Is drug-related violence fueling emigration from Central America?

We examine how drug-related violence influences emigration choices in Central America, a region that has experienced a sharp increase in migration to the United States. Combining multiple data sources, we leverage an instrumental variables strategy that exploits local variation in proximity to drug-trafficking routes and coca production in Colombia. Our results show that rising violence increases intentions, plans, and preparations to emigrate, particularly to the United States. These migration responses are strongest among young and higher-skilled individuals. Mediation analysis suggests that these migration responses operate predominantly through declining economic activity and worsening labor-market conditions in Central America, rather than through a direct response to insecurity.

15-01-2027