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This paper presents a new approach to decompose the effects of climate change on agriculture into the direct effect of a change in climate conditions and the effect of imperfect climate adaptation. We first provide a theoretical framework showing that to capture both effects, a regression should model agricultural outcomes as a function of both the change in expected weather conditions and its absolute value. The former captures the direct effect, which may be positive or negative, while the absolute value accounts for the fact that any deviation in expected weather, regardless of its direc

In this paper, we estimate the causal impact of police presence on crime using a structural discrete-choice model of criminal location choice. Our approach combines credible quasi-experimental variation in police patrols—induced by emergency calls unrelated to crime—with a behavioral model of offender decision-making, allowing us to estimate deterrence effects and simulate policy counterfactuals. In our structural model, offenders choose locations based on potential rewards and the risk of apprehension, proxied by police presence.

This paper develops a framework to integrate demographic change into climate policy analysis. We build an overlapping-generations climate-economy model with a rich demographic structure, allowing population growth and survival probabilities to vary over time. These features endogenously determine the age composition of society and shape aggregate preferences over time.