Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2022-23
JEL: G20, G21, G51, L86, L96, O16
The expansion of Internet access has facilitated the access to and usage of financial services. Nonetheless, it is not clear if these benefits have also manifested themselves in Colombia¿s rural municipalities, which historically have had reduced banking and Internet coverage. Utilizing data from MinTIC and the SFC between 2011-2020 and difference-in-difference and event study methodologies, this paper estimates the causal effect of an increase in Internet access on the financial inclusion rates in these municipalities. The expansion of Internet access is found to have a positive effect of a significant economic magnitude on financial inclusion. In particular, the introduction of the National Fiber Optic Project increased the financial inclusion index by 7.9%. Moreover, credits and deposits are especially impacted, with the amounts of these growing by 7.7% and 11.6% respectively. Additionally, the effect is concentrated in municipalities farther away from urban centers which exante present lower levels of banking and Internet coverage. These results offer evidence of the benefits of Internet access on the usage of financial services in mainly rural municipalities and contribute to public policy by demonstrating the value of Internet as a tool to foment financial inclusion.
23-07-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-22
JEL: G51, D91
We use a randomized experiment involving 7,029 late-paying clients of a large Colombian bank to compare the effects on loan delinquency of text messages that encourage repayment through different behavioral angles { increased attention, reciprocity, social norms, moral norms, and environmental and sustainability concerns. We find that receiving a behavioral message decreases borrowers' average likelihood to be late by 4%. The effects are more pronounced when messages leverage social norms. Heterogeneity analysis shows that our results are concentrated among late- paying borrowers with a good credit history. We also find evidence that customers who are late on unsecured loan products respond more to the messages. Our intervention provides novel evidence that behavioral messages are most effective when borrowers are marginally struggling to repay and have preferences to be on a good repayment track. In a second experiment pushing the same messages to 8,019 on-time borrowers, we find precisely estimated zero effects, suggesting that these types of messages may not be the right tool to prevent on-time borrowers from falling into loan delinquency.
22-07-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-21
JEL: I20, I21, I28, O15
We investigate the relationship between land dispossessions of peasants and the origin of the civil conflict in Colombia. Using a matching-pair instrumental variable approach, we show that the historical dispossession of peasants¿ lands by landlords that led to the rise of peasant grievances is associated with the activity of the rural guerrilla movement -Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC) - during the first stage of the Colombian civil conflict ( 1964-1985). We exploit the random variation in floods to identify the effect of p easants¿ land dispossessions during 1914-1946 on the rise of rural guerrilla movements. Using a novel municipal-level data set, the study documents that municipalities experiencing floods b etween 1914 and 1946 were substantially more likely to experience land dispossession than municipalities that did not. Floods temporarily worsened the conditions of the land and its value, facilitating the dispossession of peasant land by large landowners. We propose two mechanisms through which previous land dispossession resulted in the emergence of rebel-armed groups. On the one hand, the ideological cohesion stemming from radical liberals and communists exacerbated the grievances and helped to shape the political objectives of the rebel armed groups. On the other hand, exposure to prior violent events gave military training, access to weapons, and military experience to the rural population, that likely emboldened the formation of rebel groups.
21-06-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-20
JEL: H52, I21, I22
This article finds the impact of public spending on academic performance under different institutional contexts, considering a Colombian reform to the educational system as a quasi-natural experiment. The reform generated an exogenous change in each municipality¿s school spending from the Central Government and arbitrarily granted administrative decentralization to municipalities with more than one hundred thousand inhabitants. To find the causal effect of per-pupil expenditures on educational outcomes, I use the variation of per-student spending, the standardized test results for Saber11 and Saber-Pro, and the probability of entering higher education. Using an instrumental variable model, I conclude that an increase in per-student spending improves the standardized test results of secondary and higher education and the probability of entering higher education. Furthermore, through a regression discontinuity framework, I find that institutional arrangement improves the efficiency of providing education; significant heterogeneity exists among centralized and decentralized municipalities: autonomous municipalities use public resources more efficiently.
20-06-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-19
JEL: I21, I28, C21
¿Un refrigerio hace la diferencia en el proceso educativo? Este artículo presenta los impactos del Programa de Alimentación Escolar (PAE) de Colombia sobre indicadores educativos en el país. Las estimaciones utilizan información censal y explotan los diferentes niveles de exposición al programa por parte de los hogares entre 2012 y 2019, cuando ocurrió una masiva expansión del programa. Los resultados indican que el PAE aumenta la permanencia de los estudiantes en el sistema escolar y mejora el logro educativo. Los resultados señalan que un estudiante beneficiario del programa comparado con su hermano o hermana que no lo es, tiene 10% menor probabilidad de ausentarse y desertar del sistema educativo y 6% menor probabilidad de repetir grado. Además, aumenta en 25% la probabilidad de presentar la prueba Saber 11 (prueba que se toma al culminar la educación media), y en alrededor de 0.1 desviaciones estándar el puntaje en esa prueba. Así, el programa incentiva los estudiantes a asistir a la escuela, lo que incrementa los años cursados y el aprendizaje.
19-06-2022
Documento CEDE 2022-18
JEL: G32, G34
This paper examines the relationship between multiple large shareholder coalitions and the probability of completing a cross-border merger and acquisitions (M&As). Using different power distribution indicators based on Shapley-Shubik values for cooperative games for a sample of acquirers' firms from Latin America, our results suggest that a higher likelihood of coalitions among large shareholders increases the probability of completing a cross-border deal. This relationship is more pronounced in acquirer firms with more institutional investors and ownership stakes. We also find that multiple large shareholder coalitions are positively associated with the long-term operating performance of an acquirer firm involved in a cross-border deal. As a result, colluding blockholders in acquirer firms are more prone to attempt risky cross-border acquisitions. However, when they do, the acquisitions tend to be value-enhancing in the long term.
18-06-2022
