Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2023-14
JEL: H55, H62, E62
In March of 2023, the Government filed a Bill that seeks to modify the Colombian pension system. The Bill contemplates a four-pillar scheme: a social transfer pillar named Solidario, a semicontributory pillar, a contributory pillar, and a voluntary savings pillar. This paper presents a summary of the Bill filled in Congress, followed by an analysis of its implications for fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability. As a result, we recommend that the contribution threshold to the public system should be limited to one minimum wage in order to reduce regressive subsidies and increase the stock of national savings. Additionally, we suggest that all the new contributions to the public system must be saved and should only be spent for the contributory pillar. This will promote the sustainability of the system in the long run. Finally, the savings fund should follow an investment statute that seeks to maximize profitability to reduce the
fiscal impact of the Bill.
14-05-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-13
JEL: D91, F22, J16
This paper analyzes the perceptions of migration by the native population from a gender perspective. Women in Latin America hold more negative perceptions towards migrants compared to men. To explain this gap, I study underlying mechanisms that potentially affect this relationship. The analysis indicates that women perceive greater vulnerability in their present and future circumstances and report lower levels of trust and solidarity with others, leading to more negative perceptions of migrants across different domains and a higher preference for anti-migration policies. I suggest taking into account these predisposing factors in public discussions on migration to effectively deliver a message that resonates with the native population and promotes better integration of migrants into society.
13-04-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-12
JEL: D23, L25, Z20
La versatilidad -la capacidad para desempeñar distintas funciones- puede ser una característica deseable para las firmas que compiten en múltiples y diversos entornos. Sin embargo, ser versátil puede significar un sacrificio importante en calidad, dado que la excelencia con frecuencia sólo es posible a través de la especialización. Adicionalmente, cuando la interacción estratégica con otras firmas supone oportunidades de cooperación, ser más versátil puede dar lugar a pagos de equilibrio más bajos, aun si no significa costos en calidad. Por lo tanto, el que la versatilidad sea un atributo deseable o no, es una cuestión que debe ser abordada empíricamente en cada contexto específico. En este trabajo definimos una medida de versatilidad observable que evaluamos en la temporada 2018-2019 de la liga española y en las temporadas 2018-1 a 2019-1 de la liga colombiana explotando la interacción jugada por jugada entre los jugadores. Específicamente, para cada equipo en contienda, contamos el número de sub-equipos de todos los tamaños posibles (2-11) que observamos interactuar durante la temporada para construir su perfil de versatilidad observable de 10 dimensiones. Encontramos que los equipos con un mayor número de sub-equipos grandes (con 4 o más jugadores en el caso de la liga española, y 3 o más en la colombiana) tienden a desempeñarse mejor. Calculamos un índice de versatilidad observable mediante un análisis de componentes principales (ACP) de los perfiles de 10 dimensiones y mostramos que este índice es un buen predictor del desempeño de los equipos.
12-04-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-11
JEL: L73, O13, Q23, Q57, R14
Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) is a forest management instrument based on a rational planning process on forest supply and the norms and regulations for the protection and sustainability of natural forests. In Colombia it has been identified as a strategy to avoid deforestation and to favor the economy of families living in the forests. However, timber harvesting of natural forests is currently carried out as a subsistence activity, generating low income and negative impacts on ecosystems. This document presents a Discrete-Time Bioeconomic Model of SFM, whose objective function is based on the economic impact on timber extraction yields of three species: Achapo (Cedrelinga cateniformis), Cabuyo (Eschweilera
coriacea) and Dormidero negro (Parkia discolor), located in the department of Guaviare. The results
shows that the maximum benefits from sustainable forest harvesting of the three species is achieved in an optimal 25-year span, with net benefits per hectare of 1,999,040 COP, for a planning horizon of 50 years. These results provide a technical basis harvesting authorizations and permits.
11-04-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-10
JEL: D7, H5, H7, I2
We examine how subnational partisan alignment influences corruption in clientelistic environments, focusing on the fabrication of “ghost” students to inflate education transfers to local governments in Colombia. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design, we find that partisan alignment between municipal mayors and departmental governors increases ghost students by 0.3 standard deviations, without improving genuine enrollment or student performance. Alignment also leads to more discretionary hiring, patronage-based outsourcing, and increased electoral fraud risk. The effects are strongest in municipalities with weaker institutions and entrenched clientelism. Alignment also raises the likelihood that mayors’ relatives are appointed to departmental posts and governors’ relatives to municipal posts, consistent with reciprocal patronage. These findings support the view that resource diversion benefits politicians with few benefits for local constituencies. Aligned politicians also experience better future electoral prospects, suggesting a breakdown in accountability. Our results highlight how clientelistic networks distort public service delivery, reinforcing the persistence of political corruption.
10-04-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-09
JEL: H55, J08, J32
This document analyses the implications of the pension and labor reforms presented to Congress by the Petro Administration (2022-2026). Such reforms pretend to establish a public cuasi-monopoly (under Colpensiones), deeping the perils of a PAYGO-System. In tandem, the labor reform turns more costly the wage contributions regarding night and holiday shifts and the severance payments, increasing the propensity towards labor informality. We present metrics related to labor informality as high as 85% (based on social security contributions through PILA), which reveal low probability of complying with minimum time of contributions (25 years) and amount of savings to gain access to an annuity. The fiscal marginal effort to substitute payroll taxes, currently representing 51%, amount to at least 1% of GPD. Finally, we explore alternatives to avoid poverty in retirement age, like the permanent "universal rent" and the temporary BEPs. But we conclude that the only way to reach a fiscal sustainable path is under a deeper contributory system based on market determinants, leaving as complementary the subsidy programs.
09-04-2023
