We explore the phenomenon of "jobless industrialization" in late-industrializing countries.

Can radio campaigns affect fertility? This paper examines the impact of a national radio campaign promoting family planning clinics in late 1960s Colombia on the country's rapid fertility decline. The campaign, initiated by Profamilia in 1969, provided information about the location of clinics without providing detailed contraceptive information. Using data from the full count 1973 census and information on clinic locations and radio programs, the study leverages exogenous variation in radio signal strength to estimate the campaign's effect on fertility.

This paper examines the link between industrial production and the sentiment expressed in natural language survey responses from U.S. manufacturing firms. We compare several natural language processing (NLP) techniques for classifying sentiment, ranging from dictionary-based methods to modern deep learning methods. Using a manually labeled sample as ground truth, we find that deep learning models--partially trained on a human-labeled sample of our data--outperform other methods for classifying the sentiment of survey responses.

Recent research in economic history has unearthed previously unknown facts about the long-term trends in inequality. We now have, for at least some areas of Europe, continuous time series of key inequality indicators from ca. 1300. Most of these series have resulted from the research conducted by the ERC-funded project EINITE – Economic Inequality across Italy and Europe 1300-1800 and by its follow-up project, SMITE – Social Mobility and Inequality across Italy and Europe 1300-1800.

We examine how to interpret estimates from a commonly used migration regression relating changes in local population to exogenous local labor demand shocks. Using a simple model of local labor markets with mobility costs, we find that most conclusions drawn from migration regression estimates are likely to be substantially misleading. Intuitively, the conventional migration regression is misspecified due to the bilateral nature of location choices.

We examine perceptions of the history of race in the United States and its impact on present-day political polarization. Based on survey data from 14,044 US respondents, we examine historical narratives surrounding key racial events among both white and Black individuals. Our analysis unveils notable discrepancies in beliefs regarding the causes of the Civil War, the achievements of the Civil Rights Movement, and the enduring legacy of slavery on Black Americans today.