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Profesores Principal
Jorge Tovar
Documentos de trabajo / unpublished work
  • Documentos de trabajo / unpublished work
(2018) This paper develops for the first time the National Transfers Accounts for Colombia. It estimates the age profiles for all income and expenses in the economy flowing from the government to households and vice versa, as well as flows within and across households. The methodology allows us to describe each age group’s production and consumption levels, their savings capacity, and how the different age groups support each other. This document shows that the lifecycle deficit is influenced by low-income which is driven in large part by the prevalence of informality. This hinders the much-needed increase in savings required to exploit the demographic dividend. It also concludes that most public transfers are devoted to the eldest rather than the youngest, but still the former rely on family support rather than public transfers. In this sense, the paper sheds light on upcoming policy debates necessary to guarantee sustainability and self-sufficiency in an aging economy.
(2017) This paper studies the use of time distribution between paid and unpaid activities across age and gender in Colombia’s households. Using the National Time Transfer Account methodology, we generate age profiles for paid and unpaid activities, as well as household time produced, consumed and transferred per gender. We find that male devote more time to labor market activities, leisure, and sleep. Women, in contrast, dedicate disproportionately more time to unpaid domestic housework, particularly childcare. There is not a significant gender gap in time consumed. Time use gender differentials are core to decisions on issues such as labor market participation and with it the accompanying social security contributions easing future access to pension benefits. These long-term effects have a critical macro impact in an aging society.

(2017) Transfers are big business in association football. This paper develops a generalized additive mixed model that aids managers in predicting how a football player is expected to perform in a new team. It does so by using event-level data from the Spanish and the Colombian football leagues. Using passes as a performance proxy, the model exploits the richness of the data to account for the difficulty of each pass attempt performed by each player over an entire season. The model estimates are then used to determine how a player transferred from the Colombian league should perform in the Spanish league, taking into account that teammates and rivals’ abilities are different in the latter.

Arborización y crimen urbano en Bogotá

(2016) La relación entre vegetación y criminalidad ha sido motivo de investigación reciente entre estudiosos del entorno urbano. Se argumenta que si bien la vegetación puede tener efectos positivos sobre la salud humana, por otro lado podría relacionarse con una mayor propensión a determinadas actividades criminales La literatura existente sobre el tema se concentra en estudios de caso en países desarrollados. Este estudio es el primer esfuerzo por cuantificar dicha relación en un país emergente. Utilizando datos censales y georreferenciados de árboles en Bogotá (Colombia) se logra establecer que el proceso de arborización tiene un efecto positivo sobre la criminalidad de la ciudad. Específicamente, mediante modelos econométricos espaciales se encuentra que el acto de plantar árboles tiene efectos estadísticos y económicos negativos sobre el hurto a personas.


Trade and Labor Markets: Evidence From the Colombian Trade Liberalization Process (Joint with Christian Jaramillo)


The objective of this paper is to measure the impact of trade on the sectoral labor markets. Using the Colombian National Household Survey and comparable trade-related data, we study how changes in trade policy affect the sectoral demands for labor, as measured by the change in wages and employment. We develop a structural model and estimate its reduced-form specification to determine an elasticity between measures of sectoral tariffs and labor demand, correcting for tariff endogeneity. The data used covers the period of 1984 through 1999. This allows us to take advantage of the natural experiment represented by the Colombian trade liberalization process of the early nineties. The results suggest that sector tariff levels over the period are positively correlated with their employment levels, but only for tradable sectors. In the case of wages, there is no evidence that they were affected by the trade reform.


Historia de la Regulación Económica

Octubre 2005 Español/Spanish

A strategy to predict association football players’ passing skills