Documentos CEDE
Accede a las publicaciones que reúnen trabajos de profesores/as e investigadores/as de la Facultad de Economía, basados en información del Centro de Datos CEDE. Presentan análisis económicos y resultados preliminares que aportan evidencia y abren discusiones académicas sobre temas relevantes para el país.
Documento CEDE 2025-09
JEL: I18, K42, C45
This text compiles ten years of experiences in developing machine learning models for the Colombian public sector. The main applications focus on public health and citizen security. In the first case, it demonstrates how to significantly improve the risk adjustment formula of the Capitation Payment Unit (UPC) and how to build a decision model to prevent unnecessary hospitalizations as a result of cost-effective home medical visits. In the second case, it identifies the causal effect of police presence in a quadrant of Bogotá and its impact on crime. To this end, it is necessary to estimate the elasticities ofpolice presence with respect to crime, cross-elasticities (indirect effects on Other quadrants). With this information it is possible to do counterfactual analysis and tin particular to estimate the impact on crime of the optimal police reassignment in the city. Additionally, a methodology is described to uncover the true crime rate in Bogotá, and underreporting of these events is estimated. Finally, a brief reflection is provided on the challenges faced by policymakers implementing these solutions.
09-02-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-08
JEL: C45, D72, D73, H70, R58
This paper examines the compliance with programmatic voting in Colombia by analyzing Government Programs (GP) of mayoral candidates in 2019 and 2023. Using natural language processing techniques, plagiarism patterns were identified in approximately 11.8% of GPs in 2019 and 9.3% in 2023. The analysis reveals geographic and socioeconomic patterns in the distribution of plagiarism, with a marked concentration in the Caribbean region and peripheral areas of the country, correlated with indicators of poverty and institutional weakness. Additionally, complex plagiarism networks were discovered, some spanning more than 50 municipalities, suggesting systematic outsourcing of these documents. These findings denote the limited practical relevance of GPs in territories with more vulnerable democracies and highlight the need to strengthen programmatic voting mechanisms to reduce failures in political representation at the local level.
08-02-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-07
JEL: C90, I12, I18, J13, J18
Nearly one million people contract a sexually transmitted infection (STI) each day worldwide, and almost half of all pregnancies are unintended, underscoring a persistent global challenge for sexual and reproductive health. Despite research efforts, the understanding of the interplay between social structures and sexual behaviors is still insufficient. This paper investigates the relationship between perceived restrictiveness of intergenerational social norms surrounding sexual conduct and risky sexual behavior among young adults in university settings in Colombia. Drawing on the framework of social norms, I develop a novel index measuring the perception of social norms restrictiveness and conduct a list experiment to infer risky sexual behaviors, while also measuring their frequency. The results reveal a paradox: while more restrictive social norms reduce risky sexual behavior when they are actively enforced, individuals exposed to these norms during adolescence exhibit significantly higher levels of sexual risk-taking—such as multiple having sexual partners (in a context of low self-care) and substance-influenced sexual encounters—once these norms are no longer in place. These findings challenge the conventional view that restrictive social norms are always protective, evidencing their potential to generate unintended negative consequences. This research contributes to the understanding of the complex relationship between social norms, sexual behavior, and public health; advances knowledge on the social determinants of sexual health in Colombia; and sheds light on how intergenerational changes in norms may interact with the efficacy of sexual health interventions. Finally, these insights underscore the need for balanced policies that integrate comprehensive sexual education with adaptable and sustained norm-setting approaches to promote healthy sexual behaviors across the life course.
07-02-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-06
JEL: D04, O12, I38
La Fundación Bavaria lanzó el programa Emprendedores en 2017 con el objetivo de capacitar a microempresarios y mejorar las condiciones de los pequeños comercios de alimentos y bebidas en Colombia. Este estudio utiliza un enfoque de análisis de eventos para evaluar el impacto global del programa en las ventas de los micronegocios a mediano y largo plazo, identificando también efectos heterogéneos que permiten comprender mejor las dinámicas de los resultados. Los hallazgos revelan un impacto positivo del 2,5% en el nivel de ventas comparado con los controles, con heterogeneidades significativas; por ejemplo, bares y licoreras reportan un impacto del 8% en las ventas mensuales promedio. Adicionalmente, el análisis de costo-beneficio realizado sugiere que la inversión promedio por tendera atendida se recupera en tan solo nueve meses, con una relación de 3,75 pesos de beneficio por cada peso invertido en un horizonte de 36 meses. Estos resultados subrayan la sostenibilidad económica del programa, así como su capacidad para generar beneficios significativos tanto para las microempresarias como para Bavaria. Este estudio aporta evidencia sobre cómo empresas privadas pueden actuar como "pilotos" de políticas públicas, mostrando el potencial de las alianzas público-privadas para mejorar sectores clave en economías emergentes con un enfoque inclusivo.
06-02-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-05
JEL: Q12, Q15, Q54, O13, D52
We study how weather shocks affect the farm-size distribution and agricultural productivity. Using survey data from several developing countries, we document new empirical patterns in farm-size dynamics and the effect of weathers hocks. Drawing on unique administrative data from Colombia with land-transaction records, census-based farm sizes, and household surveys on consumption and investment, we show that shocks intensify land market activity and increase the number of small farms, reducing average farm size within regions. We calibrate a heterogeneous-agent model that endogenizes the farm-size distribution and use it to study mechanisms and the dynamic effects of weather shocks and climate change.
15-01-2025
Documento CEDE 2025-04
JEL: H42, H53, Q18
This study uses information from beneficiaries of the Red de Seguridad alimentaria (ReSA) program, a social program focused on growing food for self-consumption among vulnerable populations in Colombia, to evaluate potential effects on reducing food insecurity. Data were collected from beneficiaries for 2016 (22,092 households) and 2019 (9,587 households) of ReSA, who completed an entry and exit survey. For the assessment of food insecurity, 2 indices were constructed (ELCSA and the FCS). The results show a decrease in the food insecurity index for program participants at the end of the program. In addition, it could be observed that the longer duration in the program also
presents a stronger effect on the reduction of food insecurity. These results also show that minors are the ones who benefit the most from ReSA, compared to adults. Finally, it is observed that, in households headed by women, the effects are positive but smaller compared to those headed by men.
14-01-2025
