El Informe Nacional de Competitividad (INC) 2024-2025 nos invita a construir juntos una visión de futuro: ¿cuáles son las tendencias globales en las que se enmarcan nuestras oportunidades de desarrollo?, ¿qué tenemos que hacer para transformarnos y aprovecharlas?, ¿cuál es el país que construiremos con este esfuerzo conjunto? En el INC 2024-2025 identificamos tres macrotendencias —cambio demográfico, cambio tecnológico y cambio climático— que nos motivan a diseñar acciones y estrategias para materializar dicha visión compartida.

Terminations of health plans are common in managed care systems around the world. This paper examines how to reassign consumers to incumbent insurers after such terminations. We propose an equilibrium model of competition in which insurers can respond to the reassignment rules through their provider networks. The setting is Colombia where the largest health insurer was terminated by the government in December 2015 and where insurers compete mainly on provider network breadth.

What drives opposition to affirmative action policies? We test whether individuals' college admissions outcomes, relative to their expectations, influence their attitudes toward affirmative action policies and inequality more broadly. Using a retrospective survey, we find that disappointed individuals---those who were admitted to fewer schools than anticipated---believe that affirmative action played an outsized role in their admissions outcomes, have the lowest support for affirmative action policies, and are more willing to donate to anti-affirmative action organizations.

This study examines the relationship between land inequality and tax collection. Contrary to traditional models that emphasize the redistributive role of taxation, we focus on its role in providing public goods that help develop markets, increasing productivity--i.e. enforcement of property rights, coordination, roads, electricity, etc.

We estimate the labor and health effects of the menopause transition for U.S. women. Using data from the NLSYW and the SWAN and applying an event study methodology which exploits the individual-level variation in the time of menopause, we find that women undergoing this transition have a lower probability of employment of almost 20 percentage points, and a higher probability of working part-time if they remain employed. We do not find significant impacts on their monthly earnings or hourly wage.

This paper examines the impact of Internet expansion on banking competition and credit access in rural Colombia. Using a staggered rollout of the National Fiber Optic Program from 2013 to 2016, we analyze the effects of broadband availability on public and private bank lending. We find that Internet connectivity reduced loan disbursements from the state-run Banco Agrario de Colombia (BAC) while increasing private bank lending, particularly for small enterprises. The shift was initially driven by reduced information frictions and later reinforced by new private bank entry.

This paper evaluates a scalable psychosocial intervention designed to improve economic outcomes among individuals exposed to trauma and displacement. Guided Mental Experiencing (GME) is a group-based program that trains participants to construct vivid, emotionally coherent simulations of future scenarios. Motivated by a conceptual framework linking trauma to impairments in episodic future simulation, we test GME in two randomized controlled trials. In Ethiopia, where GME was delivered to newly arrived refugees, it increased employment, hours worked, and well-being.

In this paper we propose a theory to investigate the importance of investment-specific technical change (ISTC) in shaping the short run response of macroeconomic aggregates to energy price shocks. In absence of ISTC, aggregate energy efficiency in an economy (i.e, the amount of energy use per unit of capital) responds to changes in energy prices.

Adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices that can reduce land degradation and buffer households vis-a-vis intensifying weather fluctuations is notably low in sub-Saharan Africa, and one underexplored constraint in a context of thin labor markets and restrictive gender norms is the ability to optimally allocate labor within a spousal unit.  This randomized trial in rural Ethiopia explores the salience of this constraint in the context of a bundled intervention providing training and inputs to encourage uptake of fruit trees intercropped with home gardens, and fertilized with compost.

A pesar de que los cierres de las escuelas son frecuentes y afectan de manera importante los resultados educativos de los niños, la evidencia respecto a cómo proteger el logro educativo de los niños en esos contextos es aún escasa. Este artículo explora el impacto de entregar alimentación escolar para consumo en casa como una alternativa para proteger el logro educativo de los niños cuando las escuelas están cerradas.