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Eventos

En esta sección encontrarás la agenda de eventos académicos, conferencias, seminarios y actividades organizadas por la Facultad de Economía.

Imagen Seminario Pepe - Juan Diego Duarte y Mauricio Velásquez
Activo

Seminario Pepe - Juan Diego Duarte y Mauricio Velásquez

Juan Diego Duarte. Mauricio Velásquez. The prevailing narrative attributes the surge in deforestation following Colombia’s 2016 Peace Agreement to illegality and state failure — the state was not built quickly enough to prevent illegal land appropriation. This paper proposes an alternative account: post-peace deforestation is a predictable consequence of economic development and state building reaching territories where frontier expansion had been suppressed for decades by armed conflict. In these municipalities, three conditions converge to make forest conversion the expected outcome of rational economic behavior: land is effectively free, local markets are thin so that any marginal increase in productive capital yields high returns, and the peace process dramatically reduced the risk premium associated with frontier investment. Cattle ranching—the most accessible vehicle for capital accumulation in these settings—emerges as the dominant pathway through which development-driven deforestation materializes. We formalize this logic through the concept of productive frontier saturation: the degree of prior productive incorporation relative to available forest endowment, proxied by cumulative subsidized formal agricultural credit and remaining forest cover. Using a municipal-level panel that combines administrative credit records from Colombia´s public agricultural credit system, IDEAM pixel-level forest cover data, and historical armed-group presence from the ViPAA database, we show that municipalities in the lowest quartile of pre-accord saturation experienced approximately 14% more deforestation, 63% more credit, and 73% more new borrowers after the peace transition. Crucially, historical FARC presence adds no significant explanatory power once saturation is accounted for, challenging the view that the guerrilla’s withdrawal is the proximate driver of forest loss. Subsidized agricultural credit amplifies the process but does not originate it: the underlying incentives for frontier expansion exist independently in unsaturated territories. Our findings reframe the post-conflict deforestation debate from a governance-failure story to a development story, with implications for the design of environmental and rural credit policy in forest-rich post-conflict regions worldwide.

12:30 pm
Salón W-101
Imagen Seminario CEDE - Oskar Nupia
Activo

Seminario CEDE - Oskar Nupia

Oskar Nupia. The literature has highlighted that the socioeconomic characteristics of rulers shape their preferences for redistributive policies and that gaps between citizens and politicians can affect how well public policies address citizens' needs. Yet in many countries, including Colombia, basic information on legislators' economic position remains unavailable. Using a unique dataset built from mandatory disclosure filings, we document the income, wealth, and conflicts of interest (CI) of Colombian legislators during the 2018-2022 and 2022-2026 Congresses. Legislators belong to the top 3% of the income and wealth distribution, earning roughly seven times the median tax filer and holding five times their wealth. On average, 70% of legislators report CI, which span all economic sectors. The largest concentrations of these conflicts are found in Agriculture, Livestock, Real Estate, Commerce, Public Administration, and Personal Services. While reported private economic activities have declined between Congresses, conflicts involving relatives increased by a similar magnitude. Left-wing legislators report lower income and wealth but are not less likely to have CI. Right-wing legislators tend to concentrate their conflicts in Agriculture and Livestock, whereas left-wing legislators focus on Information and Administrative Services. Wealthier legislators report more CI across more sectors, and each additional term in Congress is associated with approximately 15% more wealth. These patterns document a substantial representational distance between legislators and citizens that extends beyond income levels to the nature of economic ties that may shape legislative behavior.

12:30 pm
Salón W-101

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