Eventos pasados

Podcast en vivo: '300 años de Adam Smith: siempre vigente, siempre terrenal'

Seminario CEDE - Alejandra Montoya

This paper uses a dynamic Roy model and data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to analyze the decision to pursue two-year or four-year college choices and estimate their associated net value. In this model, the net value varies across three dimensions of abilities: cognitive, socio-emotional, and mechanical, which are estimated using a measurement system. I focus on characterizing the average individual who would conclude that there was a schooling path different from the one she chose that would have led to higher net value. This classification is derived from comparing simulated net values, which consider potential earnings and costs, associated with each schooling path. The results provide valuable insights into the implications of credit constraints and regional characteristics on achieving the highest net value. In particular, short- and long-term credit constraints are important factors preventing people from achieving the highest net value as four-year graduates. Moreover, four-year and high school graduates finding higher net value in a two-year degree are more likely to come from and live in rural areas. Finally, there is evidence of a strong sorting for the cognitive and mechanical abilities but only weak sorting for the socioemotional ability.

First Colombian Conference on Fiscal Policy

Registration: forms.office.com/r/39KTkARrcp   AGENDA 8:15 - 8:30 Opening remarks. Juan Pablo Córdoba (CARF's President) and Peter Siegenthaler (World Bank) 8:30 - 9:15 Mark Aguiar (Princeton University) “Micro risks and (robust) pareto improving policies” 9:15 - 10:00 Juan José Ospina (Colombian Central Bank) "Credibility and bias: the case for implementing both a debt anchor and a balanced budget rule" 10:00 - 10:30 Break 10:30 - 11:15 Catalina Granda (Universidad de Antioquia) "The role of informality in tax policy cyclicality" 11:15 - 12:00 Guillermo Vuletin (World Bank) “The income and labor effects of individual income tax changes in Latin America: Evidence from a new measure of tax shocks” 12:00 - 13:30 Lunch 13:30 - 14:15 Leonardo Martínez (IMF) “Constrained efficient borrowing with sovereign default risk” 14:15 - 15:00 Paulina Restrepo (St Louis FED) “Natural resources and sovereign debt in emerging economies: A curse and a blessing” 15:00 - 15:30 Break 15:30 - 16:15 Andrés Zambrano (Universidad de los Andes, CARF) “Towards a fiscal potential GDP” 16:15 - 17:00 Tim Kehoe (University of Minnesota) “Default and interest rate shocks: Renegotiation matters” 17:00 - 17:15 Closing remarks. Marcela Eslava (Dean, Department of Economics, Universidad de los Andes) Download the full agenda to read the speaker biography and their paper here

Seminario CEDE - Mateo Uribe-Castro

We study the impact of the Panama Canal on the development of Canada’s manufacturing sector in the years from 1900 to 1939. Using newly digitized county-level data from the Census of Manufactures and a market-access approach, we exploit the plausibly exogenous nature of this historical episode to study how changes in transportation costs influence the location of economic activity and productivity dynamics. Our reduced-form estimates show that lowered shipping costs led to greater market integration of marginally productive Canadian counties with key markets both inside and outside of Canada. This development permitted the reallocation of production activity to places whose production levels had been inefficiently low before the Canal opened. A shift from the 25th to the 75th percentile in terms of gains in market access brought about by the opening of the Canal led to a 9% increase in manufacturing revenues and input expenditures. Productivity rose by 13%. These effects persist when general equilibrium effects are considered: the closure of the Canal in 1939 would have resulted in economic losses equivalent to 1.86% of GDP, chiefly as a result of the restriction of the country’s access to international markets. Altogether, these results suggest that the Canal substantially altered the economic geography of the Western Hemisphere in the first half of the twentieth century.

Seminario CEDE - Felipe Lozano

Over a two-week span in December 2007 a massive spike of prescription opioids surged suddenly into retail pharmacies in 78 counties in five Southeastern U.S. states. These “spike counties” experienced an average increase in opioid deliveries of 313\% over baseline, with one Mississippi county experiencing a 1300% increase. The magnitude of this surge was over 3.4 billion morphine milligram equivalent units - more than 147 million standard doses. The pattern of facts available is consistent with the hypothesis that Colombian drug cartels became suddenly unable to launder large amounts of physical cash at the end of 2007 at a time when their capacity to supply eastern US heroin markets was failing and therefore used their excess physical cash to acquire prescription opioid products which could then be diverted to the illicit drug market in the US east of the Mississippi River. Importantly, any relative increase in prescription opioids (manufactured with very tight therapeutic windows) in the illicit market would be expected to displace heroin at least partially (manufactured with varying potency which cannot be known prior to consumption), implying the spike in diversion amounted to an unplanned harm-reduction shock for prior heroin or other non-prescription opioid users. We estimate novel difference-in-differences models of substance-specific opioid mortality, using counties west of the Mississippi River as controls, and the geographic distance to a spike county as the intensity of treatment. We find that in the two years following the shock, there were fewer deaths from heroin and all non-prescription opioid mortality in localities up to 200 miles (driving distance) from spike counties, with benefits becoming generally smaller and statistically insignificant beyond that point. We argue that these reductions can be directly attributed to the diversion and account for 448 lives saved in the spike counties’ vicinity per year, or nearly 30% of heroin deaths in those areas.

Seminario CEDE - CESED | Benjamin Lessing

If states strive to establish monopolies on the legitimate use of force, why is criminal governance---gang rule---over civilians so common and persistent, especially in urban zones within easy reach of state forces?  How have the resulting “duopolies of violence” survived decades of aggressive policing? Why do drug-retailing gangs often govern without taxing their subjects at all?  ``Market-for-Protection'' models of state formation and that assume competition among symmetric, would-be monopolists provide limited traction on these questions. Instead, I develop a public-goods model where state and criminal governance overlap, and in which each stands to benefit the other actor. I adapt  Mcguire and Olson’s (1996)  model of stationary banditry by including a second bandit---the gang---and, in an extension, a drug market in which gang governance (and taxation) affect drug profits by winning (losing) residents' loyalty. Under some conditions, the state prefers criminal duopoly to Weberian monopoly: if gangs' relative costs of governance are sufficiently low, or if they can draw on illicit drug profits to finance governance. I analyze equilibria in which state repression of trafficking incentivizes gangs to channel drug profits into governance and reduce taxes on residents, indirectly benefiting the state enough that it prefers duopoly. Even if partially offset by the political costs to elected officials of criminal governance, these underlying fiscal benefits help explain the persistence of duopolies of violence over generations.

Conferencia: Dinámica entre la economía, las pensiones y el mercado de capitales

Panelistas: Johanna Martinez Burgos - Gerente de Portafolio Skandia Fiduciaria. Johanna es MBA Inalde Business School con Especialización en Mercado de Capitales y Doble titulación en la Universidad del Rosario como Profesional en Finanzas y Economista. Encargada de la gestión de los diferentes fondos administrados en la fiduciaria según el perfil de riesgo y el horizonte de tiempo de cada uno. Análisis y seguimiento de los mercados tanto locales como internacionales en activos de renta fija y renta variable con el fin de determinar las oportunidades que permitan maximizar la rentabilidad de cada portafolio según su política de inversión. Catorce años de experiencia en el mercado de capitales. Luz Stella Dueri - Gerente de Portafolios Obligatorios en AFP Skandia Colombia. Luz Stella está a cargo del proceso de inversión de los fondos y del equipo que ejecuta las estrategias. Anteriormente dentro de Skandia, se encargó de inversiones alternativas y el manejó el riesgo cambiario de los portafolios de inversión. Previo a este cargo, fue directora de la mesa de divisas en una comisionista de bolsa y antes trabajó como trader senior en AFP Porvenir. Fue directora de Productos Estructurados en Bancolombia y trader de la mesa de divisas. Participó durante tres años en del Comité Intergremial de Autorregulación Mercado de Divisas AMV, donde se diseñó el esquema de autorregulación voluntaria de divisas. Fue miembro de la Junta Directiva de la Cámara de Divisas. Luz Stella es Executive MBA de Escuela de Negocios de la Universidad Politécnica de Cataluña e Ingeniera Industrial de la Universidad Javeriana con una experiencia de 22 años en el mercado de capitales. Modera nuestro profesor de cátedra Jhon Jiménez, Ph.D en Finanzas, SMC University. Magister en finanzas corporativas, CESA. Economista de la Universidad de los Andes. Fecha: lunes 15 de mayo de 6:00 p.m. a 8:50 p.m. Lugar: ML-603.  

Seminario CEDE - Walter Sosa Escudero

The ‘paradox of progress’ is an empirical regularity that associates more education with larger income inequality. Two driving and competing factors behind this phenomenon are the convexity of the ‘Mincer equation’ (that links wages and education) and the heterogeneity in the returns to education, as captured by quantile regressions. We propose a joint least-squares and quantile regression statistical framework to derive a decomposition to evaluate the relative contribution of each explanation. We apply the proposed decomposition strategy to the case of Argentina 1992 to 2015.

Seminario PePe (Políticas Públicas) - José Leibovich

Con las perspectivas futuras de desarrollo económico y social de Colombia, la evolución demográfica y los escenarios de precio del café, ¿podremos contar con población suficiente que se dedique a la caficultura en el año 2050? En esta investigación se resuelve esta pregunta. Como estrategia principal para adelantar el trabajo se identificaron los patrones demográficos de la población cafetera entre 2005 y 2019, con el fin de proyectar lo que sucederá en las próximas tres décadas. En primer lugar, se analizaron los indicadores de transición demográfica y bono demográfico de la población en los departamentos cafeteros, para luego, estimar los indicadores de mortalidad, fecundidad y migración con registros administrativos específicos para la población cafetera. Con los estimadores encontrados y bajo algunos supuestos razonables sobre la evolución del ingreso cafetero, el área sembrada en café y el nivel de pobreza departamental, se proyectó el número de productores e integrantes de los hogares cafeteros que se dedicará a la caficultura hasta 2050. Con los escenarios planteados se estimó que a 2050 aún se contará con un número importante de población que se dedique a la caficultura, pero con pérdidas con respecto a la situación actual. El número de productores que actualmente es de 540.362 decrecerá a 492.523 en un escenario optimista o a 382.636 en un escenario pesimista. Lo que significaría una pérdida de 48 mil productores en el primer caso o 158 mil en el segundo. En consecuencia, la población de los hogares cafeteros que en la actualidad es de alrededor de 1.782.831 personas, se proyectó entre un intervalo de 1.409.358 (acorde con la estructura poblacional del primer escenario) y 1.243.485 personas (acorde con el segundo).