Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2025-02
JEL: F17, F51
In just over ten years trade between Colombia and Venezuela vanished due to diplomatic tensions between both nations and the economic crisis in Venezuela. This study examines the impact of political disruptions, particularly stemming from Colombia's Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States in 2009, on Colombian exports to Venezuela. Employing a gravity model incorporating time-varying and country-pair fixed effects, this research forecasts trade flows and compares them to the observed export data. While predicted exports mirror the observed data during most of the series, since 2010 both trends have deviated significantly. Between 2010 and 2015 losses amounted to $6bn, as only 65% of predicted trade took place. In contrast, Colombian exports to other partners in the region maintained an upward trajectory.
12-01-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-01
JEL: F10, F14, F15
This paper examines the impact of the Colombia-Korea Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on trade flows following its entry to force, sanctioned by the Colombian government in 2016. Employing a structural gravity model of trade and synthetic control methods, it estimates trade creation and trade diversion effects at both aggregate and sectoral levels. Results suggest that, while the FTA did not significantly impact overall trade flows, Colombia experienced a notable trade creation effect, with a 54% increase in exports, particularly in agricultural products and heavy metals. In contrast, Korea saw a 28% decline in its trade volume, primarily due to reduced sales of automotive, and industrial and electronic machinery. Evidence also points to null trade diversion effects among the FTA members, which is consistent with expectations given the low economic interdependence between the two countries, as trade flows with their usual regional partners have been sustained.
11-01-2025
Documento CEDE 2024-49
JEL: G21, O12, O13, Q12, Q14, Q54
Los sistemas de reportes de crédito se han convertido en una herramienta de uso generalizado para determinar la calidad crediticia de futuros prestatarios. Este artículo estudia las implicaciones para el acceso al crédito de usar dichos sistemas en contextos donde choques exógenos y transitorios afectan el ingreso y la capacidad de pago. Usando datos administrativos novedosos con casi la totalidad de préstamos formales a productores de café en Colombia junto con datos de cerca de 1,200 estaciones de lluvia, se muestra que los choques climáticos transitorios llevan a un menor repago de los préstamos, a menores puntajes crediticios y a rechazos más frecuentes de futuras solicitudes de crédito. Adicionalmente, se presenta evidencia de que el ingreso de los productores afectados y su capacidad de pago se recuperan más rápido de los choques que su acceso al crédito. Esto implica que estos productores pierden la posibilidad de adquirir préstamos a pesar de que tienen la capacidad para pagarlos. Los seguros, los esquemas de pago contingentes o la inclusión de información sobre choques exógenos en los modelos de puntajes crediticios tienen el potencial de aliviar el problema.
09-12-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-48
JEL: G51, D91, F22, D83
We conducted a telephonic survey experiment with 2,115 Venezuelan migrants to examine how their perceptions of Colombian’s social acceptance influence their engagement with the financial system. We find that 66% of the subjects we interviewed underestimate the extent to which natives are open towards migrants. We then show that providing accurate information reduces belief errors by 23 percentage points. This correction increases migrants’ willingness to interact with the financial system. In particular, individuals who initially underestimated Colombian’s acceptance of migrants are 15% more likely to visit a bank and request financial information in the next two months relative to the control group. These individuals also show a 12% increase in the willingness to open a digital wallet and an 18% increase in the willingness to open a savings account. These effects are concentrated among individuals who have not experienced episodes of discrimination in Colombia. We find no effects on the willingness to apply for a loan or an insurance product, consistent with the idea that supply barriers play a significant role for the financial inclusion of vulnerable populations. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we show that the increased willingness to engage with the financial system is driven by belief updating. In a short follow-up survey six months later, we find that belief corrections persist over time, and while we are underpowered to detect significant behavioral effects, the patterns remain consistent with the baseline results. Our findings highlight that misperceptions about native’s social acceptance of migrants can drive self-exclusion from the financial system.
08-12-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-47
JEL: J24, O13, Q52, Q56
This paper examines the impact of the green transition on the Colombian labor market. Using a task-based approach and data from the 2022 Colombian Household Survey, we find that approximately 22.6% of Colombian employment is linked to green tasks, with 15.9% directly affected by the green transition. While these figures are in line with global estimates, most jobs will not change significantly. Green jobs are concentrated among men, urban residents, and higher-educated workers with STEM degrees in managerial roles, who also earn more and are located at the top of the income distribution. In addition, the tasks and skills of occupations of workers with a lower prevalence of jobs limit their mobility to green jobs. This suggests a need for targeted training programs to facilitate the transition of non-green workers to green occupations, given the limited transferability of skills between these types of jobs.
07-12-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-44
JEL: D83, J16, Q51, Q53, Q54, Q56
La degradación ambiental representa uno de los mayores desafíos para las políticas públicas, con el Sur Global especialmente vulnerable a sus efectos. En países en desarrollo, las mujeres y las niñas suelen llevar una carga desproporcionada del cambio climático y la contaminación del aire en comparación con los hombres y los niños. La literatura internacional indica que las mujeres tienden a estar más preocupadas por el medio ambiente y a adoptar prácticas sostenibles; sin embargo, estos aspectos han sido poco explorados en el Sur Global. Este estudio examina las diferencias de género en conocimiento, actitudes y prácticas ambientales entre estudiantes de secundaria en Colombia. Los mecanismos detrás de estas diferencias aún no han sido investigados a fondo en América Latina. Nuestros resultados confirman que las niñas están significativamente más preocupadas por el medio ambiente y sienten una mayor responsabilidad frente al cambio climático (8—10 p.p.). Además, encontramos que las niñas muestran mayor concientización y familiaridad hacia la contaminación del aire en interiores (8,5—9 p.p.), en línea con investigaciones previas que se enfocaban en la exposición de las niñas a este tipo de contaminación. Estos hallazgos ofrecen insumos clave para el diseño de políticas educativas incluyentes con el potencial de empoderar a los estudiantes de países en desarrollo frente al cambio climático.
03-12-2024
