Eventos pasados

Seminario CEDE - Leonardo Bonilla

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on wage inequality in developing economies. We study a new mechanism that may amplify or lessen the inequality effect of trade. In particular, we include different degrees of substitutability between labor and intermediate inputs across sectors into a dynamic quantitative trade model. We use administrative data from Colombia and exploit exogenous tariff variation to estimate the key elasticities of the model through an indirect inference approach. We find complementarities between labor and intermediate inputs in the non-tradable sector and substitutability in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Armed with the estimates, we compute the gains from the trade reform, finding that different substitutabilities in the production function amplifies the wage inequality effects.

Seminario CEDE - Daniel Mejía

In this paper we exploit the arguably exogenous staggered implementation of an extensive criminal procedural reform in Colombia between 2005 and 2008 to assess its intended and unintended consequences. The reform had explicit objectives, such as guaranteeing due process protection of the accused, reducing the use of pretrial detention, making the processing of criminal cases more efficient, reducing procedural times, and improving the mechanisms for early termination of criminal processes. Our results show that the reform achieved most of its goals. Namely, a significant reduction in the use of pretrial detention of about 17%-34%; a large and significant reduction in procedural times (18%); an increase in the use of mechanisms for early termination of the criminal process through settlements (43%-66%); and a large and significant increase in the percentage of cases that reach adjudication. Nevertheless, the reform also had negative unintended consequences on arrest, clearance, and crime rates. Our results indicate that arrest rates decreased by about 33% and clearance rates by 16%-27%. The reform also directly affected the incentives for criminal behavior and led to an increase in both property crimes (19%) and violent crimes (17%) as a result of the implementation of the reform. Our paper shows that well-intended reforms aimed at increasing due process protection can create unintended consequences in the administration of justice that led to increases in crime and raises the question of how to balance constitutional protections with public safety by creating special provisions and guidelines directed to mitigate potential adverse effects on crime rates.

Seminario CEDE - Michael Wintraub

Protest violence can sap social movements of their legitimacy, deepen political polarization, and help regimes justify state repression. While recent research has focused on how successful protests are in achieving campaign goals, we know little about the relationship between protests and crime. We develop a theoretical framework to explain the relationship between protests and crime, theorizing how protests affect the supply of potential victims of crime, witnesses that could report crimes or exercise informal social control, police assets that could deter crime, and professional criminals interested in benefiting from the disorder that protests typically involve. Harnessing geo-located protest data from confidential government sources in Colombia; geo-located emergency calls for service made by citizens requesting assistance for crime victimization; and geo-located administrative crime data from the Colombian National Police, we use a staggered difference-in-differences design at the street block level to test treatment effects on crime. We find that massive protests in Bogotá in 2021 increased property crimes on street segments that experienced them, especially for robbery (an increase of 5.1% over the control group mean), but had no effect on violent crimes such as homicides, armed robbery, and sexual violence. Because property crime increases persist for up to 8 months---even once protests end---we conclude protesters themselves likely are not responsible for these increases. We discuss the implications of our findings for social movements, policing, and democratic legitimacy.

Seminario CEDE - Jorge Luis Montero

The global health crisis has disrupted economic activities and posed significant challenges to fisheries management and enforcement. In this paper, I examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on property rights in the context of unauthorized fishing activity. This study investigates to what extent the pandemic has led to an increase in unauthorized fishing, potentially undermining existing property rights systems. To do so, I compile a comprehensive database with weekly, country-level fishing effort data for 146 countries before and after the COVID-19 lockdowns and international fishing access agreements data. I employ a combination of Regression Discontinuity Design and Differences in Differences approaches to shed light on the consequences of the pandemic for marine resource governance. The findings indicate that the implementation of restrictions resulted in a decrease in overall fishing efforts; however, unauthorized fishing activity increased. These results are robust to various model specifications and robustness checks. This paper offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to protect and strengthen property rights in the face of unforeseen disruptions.

Seminario CEDE - Leopoldo Fergusson

We study state modernization and its fiscal and political consequences in the Spanish empire in the Americas in the 18th century. We focus on the intendancy system, which introduced a new corps of provincial governors to address misgovernance by local colonial officers. Our empirical strategy leverages the staggered implementation of this reform across the empire, extending from present-day Mexico to Argentina. Using administrative data from the royal treasuries, we show that the intendancy system led to a sizable increase in Crown revenue, driven by a strengthening of state presence far from the traditional centers of power, and the disruption of local elite capture. The reform also caused a reduction in the incidence of rebellions by indigenous peoples, who were harshly exploited under the status quo. However, the intendancy system also heightened tensions with the local Creole elites, as reflected by naming patterns, and plausibly contributed to the nascent independence movement.

Seminario CEDE - Juan Camilo Cárdenas

Seminario CEDE - Julia Seither

Both too low and too high aspirations can prevent the poor from making optimal investments.  We test the hypothesis that the relationship between aspirations and investments is non-monotonic among urban micro-entrepreneurs in Mozambique. We document that at baseline, individuals on average aspire to increase their income by almost 5.000% over the next 10 years. Drawing on insights from existing aspirations literature, we randomize three interventions that expose individuals to local, realistic role models, support them in defining achievable goals to prevent over-shooting, or teach business skills through simple heuristics. Treated individuals decrease their aspirations in all conditions by between 16% - 25%. They also change their savings and investment behavior. More than one year after the intervention, entrepreneurs in either aspirations condition have between 90% - 120% higher business profits relative to the control group. We argue that overly ambitious aspirations are a relevant constraint to optimal investment choices that may contribute to business growth failure.

Seminario CEDE - Roman Zarate

This paper examines schools' effects on college outcomes in Peru, a country without a high school exit standardized test, relate to school reputation and school value-added on learning. We first estimate the impact of selective public exam schools on college outcomes using an RDD around the admission cutoffs. Despite little evidence of gains in learning, graduating from these schools improves college applications, admissions, and enrollment, especially at top private universities. We provide evidence that this result is partially explained by selective exam schools serving as a signal about applicants' abilities. The effects are similar for other signals, such as marginally obtaining the IB diploma. We next estimate and validate school value-added on college outcomes for all high schools in Peru. Consistent with the exam school effects, school gains on test scores are not predictive of effects on college outcomes after controlling for average high school graduates' characteristics. These results are consistent with distortions in the transition from high school to higher education due to information frictions.

Seminario CEDE - Alejandra Montoya

This paper uses a dynamic Roy model and data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 to analyze the decision to pursue two-year or four-year college choices and estimate their associated net value. In this model, the net value varies across three dimensions of abilities: cognitive, socio-emotional, and mechanical, which are estimated using a measurement system. I focus on characterizing the average individual who would conclude that there was a schooling path different from the one she chose that would have led to higher net value. This classification is derived from comparing simulated net values, which consider potential earnings and costs, associated with each schooling path. The results provide valuable insights into the implications of credit constraints and regional characteristics on achieving the highest net value. In particular, short- and long-term credit constraints are important factors preventing people from achieving the highest net value as four-year graduates. Moreover, four-year and high school graduates finding higher net value in a two-year degree are more likely to come from and live in rural areas. Finally, there is evidence of a strong sorting for the cognitive and mechanical abilities but only weak sorting for the socioemotional ability.