Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2024-34
JEL: D72, D73, D74, D91, K38
We explore the impact of social protests on individual attitudes toward politics, human rights, and issues related to political economy. We use a unique panel dataset to analyze the effects of significant exposure to large-scale protests in 2019 in Colombia. The primary grievances fueling these social movements included dissatisfaction with the political elite, human rights violations, income inequality, and corruption. Our findings indicate that protests significantly alter individuals’ beliefs regarding some, but not all, of their core demands. We document a significant negative effect of protests on the likelihood of sympathizing with political parties and a positive effect on the appreciation for human rights. However, less robust evidence suggests that protests may decrease the probability of individuals endorsing a political ideology or accepting clientelistic offers. Additionally, we find no significant impact of demonstrations on individuals’ overall political ideology, their support for democratic elections, or their endorsement of distributive policies.
14-08-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-33
JEL: I22, I23, I24, I26, J24, O15
This research evaluates the implementation of a loan-scholarship program for economically disadvantaged students with low academic performance on higher education outcome variables. Using a regression discontinuity design with data from 11th-grade graduates between 2015 and 2019 in one of the most populated departments in Colombia, a significant increase of 82% in university enrollment and 146% in university graduation was identified compared to the control mean. Conversely, university dropout also increased by 55% compared to the control mean. These results suggest a review of the program components and prompt reflection on education financing policies to reduce disparities. The findings highlight the need to support not only enrollment but also the sustenance of students to reduce dropout rates. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of adapting public policies to the diverse needs of students based on the estimated heterogeneous effects, promoting more equitable access to higher education and improving retention and academic success.
13-08-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-32
JEL: F18, O31, O41, Q54, Q55
Los Acuerdos Internacionales Ambientales (IEAs por sus siglas en inglés) se han propuesto como medios para fomentar transferencias tecnológicas verdes entre economías avanzadas y emergentes, promoviendo así una transición energética global. Este trabajo presenta un modelo de crecimiento endógeno que incluye dos economías: un Norte que representa a un líder tecnológico, y un Sur que es su seguidor con la posibilidad de copiar las tecnologías del Norte. Además de los flujos tecnológicos estándar, el Norte y el Sur pueden llevar a cabo negociaciones cooperativas para facilitar las transferencias tecnológicas verdes. Encuentro que las transferencias tecnológicas pueden revertir la dependencia de la trayectoria en el Sur. Además, acuerdos incondicionales que reduzcan los costos de las tecnologías del Norte pueden inducir inmediatamente una transición energética global si (i) el Norte sigue un senda de crecimiento limpio, y si (ii) las tecnologías del Norte son lo suficientemente avanzadas. De lo contrario, para asegurar una transición energética global, el acuerdo debe acompañarse de políticas adicionales que fomenten las innovaciones limpias.
12-08-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-31
JEL: K42, O13, O17, Q34, Q56
This study investigates the socio-economic effects of Colombia’s recent coca cultivation boom, exploiting municipal variations in production incentives following the 2014 announcement of the coca crop substitution program. Using a difference-in-differences strategy with satellite-derived night-time light data as a proxy for economic activity, we find that a one standard deviation increase in coca crops resulted in a 2.5% to 3.1% increase in municipality-level GDP. We also estimate local GDP multipliers, showing that each additional dollar from coca leaf and coca base sales raises GDP by $1.17 to $2.30 and $0.86 to $1.63, respectively. Although the coca boom did not significantly affect local fiscal revenues, violence indicators, or land used for agricultural production, it had substantial environmental impacts, with deforestation rates increasing by 104% and a 302% rise in land conversion from coca cultivation to cattle pastures in the Colombian Amazon. Our findings underscore the significance of illicit economies in providing short-term economic gains and acting as catalysts for economic activity.
11-08-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-30
JEL: O18, R12, R13, R14, R31
This document studies the economic impact of land use and densification regulations in Bogotá and 17 neighboring municipalities. Using georeferenced microdata from 2017-2019, the maximum allowed floor area ratio (FAR) is calculated based on the urban regulations in effect at the time. Through a Quantitative Spatial Model, the effects of regulation are quantified by comparing observed data with a counterfactual scenario for a construction market free of regulations.
The conclusion is that these regulations lead to an increase in location costs, prompting companies and workers to adjust their location decisions, which in turn generates increases in transportation costs. These restrictions also positively influence the productivity of companies and residential amenities perceived by workers, through externalities resulting from a compact urban concentration.
The magnitude of the effects depends on the rigidity of the densification regulation and the demand for built space. Additionally, the regulations affect the entire region, even in areas not directly regulated, due to the existence of general spatial equilibrium effects.
10-08-2024
Documento CEDE 2024-29
JEL: C92, C91, D91, D31
While trust remains pivotal for economic growth in any society, its consistency over time is not guaranteed. External shocks such as economic crises or natural disasters can disrupt group trust dynamics. Through a laboratory experiment, this study examines the effects of random negative economic shocks on economic relations characterized by having a group of trustors and a group of trustees. The results indicate that such shocks decrease collective trust between groups due to two main factors: firstly, a decline in the trustor’s perceived trustworthiness of trustees; and secondly, a tendency for trustors to rely on the contributions of other trustors, leading to free-riding behavior. Furthermore, the experiment reveals that groups become less trustworthy following the shock, as trustees prioritize recovering economic gains from trust relations. This decline in collective trustworthiness is driven by diminished trustee’s beliefs in the trustworthiness of other trustees and trustees’ enforcing what they consider socially appropriate to do: return less after the shock.
29-07-2024
