The FAO-GAEZ productivity data are widely used in Economics. However, the empirical literature rarely discusses measurement error. We use two proxies to derive novel analytical bounds around the effect of agricultural productivity in a setting with nonclassical measurement error. These bounds rely on assumptions that are weaker than the ones imposed in empirical studies and exhaust the information contained in the first two moments of the data.

Standards of living were roughly constant before 1800, almost everywhere. In the early 19th century, English-speaking countries began a process of sustained economic growth that continues today. We document that this rise in living standards—first observed in Great Britain and the United States—is now a global phenomenon. Across countries, we observe four robust patterns along the development path: (i) a reallocation of labor out of agriculture, (ii) a demographic transition, (iii) rising human capital, and (iv) a U-shaped trajectory of female labor force participation.