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An Extortionary Guerilla Movement

Author

Listed:
  • Norman Offstein

Abstract

This paper develops a theoretical framework that formalizes a guerrilla movement's observed oil pipeline attack decision. The movement's decision is modeled as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, where each period it chooses to attack or not attack the pipeline. For extortionary behavior, each period the movement's decision wil depend on the level of single period payoff and discounted expected future payoffs. We estimate the model using the pipeline attack data and compare parameters when the discount factor is changed. The results suggest that can reject a zero discount factor hypothesis, demonstrating that the movement's observed attack behavior is compatible with extortionary behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Norman Offstein, 2002. "An Extortionary Guerilla Movement," Documentos CEDE 1977, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:001977
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    File URL: https://repositorio.uniandes.edu.co/bitstream/handle/1992/8114/dcede2002-09.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ifeoma Christy Mba & Emmanuel Ikechukwu Mba & Winnie Ogonna Arazu & CHINASA E. URAMA & Chioma Henrietta Machebe & Chikodili Eze, 2019. "Application of the Stochastic Markov Model in Predicting the Volume of Oil Spill in Nigeria: A Case of the Niger-delta Region," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 110-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov Decision Process; Guerrilla; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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