Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2025-26
JEL: J31, J50, O54
We measure firms’ wage-setting power in 16 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Exploiting variation in firms’ exposure to trade and exchange rates, we generate shocks to labor demand to trace out firm-level labor supply curves and quantify labor market power. We estimate an inverse labor supply elasticity of 0.82, implying that workers receive 55 cents per additional dollar produced. Wage-setting power is significantly higher among firms in countries with lower union density, limited collective bargaining, and no unemployment protection. This underscores the role of labor market institutions in shaping firms’ wagesetting power and the distribution of the gains from trade.
26-08-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-25
JEL: D81, H43, H54
The social discount rate is a parameter used to assess and compare the intertemporal economic costs and benefits of projects, programs, or public policies (PPPs). In Colombia, the oficial rate was estimated by Piraquive et al. (2018), drawing on the framework of Harberger (1969a). That estimate does not explicitly incorporate the risk inherent in PPPs. Some exhibit Iow exposure to risk, whereas others are riskier because their benefits are correlated with the economic cycle. This study proposes a model to estimate a Risk-Adjusted Social Discount Rate (TSDAR) for Colombia based on the extent to which a PP P is exposed to the economic cycle. The model is calibrated using national accounts data and is compared with the work of Harberger (1969a). The results indicate that the TSDAR increases with risk and risk aversion, but may follow a declining trajectory under scenarios of Iow growth and high risk aversion. For 2025, a project whose benefits are correlated with the economic cycle should be appraised using discount rates ranging from 4.95 % 6.09 % in year one to 5.85%—7.07% in year thirty, rather than the oficial rate of 9 %.
15-08-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-24
Corrupción: Un periódico de ayer. La demanda de medios de comunicación tras escándalos de corrupción
JEL: D02, D73, K42
¿La gente se informa más tras conocer un caso de corrupción? En este trabajo indago si tras un escándalo de corrupción, la ciudadanía se informa mejor, y cómo esto repercute en su capacidad de reconocer y denunciar casos de corrupción. Para esto exploro los efectos a través de un estudio de eventos alrededor de la fecha en que salen a la luz 28 escándalos de corrupción en países de América Latina. Los resultados sugieren que los ciudadanos se informan menos tras los escándalo de corrupción de medios de comunicación tradicionales, y en su lugar, buscan más en las redes sociales, posiblemente porque estas últimas ofrecen la posibilidad de denunciar informal y anónimamente, haciendo parte de un colectivo que rechaza la corrupción, en contraste con los medios tradicionales, en donde el problema se percibe desde la individualidad y sin posibilidad de que el ciudadano materialice su rechazo. Además, encuentro que a los 15 días de los escándalos, disminuye el reporte y disposición de denuncia de los casos de corrupción, debido a que la ciudadanía es cautivada por la noticia cuando se produce, lo que genera expectativas normativas inmediatas sobre la corrupción, pero no es suficiente para generar el cambio de actitudes y el problema es olvidado a las dos semanas.
24-07-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-23
JEL: L12, C33, D42, G20
This article analyzes the establishment ofthe colonial order in New Granada (16th—18th centuries) by comparing four territorial trajectories, characterized according to the socioeconomic complexity of pre-Hispanic societies and factor endowments, which shaped interactions between colonizers and native populations. The territorial trajectories correspond to: (i) the undiboyacense highlands, where pre-Hispanic institutions were co-opted to establish labor coercion regimes such as encomienda and mita. In these territories, following the demographic collapse of the ndigenous population, a system of large haciendas with high land concentration was consolidated; (ii) the Pacific mining regions, where the scarcity of indigenous population and the presence of gold mines fostered the establishment of a gold extraction system based on enslaved labor, (iii) Antioquia and the Santanderes, where there was little presence of precious metals but high agricultural potential, which favored the expansion of the agricultural frontier and the formation of haciendas that combined indigenous labor under encomienda with mestizo workers; and (iv) the Caribbean Coast, where Spanish presence was limited to military enclaves, with predominantly warlike interactions with the native population and weak institutional presence of colonial power. The research highlights the regional heterogeneity of the colonial process, which produced different legacies in terms of inequality, land tenure, and local power structures.
23-07-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-22
JEL: N96, O43, O54
This article examines the repercussions of the establishment of the colonial order in New Granada between the mid-17th and late 18th centuries. It argues that Spanish colonization shaped an economy heavily dependent on gold mining, which structured foreign trade and conditioned agricultural and artisanal production, subordinated to the needs of the mining centers. Throughout the 18th century, the intensification of this production coincided with greater fiscal and political control by the Crown, within the framework of the Bourbon reforms. Regarding labor, there was a transition from coercive forms—such as the encomienda and slavery—to semi-free regimes with Iow wages, the form and value of which varied by region, sector, and occupation. This process also entailed an ethnic recomposition of the labor force, with an increase in mestizos and poor whites in the face of a declining indigenous population. The result was a deeply unequal society, where ownership of land, slaves, and mines was restricted and hierarchical. Finally, the colonial state had an uneven presence, particularly limited in territories with high racial segregation and scarce provision of public goods.
22-07-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-21
JEL: H55, J48, D53
Los sistemas de pensiones de capitalización individual enfrentan desafíos globales en la oferta y demanda de productos de retiro de carácter vitalicio. En respuesta, se han propuesto distintos esquemas de desacumulación encaminados a fomentar su participación dentro de las distintas modalidades de retiro. Por medio de un conjunto de simulaciones de Montecarlo, el presente trabajo evalúa cuantitativamente los esquemas de Tontinas Modernas y Separación Vertical en el mercado de productos de retiro de Colombia usando datos anonimizados del Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad. Los resultados de las simulaciones muestran que las Tontinas Modernas elevan en promedio las anualidades recibidas por los afiliados en un 9,8% y 9,2 %, y reducen su costo fiscal asociado en 4,1% y 4,7% para hombres y mujeres, respectivamente. Mientras que la Separación Vertical - esquema mixto entre las Tontinas Modernas y los seguros de longevidad- logra mitigar la alta volatilidad que presentan los créditos derivados de las dinámicas de mortalidad de la cohorte. Estos resultados son un valioso insumo para intervenciones políticas en el sistema pensional colombiano, considerando aspectos financieros, fiscales y de bienestar social.
21-07-2025
