Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2023-02
JEL: D10, D15, D91
Market failures, such as market power, externalities and imperfect information, have played a major role in economic theory. This article studies internalities, as others have done in the past, as agent failures. To do so, it considers economic agents with imperfect foresight, that face internal conflicts between say, rationality and impulsivity; consciousness and unconsciousness, short run welfare and long run welfare; between members of the board; or between members of the Government cabinet or a majority coalition in Congress. This allows to identify the biases in judgment that lead to the misallocation of resources and the loss of welfare, that have been studied for example in behavioral economics, and that are defined here as internalities. Such approach helps to explain irrational or unexpected behaviors, expanding the use of the tools of conventional economic theory; and understand better and hopefully improve, personal, social and public solutions, to this important source of economic inefficiencies.
02-02-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-01
JEL: B54, D72, J16
La participación femenina en la política es importante para garantizar que los intereses de las mujeres sean representados a la hora de tomar decisiones. Esta investigación estudia si tener a mujeres como funcionarias públicas reduce la violencia contra la mujer en Colombia. Se provee evidencia de que el liderazgo femenino en el gobierno local reduce las llamadas a un hotline de la Policía que recolecta denuncias de mujeres por violencia intrafamiliar, y este impacto se va amplificando a lo largo de los años. Además, la representación femenina a nivel municipal puede disminuir la media la tasa anual de estas solicitudes en un 22%. Al considerar mecanismos, las alcaldesas parecen ser más propensas a tomar medidas que den oportunidades a la población femenina en el campo laboral y educativo, disminuyendo de manera indirecta la incidencia de violencia contra la mujer en el hogar y el reporte de las víctimas a la línea de la Policía. El trabajo concluye resaltando la relevancia de incentivar la participación femenina en la política para mejorar las condiciones de vida de las mujeres en Colombia.
01-02-2023
Documento CEDE 2022-45
JEL: D70, H41, H76, N46
This paper shows that franchise extension is not enough for commitment to redistribution and that in the absence of de facto empowerment, the threat of revolution is intact. In particular, the paper studies the relationship between a democratic reform that extends the political rights of a threatening group and redistribution during periods of revolutionary threat. Far from causing an increase in broad redistribution (e.g. social spending), I show that democratic reform -the state organization of a social movement that extends political rights- can be used to identify rebel leaders and provide private goods to them, in return for preventing social unrest and demobilizing their supporters. I study the context of the organization by the state of the most important social movement in Colombian history -the National Peasant Movement (ANUC)- over almost three decades (1957-1985), in which the threat of a Communist Revolution was perennial and throughout which the government gave ANUC direct political participation at the local level in the executive branch and economic support. Using three newly digitized data sets of Colombian municipalities, I find that rather than leading to broad redistribution to the benefit of the peasantry, the reform instead led to an increase in targeted redistribution in terms of public jobs and lands. In particular, by matching the names of the peasant leaders to the beneficiaries of the land reform, evidence suggests that peasant leaders disproportionately benefited from land reform, especially in municipalities where the communist threat was higher. Finally, I find suggestive evidence that buying off the rebel leaders was an effective counter-revolutionary strategy as it led to fewer revolutionary activities after the support of ANUC was terminated (1972-1985).
15-11-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-44
JEL: H2, H44, H63, O54
This document examines the macro-economic performance of Colombia before pandemic (2015-2019) and then assess prospects over 2020-2024, with particular emphasis on fiscal stabilization. We first provide a long-term view and extract some of the fiscal characteristic of Colombia such as: i) directional persistence in tax and spending adjustments; and ii) searching for modular effect (building-blocks), given a complex "political-economy" that hair-cuts the proposed ambitious reforms. Then we turn to carry-out some public finance simulations regarding the required fiscal balance stemming from additional social expenditure and tax revenue efforts.
By highlighting public expenditure rigidities, associated mainly with decentralization andmounting pressure for additional social expenditure, we also discuss prospects of the new Fiscal Rule (under Law 2155 of 2021) focusing on anchors related to debt-ratio targets and primary balance requirements. We conclude with some recommendations regarding a "political economy" strategy in order to pursue several structural reforms under the new Administration of 2022-2026, where computing a so-called "Social Betas" could help in setting priorities.
04-11-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-43
JEL: N16, O47, O54
¿Cuáles son las causas fundamentales del crecimiento económico sostenido y de las diferencias de ingreso entre naciones? En este artículo se crea una nueva base de datos y construye un modelo para estudiar las transformaciones económicas ocurridas durante la Alta Edad Media que condujeron a la Revolución Industrial y a la Gran Divergencia. Con técnicas econométricas modernas, se explora las
conquistas mongolas del siglo XIII para indagar sobre el rol de la violencia, del comercio y de la tecnología en la transformación estructural de Eurasia desde la Edad Media hasta la Edad Moderna. Se muestra teórica y empíricamente cómo la violencia a gran escala y las nuevas oportunidades comerciales traídas por los mongoles permitieron a Europa Occidental alcanzar y superar los niveles de ingreso y capacidad tecnológica de las grandes civilizaciones así áticas. Más aún, se encuentra que los efectos de las conquistas mongolas persisten y se acentúan hasta entrado el siglo XIX. Por tanto, este evento podría considerarse como una causa fundamental del despegue de Europa y del ocaso de Asia. Así mismo, el apogeo y caída del Imperio Mongol sería un evento clave para comprender el tránsito del mundo maltusiano a un mundo con crecimiento económico y desigualdad entre regiones.
23-10-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-42
JEL: I11, I18, Y40
This document explores the heterogeneities in compliance with the isolation measures within the municipalities of Colombia that were treated with Ingreso Solidario program implemented as an unconditional transfer given to poor individuals to face the economic and health emergency caused by Covid-19. Using local mobility data, the announcement of payment of Ingreso Solidario, and effective treatment of the program, a differences-in-differences methodology was proposed under the spectrum of an event study for the first disbursement of the Ingreso Solidario program, this was made in order to find heterogeneities between groups of poorer and richer municipalities. The results point to the existence of heterogeneity in the compliance with isolation measures between the groups analyzed in the study.
22-10-2022
