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EMEs and COVID-19 Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra y Marcela Eslava

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Oscar Becerra
  • Marcela Eslava

Abstract

Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small- firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on account-ing identities and actual data, quantifies potential job and income losses during the crisis and recovery for economies with different economic organization structures. Our analysis incorporates differential exposure of jobs across categories of firm-size and formality status, as well as sectors and occupations. We account for the direct supply shock caused by lockdowns, the idiosyncratic demand shock suffered by sectors that rely on high contact with their costumers, the transmission of both shocks through IO linkages, and the overall aggregate demand effect derived from these shocks. Applying our framework to data for Colombia, which exhibits an employment distribution similar to that of other emerging market countries, in particular Latin America, we find that well over 50% of jobs are at risk in the initial stages of the crisis. Because informal jobs and those not fit for telework are at higher risk, this number goes down to 33% if the US employment distribution is imposed on the Colombian data. As the crisis deepens, the risk of unemployment grows. However, informality rebounds quickly in the recovery, an employment at risk is quickly reduced to 20% of the baseline, all concentrated in formal jobs. Our findings point to the importance of action to maintain formal matches from dissolving, given their scarcity and rebuilding difficulty, while protecting the poor and the informal via income transfers.

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  • Laura Alfaro & Oscar Becerra & Marcela Eslava, 2020. "EMEs and COVID-19 Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra y Marcela Eslava," Documentos CEDE 18193, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:018193
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    2. Pizzinelli, Carlo & Shibata, Ippei, 2023. "Has COVID-19 induced labor market mismatch? Evidence from the US and the UK," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Marcela Eslava & Oscar Becerra & Juan Camilo Cárdenas & Margarita Isaacs & Daniel Mejía, 2019. "The socioeconomic patterns of COVID outside advanced economies: the case of Bogotá," Documentos CEDE 18525, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Juan Esteban Carranza & Mariana Fuentes Vélez & Felipe González Esquivel & Stiven Pérez Pulgarín & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2022. "Covid-19 y consumo de los hogares: hechos estilizados a partir de datos del Grupo Éxito," Chapters, in: Darwin Cortés Cortés & Christian Posso & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas & Banco de la República & Univ (ed.), Covid-19 consecuencias y desafíos en la economía colombiana. Una mirada desde las universidades, chapter 9, pages 173-192, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "The role of precious metals in portfolio diversification during the Covid19 pandemic: A wavelet-based quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Bardey, David & Fernandez Sierra, Manuel & Gravel, Alexis, 2021. "Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at Least) in the Short Run?," IZA Discussion Papers 14095, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bussolo,Maurizio & Kotia,Ananya & Sharma,Siddharth, 2021. "Workers at Risk : Panel Data Evidence on the COVID-19 Labor Market Crisis in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9584, The World Bank.
    9. Central Bank of Chile, 2022. "The Central Bank of Chile´s policy response to the Covid-19 crisis," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The monetary-fiscal policy nexus in the wake of the pandemic, volume 122, pages 57-72, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Guerrero-Amezaga, Maria Elena & Humphries, John Eric & Neilson, Christopher A. & Shimberg, Naomi & Ulyssea, Gabriel, 2022. "Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; emerging economies; informality; Örm-size distribution; Latin America.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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