Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2023-26
JEL: E43, G15, H63
This study demonstrates that the adoption of a framework of national coverage numerical fiscal rules helped reduce sovereign bond yield spreads in a sample of 26 emerging countries between the period of 2000 and 2020. Through a dynamic panel data model, which allows for controlling endogeneity issues, it is found that the adoption of a fiscal balance rule reduces yield spreads by an average of 37.8 basis points. In turn, the presence of a debt rule has an effect on yield spreads by 40.1 basis points. Similarly, the countries in the sample that incorporate a combination of fiscal rules, in this case, balance and debt rules, have on average 54.5 basis points lower sovereign bond yield spreads. Fiscal rules function as instruments that generate credibility in a country's fiscal policy, aiding it in enhancing its access to financial markets in emerging economies.
26-08-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-25
JEL: E12, E44, E52, G21
The banking system, in its liquidity management, faces the need or excess of liquidity. In response, it turns to the central bank and encounters a liquidity premium, as the cost of liquidity exceeds the remuneration of liquid assets. This document presents an analytical, dynamic, and general equilibrium framework to evaluate and quantify the mechanisms of bank liquidity management on the economy and monetary policy in the case of aggregate liquidity disturbances. It is found that the bank system, when facing aggregate liquidity nees, ntroduces a margin between the remuneration of assets and households deposits, affecting real activity and welfare. This impact motivates a monetary policy response to liquidity needs, which, if not provided, exacerbates welfare losses. Finally, a price-stabiliing monetary policy reflects the "divine coincidence" and responds to liquidity needs by reducing the monetary policy interest rate in proportion to the liquidity premium.
25-08-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-24
JEL: C18, C51, P00
Politician characteristic regression discontinuity (PCRD) designs are a popular strategy when attempting to casually link a specific trait of an elected politician with a given outcome. However, recent research has revealed that this methodology often fails to retrieve the target causal effect¿a problem also known as the PCRD estimation bias. In this paper, I provide a new econometric framework to address this limitation in applied research. First, I propose a covariate-adjusted local polynomial estimator that corrects for the PCRD estimation bias provided all relevant confounders are observed. I then leverage the statistical properties of this estimator to propose several decompositions of the bias term and discuss their potential applications. Next, I devise a strategy to assess the robustness of the new estimator to omitted confounders that could potentially invalidate results. Finally, I illustrate these methods through an application: a PCRD aimed at evaluating the impact of female leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.
24-08-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-23
JEL: C01, C21, P48
This article presents a general framework for using continuity-based regression discontinuity designs as an identification strategy in multi-seat electoral contests. First, I extend singlewinner- close-race designs by developing precise definitions of electoral tightness in elections where multiple winners are possible. These narrowness measures can be used to formulate forcing variables for conducting regression discontinuity designs. Moreover, I show that it is possible to construct different running variables to identify different (local) causal effects. I further specialize my method to proportional election systems, the most prominent family of multi-seat assignment methods, covering its most common variations: the highest average methods and largest remainder algorithms. The proposed approach improves existing methodologies for causal inference on multi-seat systems in four dimensions: it relies on weaker identifying assumptions, estimated quantities have a clear interpretation as causal effects, it does not hinge on discretionary choices, and it is easier to scale into problems with many political entities and seats.
23-08-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-22
JEL: G21, G51, I30
Este artículo estudia cómo el impacto de la violencia en el consumo de los hogares esta mediado por el acceso a servicios financieros. Haciendo uso de un panel de datos con información de 3.354 hogares rurales en Colombia para los años 2010, 2013 y 2016, se estima el efecto que tiene la exposición a choques de violencia y cómo el acceso a servicios financieros media esta relación, a través de la implementación de un modelo de efectos fijos de hogar y tiempo. Mis resultados sugieren que los servicios financieros son mecanismos potenciales de cobertura ante choques de violencia. Se observa que un incremento de una desviación estándar en el número de ataques por parte de grupos armados llevan a una reducción de 4% en el consumo promedio de cada miembro del hogar. Sin embargo, para los hogares con acceso a servicios financieros no hay un efecto en el consumo producto de los choques de violencia.
22-08-2023
Documento CEDE 2023-21
JEL: C92, D91, H41
Using a laboratory experiment, we study the incentives of individuals to contribute to a public good that is provided if and only if the fraction of contributors reaches a certain threshold. We jointly vary the size of the group, the cost of contributing, the required threshold, and the framing of contributions (giving to the common pool, or not taking from the common pool). We find that a higher threshold makes individuals more likely to contribute. The effect is strong enough that in a small group, raising the required threshold increases the probability that the public good is provided. In larger groups, however, the effect disappears. At the same time, we do not find a consistent effect of framing on the probability of contributing or on the likelihood of success.
21-08-2023
