Eventos pasados

Seminario PePe (políticas públicas) - Daniel Gómez

La Política para la Reactivación y el Crecimiento Sostenible e Incluyente tiene por objetivo desarrollar capacidades en los hogares, el aparato productivo el marco institucional y el desarrollo digital para que, en el corto plazo, el país pueda retomar la ruta de desarrollo que estaba recorriendo cuando fue golpeado por el COVID-19 y que, en el largo plazo, transite hacia un crecimiento más sostenible e incluyente que además tenga la habilidad para responder adecuadamente a choques futuros de gran impacto. En este sentido, la política propone en diferentes frentes acciones integrales, complementarias y sostenibles en el tiempo, y presenta el plan de reactivación Nuevo Compromiso por el Futuro de Colombia propuesto por el Gobierno para ser adelantado con la colaboración del sector privado en los próximos años. El primer frente, hogares, propone acciones encaminadas a vacunar a la población y lograr inmunidad al COVID-19 (incluye la adquisición, almacenamiento, distribución y administración de una vacuna segura y eficaz atendiendo criterios de priorización que garanticen un acceso equitativo a toda la población); a reducir el incremento de la pobreza y la vulnerabilidad económica de los hogares, y a mitigar la desacumulación de capital humano que ha acentuado la pandemia. El segundo frente, sector productivo, propone acciones para reforzar su capacidad para transitar hacia una producción más sostenible y sofisticada, creando empleo e internacionalizándose. El tercer frente, marco institucional, propone acciones para reforzar las capacidades institucionales necesarias para responder efectivamente a un proceso de reactivación. El cuarto y último frente, desarrollo digital, propone acciones para acelerar, complementar y fortalecer los habilitadores digitales.

Seminario CEDE - Michael Weintraub

Governments across the developing world rely on their armed forces for domestic policing operations. Advocates of these “mano dura” (iron fist) policies view them as necessary to control crime, while detractors claim they undermine human rights. We experimentally evaluate a military policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, the country’s third largest city and among its most violent. The intervention involved recurring, intensive military patrols targeting crime hot spots, randomly assigned at the city block level. Using administrative crime and human rights data, surveys, a conjoint survey experiment, a costly behavioral measure, qualitative interviews, and firsthand observations from civilian monitors, we find some suggestive evidence that military policing reduces crime, but only on days and times when soldiers are physically present on the streets. Despite these temporally circumscribed effects, we find strong evidence of increased demand for more aggressive military involvement in policing and other aspects of governance, including increased support for military coups. We also find some suggestive evidence of increased human rights abuses committed by police officers in particular. Finally, we observe a large, significant, and lasting increase in citizens’ reports of witnessing crime, and a correspondingly large, significant, and lasting increase in their willingness to report crimes to the authorities. We interpret this as evidence of increased vigilance by citizens and increased co-production of security not just between the military and the police, but between civilians and the authorities as well.

Webinar | ¿Invertir en bolsa puede llegar a ser una segunda fuente de ingresos?

Seminario Pepe (políticas públicas) - Ahorro sin barreras en Colombia

Con el objetivo de conseguir que la población de América Latina y el Caribe ahorre para su vejez, el BID puso en marcha el Laboratorio de Ahorro para el Retiro en Colombia, Chile, México y Perú, en 2016. Esta iniciativa busca soluciones innovadoras para fomentar el ahorro mediante intervenciones basadas en la economía del comportamiento y uso de nuevas tecnologías, con el fin de generar evidencia confiable a través de evaluaciones de impacto rigurosas.    Este evento, co-organizado por la Universidad de los Andes y el BID, se enfocará en los aprendizajes del Laboratorio y sus implicaciones de política pública en el caso de Colombia, donde se llevó a cabo cuatro intervenciones. Se aprovechará la conversación para repensar el alcance de estos aprendizajes, aplicables a la promoción de autoaseguramiento de trabajadores de plataformas digitales y a la contribución a la seguridad social.   El evento contará con presentaciones de Oliver Azuara, Economista sénior de la División de Mercados Laborales del BID, y Gustavo Caballero, Consultor de la División de Mercados Laborales del BID, seguido de un panel de políticas públicas integrado por Alice Gutiérrez Stanley, Directora de Negocio Mandatorio de SURA Asset Management, Juan Miguel Villa, Presidente de Colpensiones, Óscar Becerra, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes, y Luz Magdalena Salas, Departamento de Economía de Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. El evento será en español y contará con interpretación simultánea al inglés.

Seminario WinEED-LAERE-EfD-REES

Seminario CEDE - Brenda Samaniego

In this paper, we estimate the effects of a labor market flexibilization policy that allowed part-time contributions to the social security system in Colombia, a country with high levels of informality. We evaluate the impact of the reform along various margins, with a special focus on the effects on formal employment since increasing formality was among the reform’s main goals. Using household survey data, we find that the reform increased the probability of new contributions to the social security system within the population targeted by the reform: low-wage, part-time workers. Then, using administrative data and exploiting cross-city and industry variation in take-up, we argue that the reform is associated with a 1.6 percent increase in formal employment. This increase is due to a sharp increase in full-time and part-time formal job creation. We find a small negative effect on mean wages (0.3% decline), consistent with a rise in the use of low-skill, part-time work.

Seminario CEDE - Oskar Nupia

It is a well-established fact that heat exacerbates irritability and anger, which in turns affects human behavior. Using municipality-level data for the 2016 Plebiscite in Colombia that sought to ratify the Peace Agreement between the state and the country’s main guerilla group, we present evidence that heat shocks affected voters’ behavior. We find that those municipalities exposed to a heat shock during plebiscite day had a higher vote share against the Agreement. To understand the mechanisms behind this result, we exploit municipality-level information on both the political context and the exposition to the most divisive elements of the Agreement. The impact of heat on the plebiscite results was mediated by high exposure to violence, low support for the main opposition party of the Peace Agreement (discontent with the ruling government), and the presence of coca crops.

Seminario Pepe (políticas públicas) - Luis Omar Herrera

The new millennium brought with it a new challenge: Students reaching higher education were not only greater in number, they were also less prepared than their predecessors. This caused a sharp deterioration in the quality of the entire higher education system, which in turn affected enrollment and graduation rates. Colombia faced this challenge with severely scarce economic resources, but the Ministry of Education designed a plan to keep students in higher education and eventually increased the overall enrollment rate from 20% in 2002 to over 42% in 2010. One of the tools used to implement this plan was the System for the Prevention and Analysis of School Dropouts in Higher Education (SPADIES). This software dashboard facilitates the collection, analysis, and visualization of student data. Spadies was instrumental in allowing information to flow easily among all the agents.  This paper provides evidence that SPADIES was vital to achieving higher educational attainment outcomes across the country. Using a differences-in-differences approach, I find that SPADIES reduced the probability of dropping out by 1.2% (impact of 4.35%), increased the probability of graduating by 0.6% (impact of 1.3%), and increased the probably of graduating on-time by 0.6% (impact of 1.9%). I also find that the number of transitions (i.e. student status changes from absent or dropout to enrolled) decreased 3.4% (impact of 48.4%), and the average duration of a student's gap in enrollment decreased 0.2 semesters (impact of 14.4%).

Seminario CEDE - Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economicepidemiological model of international production and trade networks and calibrate the model to 65 countries. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries. Ver documento