Seminario CEDE - Paula Beltran
In this paper, I study the transmission of an aggregate funding supply shock in a lending network and quantitatively assess the implications for the allocative efficiency of funding pro-vision of the US Money Markets Funds Industry. I build a tractable model that features bank sand funds that bargain over the terms of trade subject to an incomplete network of existing counter parties and bilateral bargaining. I discipline the model using data on the funds’ port-folio. I show how to identify the key parameters of the model by exploiting granular shocks of connected agen
Seminario CEDE - Dario Romero
This paper studies how changes in access to international markets affect the direction of technical change. I use two historical trade shocks that transformed markets for the Spanish textile industry at the end of the 19th century, along with newly digitized data on textile patents and production in Spain. First, after Spain effectively forced its colonies to buy manufactured cotton goods in 1891, I document an increase in cotton textile innovation relative to other fabrics.
Seminario CEDE - José Gallegos
A vast literature has documented that US inflation persistence has fallen in recent decades. However, this empirical finding is difficult to explain in monetary models. Using survey data on inflation expectations, I document a positive co-movement between ex-ante average forecast errors and forecast revisions (suggesting forecast sluggishness) from 1968 to 1984, but no co-movement afterwards.
Seminario CEDE - Tatiana Velasco Rodríguez
How does the desegregation of elite schools impact academic achievement? And does desegregation affect students' interactions with different types of peers within their school? In this paper, I study a natural experiment at an elite university in Colombia where the number of low-income students tripled as a result of the introduction of the financial aid program Ser Pilo Paga. The average increase in the percentage of low income peers -9.5 percentage points- had modest to null impacts on wealthy students' academic performance.
Seminario CEDE - Arlen Guarin
Can reparations for victims of human rights violations help rebuild lives? We estimate the effects of reparations across the life cycle, leveraging variation induced by Colombia’s program for victims of the internal armed conflict. The reparations consist of large one-off, lump-sum payments of up to 10,000 USD (PPP 26,000 USD) and represent, on average, three times recipients’ annual household income.
Seminario CEDE - Juan Felipe Riaño
This paper provides the first systematic empirical examination of bureaucratic nepotism and anti-nepotism legislation in an entire modern bureaucracy. By linking confidential information on family ties and administrative employer-employee records for the universe of civil servants in Colombia, I uncover three sets of empirical findings.
Seminario CEDE - José Morales-Arilla
Do autocrats favor their supporters during economic shocks? I introduce a model of redistribution and regime stability that shows how in-group favors can be a strategic response to economic downturns. The model predicts that, as economic shocks worsen, autocrats may favor their supporters and confront opposition protests to save on appeasement costs. I test the model's main results in two empirical settings. First, I focus on the Venezuelan blackouts of 2019.
Seminario CEDE - Rodrigo Rodimiro
Major technological changes have come with an adjustment period of stagnant productivity before the economy operates at its full potential. The mechanism of this adoption process is still not well understood. Using event studies, I document that productivity increases with a five-year lag after the adoption of industrial robots in Brazilian local labor markets.