Seminario CEDE

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CEDE
Seminario CEDE

Martes 19 de enero | 10:00 a.m.
The Economic Value of Crime Control: Evidence from a Large Investment in Police Infrastructure
Presenta: Miguel Morales-Mosquera - University of Chicago

Jueves 21 de enero | 10:00 a.m.
Adaptation and mitigation of pollution: evidence from air quality warnings
Presenta: Sandra Aguilar-Gómez - Columbia University

Viernes 22 de enero | 10:00 a.m.
Time Investment Responses of Parents and Students to School Inputs
Presenta: Nicolás Badaracco - University of Wisconsin-Madison

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Nicolás Badaracco - University of Wisconsin-Madison
Abstract	This paper studies the relationship between school and home investments in the cognitive development of children and the behavior of the actors involved in the process. I employ large-scale administrative and survey data from Chile to estimate how parents and children in primary and secondary school adjust their time investment in response to classroom and teacher quality. Since classroom inputs are not directly observed, I first estimate the production function for cognitive skills that provides measures of classroom and teacher quality. I then estimate the time investment responses to these quality measures. I find that parents of younger children compensate for low quality whereas parents of older children reinforce quality. Students, on the other hand, increase time self-investment in response to higher quality, but the responses are larger for older children. Motivated by the heterogeneity in responses by school grade, I estimate a child development model and characterize the optimal allocation of school resources across grades. I find that it is optimal to allocate relatively more resources to lower grades. Moreover, ignoring the behavioral response of households implies an optimal allocation with substantially lower improvements in cognitive development.
Fecha	22 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Marta Reynal-Querol, UPF-ICREA-IPEG and Barcelona GSE
Coautor	José G.Montalvo (UPF-ICREA-IPEG and Barcelona GSE)
Abstract	In this paper, we document the long-run impact of the geographical heterogeneity in skills among the first settlers to Latin America. To this end, we compile administrative data on the early settlers in the Americas between 1492 and 1540 including, among others, name, city of origin, destination, and occupation. From a methodological perspective, a focus on the initial period of colonization in Latin America offers several advantages. First, differences in the geographical distribution of occupations among the first settlers are likely to be accidental. Second, a set-up that analyzes an area with a single colonizer (Spain) allows to hold constant formal institutions and legal origin. Our results show a relevant effect of the skills of first colonizers on long-run levels of development of the areas located around the original settlements. We find evidence of persistence in the form of market orientation and entrepreneurial spirit.
Documento	https://www.barcelonagse.eu/research/working-papers/colonization-early-settlers-and-development-case-latin-america
Fecha	27/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencista	Juan Pablo Posada, University of Western Australia
Coautores	Michael Jetter y Christopher Parsons (University of Western Australia)
Abstract	How can a state demobilize militants during a civil war? We study the effects of an information campaign to demobilize FARC rebels, when the Colombian government aired short information segments during games of the national football team between 2007 and 2016. Exploiting the quasi-random assignment of matches, we isolate the causal effect on demobilizations across all 1,122 Colombian municipalities. Exploring quasi-exogenous variation in kick-off times and rain across municipalities, our results reveal sizeable effects of these messages that reached out to rebels, offering them the opportunity to reintegrate into the Colombian society. Thousands of FARC rebels demobilized without the need to fire a bullet.
Archivo
Fecha	10/03/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-101
Conferencista	Ignacio Sarmiento Bavieri, University of Illinois
Coautores	Nicolas L. Bottan (Cornell University) and Andrés Ham (Universidad de los Andes)
Abstract	We estimate the effects on criminal activity due to the approval of state legislation in Illinois that legalized video gambling. The bill gave municipalities discretion over whether to allow video gambling within their local boundaries. Many jurisdictions adjacent to Chicago opted in, while the City of Chicago opted out. These decisions create a natural experiment that allows studying the effects of increasing access to gambling on crime. Using detailed incident-level crime data and a difference-indiferences strategy, we nd that (i) access to gambling increases violent and property crimes; (ii) these crimes represent \new" rather than displaced incidents; and (iii) effects are persistent over time. We further study downstream effects on property values, finding that properties adjacent to gambling establishments sell on average at a three percent discount.
Fecha	12/02/2020
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-102
Conferencistas	Daniel I. Rees (University of Colorado Denver) y D. Mark Anderson (Montana State University)
Coautor	Kerwin Kofi Charles (Yale University)
Abstract	Using data on 25 major American cities for the period 1900-1940, we explore the effects of municipal-level public health efforts that were viewed as critical in the fight against food- and water-borne diseases. In addition to studying interventions such as treating sewage and setting strict bacteriological standards for milk, which have received little attention in the literature, we provide new evidence on the effects of water filtration and chlorination, extending the work of previous scholars. Contrary to the consensus view, we find that none of the interventions under study contributed substantially to the observed declines in total and infant mortality.
Archivo
Fecha	13/06/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	C-307
Conferencista	Jose Maria Barrero, Stanford University
Abstract	I study how biases in managerial beliefs affect firm performance and the macro-economy. Using confidential survey data to test whether US managers have biased beliefs, I establish three facts. (1) Managers are neither over-optimistic nor pessimistic: their forecasts for future sales growth are correct on average. (2) Managers are overconfident: they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic or pessimistic depending on whether the firm is growing or shrinking at the time of the forecast. To quantify the micro and macro implications of these facts, I build and estimate a general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms may have biased beliefs and make dynamic hiring decisions subject to adjustment costs. Biased managers in the model overreact to changes in their firm’s profitability because they believe profitability is more persistent and stable than it really is. The model thus implies that a typical firm’s value would increase by 1.9 percent if it hired a rational manager. At the macro level, pervasive overreaction results in too many resources spent on reallocation. Welfare would be higher by 1 percent in an economy with rational managers
Archivo
Fecha	20/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	ML-512
Conferencista	Stephanie Majerowicz, Harvard University
Coautor	Ricardo Montero (University of Minnesota)
Archivo
Fecha	01/02/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	ML-513
Conferencista	Jonathan G. Malacarne, University of California, Davis
Archivo
Fecha	30/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	ML-608
Conferencista	Javier Romero Haaker, Duke University
Archivo
Fecha	17/01/2019
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	ML-514
Conferencista	Guido Friebel, Goethe University Frankfurt, CEPR, and IZA
Coautores	Michael Kosfeld (Goethe University Frankfurt, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA) and Gerd Thielmann (Deutsche Hochschule der Polizei)
Abstract	We conduct experimental games with police applicants in Germany to investigate whether intrinsically motivated agents self-select into this type of public service. Our focus is on trustworthiness and the willingness to enforce norms of cooperation as key dimensions of intrinsic motivation in the police context. We find that police applicants are more trustworthy than non-applicants, i.e., they return higher shares as second-movers in a trust game. Furthermore, they invest more in rewards and punishment when they can enforce cooperation as a third party. Our results provide clear evidence for self-selection of motivated agents into the German police force, documenting an important mechanism that influences the match between jobs and agents in public service.
Archivo
Fecha	24/10/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	Zoom
Conferencista	Sandra Aguilar-Gómez - Columbia University
Abstract	Standard economic analyses of environmental policy focus on either reducing pollution externalities through mitigation or reducing the harms from exposure by encouraging adaptation. In practice, these issues are both critical, particularly when looking at the health effects of local air pollutants, which can be acute, and policymakers often pair information provision with short and long-run mitigation actions. This paper studies one widely used example of such a policy— air quality alerts. I explore whether, in the context of the Mexico City air quality alert program, information policy is more effective when paired with mitigation. I find that the policy did not improve air quality or health outcomes until the mitigation component, which limited transport emissions, was introduced. I also use sensor-level traffic data, geo-tagged accident reports, and search data as a measure of awareness of the policy to unveil the mechanisms through which considerable short-run improvements in air quality and health are achieved after issuing an alert. I find that the alert reduces car usage even before the driving restrictions enter into place, suggesting that, due to an increased awareness of pollution, people reduce their trips.
Fecha	21 de enero de 2021
Hora	10:00 a.m.

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor	Luis Roberto Martínez
Abstract	We study the effect of civil conflict on investment using detailed microdata from Colombia’s largest agricultural bank. We use a difference-in-difference design that compares municipalities with varying levels of historical activity by insurgent group FARC before and after the 2016 demobilization agreement between this group and the Colombian government. We show that the monthly number of loans to small farmers in municipalities with historical FARC presence increases disproportionately after the agreement, without changes in average size or interest rate. This increase is driven by a larger number of applications and is concentrated in municipalities with better access to markets. There is no change in default rates and reports from randomized audits reveal no difference in misuse of funds. Effects are much weaker during the negotiation phase that preceded the agreement, despite a reduction in violence, suggesting that armed group presence and the threat of continued conflict disincentivize the pursuit of profitable investments.
Documento	https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3725231
Fecha	20/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Sandra Sequeira, Associate Professor, London School of Economics
Coautores	Stelios Michalopolous (Brown University), Elias Pappaioannou (London Business School), Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidade de Montevideo)
Abstract	We examine the impact of conflict-driven displacement on investments in human capital and occupational choice, looking at the Mozambican civil war (1977-1992), one of the largest and most diverse forced displacement episodes in recent times. Mozambique's uniquely rich 1997 census allows us to trace the movement of more than 4 million individuals who were either internally displaced into cities and rural areas or externally displaced into refugee camps in neighboring countries. To overcome selection in displacement trajectories, we compare the displacement experience of siblings separated during the war, in areas equidistant (in terms of transport costs) to cities and to refugee camps. Children displaced into urban areas were more likely to invest in education and later experience a shift towards occupations outside of agriculture, even when they returned to the countryside once the war was over. Displacement to refugee camps in neighbouring countries yields no discernible differences in education and occupational specialization compared to rural non-movers. These patterns hold even when restricting our sample to twins and to siblings of the same gender and age group. Increased investments in schooling do not appear to be driven by increased access to school but instead, by a reduction in violence and by a move to areas with a higher stock of human capital, particularly cities. We then conduct a survey in one of Mozambique's largest cities to uncover the long-run impact of forced displacement. We show that displaced individuals have significantly higher education than their siblings, and that they seem to have integrated socially into urban areas, having comparable views and attitudes to non-mover city-dwellers. Yet, internally displaced individuals have lower mental health levels, lower levels of intra-community trust, and are less optimistic about economic mobility relative to city dwellers not displaced during the war. These findings underscore how forced displacement can act as a mobility shock that breaks links with subsistence agriculture, increases investments in education, and consequently increases human capital accumulation. However, it may come at the cost of decreased mental health.
Fecha	13/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

Lugar	Webex
Conferencista	Cesi Cruz, Vancouver School of Economics Department of Political Science University of British Columbia
Coautores	Julien Labonne (University of Oxford), Pablo Querubín (New York University)
Abstract	We study the relationship between social structure and political incentives for public goods provision. We argue that when politicians–rather than communities–are responsible for the provision of public goods, social fractionalization may decrease the risk of elite capture and lead to increased public goods provision and electoral competition. We test this using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages of the Philippines. We take advantage of naming conventions to assess intermarriage links between families and use community detection algorithms to identify the relevant clans in those villages. We show that there is more public goods provision and political competition in villages with more fragmented social networks, a result that is robust to controlling for a large number of village characteristics and to alternative estimation techniques.
Documento
Fecha	06/11/2020
Hora	10:00 a 11:30 am.

Lugar	SD-715
Conferencista	Mattia Fochesato, New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE
Abstract	In this paper I investigate the “little divergence” of late medieval and early modernEurope, focusing on the long run response of real wages to demographic changes.Through a quantitative analysis of the 14th-18th centuries series of real wages and population shocks in fourteen European cities, I find that in four north-western cities(Amsterdam, Antwerp, London, and Oxford) the urban real wages were detached from population before the Industrial Revolution, while, in the central and southern Europe wages had a moderate or negative response to population changes. In addition, I show that this different response dates back to the 16th century. I claim, that these two results support three possibly non alternative interpretations of the “little divergence”,either based on changes of fertility regimes, rural and urban labor organizations, or on the onset, in early modern north-western Europe, of non strictly Malthusian growth mechanisms.
Fecha	26/01/2018
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	Por confirmar
Conferencista	Miguel Espinosa, LSE
Abstract	This paper proposes and tests a theory of vertical integration with knowledge workers. Outsourcing allows firms to solve hard problems at the cost of transmitting firm-specific knowledge. By hiring someone internally, firms save on these communication costs, with the downside of incurring costs of acquiring knowledge. Exploiting the increasing returns to the use of knowledge implies conducting easy and frequent activities in-house and harder and less frequent tasks in the external market. The economy saves communication costs when firms with large firm-specific knowledge conduct activities in-house. I confirm the empirical validity of this theory using data from a knowledge-intensive industry: US Federal Lobbying. First, using information at both the industry and bill levels, I validate the main theoretical predictions using client fixed-effects estimations. Second, I exploit the 2010 BP oil spill as an exogenous increase in the difficulty of the lobbying activities for the oil and gas extracting industry, and I show it led to a disproportionate increase in the use of external lobbyists for the affected industry. Lastly, I argue that the 2007 Open Government Act modified both the distribution of problems that firms faced and the technology to acquire knowledge. Estimating the underlying parameters of the integration decision, I explain how these two changes modified the integration patterns of the industry.
Fecha	10/02/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-204
Conferencista	Santiago Saavedra, Stanford University
Coautor	Mauricio Romero, University of California
Abstract	National governments can only tax the economic activity they either directly observe or that is reported by municipal authorities. In this paper we investigate how illegal mining, a very common phenomenon in Colombia, changed with a tax reform that reduced the share of revenue transferred back to mining municipalities. To overcome the challenge of measuring illegal activity, we construct a novel dataset using machine learning predictions on satellite imagery features. Theoretically we expect illegal mining to increase because the amount required to bribe the local authority is smaller after the reform. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, with Peru as the control, we find that illegal mining increased by 1.41 percentage points as share of the mining area. In addition, we provide suggestive evidence that illegal mines have more harmful health effects on the surrounding population than legal mines. These results illustrate unintended effects of tax revenue redistribution.
Fecha	18/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-506
Conferencista	Nicolás de Roux, Columbia University
Abstract	Credit scoring has become a widespread tool to assess the creditworthiness of prospective borrowers, and has been found to increase efficiency and welfare in many settings. But this paper identifies a shortcoming in existing credit scoring systems that may lead to a market failure in agricultural lending in developing countries: Farmers' scores - and their access to credit - decline because of exogenous short-term weather shocks that do not reduce their likelihood of future repayment. I use data on the near universe of formal agricultural loans for coffee production in Colombia to show that excess rainfall shocks cause lower concurrent loan repayment, lower credit scores, and more frequent denial of subsequent loan applications. Drawing on the agronomic literature on coffee production and using survey data, I show that productivity, income and repayment behavior recover faster from these shocks than farmers' credit histories. The additional loan denials create costs for both farmers and the lender that could be avoided. The results suggest that incorporating verifiable information on individual level shocks into credit scores would increase the efficiency of credit markets.
Fecha	16/01/2017
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	Hemiciclo 002
Conferencista	Cinthia Konichi-Paulo, University Of Pennsylvania
Abstract	This paper empirically analyzes procurement auctions in which suppliers must decide their bid based on expectations about how future market conditions will affect their costs. While previous literature has focused on the uncertainty about winning or losing the auction, I examine the risk that is intrinsic to the contract. I use data from government procurement auctions in the State of Sao Paulo in Brazil for fresh produce to study the e-ect of contract risk on auction outcomes. I find that suppliers are risk averse and therefore include a risk premium in the prices they bid, which can reach 38% of the price for some goods. In addition, I show that a simple change in the payment scheme, in which the government pays a fixed amount plus 40% of the reference index of wholesale prices, could reduce the risk premium to less than 1% of the bid price for all goods analyzed.
Archivo
Fecha	05/02/2016
Hora	3:00 a 4:30 pm.

Lugar	Hemiciclo 001
Conferencista	Ricardo Pique, Northwestern University
Abstract	In this paper, I study how wages earned by local politicians affect local government quality. I construct a novel data set on Peruvian municipalities which includes individual level data on the characteristics of local authorities, candidates and top bureaucrats, as well as detailed information on local government performance, bureaucratic structures and local politics. To identify the effects, I use caps imposed by the Peruvian central government on the wages earned by local mayors as an excluded instrument. The results indicate that mayoral wages do not improve local government quality. I find evidence of a robust, negative impact on public investment performance. Moreover, I find no evidence of a positive effect on politician and bureaucrat selection and on political effort. I consider multiple explanations for the performance result and conclude that this can be attributed, in part, to greater political opposition and fragmentation. Wages strongly affect the local political landscape, leading to more political opposition and fragmentation. These latter factors are shown to be detrimental for local government performance.
Archivo
Fecha	14/01/2016
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	SD-503
Conferencista	José Ignacio López- HEC Paris
Coautor	Virginia Olivella - Banque de France
Abstract	Since the end of the 90s, many Central Banks in Latin America have adopted inflation targeting and used short-term interest rates as their main policy instrument. In this paper we discuss the relationship between short-term interest rates and exchange rates for 5 Latin American countries in the context of a model with preferences for early resolution of uncertainty and time-varying risk-premium. We find that differences in monetary policy between the US and Latin America can help to explain the excess returns of some of the currencies of the region.
Fecha	05/06/2015
Hora	11:00 am. a 12:30 pm.

Lugar	SD-702
Conferencista	Federico Grinberg, University of California at Los Angeles
Descripción	This paper studies why inflation in consumer prices is so low after episodes of large currency depreciations in emerging economies, and to what extent this is a consequence of nominal rigidities. Using a small open economy model with menu-cost nominal frictions that is calibrated to micro data from Mexico's Consumer Price Index, I find that in episodes of large depreciations, the effect of nominal rigidities in retail prices are quantitatively small and short lived. The incomplete exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is largely a result of a fall in real wages explained by negative real shocks and nominal stickiness in wages.
Archivo
Fecha	16/01/2015
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-102
A cargo	Andrés Fernandez (BID)
Descripción	Co-autores: Alessandro Rebucci (The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School) y Martín Uribe (Department of Economics - Columbia University) A growing recent theoretical literature advocates the use of prudential capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on cross-border capital flows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in a large number of countries over the period 1995-2011. We find that capital controls are remarkably acyclical. Boom-bust episodes in output, the current account, or the real exchange rate are associated with virtually no movements in capital controls. These results are robust to decomposing boom-bust episodes along a number of dimensions, including the level of development, the level of external indebtedness, or the exchange-rate regime. We also document a near complete acyclicality of capital controls during the Great Contraction of 2007-2009.
Archivo
Fecha	31/07/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	SD-701
A cargo	Federico Filippini, New York University
Archivo
Fecha	24/01/2014
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	ML-509
A cargo	Jim Murphy (University of Alaska Anchorage)
Descripción	Coautores: Lance Howe (University of Alaska Anchorage), Colin West (University of North Carolina), Drew Gerkey (Oregon State University). This paper will present the results from a series of field experiments conducted in Kamchatka Russia and Western Alaska that focus on sharing and cooperation in a risky social dilemma. We find strong evidence of risk pooling even without an external commitment device or an opportunity for reciprocity. When faced with idiosyncratic risk, participants make large unconditional direct transfers to individuals who incur a loss, even in the absence of any information about the cooperative behavior of the affected person. However, as more information is revealed, sharing decisions are increasingly conditioned on the cooperative behavior of the affected individual. We also find that in a social environment in which a reputation can be established, voluntary sharing and collective action can be mutually enforcing.
Fecha	24/09/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	SD-704
A cargo	Fernando Leibovici, New York University
Descripción	This paper studies the extent to which frictions in financial markets affect aggregate trade flows. I study a model of firm dynamics with financial frictions and international trade, calibrated to match key features of firm-level data. I find that, while financial frictions have a large effect on the pattern and extent of international trade at the industry-level, as documented in the literature, they have a small effect on trade at the aggregate-level. Relaxing the financial constraints allows more firms to finance the upfront export entry costs, with a significant impact on industry-level trade flows to the extent that the industry is small enough to affect equilibrium prices. In contrast, removing the financial constraints at the aggregate-level leads to an increase in the wage and interest rate, thereby reducing the returns to becoming an exporter, with a small impact on aggregate trade flows. I also find that the cross-industry response of international trade to financial development is quantitatively consistent with industry-level evidence on the extent of trade across countries, and that the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing trade by easing the access to credit for exporters is limited if implemented at an economy-wide scale.
Archivo
Fecha	15/02/2013
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	SD-716
A cargo	Jorge Bonilla, Universidad de Gotemburgo
Descripción	Las restricciones a la circulación del automóvil durante ciertas horas del día de acuerdo con el número de placa del vehículo se han convertido en un instrumento habitual en varias ciudades del mundo para tratar los problemas de congestión de tráfico y contaminación del aire. Bogotá, a diferencia de otros programas evaluados, ha llevado a cabo una implementación gradual del programa de restricción vehicular Pico y Placa haciéndose más estricto a través del tiempo. Este estudio analiza mediante el uso de modelos dinámicos los efectos de corto y largo plazo del rigor incrementado de Pico y Placa sobre la contaminación y el uso del automóvil, utilizando datos de alta frecuencia sobre las concentraciones de monóxido de carbono, información mensual del consumo de gasolina, registro y venta de vehículos. Los resultados muestran efectos diferenciados del programa sobre la calidad del aire y el uso del auto en el corto y largo plazo y entre los niveles de rigor del programa, los cuales tienden a cuestionar la efectividad del programa a través del tiempo.
Fecha	08/11/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	LL-303
A cargo	César Andrés Mantilla, Estudiante de Doctorado, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción	Abstract: This work explores experimentally the role of asymmetric outcomes in cooperation dilemmas. Participants face three different games where the dimensions of “greed” and “fear” are controlled exogenously. Greed corresponds to the difference between the payoffs commonly known as temptation and reward, while Fear to the difference between punishment and sucker’s payoff. Our findings indicate that Fear dimension reduces the probability of cooperation considerably more than the Greed dimension. This asymmetry is held even under fixed matching, where subjects are more aware of the opponent’s previous movements under Fear than under Greed. Another finding is that the order in which dilemmas are faced is important: the increase in cooperation when switching to a less unequal dilemma is higher than the decrease in cooperation when switching to a more unequal dilemma.
Archivo
Fecha	06/09/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	R-111
A cargo	Gianmarco Leon, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley.
Descripción	Abstract: Electoral institutions that encourage citizens to vote are widely used around the world. Yet little is known about the effects of such institutions on voter participation and the composition of the electorate. In this paper, I combine a field experiment with a change in Peruvian voting laws to identify the effect of fines for abstention on voting. Using the random variation in the fine for abstention and an objective measure of turnout at the individual level, I estimate the elasticity of voting with respect to cost to be -0.21. Consistent with the theoretical model presented, the reduction in turnout is driven by voters who (i) are in the center of the political spectrum, (ii) are less interested in politics, and (iii) hold less political information. However, voters who respond to changes in the cost of abstention do not have different preferences for policies than those who vote regardless of the cost. Further, involvement in politics, as measured by the decision to acquire political information, seems to be independent of the level of the fine. Additional results indicate that the reduction in the fine reduces the incidence of vote buying and increases the price paid for a vote.
Archivo
Fecha	22/03/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	SD-703
A cargo	Dean Scrimgeour; Assistant Professor of Economics Colgate University
Descripción	This paper explores the dynamic behavior of a Romer-style endogenous growth model, analyzing how changes in tax rates affect government revenue in the short run and the long run. I show that in this environment lowering taxes on financial income is unlikely to stimulate tax revenue in the long run and has modest effects on the tax base, contrary to some other studies of the dynamic response of revenue to tax rates. Calibrations of the model that suggest Laffer curve effects can be substantial require implausibly low values for the elasticity of substitution between varieties of intermediate goods. For more plausible parameter values, I find that around 20% of a tax cut would be self-financing due to an expansion in the tax base.
Archivo
Fecha	23/02/2012
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W-404
A cargo	Daniel Vaughan, PhD. in Economics, New York University
Descripción	I develop a tractable model of transmission of culture and preferences. At each time t a three-partite cultural game takes place, with children playing a conformity game with each other, parents playing a socialization game with each other, and children and parents playing an intergenerational, sequential game. I find suffcient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a symmetric equilibrium, that allows me to characterize the transition to a unique cultural steady-state where all cultures blend with each other. Using the Add Health and National Educational Longitudinal Study surveys, I test the main predictions of the model, and show that there is convincing evidence of convergence across four ethnic groups for a battery of variables that include religion, alcohol consumption and education outcomes and expectations. As an important by-product I show a method to estimate social interaction effects residually, by consistently estimating parental effects.
Fecha	19/07/2011
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	AU-203
A cargo	Adolfo Meisel, Gerente Sucursal Cartagena, Banco de la República.
Archivo
Fecha	24/03/2011
Hora	12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Lugar	W 404
A cargo	Juan Pablo Torres; Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Chile.
Fecha	12/01/2010
Hora	12:30 a 2:00 pm.

Lugar	SD-806
A cargo	Paula Jaramillo, Ph.D. (Candidate) Department of Economics - University of Rochester.
Descripción	Coautor: Vikram Manjunath.
Archivo
Fecha	26/02/2010
Hora	12:30 a 2:00 pm.