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Política Monetaria Expansiva: Efectos sobre márgenes, tasas de interés y subsidios crediticios

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  • Sergio Clavijo

Abstract

Este documento analiza la gran expansión monetaria global del periodo 2008-2020 y su impacto sobre los márgenes financieros, las tasas de interés y el papel de los subsidios de carácter financiero, con especial atención al caso de Bancoldex. En la primera sección se dimensionan los efectos de las hojas de balance de los bancos centrales, su “activismosectorial” en ese soporte financiero y la concomitante expansión fiscal. En la segunda sección concluimos que todo ello está teniendo importantes cambios en la operación monetaria y generando drásticas caídas en las tasas de interés nominales y reales, sin que hasta el momento ello haya generado rebrotes inflacionarios. Pero este descenso en las tasas de interés (2008-2021) arriesga con: i) generar nuevos ambientes de “represión financiera internacional”; ii) contracción de los márgenes financieros bancarios en medio de mayores exigencias de liquidez y capital por cuenta de Basilea III; y iii) eventual pérdida de eficacia en el otorgamiento de subsidios en tasas de interés, dado sus bajos niveles de 0%-0.5% anual en términos reales, pero esto será de carácter temporal. Por último, aquí se presentan los resultados de aplicar a Colombia un modelo de Regla de Taylor para avizorar la posible trayectoria de la tasa-repo del BR que comanda la estructura de todas las tasas de interés. Bajo pandemia (2020-2021), la repo estará cayendo -250 pbs hacia 1.75%, equivalente a 0%-0.5% real anual. Durante la recuperación de 2021-2022, la inflación estará repuntando de forma moderada y ello requerirá que la repo del BR regrese hacia el 3% (+125 pbs), pero la repo-real continuará sin mayores alteraciones en ese rango 0%-0.5%, lo cual debe tenerse en mente a la hora de evaluar la eficacia de los subsidios en tasas de interés.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo, 2020. "Política Monetaria Expansiva: Efectos sobre márgenes, tasas de interés y subsidios crediticios," Documentos CEDE 18504, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:018504
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/47781/dcede2020-43.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kyungmin Kim & Thomas Laubach & Min Wei, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases: New Evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-047, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precios; intereses; política monetaria; Instituciones Financieras de AméricaLatina.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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