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¿Exuberancia de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia?

Author

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  • Juan Camilo Pardo

Abstract

El presente documento evidencia la existencia de burbujas en el precio de la vivienda en Colombia (a nivel nacional y de ciudades) entre el período 1995- 2019. Para comprobar su presencia se utiliza la prueba de detección de burbujas propuesta por Phillips et al. (2015) al ratio precio-renta y a una medida del componente no fundamental del precio de la vivienda, encontrando varios períodos de comportamiento exuberante. Además, se demuestra la existencia de migración de burbujas desde Medellín hacía siete ciudades receptoras (entre nueve posibles), cuyas intensidades son cambiantes en el tiempo. Los resultados tienen importantes implicaciones para el diseno de políticas públicas dado que utiliza un mecanismo de detección en tiempo real.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Camilo Pardo, 2021. "¿Exuberancia de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia?," Documentos CEDE 19319, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:019319
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/50121/dcede2021-28.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precios; vivienda; Burbujas inmobiliarias; Migración de burbujas; Fundamentales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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