Eventos

Seminario CEDE - Jorge Bonilla

Short-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of respiratory diseases. This risk is higher during critical air quality events when episodes last for several days and are harmful to the most vulnerable groups. A common strategy in Latin America is temporarily adjusting transport policies to reduce emissions and the impact on people's health. Medellín, Colombia's second-largest city, and the Aburrá Valley Metropolitan Area have been implementing driving restrictions since 2017, which, unlike other cities, not only banned cars but also restricted the circulation of motorcycles and trucks. Restrictions that quickly became stricter for old vehicles. Using a two-way-fixed effects model, we empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the implemented plan between 2017 and 2019 on pollutant concentrations and examine the impact on vehicle trips, noise, and possible changes in regular on-road tests of vehicle environmental performance. Our results show that the implemented plan has reduced air pollution by 2%-24% for several pollutants. The red alerts, introduced with the strictest bans, showed the largest reduction. Particulate matter showed the most significant improvement in air quality. In general, reductions in air pollutant concentrations tend to be greater when restrictions apply to trucks or older vehicles and when bans cover more license plates. Vehicle trips and noise also declined, and there is some evidence of an increase in on-road vehicle testing. These findings suggest that introducing differentiated restrictions focalizing the most stringent bans on the most polluting vehicles is an effective policy to reduce air pollution during short-term episodes of poor air quality.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario PePe - Sandra Vilardy

Se presenta un análisis basado en el contexto de la institucionalidad ambiental, los nuevos desafíos que se abordan desde la poli-crisis, las apuestas del actual gobierno, las lecciones aprendidas y especialmente las reflexiones pendientes. Sandra Vilardy Quiroga es profesora del Área de Sostenibilidad de la Facultad de Administración de la Universidad de Los Andes. Es bióloga marina de formación profesional y doctora en ecología y medio ambiente. Su trabajo académico ha sido diverso pero se ha basado principalmente en el análisis de los sistemas socioecológicos y la resiliencia con énfasis en miradas territoriales, con especial interés en ecosistemas costeros y humedales, identificando las relaciones entre el flujos de servicios ecosistémicos y el bienestar humano, los conflictos ecológico-distributivos asociados a estas relaciones y de manera reciente los relacionados con la crisis de biodiversidad y climática desde el enfoque de la ecología política. Se ha desempeñado como profesora y decana de la Facultad de Ciencias Básicas de la Universidad del Magdalena; fue coordinadora científica y administrativa del proceso Colombia Anfibia en el Instituto Alexander von Humboldt y ha sido también Directora ejecutiva de la iniciativa Parques Nacionales Como Vamos. Se desempeñó como Viceministra de políticas y normalización ambiental del Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo sostenible. Ha sido miembro de varias juntas y comités directivos , así como también miembro del comité científico del Foro Nacional Ambiental. Actualmente es columnista de El Espectador.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Hoover Quitian

El artículo explora el efecto del consumo de tecnologías sanitarias sobre la probabilidad de morir, a diferentes niveles de deterioro del estado de salud de los individuos. Se emplearon registros de la base de datos de suficiencia, de la Unidad de Pago por Capitación, que cuenta con información de atenciones de aproximadamente 28 millones de colombianos, entre los años 2013 y 2019. Como estrategia de identificación, se utilizó el cuasi experimento generado por el cambio de los individuos de Entidad Aseguradora, realizado por el Sistema de Salud cuando decreta el cierre de la entidad por insolvencia. Los resultados sugieren que el efecto del consumo de tecnologías se reduce cuando los individuos no tienen afectaciones muy graves sobre su estado de salud y cuando su riesgo de morir es considerable.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario PePe - Guillermo Villamil

En el contexto del licenciamiento ambiental colombiano, la valoración económica ambiental comprende un conjunto de herramientas teóricas y metodológicas que brinda la economía para complementar y mejorar la calidad de los procesos de evaluación ambiental y a su vez permite fortalecer desde el sector público y privado la toma de decisiones. Este análisis busca determinar la relación entre los beneficios y los costos que se generan con la ejecución de un Proyecto, Obra o Actividad sujeta a licenciamiento. En este contexto, el proceso de evaluación económica ambiental propone una secuencia de pasos que inicia con: i) Selección de impactos significativos, para esto se pone a disposición el tablero de estandarización y jerarquización de impactos ambientales (https://www.anla.gov.co/01_anla/institucional-interno/gestion-del-conocimiento-y-la-innovacion/analitica-de-datos/tablero-control-jerarquizacion-de-impacto), en el que se pueden identificar según el sector, subsector económico y en diversas escalas regionales (municipio, departamento, zona y subzona hidrográfica, autoridad ambiental regional y áreas protegidas) los impactos más representativos además de aquellos que se presentan en territorio de forma acumulativa; ii) Cuantificación biofísica de los impactos identificados, iii) Análisis de internalización, y iv) Análisis costo beneficio de los impactos no internalizados para obtener indicadores económicos, que apoyan la definición objetiva de la viabilidad o no del proyecto.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario PePe - Jairo Santander

Despite a clear understanding of the factors driving deforestation and the acknowledged need to control it, tropical deforestation remains a significant social and environmental challenge. Public policy can play a crucial role in combating tropical deforestation, yet gaps in policy formulation, operationalisation, and implementation can hinder its effectiveness. There is currently a lack of detailed analysis on policy gaps, especially concerning tropical deforestation. Our study analysed the policy gaps in a deforestation frontier in the Colombian Amazon during the post-conflict period to enhance our understanding of why public policies might be inadequate in curbing deforestation. This analysis involved identifying potential gaps in the formulation, operationalisation, and implementation of a major national policy framework aimed at controlling deforestation in Colombia. To identify and delineate these policy gaps, we combined secondary literature on deforestation drivers, existing databases, institutional capacity analyses, and national statistics. Our findings indicate that land speculation, a power vacuum, the expansion of pastures, cattle ranching, and infrastructure development are driving tropical deforestation in the study area. Additionally, this process of deforestation is linked to systemic and structural challenges in institutional capacity, broadening policy gaps, such as the exclusion of the main drivers in policy formulation, a lack of local capacity and resources for policy implementation, diverging visions and preferences for regional development, centralisation, and policy obsolescence, which affect both policy operationalisation and implementation. Based on these identified gaps, we discuss potential policy interventions to address them in the study area and other tropical regions.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Víctor González-Jiménez

This paper shows that well-established biases in decision making under uncertainty generate poverty traps. A theoretical framework is developed to show that: i) probability weighting and ambiguity attitudes can lead individuals to systematically undervalue profitable investments, and ii) poverty exacerbates the consequences of these investment errors. The model predicts that poverty persists because these biases disproportionately discourage investment among poor individuals, while rich individuals continue to invest regardless. These theoretical predictions are validated using data from two experiments conducted on representative samples of American households.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Danilo Aristizabal

There is a close relationship between poverty and social and labor exclusion. I evaluated two ALMPs that targeted people who have difficulties in finding a formal job in a developing country. First, I analyze the effect of a training component of a labor intermediation policy (LIP) called Boost to Employment (BE) on the probability of finding a formal job for vulnerable job seekers in a developing country. I exploit the variation in the leniency among labor counselors as an instrument to approximate the probability that job seekers receive the training component. I also test which courses are the ones that helped job seekers to find formal jobs. I find that those workers who received the training component increased the probability of working in the formal sector by 21 percentage points one year after the implementation of the program compared to those workers who did not. The formal job benefits course seems to be driving my results. Second, I study the effect on labor market outcomes of a payroll tax cut for new hires of young workers under the age of 28 in an economy with a high binding minimum wage. I use exposure to wage rigidities to identify the effect. I measure an individual's exposure to wage rigidities as the gap between the median salary, in the city in which the individual lives, and the minimum wage set at the national level. I use a difference-in-difference model. I find that the effect of a payroll tax cut is asymmetric for youth who face labor markets with a binding minimum wage and those who do not.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario PePe - David Pérez-Reyna

Planteamos un modelo para analizar el mercado laboral colombiano, y en particular el efecto de la propuesta de reforma laboral. Este elemento es la base para poder analizar el impacto de otras reformas sobre la economía colombiana.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Nicole Fleskes

This paper studies how dealers provide liquidity in over-the-counter (OTC) markets during an acute crisis when they can choose their capacity: how fast they can execute orders and their inventories. I develop a search model of an OTC market in which trade between homogeneous dealers is centralized, but trade with investors is subject to search frictions proportional to dealer order execution rates. Dealers have positive bargaining power and charge intermediation fees to investors: dealers face a trade-off when choosing their capacity between their income from intermediation fees and capital gains, and the flow costs of their order execution rate and inventories. The model features a one time aggregate adverse liquidity shock to investors' private valuations. The more severe the liquidity shock, the lower the order execution rate dealers choose and the longer they wait to begin taking on inventories. Compared to a constrained planner, the existence of dealer bargaining power results in a double-sided hold-up problem that can be resolved in the steady state in a knife-edge case, but not out of the steady state following an aggregate liquidity shock. A calibration to the U.S. secondary corporate bond markets suggests that inefficiencies in dealer capacity results in larger welfare losses following a shock compared to the steady state.

12:30 pm

Universidad de los Andes