian army in 2005 designed to encourage soldiers to catch or kill members of guerrilla or paramilitary groups. We show that this measure led to a dramatic increase in killings of civilians who were presented as members of non-state armed groups (called 'false positives' by the Colombian media). The number of false positives increased differentially in municipalities with low levels of judicial efficiency and where military units were controlled by officers with high promotion incentives. The number of false positives fell after 2008 when the media began to publicize this behavior and the high-powered incentives were removed.
Fecha	02/07/2013
Hora	11:30 am a 1:00 pm

+ One Size Does Not Fit All: The Role of Vocational Ability on College Attendance and Labor Market Outcomes

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Sergio Urzúa, University of Maryland and NBER
Descripción	Coautor: María Prada, University of Maryland In this paper we study the role of a dimension of ability, vocational ability, that has received little attention by economists when analyzing schooling choices and labor market outcomes. We first describe this ability and then analyze its effect on schooling decisions and wages. To analyze its contribution, we estimate a Roy model with factor structure that deals with the endogeneity of schooling and also allows to differentiate tests scores from unobserved abilities. The results indicate that vocational ability has a positive reward on the labor market as all other dimensions of ability. But, in contrast with standard measures of ability, vocational ability reduces the probability of going to college. In particular, the results from the simulation indicate that one standard deviation increase in cognitive ability is associated with an increase of 18.5 percentage points in the probability of attending 4-year college and 0.8 percentage points for noncognitive ability, while the same increase in vocational ability reduces the probability in 8 percentage points. The returns to cognitive and noncognitive ability are considerably higher than the returns to vocational (9 and 4 percent respectively compared to 1.2 percent for vocational ability). However we find that for the highest decile of vocational ability the conditional mean of hourly wages is higher than the alternative, suggesting that for individuals with very high levels of vocational ability but low levels of standard ability (cognitive and noncognitive) not going to college is associated with the highest expected hourly wage.
Fecha	25/06/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Distribución de ingresos en el sistema pensional y el impacto de algunas medidas de flexibilización.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Santiago Montenegro Trujillo, Presidente-ASOFONDOS
Descripción	Coautores: Luis Felipe Jiménez Salazar, Sebastián Ramírez Baquero, Alejandro Nieto Ramos y Carlos Arturo Hurtado Martilletti Este estudio pretende estimar el porcentaje de los afiliados al sistema de capitalización individual que recibirían una pensión bajo los parámetros vigentes de los diferentes regímenes del sistema pensional colombiano, y así poder evaluar los parámetros de cada uno de los regímenes en términos de cobertura. Para esto, se proyectó la población del Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad (RAIS) hasta el momento de jubilación y teniendo en cuenta, por una parte los parámetros actuales del mismo y por otra los parámetros vigentes del Régimen de Prima Media (RPM); se evaluó el porcentaje de pensionados. Los resultados obtenidos revelan que la cobertura en el RAIS sería del 25%, cifra superior al 12% que se obtendría en el RPM. Adicionalmente, se evaluó el impacto sobre el número de individuos que acceden a un beneficio pensional al introducir modificaciones a los parámetros. Se evidenció que la flexibilización de los parámetros o la introducción de otros mecanismos de pensión generan un incremento en el número de pensionados.
Fecha	18/06/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Predestination and the Protestant Ethic

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alvaro Sandroni, Kellogg School of Business
Descripción	Coautor: Larbi Alaoui, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE This paper shows an equivalence result between the utility functions of secular agents who abide by a moral obligation to accumulate wealth and those of religious agents who believe that salvation is immutable and preordained by God. This result formalizes Weber's renowned thesis on the connection between the worldly asceticism of Protestants and the religious premises of Calvinism. Furthermore, ongoing economies are often modeled with preference relations such as \Keeping up with the Joneses" which are not associated with religion. Our results relate these secular economies of today and economies of the past shaped by religious ideas.
Archivo
Fecha	11/06/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Consecuencias Políticas y Sociales de la Represión de Estado: El Caso de Chile"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	María Angélica Bautista, PhD (C) Brown University.
Descripción	En este documento estudio el impacto a nivel individual de la represión por parte del estado para el caso de la dictadura militar Chilena (1973-1990) sobre comportamiento y participación en política. Durante 2012 realicé una encuesta en Chile en donde recolecté micro datos de personas que sufrieron represión y construí un grupo control con características socio-económicas muy similares pero que no experimentaron represión. Dado que hay un sesgo de selección muy claro en el caso de los reprimidos, utilizo diferentes modelos econométricos como diferencia en diferencias y propensity score matching, que intentan lidiar con este problema y así lograr comparar las variables dependientes de los reprimidos vs. los no reprimidos, antes y después de la dictadura. También estimo estos modelos con efectos fijos con el fin de demostrar la robustez de los resultados. Los siguientes son algunos de los hallazgos: Primero, hay una despolitización general de la sociedad pues para el 2012 las personas expresan mejor interés y participan menos en política con relación a 1973. Segundo, que no hay un cambio significativo de la postura ideológica (izquierda/derecha) de las personas. Tercero, que aunque los reprimidos son y fueron más activos políticamente y era más probable que fueran miembros de partidos políticos y sindicatos, como consecuencia de la represión su participación en estos grupos cayó con relación a los no reprimidos. Los reprimidos leen menos periódicos y por último, la participación en grupos de derechos humanos aumenta.
Fecha	04/06/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Modelo de protección para la vejez

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Mauricio Olivera, Viceministro de Empleo y Pensiones - Ministerio de Trabajo.
Fecha	28/05/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “¿Cómo se focalizó Más Familias en Acción y Jóvenes en Acción? Mecanismo y operación para llevar transferencias condicionadas a los más pobres”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Roberto Angulo, Director de Ingreso Social, Departamento para la Prosperidad Social.
Descripción	Durante el año 2011, el programa Familias en Acción entra en una etapa de revisión de su diseño y operación. Después de 10 años de implementación, se considera necesario rediseñar el programa. Este rediseñó implica una nueva focalización del programa para que llegue a la población más pobre y vulnerable del país y que además se ajuste al diagnóstico de pobreza del país. Así mismo, junto al rediseño, se crea el programa Jóvenes en Acción que busca apoyar a los jóvenes pobres y vulnerables para que continúen con su formación y desarrollo de competencias para el trabajo y que implica un nuevo proceso de focalización para definir la población beneficiaria y los municipios donde se va a implementar. Una vez finalizado el diseño de los programas, en 2012 se inicia el proceso de inscripciones y registro de Más Familias en Acción y Jóvenes en Acción. En esta operación se inscribieron más de 2.700.000 familias y se registraron alrededor de 190.000 jóvenes en todo el país. Todo esto ha estado acompañado de un proceso de bancarización de los beneficiarios de los programas para poder realizar los pagos de los programas. En esta presentación se busca explicar los mecanismos y la operación que logra llevar transferencias condicionadas a la población más pobres y vulnerable.
Archivo
Fecha	21/05/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Natural resources as spoilers in a conflict resolution scenario.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	David Monroy, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Diversos autores justifican la prolongación del conflicto con la presencia de recursos apropiables que puedan alimentar la lucha armada. Ante la señal de disolución de un primer grupo que controla recursos, un segundo grupo puede intentar tomar el territorio controlado por el primero. De esta forma se observa una intensificación del conflicto. Dependiendo del tipo de recursos sujetos a apropiación en el territorio del primer grupo, es posible entender cambios en las estrategias por parte del segundo grupo. Este trabajo analiza esto con las desmovilizaciones masivas de los paramilitares. Se estudia la reacción de las FARC ante este evento y sus posibles motivantes. Se utilizan como recursos apropiables la producción de oro, y la producción de hoja de coca.
Fecha	16/05/2013
Hora	12.30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Collective Land Titling and the Wellbeing of Afro Colombian Communities

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Ximena Peña, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: María Alejandra Vélez, Natalia Perdomo y Juan Camilo Cárdenas. In the developing world, collective land titling has become an important tool for recognizing the historical presence of ethnic communities and safeguarding their rights to occupy and manage their territories. However, despite the historic importance of this property rights regime, little is known about the net impact of these titling processes on the wellbeing of these communities. In this paper we attempt to estimate such impact for the process of collective land titling of territories inhabited by afro-descendent communities in Colombia. This titling process, including more than five million hectares of land benefitting more than 62.000 families, began after the writing of the 1991 Colombian Constitution and was formalized with the enactment of Law 70 in 1993. Evaluating the impact of such policies involves statistical challenges. It can be the case that communities who had higher levels of social and human capital received their formal title by the government first and have had a longer time to transform the titling into improvements in their basic socio-economic indicators. Using a Propensity Score Matching technique that allows us to control for the selection bias at the community level, we are able to estimate that the collective titling process has increased the per capita income by 18.8%. It has also increased the level of schooling of the very young (0-4 yrs old child care) with an increase between 4.1% in formal attendance, although the impacts on education attendance for older children seems inconclusive. Further, the program has had a significant reduction in health services access of 4,9%. This is the first evaluation aiming to understand the net impact of the collective titling processes in the wellbeing of Afro Colombian Communities. Our results suggest important policy lessons for the continuing and improvement of these land titling programs.
Fecha	14/05/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Curva de Rendimientos, Riesgo de Default y Actividad Económica

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Jaime Rodríguez, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Resumen 1 Se presenta evidencia empírica de la estructura a plazos como indicador líder de la actividad económica en países desarrollados y emergentes. Los resultados sugieren que el poder predictivo de la curva de rendimientos tiende a diluirse al bajar en la escala de desarrollo de los países. Se muestra que al descomponer el spread en el efecto de expectativas y la prima de plazos (term premia), el riesgo inmerso en la prima de plazos disminuye el poder predictivo para todos los países de la muestra, salvo para Estados Unidos. Estos resultados sugieren que el riesgo soberano puede jugar un papel importante en la pérdida del carácter predictivo de la estructura a plazos. Resumen 2 Se presenta un modelo cuantitativo de deuda de una economía pequeña y abierta con probabilidad endógena de default. El modelo es calibrado para la economía Argentina permite simular el comportamiento de la curva de rendimientos y su relación con la actividad económica futura. En particular las simulaciones muestran inversión de la curva de rendimientos y el hecho de que la curva de rendimientos sea un indicador líder de la economía Argentina. Se demuestra que al considerar inversionistas neutrales al riesgo no es posible obtener inversión de la curva de rendimientos y que durante tiempos tranquilos las tasas de interés de largo plazo deben ser mayores que las de largo plazo, tal y como lo muestran los datos.
Fecha	09/05/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Does the Unemployment Benefit Institution affect Workers' Productivity? Evidence from a Field Experiment.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Mariana Blanco, Facultad de Economía - Universidad del Rosario
Descripción	Coautor: Patricio Dalton, Tilburg University We present evidence on whether and how the type of unemployment benefit institution affects productivity. We compare workers' productivity under a welfare system, where the unemployed receive an unconditional monetary transfer, with their productivity under a workfare system, where the transfer is received conditional on the unemployed spending some time on ancillary activities. We find that the productivity of the average worker is substantially higher under Welfare than Workfare. The main reason for this is that the disutility of being idle under Welfare is larger than cost of the effort they have to exert under Workfare. Being idle while unemployed comes at a psychological cost (including a drop in self-esteem), which workers want to avoid by putting higher effort and, hence, being more productive at work.
Fecha	07/05/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Using Stochastic Frontier Models To Mitigate Omitted Variable Bias in Hedonic Pricing Models: A Case Study for Air Quality in Bogotá, Colombia.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Fernando Carriazo, Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes.
Descripción	Coautores: Richard Ready, Penn State y James Shortle, Penn State. Hedonic pricing models use property value differentials to value changes in environmental quality. If unmeasured quality attributes of residential properties are correlated with an environmental quality measure of interest, conventional methods for estimating implicit prices will be biased. Because many unmeasured quality measures tend to be asymmetrically distributed across properties, it may be possible to mitigate this bias by estimating a heteroskedastic frontier regression model. This approach is demonstrated for a hedonic price function that values air quality in Bogotá, Colombia.
Fecha	30/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Impacto del crédito educativo para la educación superior en el acceso, deserción y desempeño académico: Evidencia para Colombia a través de un análisis de regresión discontinua

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Fabio Sánchez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Tatiana Melguizo, School of Education - University of Southern California, Juliana Márquez, CEDE- Universidad de Los Andes. El objetivo de la investigación es determinar el efecto del crédito ACCES dirigido a los estudiantes universitarios de los estratos 1 y 2 en el acceso a la educación superior, en la deserción y en el desempeño académico. Utilizando información del sistema de información de educación superior para el universo de los potenciales beneficiarios se encuentran efectos significativos y de magnitud importante en las tres variables mencionadas. En este sentido, el crédito educativo no solamente contribuye a aumentar la equidad en el acceso a la educación universitaria sino que mejora el logro académico de los estudiantes beneficiarios del crédito. Dada las condiciones que regulan el ser beneficiario del crédito es posible la utilización de técnicas de regresión discontinúa para el análisis de su impacto.
Fecha	25/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ More Schooling and More Learning? Effects of a 3-Year Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Nicaragua after 10 Years

Lugar	ML-512
A cargo	Karen Macours, Paris School of Economics
Descripción	Coautores: Tania Barham and John Maluccio This paper estimates the long-term effects of a CCT program in Nicaragua on educational attainment and learning for boys. Taking advantage of the randomized phase-in, and measuring learning outcomes 10 years after the start of the program, we find program effects on completed education and language and math achievement. We focus on specific age groups that, due to the programs eligibility criteria and school dropout patterns, were likely to have benefitted more in the group of localities that were randomly selected to receive the program first. This allows us to show that the increase in the number of years of education is accompanied by gains in learning. Using the same approach we also establish long term labor market gains.
Fecha	22/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Integración comercial y cambio estructural en Colombia (1986-2006)

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alexis Munari, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	En función del proceso mundial de globalización, desde los años ochenta, el comercio exterior ha representado una porción creciente del PIB en Colombia. Esta integración comercial estuvo acompañada de una mayor exposición de la economía colombiana a la competencia internacional. La literatura documentó como la liberalización comercial inició un proceso de racionalización de las firmas en el sector manufacturero que contribuyó a incrementar su productividad. Sin embargo, una integración comercial creciente puede afectar la productividad agregada por otro canal: el del cambio estructural - definido como los desplazamientos de la fuerza laboral entre sectores de actividad. Este trabajo busca estudiar este canal con base en la encuesta de hogares entre 1986 y 2006. Recurriendo a un análisis microeconométrico, se evidencian, en una primera etapa, un efecto de la apertura sobre el cambio estructural, en particular para los flujos de trabajadores entre el sector manufacturero y el sector de comercio, restaurantes y hoteles, y la existencia de efectos heterogéneos de la educación sobre la relación entre integración comercial y cambio estructural. En una segunda etapa, se incluye en el análisis el fenómeno de la informalidad para que el concepto de cambio estructural esté mejor relacionado con la productividad agregada.
Fecha	18/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Effect of Transport Policies on Car Use: Theory and Evidence from Latin American Cities

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan-Pablo Montero, Department of Economics-Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (PUC-Chile)
Descripción	Coautores: Francisco Gallego and Christian Salas In an effort to reduce air pollution and congestion, Latin American cities have experimented with different policies to persuade drivers to give up their cars in favor of public transport. This paper looks at two of such policies: the driving restriction program introduced in Mexico-City in November of 1989 –Hoy-No-Circula (HNC)– and the public transport reform carried out in Santiago in February of 2007–Transantiago (TS). Based on hourly concentration records of carbon monoxide, which comes primarily from vehicles exhaust, we find that household responses to both HNC and TS have been ultimately unfortunate –more cars on the road and higher pollution levels– but also remarkably similar in how fast households have adjusted their stock of vehicles, within a year. Another empirical finding is how different short- and long-run effects of the policies can be. In fact, we find that a (permanent) driving restriction like HNC can still be effective in the short-run, say, for a month or two. We also document significant heterogeneity of the effects of the policy across the city. For the case of TS we complement these results with additional evidence coming from gasoline sales, sales of used and new cars, traffic flows, and the price of taxi medallions. A novel theoretical model is also developed to explain the empirical results and to compute policy costs based on few observables.
Archivo
Fecha	16/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ On Risk Adjustment in Competitive Health Insurance Markets: The Colombian Case

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas (UNIANDES and Quantil)
Descripción	with the collaboration of Eduardo Alfonso (World Bank Consultant), Mauricio Romero (UC San Diego), Sergio Camelo (UNIANDES and Quantil) We address the design of two main components of a sound compensating mechanism in competitive health insurance markets: Prospective and Ex-post Risk Adjustment. We introduce standard state of the art risk adjusters to Colombian social health insurance capitation formula. These are disability, chronic diseases group classification systems and diagnostic related groups (DRGs). By doing so, we show how to substantially improve the predictability of per capita health expenditures relative to Colombia’s current formula and at par with best international academic practices. This provides insights on how to ex-ante reduce risk selection incentives while at the same time keeping up with efficiency incentives of health insurers. This is a step forward for Colombian prospective risk adjustment mechanism. As a byproduct of these risk groups based on medical conditions, we further provide two applications relevant for the system: a data mining methodology to alert of atypical items in Colombian health insurance data bases and a crude estimate, based on a discrete choice model, on how much would it cost to introduce a health plan that guarantees access to most medical technologies and services as has been recently suggested in the current reform (POS and No POS services). Finally, we point out a few financial pitfalls of Colombian ex-post adjustment mechanism implemented in the Cuenta de Alto Cost. Colombia’s health insurance data base (base de suficiencia), on which we rely on, is a unique and rich data set on which to test and put to work many economic ideas from the academic health economics literature.
Fecha	09/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Aprendizaje Adaptativo y Expectativas de Inflación

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Luis Edgar Basto, Estudiante Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Esta disertación investiga propiedades de modelos macroeconómicos que analizan la dinámica inflacionaria bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo. En el primer paper, se presenta el problema de seleccionar un Equilibrio de Expectativas Racionales (REE) cuando a un Modelo Neokeynesiano se le incluye inercia inflacionaria, donde no siempre se puede aplicar el criterio de selección de Estabilidad de Expectativas (E-S) de Evans (1985). Y luego se propone una metodología de dos etapas, Aprendizaje de los Residuales, donde los agentes actúan como econometristas que analizan los residuales resultantes de sus modelos de pronóstico para extraer información de la inercia inflacionaria. Con esta metodología se obtienen condiciones de E-S que en general sí permiten seleccionar un REE y que son robustas a varias modificaciones del modelo. El segundo paper, parte del hecho que la literatura de Aprendizaje Adaptativo asume que los agentes se forman una idea del REE, asociado a una Ley de Movimiento (LoM) desconocida por los agentes. Si por alguna razón los agentes omiten alguna de las variables de tal equilibrio, entonces Evans and Honkapohja (2001) muestran que su aprendizaje ya no converge a ese REE sino a un Equilibrio Restringido de Percepciones (RPE). Con base en esos resultados, en este paper se muestra un caso diferente, donde tal RPE también puede ocurrir cuando los agentes hacen una mala especificación de una LoM que no es completamente estructural ni reducida: esto surge en un Modelo de Economía Abierta cuando se cumple la paridad de intereses y el Banco Central (BC) sigue una regla tipo Taylor. Lo anterior implica que al hacer un análisis empírico de este tipo de modelos, debe emplearse la LoM estructural y no la reducida, ya que no se llegaría al REE sino a un RPE. En el tercer paper, se parte de un resultado bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo: este implica que los agentes estiman por OLS un modelo mal especificado, ya que no tienen en cuenta que sus expectativas sobre la variable endógena la afectan a ella misma, es decir, desconocen la LoM pero conocen la forma funcional del REE. Sin embargo, tal error de especificación se desvanece en el tiempo (Evans and Honkapohja, 2001). Con base en este resultado, este paper analiza si el aprendizaje de los agentes mejora al usar mínimos cuadrados no lineales (NLS), donde puede corregirse tal error. Para ello, se basa en el modelo de Muto (2011) quien muestra que si los agentes privados aprenden de los pronósticos del BC, las condiciones de E-S son más fuertes que las requeridas en el caso donde cada uno se forma expectativas independientemente, (Bullard and Mitra, 2002). El principal resultado es que si los agentes aprenden de los pronósticos de un BC que usa NLS, entonces las condiciones de E-S son más débiles en general con respecto a las obtenidas por Muto (2011).
Fecha	04/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Costos del Dengue en Colombia (2010-2012)

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Raúl Castro R., Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes.
Descripción	El trabajo presenta la estimación de los costos asociados al dengue (tratamiento, ingresos dejados de percibir por muerte prematura, pérdida de productividad y prevención, promoción, control y vigilancia); así como la estimación de costos con modelos alternativos de preferencias reveladas y declaradas en Colombia para los años 2010-2012. En un período no epidémico (2011), se encontraron 3.990 años de vida perdidos ajustados por discapacidad, mientras que en el año 2010, (seleccionado como el período epidémico) se presentaron 56.815 DALYs. De manera general, se tiene que el costo total del dengue en Colombia para 2010 alcanzó los US$168,16 millones, lo cual representa un 24.8% adicional al 2011 (US$134,71 millones), mientras que en el 2012 (hasta la semana epidemiológica 27) se podía asociar un costo de US$118,71 millones; lo cual representó para 2011, el 0,038% del PIB. AUTORES: Raúl Castro R., Director e Investigador Leonardo García O., Coordinador estudio de campo Juan Carlos Mendieta L., Investigador Katia Galera G., Investigador Jorge Armando Rueda G., Asistente de investigación
Fecha	02/04/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Young businesses, entrepreneurship, and the dynamics of employment and output in Colombia’s manufacturing industry.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marcela Eslava, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland. There is ongoing debate about the role of entrepreneurship in productivity and job growth. One view is that entrepreneurs are the engines of jobs, innovation and productivity growth. From this view, countries with high barriers to entry and barriers to post-entry growth dynamics will fare poorly. An alternative view is that most young and small businesses exist either because the entrepreneur could not find a wage and salary job and/or represent the choice of individuals who would rather work for themselves (typically at home). From this view, the problem many countries face, especially in the developing world, is not too little entrepreneurship but too much – at least too many of the “subsistence” entrepreneurs who have little prospects for growth. This paper contributes to this debate with an analysis of manufacturing startups and their expansion patterns, relative to those of established businesses, in a developing economy: Colombia. Many of the obstacles to efficient entry into the market and to efficient growth are most pronounced in developing countries, and many of the questions about fostering entrepreneurship are most relevant for these countries. We use data from the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey, characterizing plant performance and age of Colombian manufacturing establishments with employees, over the period 1993-2009. We characterize, over the life cycle of businesses, a plant’s performance and its contribution to overall growth, over a number of dimensions: employment, output, investment, productivity. For employment growth, we produce comparable statistics for the US to drive conclusions about differential patterns between the two countries. We also look at cross age-size patterns. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The average young establishment grows much faster and is more productive than the typical old one (e.g. an mean growth rate of employment of 38% for a plant aged 0-4 years, compared to an average 2% contraction for establishments aged 15 years or more); 2) Even abstracting from the contribution of entry, young incumbent plants grow substantially faster than older plants. These differences are driven by the upper tail of the growth rate distribution (at the 90% percentile); 3) While young plants grow on average faster, in any age category growth rates are positively correlated with plant size; 4) Among large (200 employees or more) relatively young establishments (4 or five years old) around 40% were small or medium sized four years before; the proportion of large establishments accounted for by small or medium establishments four years before falls to around 15% for establishments aged fifteen years or more. 5) Despite smaller establishments growing at a slower pace within an age category, young small establishments also explain the bulk of growth over our sample period. Cohorts born before 1980 have contracted substantially by 2009.
Fecha	19/03/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Informe de la Comisión de Infraestructura: diagnóstico y recomendaciones"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Guillermo Perry, Universidad de los Andes y Roberto Steiner, Fedesarrollo.
Descripción	En Colombia, no obstante algunas reformas recientes, la institucionalidad en la infraestructura de transporte sigue siendo precaria y ello se refleja en los resultados en esta materia. La administración del Presidente Santos convocó a un grupo de colombianos de diversas especialidades para que analizaran y debatieran el tema y le ofrecieran recomendaciones que contribuyeran a solucionar el notorio atraso que el país presenta en infraestructura de transporte. En esta presentación, se comparte el diagnóstico y recomendaciones de la Comisión.
Archivo
Fecha	14/03/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Relative Quality of Foreign Nurses in the United States"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Patricia Cortes, Boston University
Descripción	In recent years, the US has become increasingly reliant on foreign registered nurses to satisfy health care demands. The Philippines has emerged as the single largest source of nurses educated abroad, representing more than half of foreign nurses entering the US in the last decade. One of the main concerns raised by the importation of nurses is the quality of care that they provide. This paper addresses this question by analyzing the relative quality of foreign educated nurses and its evolution over time using Census data from 1980 to 2010 and wages as a measure of skill. We find a positive wage premium for nurses educated in the Philippines, but not for foreign nurses educated elsewhere. This premium cannot be explained by differences in demographics, education, work experience, location, or detailed job characteristics. The assimilation profile of Filipino nurses and the types of hospitals that hire them strongly suggest that the premium re‡flects quality differences and not just unobserved characteristics of the job that carry a higher wage but are unrelated to skill. We provide evidence that the wage premium is likely to be driven by strong positive selection into nursing among Filipinos resulting from the high and heterogeneous returns to the occupation generated by active government support for the migration of nurses in the Philippines. Coautora: Jessica Pan, National University of Singapore
Archivo
Fecha	12/03/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Agricultural Production amidst Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Ana María Ibáñez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small-farmers. We use a unique household survey applied to 4.800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. The survey collects detailed information on households’ economic conditions, incidence of violent shocks, and presence of non-state armed actors. We separate the effects of conflict on direct impacts, measured through conflict-induced shocks, and indirect impacts, measured through years of presence of non-state armed actors. The results show the association between lower agricultural production and conflict transmits through different channels. In regions with an intense conflict investments are lower and households concentrate production on seasonal crops and pasture. On the other hand, presence of non-state armed actors is associated with a nonlinear effect on investment where more uncertainty increases investment for self-insurance motives. We rationalize these results with an intertemporal model where farmers are uncertain on whether conflict-induced shocks are permanent or transitory, and update beliefs when these are realized. Although traditional reconstruction efforts are crucial, post-conflict policies should also aim to reduce uncertainty and improve the rule of law to foster increases in production. Coautores: Andres Zambrano y Maria Alejandra Arias, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes.
Fecha	05/03/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ ¿Cómo poner a Colombia en la senda de crecimiento acelerado?

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan Mauricio Ramírez, Subdirector de Fedesarrollo
Descripción	En los últimos diez años Colombia ha tenido transformaciones fundamentales que se sintetizan en su paso de la lista de "Estados Fallidos" (Failed States) a una economía emergente promisoria, que ha alcanzado el umbral de los US$10 mil dólares de PIB per cápita (en PPP), ha aumentado la tasa de inversión como proporción del PIB a una de las más altas de América Latina, ha duplicado el peso relativo de las clases medias y ha reducido la pobreza de cerca del 50% a 33% de la población. Algunos análisis como el del BBVA-EAGLEs (2012) pronostican que en los próximos diez años Colombia generará un PIB de US$ 322 mil millones, cercano al que generará Francia (US$ 340 mil millones), gracias a un crecimiento anual del PIB de 5.4% (en PPP). De cristalizarse estos pronósticos, las clases medias en Colombia llegarían a más del 50% de la población. De otro lado, la literatura reciente ha caracterizado la llamada “trampa de ingresos medios” (middle income trap) en la cual aparentemente se encuentran diversas economías de ingresos medios altos luego de haber experimentado períodos de crecimiento acelerado (Agénor, Canuto and Jelenic 2012; Eichengreen, Park, y Shin 2013). ¿Cuáles son las posibilidades de que Colombia logre un ingreso per cápita de US$15 mil (PPP) en 2022 y avance de manera sostenida hacia el desarrollo? ¿Cuál es la agenda de políticas prioritaria para plasmar estas posibilidades y evitar la “trampa de ingresos medios”?
Fecha	28/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Tributación y construcción del Estado en Colombia: los casos de Antioquia y Cauca, 1856-1899

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Ricardo Kerguelén; Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Durante el período federal, 1858-1885, la capacidad de los estados colombianos para controlar sus territorios, proveer seguridad a sus habitantes y garantizar derechos de propiedad y contratos fue limitada. Frecuentes insurrecciones limitaron aún más su capacidad para promover la creación de instituciones, la formación de capital físico y humano o promover el desarrollo económico. Cuando fueron creados, 1855-1861, estas unidades contaban con muy pocas de las que podríamos considerar como instituciones estatales, de tal manera que una de sus primeras tareas fue desarrollar una infraestructura para calcular y recaudar impuestos. En este trabajo, exploro la evolución de la capacidad impositiva de los Estados de Antioquia y Cauca desde su fundación en 1856 y 1857 respectivamente hasta 1899. La información fue recolectada de los informes producidos por sus respectivos gobiernos en archivos en Bogotá, Medellín y Popayán. Aunque ambos estados obtenían sus ingresos a partir de impuestos indirectos, monopolios y licencias, los ingresos tributarios de Antioquia, tanto en términos absolutos como per cápita, fueron consistentemente superiores a los de Cauca. Estas diferencias se debieron no solo al mayor dinamismo económico en Antioquia sino al creciente control del gobierno de ese estado sobre su territorio. En Cauca, la debilidad del gobierno del estado y sus conflictos internos retrasaron la unificación de su sistema tributario. En ambos casos, la dependencia en los impuestos al comercio inter-estatal, llevó a imponer barreras al comercio, dificultando la consolidación del mercado interno colombiano.
Fecha	26/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ To Share Is To Keep: Politicians, Property Rights and Firm Ownership in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Rafael J. Santos, Yale University
Descripción	Institutions that fail to protect citizens against expropriation from the government hinder investment and economic development. How do economic agents counteract these institutions? I propose a theory of companies establishing connections with politicians as a mechanism to protect property rights and increase investment. I build a model in which N companies face a sector-level threat of expropriation. As a response to that threat, the owner of each company non-cooperatively decides what fraction of her shares to transfer to a politician who is pivotal in the expropriation decisions of the government. The model predicts that an exogenous shift in the share transfers of company i increases that company's investment by reducing the sector-level risk of expropriation. This, in turn, generates a sector-level positive externality which indirectly increases investment of other companies in company's i sector. The predictions of the model are examined using new panel data for South Africa between 1971 and 2003 for 123 listed companies. After Apartheid, a leftist party, which historically promoted the nationalization of the mines and banks of the country, came to power and increased the political insecurity of white-owned firms. At the same time, the first instances of Black Economic Empowerment occurred, whereby white firms transferred shares to black people at preferential terms. I examine the effects of BEE transactions on investment to test the model that I developed above. After showing that most BEE transactions went to companies directed by black politicians, I use an interaction between a post-Apartheid dummy and the size of the second largest shareholder as an instrument for BEE transactions. This instrument satisfies the exclusion restriction in the economic model outlined above and it is relevant because the owner of the company weighs the property rights benefit of transferring part of her shares to politicians with the cost of ceding power to the second shareholder; the larger the latter, the less the shares transfers to politicians. I first confirm that the size of the second largest shareholder has a large negative effect on BEE transactions. I then show that an increase in BEE transactions both at the company level and at the sector level increases long-term investments and that these effects are only relevant for companies in the mining and financial sectors. Finally, I show that firms which engaged in more BEE transactions up to 2003 are more likely to have ANC Ministers and Members of Parliament as shareholders in 2006, but again this relationship is only relevant for firms in the mining and financial sector.
Archivo
Fecha	19/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Financial Development and International Trade

Lugar	SD-704
A cargo	Fernando Leibovici, New York University
Descripción	This paper studies the extent to which frictions in financial markets affect aggregate trade flows. I study a model of firm dynamics with financial frictions and international trade, calibrated to match key features of firm-level data. I find that, while financial frictions have a large effect on the pattern and extent of international trade at the industry-level, as documented in the literature, they have a small effect on trade at the aggregate-level. Relaxing the financial constraints allows more firms to finance the upfront export entry costs, with a significant impact on industry-level trade flows to the extent that the industry is small enough to affect equilibrium prices. In contrast, removing the financial constraints at the aggregate-level leads to an increase in the wage and interest rate, thereby reducing the returns to becoming an exporter, with a small impact on aggregate trade flows. I also find that the cross-industry response of international trade to financial development is quantitatively consistent with industry-level evidence on the extent of trade across countries, and that the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing trade by easing the access to credit for exporters is limited if implemented at an economy-wide scale.
Archivo
Fecha	15/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Optimal Taxation in a Life-Cycle Economy with Endogenous Human Capital Formation

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Julian Neira, U.C. Santa Barbara
Descripción	We study efficient allocations and optimal policies in a Mirrleesean life-cycle economy with risky human capital accumulation and permanent ability differences. We assume that ability, labor supply, learning effort and returns to human capital are all private information of the agents. We show that the \no distortion at the top" result from the Mirrleesean literature may not apply if discouraging labor supply increases incentives to invest in human capital. We also show that, under certain conditions, the inverse of the intratemporal wedge follows a random walk, implying that the average intratemporal wedge increases over time. This result is, to our knowledge, novel. We calibrate a two-period economy and find several notable results. First, to elicit learning effort, it is efficient to make the consumption process risky for high-ability agents while insuring low-ability agents. Second, high-ability agents face the largest expected increase in the intratemporal wedge. Third, high-ability agents face a higher intertemporal wedge. These normative prescriptions differ signicantly from the existing literature that abstracts from human capital. We also find large welfare gains for the U.S. from switching to an optimal tax system.
Archivo
Fecha	14/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Monitoring Synchronization of Regional Recessions: A Markov-Switching Network Approach

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Danilo Leiva-Leon, University of Alicante
Descripción	This paper develops a new framework for monitoring changes in the degree of synchronization between many stochastic processes subject to regime changes. In the proposed methodology the estimated time-varying dependence relations among the hidden Markov processes governing the system can be interpreted as a dynamicweighted network. Bayesian estimates of an empirical application to the synchronization of business cycle phases in U.S. states suggest that national recessions can be anticipated by an index that accounts for the global synchronization between states, confirming its predictive ability with real-time exercises. Moreover, the way in which an upcoming national recession could simultaneously affect each of its smaller economies at the state level can be dynamically evaluated.
Archivo
Fecha	12/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Informal Self-Employment and Business Cycle Persistence: Does the Composition of Employment Matter for Economic Recoveries?

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, University of Maryland.
Descripción	Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries. Recent studies document that self-employment expands during downturns, a fact that arises from higher transition rates out of unemployment and into self-employment in recessions. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower output persistence over the business cycle. In this paper, I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or employed in salaried firms. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster recoveries following a negative economy-wide productivity shock. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers play a key role in explaining contrasting labor market and output dynamics. The model successfully captures some of the key cyclical patterns of self-employment, as well as the quantitative relationship between self-employment and cyclical output persistence in the data.
Archivo
Fecha	07/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Endogenous Employment and Incomplete Markets

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Zambrano, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	This paper explores the role of effort and human capital as mechanisms to alleviate the idiosyncratic risk faced by individuals in the presence of incomplete markets. I construct a DSGE model where effort and human capital determine the probability of being employed the next period. While effort is a flow variable that has to be exerted every period, human capital is a stock variable chosen when the agent is born. I first show how effort and assets are inverse related, and then characterize the investment in education as a function of its cost. In the stationary equilibrium individuals diversify between market and non- market mechanisms to reduce risk. As a result, in the long run, the median individual will hold a negative credit balance, which better approximates the real wealth distribution when compared with previous studies. The results shed light on the potential implication of combining policies of unemployment insurance and subsidies to education to improve the wealth distribution.
Archivo
Fecha	05/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Optimal Regulation of the Media Industry

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Gustavo Torrens, Washington University in St. Louis
Descripción	This paper studies how a society should optimally organize and regulate its media industry. First, a political economy model of the media industry is developed. Second, a constitutional stage is considered and the optimal regulation of the industry is deduced. A simple but powerful normative message is derived from this analysis. The media should not be treated as a standard industry. Even if it operates under increasing returns to scale, this is not enough to conclude that the best solution is a media monopoly. Unless media productivity is extremely low, the optimal regulation is either to encourage entry with subsidies or to impose moderate entry limitations. It is worthwhile to pay the extra costs associated with several media companies obtaining and reporting the same news because competition avoids media capture and the corresponding dissipation of resources in the political system.
Archivo
Fecha	31/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Uncertain altruism and the provision of long term care

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Pierre Pestieau, CREPP, University of Liège and CORE
Descripción	Coautores: Helmuth Cremer, Toulouse School of Economics y Firouz Gahvari, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign This paper studies the role of private and public long term insurance programs in a world in which family assistance is uncertain. Benefits are paid in case of disability but cannot be conditioned (directly), due to moral hazard problems, on family aid. Under a topping up scheme, when the probability of altruism is high, there is no need for insurance. At lower probabilities, insurance is required, thought not full insurance. This can be provided either privately or publicly if insurance premiums are fair, and publicly otherwise. Moreover, the amount of LTC insurance varies negatively with the probability of altruism. With an opting out scheme, if the degree of altruism is high, the optimal policy is to provide parents with full LTC insurance with altruistic children helping their parents. Otherwise, there can be two types of equilibrium. In one, there is full LTC insurance but with no assistance from children. In the other, the LTC insurance is less than full and just low enough to induce altruistic children to help. When the equilibrium entails assistance from altruistic children, no private insurance is used even if private insurance markets are fair. If the equilibrium is one without aid from children, public insurance no longer dominates private insurance if the latter is fair.
Fecha	29/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Curse of Low Aspirations: Remedial Education and Perceived Returns to Education of Roma People

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marianna Battaglia, Bocconi University
Descripción	Coautor: Lara Lebedinski, Bocconi University We examine how a remedial education program for primary school-age children A effects parental aspirations about their children's future. Using original survey data we collected in Serbia, we investigate whether expectations on labor market perspectives and educational achievement change as a consequence of exposure to the Roma Teaching Assistant Program. We argue that these changes are likely to occur mainly through a role model mechanism: in the program all the assistants are Roma and from the same social background of the pupils they help. The presence of a person belonging to the same community, who proved to be successful, motivates parents to believe their children can succeed. Our results show that parents of pupils in treated schools expect higher returns to education for their kids. They are also more likely to expect them to achieve a secondary level of education.
Archivo
Fecha	24/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Comparative Advantage and Risk Premia in Labor Markets

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	German Cubas, Central Bank of Uruguay and FCS-University of Republic
Descripción	Coautor: Pedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) we estimate quarterly labor earnings risk across 21 industries of the US economy. We document a significant and positive association between earnings risk (both permanent and transitory) and average log-earnings across industries. The Finance sector is 50% riskier than Government which implies a mean earnings premium of 20%. We develop an equilibrium framework to analyze the interplay between volatility in labor earnings and comparative advantage in determining the level of earnings across industries. We use the model to decompose how much of the empirical correlation represents compensation for risk and how much represents selection. The positive association between permanent risk and earnings is compensation for risk, but selection is responsible for the observed relationship between temporary risk and mean earnings.
Archivo
Fecha	22/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Can Walmart make us healthier? The effect of market forces on health care utilization

Lugar	SD-702
A cargo	Florencia Borrescio Higa, Brown University
Descripción	This paper analyzes how market forces in the retail market for pharmaceuticals affect utilization of health care. Specifically, I study the impact of Walmart’s $4 Prescription Drug Program on utilization of blood pressure medication and hospitalizations for conditions amenable to drug therapy for the state of Florida. The empirical strategy relies on the change in the availability of cheap generic drugs introduced by the launch of Walmart’s program in 2006, exploiting differences in the distance to the nearest Walmart store across ZIP codes in a difference-in-differences framework. I find that living close to a source of cheap generic drugs increases adherence to antihypertensive medications by 16 percent and decreases the probability of an avoidable hospitalization by 6.5 percent, saving over $50.5 million annually in inpatient costs. These findings shed some light on the potential of market forces to have a significant impact on utilization and overall costs in the health care system.
Archivo
Fecha	18/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Migration and Long-run Economic Development: Evidence from Settlements in the Pampas

Lugar	SD-702
A cargo	Federico Droller, Brown University
Descripción	This paper analyzes the impact of migration on long-run economic development. In particular, I study the European migration to Argentina in the late nineteenth century. I use an instrumental variables approach to show that the historical population composition caused differences in current economic outcomes. The IV randomly assigns immigrants across counties by interacting two sources of exogenous variation: the availability of land for settlement and the arrival of Europeans over time. Areas with historically higher shares of European population currently have significantly higher per-capita GDP, higher education rates and a greater proportion of skilled workers. Moreover, I present results which suggest that industrialization and human capital were channels through which migration had long-run effects: counties with higher share of Europeans experienced more advanced levels of industrialization and higher literacy rates.
Archivo
Fecha	17/01/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Terms of Trade in Small Open Economies: The Role of Monopolistic output Markets

Lugar	W-101
A cargo	Luis-Gonzalo Llosa, Ph.D. (c) UCLA
Descripción	This paper revisits the role of terms of trade using a small open economy (SOE) model in which imports are inputs in production, output markets are imperfectly competitive and firms are connected in an input-output network. Otherwise, the model nests the standard SOE model commonly used in quantitative macro. Using this framework, this paper delivers the following results: (i) terms of trade shocks affect TFP in the same way as in the data, (ii) terms of trade shocks increase the volatility of consumption relative to that of output, and (iii) input-output linkages amplify the influence of terms of trade on the real economy. The model is calibrated to Mexico. Numerical experiments show that terms of trade shocks alone account for about half of observed TFP volatility and approximately 45 percent of the observed output volatility. With respect to the excess volatility of consumption, terms of trade shocks imply a volatility of consumption that is 54 percent larger than the volatility of output. Plugging productivity and terms of trade shocks into the model generates a consumption volatility that is 5 percent more than that of output, close to the actual ratio of volatilities in the data.
Archivo
Fecha	13/12/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Lavado de Activos en Zonas Rurales?: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia.

Lugar	W-101
A cargo	Hernando Bayona Rodríguez, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes.
Descripción	Gran cantidad de estudios han mostrado que el lavado de activos tiene efectos negativos sobre la economía. La principal herramienta del sistema anti lavado de activos (ALA) y contra la financiación del terrorismo (CFT) son los Reportes de Operaciones Sospechosas (ROS), los cuales son enviados por las entidades reportantes a la Unidad de Información y Análisis Financiero (UIAF) para su estudio. Este trabajo muestra evidencia sobre la existencia de lavado de activos (LA) en las zonas rurales dedicadas al cultivo de hoja de cocal. Para esto, se estiman una serie de modelos que relacionan distintas medidas de ROS, variable que recoge las dinámicas de LA, con la presencia de cultivos ilícitos. Para las estimaciones se utiliza un panel municipal entre 2000 y 2010 que contiene variables que permiten controlar por actividad económica, violencia, conflicto e instituciones. Se encuentra una relación positiva entre los ROS y los cultivos ilícitos, esta relación se mantiene a través de diversas especificaciones y ejercicios de robustez. Se concluye la existencia de LA, identificado mediante los ROS, en zonas rurales.
Fecha	06/12/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Inversión Extranjera Directa en Colombia en el siglo XX, énfasis en el sector petróleo

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Humberto Bernal, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Este documento presenta la evolución de la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED) en Colombia entre 1900 y 2010 y destaca los principales acontecimientos relacionados con este tipo de inversión, se realiza énfasis en la IED hacia el sector petróleo. El control de capitales a través de la Ley 444 de 1967 y el Acuerdo de Cartagena entre los miembros del Grupo Andino en 1969 dominó gran parte de la legislación referente a los flujos de IED hacia Colombia. Posterior a 1991 se incrementa el libre comercio y el flujo de capitales donde la IED toma una gran relevancia hasta el punto de crear agencia promotoras de la IED en Colombia. El documento destaca la IED hacia el sector petróleo debido a su relevancia en el desarrollo económico de Colombia, gracias a este sector Colombia ha financiando gran parte de su consumo externo. El modelo para determinar la significancia de los determinantes se desarrolló bajo la teoría Ownership, Location and Internalization (OLI) y herramientas microeconómicas de libro de texto. Los resultados son significativos bajo estimación econométricas. Se destaca el impacto negativo de incrementos en la tasa de secuestros y tasa de homicidios sobre la acumulación de IED en el sector petróleo colombiano. Otro determinante relevante es la variación del precio real del petróleo.
Archivo
Fecha	04/12/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Optimal Taxation and Occupational Choice: The Redistributive Role of Production Inefficiencies"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Jean-Marie Lozachmeur, Toulouse School of Economics
Descripción	Coautores: Renato Gomes , Toulouse School of Economics y Alessandro Pavan , Northwestern University Abstract: Following the seminal contribution of Diamond and Mirrlees (1971), production efficiency is often thought as a key property of optimal tax systems. The celebrated Diamond-Mirrlees theorem shows that when the government can use differientiated linear taxes on all factors (input and output), the economy should lie at the production efficient frontier of the economy. Strikingly, at the optimum, distortions in consumption produced by income taxation do not translate into distortions in production. This result has important consequences for the design of tax systems. For instance, the Diamond-Mirrlees theorem provides an intellectual justification for opposing the taxation of intermediate goods, as well as the use of profession-specific payroll taxes, or profession-specific income tax deductions. In the case of labor inputs, profession-specific taxation produces a wedge between wages and productivities, what leads to an undesirable violation of production efficiency. One important assumption behind these prescriptions is that labor input is homogenous accross professions (or sectors of the economy). This paper departs from the Diamond-Mirrlees setting by considering a model where agents have different skills for working at different professions, and can choose which profession to follow in response to the equilibrium wage levels and the relative tax burden accross professions. The main result of the analysis is that when occupational choice is endogeneous and agents have different skills on different professions, then the optimal tax system introduces violations on production efficiency in order to reduce the costs of income redistribution. Production efficiency has first been challenged by Naito (1998). This author has developped a simple two types model with skilled and unskilled workers each producing two goods. When the goverment cannot observe individuals skills, the taxation can solely be based on observable income. The production efficiency then breaks down since the government cannot apply different tax rates on different types of labour supply. Saez (2004) then emphasized that this result is true only in the short run i.e when individuals do not choose their occupation choice between skilled and unskilled workers. But in the long run, when individuals choose their occupation choice only according to the after tax rewards, production efficiency is restored. However a strong assumption in this model is that workers are equalily skilled in each occupation. Indeed workers choose their occupation according to the tax rewards and a separable cost parameter that is assumed to be idependently distributed over the while population of workers. Such an assumption can also be found in Scheuer (2011) in a model where agents choose wether to become entrepreneur or workers. This author finds that when the income taxation cannot be based on the occupational choice but only on income, production efficiciency arises only when the production function is linear between the two types of work. He however finds that production efficiency can be restored when the income taxation can be based on occupational choice. Contrary to Saez (2004) and Scheuer(2011), our model allows workers to differ in their privately known skill in each occupation. We study the simple case where an homogeneous product is produced using two types of labour possibly differing in their productivity. The government is Rawlsian and seeks to implement a tax schedule solely based on observable income. Workers choose simultaneously their occupation and their labor supply by maximzing their utility. Our results show that (i) whether the income tax can or cannot be based on occupation, production efficiency never arises even if the production function is linear in the two types of labour and (ii) for any symmetric distribution of skills, occupational choice should be distorted towards the more productive sector.
Fecha	29/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Externalities of CCT Programs on Crime: The case of Familias en Acción in Bogotá

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Adriana Camacho, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Daniel Mejía y Catalina Ulloa Abstract This paper studies the collateral effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program (CCT) in Colombia, Familias en Acción (FeA), on crime in the urban area of the city of Bogotá. We combine two panel data sets: The administrative records of beneficiaries of FeA (SIFA) and crime reports by the National Police for the city of Bogotá. The paper evaluates two possible channels through which the program can affect crime. First, we evaluate the income effect, where we exploit the variation in the program´s disbursement dates together with the fraction of FeA beneficiaries at a small geographical unit level (UPZ). Second, we estimate the incapacitation effect using the mandatory holidays of the public education system, when students don’t have to attend school and have spare time. We find evidence in favor of both channels. More precisely, we find a disproportionate decrease in crime rates right after disbursement dates, and this effect is stronger in those geographic units with a higher fraction of FeA beneficiaries. We also find evidence that crime increases during vacation periods. Although CCT programs are not aimed to be a citizens security strategy, our evidence shows that they might have temporal non-negligible effects on crime rates.
Fecha	27/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Política monetaria y ciclos económicos regionales en Colombia

Lugar	W-101
A cargo	Jorge Quintero Otero, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Andrés González Gómez, Banco de la República Abstract: Este trabajo busca determinar si la política monetaria puede proporcionar una explicación parcial a las diferencias que existen en el comportamiento de los ciclos económicos entre las regiones de Colombia, así como también establecer la importancia que tienen en la explicación de estas diferencias, los canales tradicionales de transmisión sugeridos en la literatura. Utilizando proyecciones directas, una metodología alternativa a los VAR estructurales para la estimación de los impulsos respuestas, se encuentra que las acciones inesperadas de la autoridad monetaria no afectan de manera homogénea el ciclo económico en las regiones colombianas, y que la tasa de cambio es el canal de transmisión de la política monetaria que mejor explica estas diferencias.
Fecha	22/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Illegal Drug Markets and Violence in Mexico: The causes beyond Calderon

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan Camilo Castillo y Daniel Mejía, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Pascual Restrepo (MIT) Abstract: What are the main causes behind the surge in violence experienced in Mexico in the last few years? Has the relative success in the war on drugs in Colombia in recent years played an important role in explaining the epidemic-like increases in violence in Mexico since 2007? This paper studies and quantifies the effect that drug trafficking activities has had on violence in Mexico. We use two different proxies for drug trafficking at the municipal level: cocaine seizures and information on the presence of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). In order to solve the potential endogeneity problem, we instrument these variables using simple geographic features of each municipality that capture their comparative advantage in illegal drug trade, and supply shocks in Mexico caused by cocaine seizures in Colombia. Our estimates show that the rise of Mexican DTOs is partly a result of successful interdiction policies implemented in Colombia, and this in turn explains a non-negligible fraction of the levels of violence observed in Mexico in the last few years. The effects are particularly large for violence generated by wars between DTOs (executions). Furthermore, our results indicate that the effect of drug trafficking activities on violence are only significant for municipalities with presence of two or more cartels. Finally, we do a series of falsification tests that further corroborate the channel proposed by our identification strategy.
Fecha	20/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Movilidad Social y Transición Demográfica en Colombia-1870

Lugar	ML-513
A cargo	B. Piedad Urdinola, Profesora Asociada, Departamento de Estadística-Universidad Nacional de Colombia.
Descripción	Coautor: Hermes Tovar, Profesor Titular, Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes.
Archivo
Fecha	15/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Las virtudes burguesas.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Deirdre McCloskey, Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication, University of Illinois at Chicago. Professor of Economic History, Gothenburg University, Sweden.
Descripción	Abstract: Bourgeois virtues" is not a crazy contradiction in terms. Economists nowadays are slowly recognizing that virtues underlie a market economy. And economic historians have long understood so, in the lives of Quakers and the vital few. Yet what the social sciences have not recognized is that a market economy can actually produce virtues, and some of the best: prudence and courage and hope called "enterprise," for example. We are stuck viewing virtues only as those of soldiers and saints. We need a re-orientation to suit a world in which we are all now bourgeois.
Fecha	13/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “Efecto de las restricciones vehiculares en Bogotá sobre la contaminación y uso del automóvil”

Lugar	SD-716
A cargo	Jorge Bonilla, Universidad de Gotemburgo
Descripción	Las restricciones a la circulación del automóvil durante ciertas horas del día de acuerdo con el número de placa del vehículo se han convertido en un instrumento habitual en varias ciudades del mundo para tratar los problemas de congestión de tráfico y contaminación del aire. Bogotá, a diferencia de otros programas evaluados, ha llevado a cabo una implementación gradual del programa de restricción vehicular Pico y Placa haciéndose más estricto a través del tiempo. Este estudio analiza mediante el uso de modelos dinámicos los efectos de corto y largo plazo del rigor incrementado de Pico y Placa sobre la contaminación y el uso del automóvil, utilizando datos de alta frecuencia sobre las concentraciones de monóxido de carbono, información mensual del consumo de gasolina, registro y venta de vehículos. Los resultados muestran efectos diferenciados del programa sobre la calidad del aire y el uso del auto en el corto y largo plazo y entre los niveles de rigor del programa, los cuales tienden a cuestionar la efectividad del programa a través del tiempo.
Fecha	08/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Impact of Armed Conflict on Economic Performance: Evidence from Rwanda

Lugar	SD-716
A cargo	Pieter Serneels; University of East Anglia and IZA
Descripción	Coautor: Marijke Verpoorten, University of Leuven Abstract: Important gaps remain in the understanding of the economic consequences of civil war. Focusing on the conflict in Rwanda in the early 90s, and using micro data to carry out econometric analysis, this paper finds that households and localities that experienced more intense conflict are lagging behind in terms of consumption six years after the conflict, a finding that is robust to taking into account the endogeneity of violence. Significantly different returns to land and labour are observed between zones that experienced low and high intensity conflict which is consistent with on-going recovery. Distinguishing between civil war and genocide, the findings also provide evidence that these returns, and by implication the process of recovery, depend on the form of violence.
Archivo
Fecha	01/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ School Participation and Labor Supply in Urban Mexico: Evaluating Alternative CCT Policies Using Structural Estimation

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Arturo Harker Roa; Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Abstract: I develop and estimate a dynamic household choice model that incorporates a broad set of determinants of children's labor supply and school attendance, to perform ex-ante evaluations of alternative versions of the urban implementation of the Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades. Previous research suggests that re-calibrating the targeting and parameters of the educational component of the program could potentially improve its eectiveness with respect to two key objectives: (i) increasing average schooling levels and (ii) eliminating the educational gender gap. The estimation of this behavioral model complements previous ex-post evaluations by providing a forecasting tool that can replicate how the households solve the optimization problem as the program's structure changes. I focus on evaluating cost-equivalent policy schemes that improve the program's ecacy in the rst dimension. I nd that, by eliminating grants at primary and lower secondary levels (where attendance is close to universal) and proportionally expanding transfers at upper secondary, attendance rates could increase by 14.8% for youth 15-17.
Archivo
Fecha	30/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “A Guide for the Young Economist. Writing and Speaking Effectively about Economics”

Lugar	SD-716
A cargo	William Thomson de University of Rochester
Fecha	25/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Fighting Crime with a Little Help from my Friends. Party Affiliation, Inter-jurisdictional Cooperation and Crime in Mexico"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Ruben Durante, Assistant Professor Department of Economics-Sciences Po
Descripción	Coautor: Emilio Gutierrez, ITAM Abstract We investigate the relationship between inter-jurisdictional cooperation and the effectiveness of law enforcement in Mexico. Exploiting a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) in close municipal elections, we study how improved opportunities for cooperation in crime-prevention among neighboring municipalities - proxied by their degree of political alignment - may result in lower rates of violent crime. We find that municipalities in which the party in power in the majority of neighboring jurisdictions barely won experience significantly lower homicide rates during the mayor's mandate than those in which it barely lost. This effect is sizable - a decrease of 25 to 40\% - and is independent of which party is in power in the neighboring municipalities. Political alignment with neighbors is not correlated with a variety of other outcomes including homicide rates during the previous mandate. The observed reduction in crime does not appear to be driven by improved cooperation with state and federal authorities.
Fecha	23/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Market for Diversity in Local Television News.

Lugar	SD-716
A cargo	Lisa M. George, Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY
Descripción	Coautor: Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Harvard Business School Abstract: A substantial body of economic theory considers the link between competition and variety in differentiated product markets, yet empirical evidence of product differentiation strategies in media markets remains thin. In particular, we know virtually nothing of differentiation strategies in television news, which remains the primary news source for US households. This paper studies the causes and consequences of differentiation in local television news programs. We develop a revealed preference measure of viewer loyalty from television viewership. We link this demand-based differentiation measure: (1) to news coverage, to determine points of differentiation in television news; (2) to news viewership, to evaluate the value of differentiation to consumers; and (3) to advertising prices, to establish the value of loyalty in the advertising market. Preliminary results show that ideological differentiation is important in television news, with coverage of ideological topics associated with greater loyalty and higher viewership. Greater business coverage and less government coverage is also associated with loyalty. Greater loyalty is associated with higher news viewership overall, and higher advertising prices per viewer.
Archivo
Fecha	18/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Words versus Bullets: Media and Democracy with Coercion.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Leopoldo Fergusson; Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Juan F. Vargas y Mauricio A. Vela Abstract: An independent and active media may not favor political accountability when other institutions are weak. We propose a simple model in which politicians running for office may engage in coercion to obtain votes. We show that a media scandal that exposes the misbehaved candidates increases their coercion effort to offset the negative popularity shock. This may result in the tainted politicians actually increasing their vote share. We provide empirical evidence focusing on one salient episode of the recent political history of Colombia, the ‘parapolítica’ scandal featuring politicians colluding with illegal armed groups to obtain votes. We show that colluding candidates exposed by the press not only get more votes than their clean competitors, but also concentrate them in areas where coercion is more likely to occur and state institutions are weaker. Harder to reconcile with other explanations and as a direct test of the effects of media exposure, the same is true for tainted candidates exposed before elections, relative to those exposed after. Our results highlight the complementarity between different institutional dimensions in a democracy: having free and active media may not be enough to ensure political accountability, and may bring undesirable unintended consequences.
Fecha	16/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Suspensión de pagos y restructuración de la deuda externa colombiana 1825 - 1921

Lugar	ML-513
A cargo	Edwin López, profesor asociado Programa de Economía-Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano
Descripción	Coautor: Fernando Barrios, profesor asociado Programa de Economía-Universidad Jorge Tadeo Lozano Abstract: En este ensayo se estudia cómo el desempeño económico y político interno, y los ciclos externos de endeudamiento afectaron la probabilidad de que el país suspendiera sus pagos de la deuda externa en el largo siglo XIX. Entre 1826 y 1828, 10 economías latinoamericanas, incluida Colombia, suspendieron los pagos de su deuda externa por primera vez en su historia, la cual habían adquirido principalmente con la Gran Bretaña alrededor de 1820. La difícil situación de las finanzas públicas (insolvencia y recomposición de pagos), los ciclos de endeudamiento internacional, las guerras civiles entre otros factores nacionales e internacionales se han identificado como las principales causas del endeudamiento colombiano y de los 5 episodios de cese de pagos de la deuda externa del país a lo largo del siglo XIX. Al integrarse todas las variables relevantes en un modelo probit, se corrobora que la pobreza de la economía colombiana, las crisis inflacionarias de fin de siglo y los constantes déficits fiscales del gobierno central determinaron de manera importante la probabilidad de que el país incurriera en suspensión de pagos de la deuda externa.
Fecha	11/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ On the (in)effectiveness of the aerial spraying campaigns in reducing illicit crops cultivation: Evidence from a quasi-experiment

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Daniel Mejía, Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Pascual Restrepo (MIT) y Sandra Rozo (MIT)
Fecha	09/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Evidence of Demand for Index Insurance: Experimental Games and Commercial Transactions in Ethiopia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Daniel Osgood, International Research Institute for Climate and Society Columbia University
Descripción	Coautores: Michael Norton, International Research Institute for Climate and Society Columbia University; Malgosia Madajewicz, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; y Eric Holthaus, University of Arizona Abstract: We present the results of a series of experimental games with smallholder farmers in the Tigray region of Ethiopia in 2010. In the games, participants were asked to allocate money to different risk management options. One of the options was Drought index insurance that was identical to commercial products sold in the region. Participants exhibited a clear preference for more aggressive insurance contracts with higher frequency payouts, as well as a preference for index insurance over other risk management options, including a simulated savings account with an interest rate higher than local market averages. The preference for higher frequency payouts is mirrored in the commercial sales of the product. This evidence challenges concerns that the very poor universally choose to purchase minimal index insurance coverage and supports claims that insurance demand may outpace the supply of responsible insurance products.
Archivo
Fecha	02/10/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Señalización y Competencia"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Tomás Rodríguez, Instituto Europeo (EUI)
Descripción	Coautor: Xu Tan, Department of Economics, Stanford University Abstract Múltiples candidatos compiten por un número exógeno de empleos. Existen distintas tareas, en las cuales el éxito de quien las ejecuta depende de su habilidad inobservable. Este artículo estudia un juego de señalización con múltiples emisores, en el cual cada uno escoge una tarea, y un receptor que observa las tareas escogidas por los emisores y su desempeño (éxito o fracaso) y con base en estas observaciones los asigna a los distintos empleos. Con el fin de analizar el efecto de diferentes niveles de competencia sobre le comportamiento de los agentes utilizamos dos refinamientos del concepto de equilibro secuencial de Kreps y Wilson: (1) Equilibrios que sobreviven al incremento del número de jugadores (2) Equilibrios basados en creencias del receptor que satisfacen una condición de monotonicidad. Esta condición de monotonicidad es una implicación del refinamiento de Banks y Sobel (divinidad) cuando el número de jugadores crece suficientemente. Demostramos que los únicos equilibrios secuenciales puros que satisfacen (1) son agrupadores, y que el equilibrio secuencial agrupador en el cual todos los emisores escogen la tarea más informativa es el único que satisface (1) y (2). Este resultado es distinto al que se obtiene en el modelo clásico de señalización de Spence en el cual el equilibrio separador eficiente es el único que sobrevive la aplicación de los refinamientos comunes del concepto de equilibrio secuencial.
Archivo
Fecha	18/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Are Anti-drug Programs Affecting Productivity? The case of coca leaf producers in Colombia

Lugar	ML-513
A cargo	Sandra V. Rozo, UCLA
Descripción	Abstract This paper uses two rounds of surveys collected by the United Nations Office for Crime and Drugs (UNODC) in Colombia between 2005 and 2010 to assess whether governmental intervention induces productivity innovation in coca cultivation. I estimate the effect of aerial spraying for seven outcomes in the short and the long-run including: i) kgs of coca leaf produced by hectare and per year, ii) kgs of coca leaf per hectare and per harvest, iii) number of harvests collected per year, iv) density of crops (measured as distance between plants), v) productive age of coca plants in years, vi) number of workers in coca crops, and vii) total harvested area in hectares. To solve the endogeneity problem between these variables and aerial spraying I instrument the treatment with the proximity of coca producers to protected areas (e.g., natural parks and reserves). This last is possible since by explicit governmental mandate protected areas cannot be fumigated in Colombia. The results of the estimations suggest a negative effect of aerial spraying over all outcomes in the short-term (i.e., one year). In particular, those producers that were fumigated produced 2868.9 less kgs of coca leaf per hectare and per year, and 433 less kgs of coca leaf per hectare and per harvest relative to the other producers. These results contradict the view that aerial spraying increased productivity of coca producers, at least for the period 2005 and 2010. However, I also found evidence that the effect of the fumigations over productivity in the long- term (1 or 2 years) is not statistically different from zero.
Archivo
Fecha	13/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Income Mobility and Welfare in Developing Countries

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	William Maloney, World Bank
Descripción	Coautores: Tom Krebs, University of Mannheim y Pravin Krishna, Johns Hopkins University and NBER Abstract This paper develops a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare. Individual income is assumed to follow a stochastic process with two (unobserved) components, an i.i.d. component representing measurement error or transitory income shocks and an AR(1) component representing persistent changes in income. We use a tractable consumption-saving model with labor income risk and incomplete markets to relate income dynamics to consumption and welfare, and derive analytical expressions for income mobility and welfare as a function of the various parameters of the underlying income process. The empirical application of our framework using data on individual incomes from Mexico provides striking results. Much of measured income mobility is driven by measurement error or transitory income shocks and therefore (almost) welfare-neutral. A smaller part of measured income mobility is due to either welfare-reducing income risk or welfare-enhancing "catching up" of low-income individuals with high-income individuals, both of which have economically significant effects on social welfare. Decomposing mobility into its fundamental components is thus seen to be crucial from the standpoint of welfare evaluation.
Archivo
Fecha	11/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Redistributive Inequality in Cooperation Dilemmas: An Economic Experiment on Fear and Greed

Lugar	LL-303
A cargo	César Andrés Mantilla, Estudiante de Doctorado, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Abstract: This work explores experimentally the role of asymmetric outcomes in cooperation dilemmas. Participants face three different games where the dimensions of “greed” and “fear” are controlled exogenously. Greed corresponds to the difference between the payoffs commonly known as temptation and reward, while Fear to the difference between punishment and sucker’s payoff. Our findings indicate that Fear dimension reduces the probability of cooperation considerably more than the Greed dimension. This asymmetry is held even under fixed matching, where subjects are more aware of the opponent’s previous movements under Fear than under Greed. Another finding is that the order in which dilemmas are faced is important: the increase in cooperation when switching to a less unequal dilemma is higher than the decrease in cooperation when switching to a more unequal dilemma.
Archivo
Fecha	06/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan José Echavarría; Banco de la República
Descripción	Coautores: Andrés González, Enrique López y Norberto Rodríguez (Banco de la República) Abstract: En este documento se utiliza la metodología FAVAR (factor augmented VAR) para evaluar el impacto de variaciones no esperadas en cuatro variables internacionales: las tasas de interés de corto plazo, el riesgo, el precio real del petróleo, el café y el carbón, y la actividad económica mundial. Se utilizan funciones de impulso respuesta y descomposición histórica de choques para evaluar la importancia de los factores externos en la actividad económica colombiana, con énfasis en la crisis de fin de siglo.
Archivo
Fecha	04/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Los efectos de regulaciones sobre contratos temporales, la organización de las firmas y la productividad.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Marcela Eslava; Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Autores: Marcela Eslava (Universidad de los Andes), John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland), Adriana Kugler (US Department of Labor) y Maurice Kugler (PNUD) Abstract: Evaluamos el impacto sobre la composición de los contratos laborales y de la productividad de una combinación de cambios en la legislación laboral colombiana que incrementan la habilidad de las firmas de utilizar contratos temporales y de cambios posteriores que aumentan los costos asociados con contratos de más larga duración. También caracterizamos determinantes a nivel de las firmas del uso de contratos de más corta duración. Encontramos que el desplazamiento hacia contratos a término fijo, por oposición a contratos a término indefinido, ha sido extendido en la industria manufacturera en Colombia durante la última década. Nuestros resultados indican que, como sería el caso en un escenario donde los contratos a término fijo están sujetos a menos costos de ajuste que aquellos a término indefinido, los contratos de corta duración son utilizados como amortiguadores de choques: firmas en expansión (contracción) expanden (contraen) su empleo principalmente en la categoría de término fijo. Por otra parte, los contratos a término fijo también parecen ser utilizados más generalmente como sustitutos de los contratos a término indefinido en particular cuando aumentan los costos laborales indirectos asociados con la regulación. El incremento en el uso de contratos a término fijo está asociado con ganancias de productividad al interior de las plantas pero solo en el caso de firmas que utilizan de forma menos intensiva trabajadores capacitados. Las firmas más intensivas en capacidad ven caer su productividad al utilizar más los contratos a término fijo. Finalmente, estas ganancias en la eficiencia en la asignación entre establecimientos están asociadas con um uso más intensivo de contratos a término fijo.
Archivo
Fecha	28/08/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “On the exhaustiveness of truncation and dropping strategies in many-to-many matching market”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Paula Jaramillo, Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: Cagatay Kayi (Universidad del Rosario) y Flip Klijn (IEA – CSIC) Abstract: We consider two-sided many-to-many matching markets in which each worker may work for multiple firms and each firm may hire multiple workers. We study individual and group manipulations in centralized markets that employ (pairwise) stable mechanisms and that require participants to submit rank order lists of agents on the other side of the market. We are interested in simple preference manipulations that have been reported and studied in empirical and theoretical work: truncation strategies, which are the lists obtained by removing a tail of least preferred partners from a preference list, and the more general dropping strategies, which are the lists obtained by only removing partners from a preference list (i.e., no reshuffling). We study when truncation / dropping strategies are exhaustive for a group of agents on the same side of the market, i.e., when each match resulting from preference manipulations can be replicated or improved upon by some truncation / dropping strategies. We prove that for each stable mechanism, truncation strategies are exhaustive for each agent with quota 1 (Theorem 1). We show that this result cannot be extended neither to group manipulations (even when all quotas equal 1 - Example 1), nor to individual manipulations when the agent's quota is larger than 1 (even when all other agents' quotas equal 1 - Example 2). Finally, we prove that for each stable mechanism, dropping strategies are exhaustive for each group of agents on the same side of the market (Theorem 2), i.e., independently of the quotas.
Fecha	21/08/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ “¿Quién se beneficia de los programas sociales en Colombia? Análisis de la pobreza desde una perspectiva multidimensional”

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Roberto Angulo, Director de Ingreso Social del Departamento para la Prosperidad Social –DPS y Renata Pardo, Consultora de la Dirección de Desarrollo Social del DNP
Descripción	El documento analiza el impacto de un conjunto de programas sociales sobre la pobreza multidimensional en Colombia. Los programas sociales analizados son aquellos que guardan relación con cuatro dimensiones del Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional (IPM): educación, salud, primera infancia y vivienda. El análisis se centra en tres aspectos: i) la incidencia de los programas sociales, ii) la eficiencia de su focalización y iii) su efecto sobre la magnitud de la pobreza multidimensional. Los resultados de incidencia indican que los beneficios de los programas sociales se han asignando progresivamente. Los beneficiarios han sido aquellos que se ubican en los quintiles de población con mayor proporción de privaciones. En general, el conjunto de programas sociales analizados contribuye significativamente a la reducción de la pobreza multidimensional. En ausencia de estas intervenciones la pobreza habría sido 22 puntos porcentuales más alta que la estimada oficialmente para el año 2010 (53.3% vs. 30.4%). Entre los programas sociales, el régimen subsidiado es el que más contribuye a la reducción de la pobreza multidimensional, mientras que los programas de vivienda son los que tienen el menor impacto.
Archivo
Fecha	14/08/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "El rediseño del programa Familias en Acción"

Lugar	W-101
A cargo	Roberto Angulo, Director de Ingreso Social del Departamento para la Prosperidad Social (DPS)
Descripción	Abstract: Durante el año 2011, el programa Familias en Acción entra en una etapa de revisión de su diseño y operación. Después de 10 años de implementación, se considera necesario rediseñar el programa teniendo en cuenta los resultados de las evaluaciones, el cambio en el diagnóstico de pobreza que se viene dando en el país en la última década y la evolución de las instituciones para la reducción de la pobreza. Por esto se plantea la necesidad de modificar el programa respetando los elementos que históricamente se han identificado como exitosos, pero introduciendo innovaciones que le permitan adaptarse a las demandas cambiantes de la sociedad. El nuevo programa se denomina Más Familias en Acción - (+ FA). La estructura funcional se conserva: sigue siendo un programa de transferencias monetarias condicionadas, con un elemento complementario de bienestar comunitario. Sin embargo, la estructura de pagos se modifica, para mejorar la progresividad geográfica de la transferencia y para combatir la creciente deserción escolar que se presenta en los últimos años de bachillerato. Además se introducen dos componentes adicionales: primero, el núcleo del programa se amplía para incluir a la población joven que se gradúa de educación media; segundo, se incorpora un componente de estrategias prioritarias.
Archivo
Fecha	09/08/2012
Hora	12.30 a 1:45 pm

+ The school reentry decision of poor girls. Structural estimation and policy analysis using PROGRESA database.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	María Nieves Valdés, Universidad Santiago de Chile
Descripción	Abstract En este documento presento un modelo estructural dinámico de las elecciones de estudios de las niñas estimado utilizando información de la base de datos mexicana PROGRESA. Esta metodología estructural permite evaluar la efectividad de varias políticas tendientes a incrementar las tasas de reingreso a la escuela de niñas de hogares de ingresos bajos. Para incrementar la asistencia a la escuela entre niños pobres en países en desarrollo, los encargados de la formulación de políticas han puesto en marcha programas de transferencias condicionales. Si bien las transferencias han sido bastante exitosas para mantener a las niñas en la escuela, tienen un impacto menor y relativamente bajo en incrementar la asistencia entre niñas que han abandonado los estudios. Los programas de transferencia de dinero pueden fallar porque la mayoría de estas niñas pobres abandonan la escuela para quedarse en sus casas ayudando con el trabajo doméstico, en vez de trabajar por un salario. Los resultados sugieren que políticas efectivas para incrementar el reingreso a la escuela para niñas pobres son incrementos considerables en el monto de la subvención, acceso gratuito a guarderías y jardines infantiles comunales y generalizar la disponibilidad de escuelas secundarias.
Archivo
Fecha	31/07/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ Derechos y fines políticos

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Rodolfo Arango Rivadeneira, Departamento de Filosofía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Abstract: Recientemente se modificó el corazón del modelo económico constitucional (artículo 334 de la Constitución) para introducir un incidente fiscal y conciliar el reconocimiento judicial de derechos con la estabilidad económica de las finanzas del Estado. En otro frente, en el fracasado pero aún no sepultado proyecto que reforma la ley de educación superior se define ésta como un derecho, un bien público meritorio y un servicio público. Ambos casos son ejemplo de la difícil relación entre derechos y fines políticos. La conferencia examina algunos criterios para diferenciar ambos términos extraídos de filosofía política y la teoría constitucional, criterios que permiten clarificar sus posibles relaciones. Se concluye que tanto en el caso de la reforma al 334 como de la definición de educación superior se cometen errores conceptuales con graves implicaciones para la justicia y la democracia.
Fecha	22/05/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Need for Enemies

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Leopoldo Fergusson, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautores: James A. Robinson, Ragnar Torvik y Juan F. Vargas Abstract: We develop a political economy model where some politicians have a comparative advantage in undertaking a task and this gives them an electoral advantage. This creates an incentive to underperform in the task in order to maintain their advantage. We interpret the model in the context of fighting against insurgents in a civil war and derive two main empirical implications which we test using Colombian data during the presidency of Álvaro Uribe. First, as long as rents from power are sufficiently important, large defeats for the insurgents should reduce the probability that politicians with comparative advantage, President Uribe, will fight the insurgents. Second, this effect should be larger in electorally salient municipalities. We find that after the three largest victories against the FARC rebel group, the government reduced its efforts to eliminate the group and did so differentially in politically salient municipalities. Our results therefore support the notion that such politicians need enemies to maintain their political advantage and act so as to keep the enemy alive.
Fecha	08/05/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm

+ "Job insecurity and life projects: the role of dismissal barriers institutions"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Juan A. Lacomba y Francisco Lagos, Department of Economics, Globe, University of Granada.
Descripción	Coautores: Ramón Cobo-Reyes y Natalia Jiménez Abstract: Labor market uncertainties, such as term-limited working contracts, unstable employment situations or high unemployment rates, affect some of the main (and sometimes irreversible) decisions in life. In this paper, we show experimentally how the presence of dismissal barriers in the labor market changes the decisions on these life projects. Results confirm that what matters for this kind of decisions is not only the current income position but also expectations about future income. The findings of this article shed light in two different dimensions: on one hand, we show how the presence of dismissal barriers in labor markets may provide a safer institutional setting to undertake life projects more successfully; on the other hand, we find that dismissal barriers can enhance the market efficiency if they are linked to workers’ performance.
Fecha	24/04/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Inequality in National Inter-Generational Transfers: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Jorge Tovar, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Coautor: Piedad Urdinola Abstract: Public transfers are designed with the idea of reducing poverty and inequality among specific population groups. The National Transfers Account methodology suggests the use of household education (HHE) as poverty proxy in the construction of profiles by socio-economic status. Considering the higher levels of inequality in developing countries we construct and check inequality and intergenerational transfers using an alternative measure based on variables not endogenous to the underlying idea of intergenerational transfers: a Multidimensional Quality of Life Index (MQLI). We apply the methodology to a developing country, Colombia, and show that inequality and disparities in intergenerational transfers are best understood when using the MQLI.
Fecha	17/04/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Can Consumers Complaints Reduce Product Reliability?

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Joaquín Coleff, Facultad de Economía - Universidad del Rosario
Fecha	10/04/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ The Effect of Medicaid on Children's Health: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Dolores De La Mata, Facultad de Economía-Universidad del Rosario
Descripción	Abstract: I estimate the causal impact of Medicaid on children's health care utilization and their subsequent health outcomes using a Regression Discontinuity design. I exploit the discontinuity generated by Medicaid's eligibility rule, based on family income, on program participation rates. In contrast with a standard regression discontinuity approach, here there are multiple eligibility thresholds that vary across states. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and its Child Development Study supplement, first, I find that Medicaid increases the use of preventive medical care. The effect is positive and significant only at low thresholds, between 100% and 185% of the poverty line, but not at high thresholds, between 185% and 250% of the poverty line. Second, I find that Medicaid has a null or even negative impact on health outcomes in the medium run. It increases the probability of being obese and it reduces the probability of being in excellent health. The negative effects are persistent between 1 and 2 years after being eligible, and then they vanish, and they appear both at low and high eligibility thresholds. The evidence suggests that perception effects, quality effect, waiting periods, and negative consumption effects may generate these results.
Fecha	27/03/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Turnout, Political Preferences and Information: Experimental Evidence from Perú.

Lugar	R-111
A cargo	Gianmarco Leon, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley.
Descripción	Abstract: Electoral institutions that encourage citizens to vote are widely used around the world. Yet little is known about the effects of such institutions on voter participation and the composition of the electorate. In this paper, I combine a field experiment with a change in Peruvian voting laws to identify the effect of fines for abstention on voting. Using the random variation in the fine for abstention and an objective measure of turnout at the individual level, I estimate the elasticity of voting with respect to cost to be -0.21. Consistent with the theoretical model presented, the reduction in turnout is driven by voters who (i) are in the center of the political spectrum, (ii) are less interested in politics, and (iii) hold less political information. However, voters who respond to changes in the cost of abstention do not have different preferences for policies than those who vote regardless of the cost. Further, involvement in politics, as measured by the decision to acquire political information, seems to be independent of the level of the fine. Additional results indicate that the reduction in the fine reduces the incidence of vote buying and increases the price paid for a vote.
Archivo
Fecha	22/03/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ "Buying Votes with Imperfect Local Knowledge and a Secret Ballot"

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Miguel R. Rueda, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester
Descripción	Abstract: I present a model of vote buying in which the party that bribes the voters does not observe their individual preferences or individual votes. Compliance is achieved by conditioning future bribes on whether the party's votes reach an optimally-set threshold. This monitoring mechanism generates a collective action problem among bribed voters that explains two findings in empirical studies: bribed voters comply if they believe others are doing the same, and compliance is harder to sustain in large populations. The model also shows that it is easier for parties to induce compliance of members of groups whose utility depends on the welfare of other members. This is consistent with the observed tendency of parties to target payments to groups with strong social ties among their members.
Fecha	20/03/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

+ Monetary Policy and the Great Inflation: A Multi-Country Time-Varying Analysis Using the Taylor Rule

Lugar	W-101
A cargo	Anastasia Zervou, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University.
Descripción	Abstract: This paper is motivated by the observation that the Great Inflation of the 1970's was an international phenomenon, and thus an explanation should be consistent with the timing of the events not only in the US, but in other developed countries too. We study an econometric model for examining monetary policy's responsibility in the developed world, gathering information from the cross sectional dimension that the international experience offers. We examine how the weights in a forward-looking Taylor-type of rule change over time for various developed countries. We explore whether these countries implemented similar changes to their policies during the period of the Great Inflation and later. We find that monetary authorities in our sample of countries responded mildly to inflation until almost the mid 1980's, after which they systematically fought it. Furthermore, we find that the correlation of the policy changes in response to inflation across countries is positive. Our empirical results indicate that the commonality in the way monetary authorities, among otherwise different economies, respond to inflation may be responsible for the common inflation patterns observed during the Great Inflation era. We point to the view that common idea