Eventos pasados | Universidad de los Andes

Seminario CEDE - Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría

This paper quantifies the positive and normative effects of capital controls on international economic activity under The Bretton Woods international financial system. We develop a threeregion world economic model consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World. The model allows us to quantify the impact of these controls through an open economy general equilibrium capital flows accounting framework. We find these controls had large effects. Counterfactuals show that world output would have been 6% larger had the controls not been implemented. We show that the controls led to much higher welfare for the rest of the world, moderately higher welfare for Europe, but much lower welfare for the U.S. We interpret the large U.S. welfare loss as an estimate of the implicit value to the U.S. of preventing capital flight from other countries and thus promoting economic and political stability in ally and developing countries. Ver documento

10:00 am

Zoom

Activo

Seminario CEDE - José Alberto Guerra

Can transport infrastructure promote long-term labour opportunities and break the occupation tie between parents and their children? This paper estimates the causal effect of access to the railroad network on intergenerational occupation mobility in nineteenth century England and Wales. We create a new dataset of father and son pairs by linking individuals across the full-population censuses of 1851, 1881 and 1911. By geolocating individuals down to the street level, we measure access to the railroad network using the proximity to the nearest train station. To address the non-random access to the railroad network, we create a dynamic hypothetical railroad based solely on geographic cost consideration. We find that sons who grew up one standard devi- ation (roughly 5 km) closer to the train station were 6 percentage points more likely to work in a different occupation than their father and 5 percentage points more likely to be upward mobile. The majority of the effects are driven by changes in local labour opportunities. Ver documento

10:00 am

Zoom

Activo

Seminario CEDE - María del Pilar López-Uribe

We investigate the impact of land dispossession of peasants on the origin of the civil conflict in Colombia. Using a matching-pair instrumental variable approach, we show that the historical dispossession of peasants lands by landlords that led to the rise of peasant grievances is associated with the presence of the rural guerrilla movement -The Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC)- during the first stage of the Colombian civil conflict (1974-1985). This study exploits variation in floods to identify how peasants land dispossessions during the export boom (1914-1946) determine the rise of rural guerrilla movements and the consolidation of their rebel activities. Using a novel municipal-level data set on natural disasters and land dispossession, the study documents that municipalities experiencing floods during the years 1914-1946 were substantially more likely to have land dispossession than municipalities where floods was not severe. Floods reduced temporarily the conditions of the land and its value, facilitating the dispossession of the peasants of their lands by large landowners. We propose two mechanisms through which previous land dispossession facilitated the emergence of rebel armed groups. On the one hand, exposure to previous events of violence gave military training and access to weapons and military experience to the rural population that likely emboldened the formation of rebel groups. On the other hand, the ideological cohesion stemming from radical liberals and communists exacerbated the grievances and helped the emergence of rebel armed groups. Ver documento

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Federico Huneeus

This paper investigates the importance of firm-to-firm production network linkages for earnings inequality. We develop a quantitative model in which heterogeneous firms hire workers of different abilities in an imperfectly competitive labor market and source intermediates from heterogeneous suppliers in a production network. The model delivers an earnings equation with a firm-specific wage premium that depends endogenously on both firm productivities and firm-to-firm linkages in the production network. We establish identification of the model parameters and estimate them using linked employer-employee and firm-to-firm transactions data from Chile. Counterfactual simulations using our estimated model show that heterogeneity in network linkages explains 21% of log earnings variance, while passthrough of productivity shocks via network linkages explains between 20-25% of earnings volatility. We also examine the effects of a minimum wage policy and find strong spillover effects to worker earnings above the wage floor, with substitution of materials for labor explaining around 40% of these effects. Ver documento

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Laura Castillo-Martinez

Following a sudden stop, real exchange rates can adjust through a nominal exchange rate depreciation, lower domestic prices, or a combination of both. This paper makes three contributions to understand how the type of adjustment shapes the response of macroeconomic variables, in particular productivity, to such an episode. First, using Spanish micro data during the two episodes, it documents that in a currency union unproductive firms exit more than in a floating regime. Second, it proposes a small open economy DSGE model featuring firm selection, variable markups and elastic labor supply to rationalize this finding. The model nests three mechanisms through which a sudden stop affects productivity: a pro-competitive, a cost, and a demand channel. While only the former operates when the nominal exchange rate adjusts, all three are active under a currency union. The model delivers general conditions under which the positive impact of the demand channel on productivity dominates. Third, it validates the models aggregate predictions against a wider set of economies. In particular, it shows that the decline in productivity after a sudden stop is increasing in the flexibility of the exchange rate. Ver documento

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Matthew O. Jackson

We study the consequences of job markets heavy reliance on referrals. Referrals screen candidates and lead to better matches and increased productivity, but disadvantage job-seekers who have few or no connections to employed workers, leading to increased inequality. Coupled with homophily, referrals also lead that group to have relatively low future employment as well. We identify conditions under which distributing referrals more evenly across a population no only reduces inequality, but also improves future productivity and economic mobility. We use the model to examine optimal policies, showing that one-time affirmative action policies involve short-run production losses, but lead to long-term improvements in equality, mobility, and productivity due to induced changes in future referrals. We also examine how the possibility of firing workers changes the effects of referrals. Ver documento

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Rocio Madera

We develop a simple methodology to estimate the heterogeneous welfare effects of any small shock to residents within a city. The methodology relies only on modest assumptions regarding residents choice of where to consume and work and delivers an expression that shows that the welfare elasticity to any small shock can be written as a function of (1) the spatial patterns of consumption and income; and (2) the price and wage effects of the shock. We then apply this methodology to ask the question: Is tourism good for locals? Using detailed spatial data on expenditure and income patterns of residents in Barcelona, we show that plausibly exogenous shifts in tourist expenditure due to compositional differences in their country of origin across time and over space in the city crowds out local expenditure by increasing prices but partially compensates through increases in wages. The incidence of the tourism shock, however, is highly heterogeneous across the city, with inner city residents bearing the the largest welfare losses and peripheral residents enjoying the greatest welfare gains.

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Elisa Belfiori

Is there an optimal alternative to a global carbon tax? We study this question in a standard neoclassical growth model with a carbon emissions externality using both the Pigouvian and Ramsey motives for taxation. We show that the social optimum is implementable with taxes widely used in countries worldwide such as consumption, energy, income taxes and no carbon taxation. We theoretically characterize and quantitatively estimate the optimal tax rates, and we find that they are well within existing tax rates. We argue that traditional taxes can play a central role in tackling the climate problem as policymakers seem reluctant to introduce a carbon tax and are often keener on changing existing tax rates.

10:00 am

Universidad de los Andes

Activo

Seminario CEDE - Fabio Sánchez

En este trabajo evaluamos el impacto del Programa Vivienda Gratuita (PVG) sobre las condiciones de vida, de bienestar y de habitabilidad de los hogares beneficiados. Este programa fue una iniciativa del Gobierno colombiano iniciada em 2012 para entregar gratuitamente viviendas nuevas de interés prioritario (VIP) a los hogares más vulnerables del país. Para estimar impactos del programa de manera causal, el presente trabajo aprovecha que el 39% de los beneficiarios del programa fueron seleccionados mediante sorteos de vivienda. Los resultados señalan que el programa cumple con su objetivo en la reducción del déficit cualitativo, cuantitativo y habitacional de vivienda. En adición, los beneficiarios reportan tener mayores niveles de satisfacción con su vida y con su entorno y participan más en organizaciones comunitarias. Por otro lado, los beneficiarios del PVG reducen la probabilidad de ser considerados como pobres dentro de la medición del Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional. Adicionalmente, como impactos de orden superior, el presente trabajo encuentra que los beneficiarios del PVG tienen mayores ingresos laborales, particularmente las mujeres. Simultáneamente, se encuentra que existe una reorganización de los gastos al interior de los hogares beneficiarios: disminuye el gasto en arriendo y aumentan los gastos en servicios públicos, alimentación, educación, salud, transporte e impuesto predial. De igual forma, los hogares beneficiarios del programa tienen una mayor probabilidad de adquirir bienes durables como neveras, lavadoras, computadoras y motos, así como ahorrar en efectivo. Finalmente, se encuentra que los niños y las niñas pertenecientes a los hogares beneficiarios tienen menor riesgo de ausencia y deserción escolares. El principal mecanismo que explica estos resultados radica en que los beneficiarios del programa se relocalizan en lugares donde existe una mayor provisión de bienes públicos y más cercanía a servicios complementarios (como jardines, escuelas, hospitales, supermercados o bancos), así como una mayor actividad económica.

10:00 am

Zoom