CEDE

2019

Elisa Cavatorta - Does exposure to violence affect reciprocity? Experimental evidence from the West Bank

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Elisa Cavatorta, King’s College London
Coautores Daniel John Zizzo (University of Queensland) y Yousef Daoud (Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and Birzeit University.)
Abstract This paper studies how reciprocity is affected by exposure to violence in early age. We combine a research design that isolates the exogenous exposure to violence with a lab-in-the-field experiment to study how reciprocity in the forms of conditional cooperation and vindictive behavior in adolescents varies as a result of exposure to violence. We focus on young Palestinians in the West Bank region of the Palestinian territories. We find that exposure to violence affects reciprocity of Palestinian adolescents: youth more exposed to violence engage in more reciprocal behavior in both the domain of cooperation and that of aggression. Part of the effect is explained by changes in the beliefs about other people's behavior.
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Fecha 22/08/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Javier Mejia - The Network Formation Origin of Tribal Societies

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Javier Mejia, New York University Abu Dhabi
Abstract This paper proposes a theoretical framework for the study of tribal societies. This framework describes rational individuals who access resources through social interactions in a pre-modern productive system. It predicts that the interaction of three forces--technology, ecology, and interaction costs--determined the size, stability, and complexity of tribal societies. It shows that the way these three forces interact in the model is consistent with the history of human evolution. Moreover, it offers systematic cross-cultural evidence at a global scale and a set of case studies from Middle-Eastern and North-African tribal groups to support the theoretical predictions.
Fecha 20/08/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Gabriel Ulyssea - Trade and Informality in the presence of labour market frictions and regulations

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Gabriel Ulyssea, Universidad de Oxford
Coautores Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke), Pinelopi Goldberg (Yale/World Bank) y Costas Meghir (Yale)
Fecha 8/08/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Xavier Duran - Why not Using the Wheel? Evidence from the Cambao Wagon Road in Nineteenth Century Colombia’s Andes

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Xavier Duran, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores Holmes Paez (Universidad Javeriana) Camilo Torres (University of Aberdeen)
Abstract The use of wheel transport for long distance trade (wheel henceforth) is an important technological advance of antiquity. However, slow adoption of the wheel is striking – for instance, sub-Saharan Africa and South America had not adopted it widely by early 19th century. Even more intriguing is slow adoption given the positive effects the wheel had on economic development. In this paper I examine why adoption of the wheel on the Andes was so slow. I use overlooked archival sources to document that the Cambao wagon road finished in 1885 was the first in Colombia and the Andes. A threshold technology adoption model calibrated using human and mule energy transport cost suggests that for pre-Columbian populations facing rugged topography it was efficient to select short steep routes for human porterage (and later mule pack) transport. In turn, short and steep routes generated path dependence and inhibited for centuries later adoption of the wheel that required new long zig-zagging routes. Only until the 1860s it became efficient to adopt the wheel on the Andes. Wheel route search cost and time, political interregional competition to build the road, and over-optimistic expectations over the adoption of railways explain the further two decade delay.
Fecha 6/08/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Daniel I. Rees - D. Mark Anderson - Public Health Efforts and the Decline in Urban Mortality

Lugar W-102
Conferencistas Daniel I. Rees (University of Colorado Denver) y D. Mark Anderson (Montana State University)
Coautor Kerwin Kofi Charles (Yale University)
Abstract Using data on 25 major American cities for the period 1900-1940, we explore the effects of municipal-level public health efforts that were viewed as critical in the fight against food- and water-borne diseases. In addition to studying interventions such as treating sewage and setting strict bacteriological standards for milk, which have received little attention in the literature, we provide new evidence on the effects of water filtration and chlorination, extending the work of previous scholars. Contrary to the consensus view, we find that none of the interventions under study contributed substantially to the observed declines in total and infant mortality.
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Fecha 13/06/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Sergio Urzúa - Voting for Democracy: Chile's Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Sergio Urzúa, University of Maryland, College Park
Coautores Ethan Kaplan y Fernando Saltiel, University of Maryland, College Park
Abstract Augusto Pinochet's military regime ruled Chile between 1973 and 1990. A 1988 plebiscite reintroduced democratic rule to Chile. Voter registration began in February, 1987 and remained open through August, 1988. This paper assesses to what extent participation in a referendum on democracy itself affects long-term voting behavior. We implement a regression discontinuity design comparing long run registration rates and voter turnout rates for those who were marginally age eligible to those who were marginally ineligible. We find that 1988 Plebiscite participation increased voter turnout three decades later in the 2017 presidential election by 1.7 percentage points and voting in 1988 increased participation by three decades later in the 2017 Presidential election. Subsequent Presidential elections did not have a sizable or statistically significant impact upon 2017 voter turnout. Given the low turnout rates prevalent in Chile, the Plebiscite effect is 5.8% of total turnout in the 2017 election. Effects are larger for men and for those without a high school degree and in counties with a higher left-wing vote share. Effect sizes are large enough to have been pivotal in most presidential elections from 1989 to 2010. Our results suggest that voter turnout persistence from participation in an initial democratic election can help explain one party dominance in recently democratized countries.
Fecha 6/06/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Catalina Franco - How does relative performance feedback affect beliefs and academic decisions? Evidence from a field experiment

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Catalina Franco, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract I conduct field and lab-in-the-field experiments, with students preparing for a college entrance exam, to identify how receiving relative performance feedback affects students’ beliefs, performance and academic decisions. I elicit beliefs from all students about relative performance in weekly practice tests and provide feedback to treated students about their actual standing in the score distribution at a test preparation center in Colombia. Combining the panel dataset collected from the experiment with administrative data, I study impacts on: (i) relative performance beliefs, (ii) academic investments, (iii) academic decisions, and (iv) performance. First, feedback makes bottom performers invest less in academic inputs like taking practice tests and study time. Second, I find that top- and bottom-performing students receiving feedback are less likely to take the entrance exam. Third, heterogeneous effects by gender indicate that women do not change investments but lead the negative effect on exam taking, and are much less likely to gain admission despite similar performance in practice tests. Fourth, beliefs elicited with an incentive compatible task do not match the beliefs revealed by students’ actions. Overall, my results shed light on the potential discouragement effects of informational interventions on students with low academic performance.
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Fecha 23/05/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Marcelo Bergolo - Earnings Responses of Top Labor Incomes to Tax Changes: Evidence from a Tax Reform in Uruguay

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Marcelo Bergolo, IECON-UDELAR
Coautores Gabriel Burdin (Leeds U), Mauricio De Rosa (PSE), Martín Leites (IECON-UDELAR), Matias Giaccobasso (UCLA)
Abstract In this paper, we analyze how top income earners respond to personal income tax using micro-based administrative tax records from Uruguay during the period 2009-2014. Our identification strategy exploits a reform to Uruguay’s progressive labor income tax schedule that generates differential changes in tax rates across very similar taxpayers at the top of the income distribution. Based on this exogenous source of variation and a diff-in-diff empirical strategy we estimate elasticities on three margins of behavioral responses –intensive, extensive, income shifting– to (one minus) the top labor income marginal tax rates change. Our results in the intensive margin suggest low elasticities for the whole sample of top incomes earners of around 0.03, although higher elasticities for the sample of self-employed (0.43). The extensive margin elasticities of labor income for all top incomes are slightly above 0.2. Finally, we present suggestive evidence of income shifting from labor income tax base to corporate tax base.
Fecha 14/05/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Leopoldo Fergusson - The political economy of conflict and peace-building in Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencistas Leopoldo Fergusson, Universidad de los Andes y Juan Vargas, Universidad del Rosario
Abstract Political obstacles to state building may explain the persistence of conflict and institutional weakness in Colombia. Based on our research from the past several years, we explore some of the reasons why several politically relevant sectors in Colombia encouraged, embraced, or at least did little to strengthen the state or change the country’s violent equilibrium. We highlight three broad mechanisms: The public good trap, the existence of political rents in a context of multiple dimensions and the vicious circle of clientelism and state weakness. Many of our arguments apply to post-conflict as well as to contexts other than Colombia, so constitute the building blocks of a political economy of conflict and peace building.
Fecha 09/05/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

José-Alberto Guerra - To segregate, or to discriminate - that is the question: Experiment on identity and social preferences

Lugar W-102
Conferencista José-Alberto Guerra, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor Mariana Blanco (Universidad del Rosario)
Abstract We study, in a laboratory experiment, whether individuals use various sources of social group identity to segregate or to discriminate when facing the Dictator and the Trust Game. The former game is characterised by a simple resource reallocation between individuals, while the latter is potentially beneficial to both parties. In particular, we study group identity originating either from shared preferences, socioeconomic status or skills, while our control treatment is random assignment into the group identity label. We observe that, when facing the Dictator game, senders belonging to the high socioeconomic status group segregate in favour of their in-group members, but discriminate against them, which suggests they avoid interacting with low type receivers to prevent foregoing larger amounts. In the Trust Game, high socioeconomic status senders also discriminate in favour of low type members, because they (wrongly) believe their in-group receivers are less trustworthy. We find some evidence that common preferences explain in-group bias in the Dictator game.
Fecha 07/05/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Jorge Higinio Maldonado - The Graduation approach for the reduction of extreme poverty: impact evaluation of Sembrando Oportunidades in Paraguay

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Jorge Higinio Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores Viviana Leon-Jurado (U Andes), John Gómez (Georgia State University), Daniel Rodríguez (U Andes), Laura Villa (U Andes)
Abstract Rural poverty, a widespread problem for the Paraguayan government over the last decade, led to the implementation, in 2016 and 2017, of the “Sembrando Oportunidades Familia por Familia” pilot program, an initiative based on the graduation approach to reducing the incidence of extreme poverty in rural areas. Evaluating the intervention results is essential to understanding the effectiveness of this approach in reducing poverty in the Paraguayan context, where the government is in charge of its implementation. For this evaluation, an instrumental-variable impact evaluation and a results evaluation were conducted, showing significant positive changes in the treated households’ productive capacity and savings behavior as well in their perception of wellbeing. Results are useful for the design of a program that can help to effectively overcome extreme poverty in this and other developing countries.
Fecha 25/04/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Miguel Urrutia y Christian Robles Báez - Mercado y gasto social. La agenda pendiente para la equidad en Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencistas Miguel Urrutia y Christian Robles Báez, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract Tanto la alta concentración del ingreso como el regular desempeño económico de Colombia se explican, por lo menos en alguna parte, por las falencias que ha tenido su política fiscal. En este sentido, el artículo señala que una política fiscal robusta, con mayor gasto social y mayor recaudo tributario, es esencial para mejorar la distribución del ingreso y contribuir a un mayor crecimiento económico. Sostenemos que no existe un dilema entre un mayor peso del Estado en la economía y un mayor fortalecimiento de los mercados, ni tampoco un dilema entre crecer o distribuir. Por el contrario, proveemos evidencia teórica y empírica que apoya la idea según la cual una mayor equidad económica favorece un crecimiento económico mayor y más estable. De este modo, la política fiscal está en capacidad de mejorar las condiciones sociales de la población más vulnerable, no solo redistribuyendo mejor los recursos disponibles, sino también haciendo que estos sean mayores en el largo plazo.
Fecha 11/04/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Jose David Lopez-Rivas - Spreading the word: The direct and spillover effects of a social norm intervention on residential water conservation behavior

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Jose David Lopez-Rivas, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract Interventions that use social norm information had proven effective in the context of natural resources and environmental concerns. However, the presence of interference between treatment units produces biased or lower-bound estimates. In pro-environmental programs, the interference could help to diffused desirable behaviors across the population. This paper reports the results of a randomized field experiment to promote residential water conservation behavior in Colombia. Using a multilevel design, I produce the variability to measure the direct effects (on the directly treated) and spillover effects (on the indirectly exposed). There are two levels of randomization. First, the level of saturation among villages, saturation refers to a percentage of the population that receives the treatment. Second, the treatment assignment across households. I find evidence that accounting for interference leads to higher effects than in previous interventions on residential water use. On average the treated reduce water use by 7.8% and spillovers by  4.9% compared to the control. The total causal effect is 16.5%. Moreover, the frequency of the report is essential; the information delivered up to 30 days has strong effects than 60 with a significant reduction of about 21.35% in the first. Regarding mechanisms, the spatial proximity is a strong channel to produce reinforcement effects on the treated, but weak in producing diffusion on spillovers.
Fecha 02/04/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Fernando Barrios Aguirre - Effects of innovative effort on different components of productivity: Evidence for the Colombian manufacturing industry

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Fernando Barrios Aguirre, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract This document focuses on estimating the effect of innovative effort on productivity, when it is disaggregated in terms of productive technical efficiency and other compo- nents associated with demand and unit input costs . These components are developed and estimated from panel data. I show that demand shocks are the elements where the innovative effort affects in greater proportion. These results will be analyzed from the annual manufacturing survey (EAM) between 2003-2012 and the surveys of innovation and technological development for the manufacturing industry (EDIT) provided by the DANE between 2008-2012.
Fecha 28/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Héctor Galindo - The Role of Religious Competition in Non-Religious Conflicts: Evidence from Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Héctor Galindo, Universidad Javeriana
Abstract This paper studies the role of competition between religions in non-religious armed conflicts. The study focuses on Colombia, a deeply religious country which for more than 50 years experienced non-religious internal armed conflict, and which in the last few decades witnessed an intense increase in religious competition.  Two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences estimates show that establishing the first non-Catholic church in a municipality with a pronounced Catholic history substantially increases attacks by a left-wing guerrilla group. The effect appears to be persistent, or even increasing, over time. The estimates are robust to the use of a causally interpretable interaction-weighted estimator (Abraham and Sun, 2018) that reweights observations to undo the weighting implied by OLS in the presence of fixed effects. Further analysis suggests that the increase in guerilla attacks is associated with the expectation among guerilla groups that their membership will decline as a consequence of more intense competition for religious adherents.
Fecha 26/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Samuel Jaramillo González - Producción no mercantil en la economía capitalista

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Samuel Jaramillo González, Universidad de los Andes
Abstract Este texto busca contribuir a la interpretación sobre la presencia muy notable en las sociedades capitalistas contemporáneas de actividades productivas de bienes y servicios que no son mercantiles. En las familias de los trabajadores contemporáneos algunos de sus miembros se dedican de manera exclusiva a generar a través del auto-suministro bienes y servicios que son decisivos para para la reproducción de todos los miembros de los hogares. E incluso los individuos que desarrollan tareas mercantiles estables, sean ellos asalariados o agentes mercantiles simples, dedican una parte apreciable de su tiempo adicional a realizar tareas de auto-suministro que no son remuneradas mercantilmente. Como en general los fenómenos económicos que no son monetarios tienden a ser invisibles, se tiene la impresión de que el peso de estas actividades no mercantiles es algo marginal. Pero estadísticas como los sondeos sobre el uso del tiempo muestran un panorama muy distinto. En términos globales en los hogares el tiempo de trabajo no remunerado tiende a exceder el tiempo destinado a actividades mercantiles. E incluso los individuos con vínculos laborables mercantiles estables, además de su jornada laboral pagada, trabajan un 50% más de tiempo en tareas de auto-suministro no mercantil. El enfoque de este texto parte de la noción de que este fenómeno no necesariamente está inducido por una lógica de comportamiento ajena a las referencias mercantiles. Nuestra tesis es que los trabajadores que están inmersos en una economía capitalista, sean ellos asalariados o agentes mercantiles simples, realizan decisiones entre dedicar su tiempo al trabajo mercantil o al autosuministro no mercantil, a partir de consideraciones mercantiles. Se aborda este tema utilizando dos variantes de la teoría del valor trabajo (con versiones relativamente peculiares, hay que advertirlo): la Teoría del Valor Trabajo Comandado de Adam Smith y la Teoría del Valor Trabajo Abstracto de Marx, en su versión de la Nueva Aproximación. Y sin embargo, a pesar de que estas elecciones siguen una lógica mercantil, está sobre-determinadas por circunstancias globales de relaciones de fuerza entre las clases, tanto en el plano estrictamente económico, como en lo jurídico y en lo ideológico. Se examinan tres casos pertinentes de este fenómeno: la autoconstrucción de vivienda, muy extendida en los países periféricos actuales; el trabajo doméstico no remunerado, que afecta especialmente, aunque no de manera exclusiva a las mujeres; y la creciente práctica que algunos denominan “prosumo” que consiste en desplazar hacia el consumidor parte de los procesos productivos de los bienes adquiridos mercantilmente con el fin de reducir su precio monetario. El texto indaga sobre el papel que desempeña esta actividad no mercantil en la parte mercantil de la actividad laboral, y por lo tanto en aspectos claves como la explotación efectiva, la magnitud del salario y la tasa de ganancia.
Fecha 21/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Tomás Rodríguez - Robust Information Aggregation Through Voting

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Tomás Rodríguez, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores Rune Midjord (Copenhaguen Business School) Justin Valasek (Norwegian School of Economics)
Abstract Numerous theoretical studies have shown that information aggregation through voting is often fragile: Since the probability that any agent's vote influences the committee's decision becomes arbitrarily small in a large committee, voting behavior is very sensitive to the payoff structure. For example, when agents face payoffs that condition on their individual vote, then these vote-contingent payoffs drive voting behavior in large committees. In this paper, we consider a general model of voting behavior in large committees with vote-contingent payoffs and characterize the set of payoffs that lead to a unique equilibrium that aggregates information. Interestingly, we find that the existence of an equilibrium that aggregates information depends only on the ratio of relative payoffs agents receive for voting for the ex-post correct option given that the committee also selects the correct option. However, the uniqueness of the equilibrium that aggregates information depends on payoffs when the committee selects the incorrect option; for information aggregation to be robust, agents must be punished for voting with the committee for the incorrect option.
Fecha 19/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Juan Esteban Carranza - La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Juan Esteban Carranza, Banco de la República
Coautores Fernando Arias Rodríguez, Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, Camila Casas Lozano, Alejandra Ximena González Ramírez, Stefany Andrea Moreno Burbano, Juan Sebastián Vélez Velásquez (Banco de la República)
Abstract

Actualmente, el valor agregado de las firmas manufactureras colombianas representa un poco más del 10% del PIB que, sumado a sus cadenas de valor, constituye alrededor de la tercera parte de la economía colombiana.

Desde el año 2000, la producción manufacturera colombiana ha tenido un crecimiento sostenido, solamente interrumpido entre 2008 y 2009 por la crisis financiera internacional, y con una recuperación posterior a tasas de crecimiento relativamente bajas.

Aunque este patrón de crecimiento replica el de la industria mundial, el crecimiento desde el año 2000 de la industria colombiana ha sido superior al mundial y al latinoamericano. De hecho, el periodo de 2003 a 2009 tuvo las tasas de crecimiento industrial más altas observadas en la economía colombiana durante las últimas tres décadas.

En el documento ‘La industria colombiana en el siglo XXI’ respondemos a la pregunta ¿cuáles son los factores que determinaron el desempeño de las firmas manufactureras colombianas desde el año 2000?

Determinar estos factores resulta fundamental para el diseño de políticas públicas que promuevan efectivamente la capacidad productiva de la industria nacional. Para responder la pregunta, en este artículo abordamos el análisis desde dos ángulos: uno ‘macro’, enfocado en los datos agregados de la industria y las variables macroeconómicas; y otro ‘micro’, basado en datos desagregados, firma por firma. En ambos casos, el análisis está informado por un entendimiento teórico de los mecanismos que determinan el comportamiento de las empresas.

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Fecha 14/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Fabio Sánchez Torres - Los mejores parten pronto. Desempeño académico y el estatuto docente de 2002

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Fabio Sánchez Torres, Universidad de los Andes
Coautor Zelda Brutti, Universitat de Barcelona (UB)
Abstract En 2002, la carrera de los maestros de escuelas públicas colombianas se reformó a través de la introducción de un concurso de entrada selectiva y de nuevos incentivos de calidad (Decreto Ley 1278 de 2002).  Esta investigación estima el efecto de esta reforma sobre el rendimiento de los estudiantes en la escuela secundaria (SABER 11). Se evidencia un efecto positivo y significativo - aunque pequeño - de la proporción de nuevos maestros en el rendimiento de los estudiantes. No obstante, este efecto positivo se atribuye a los maestros con los mayores puntajes en la prueba de ingreso a la carrera docente, siendo este resultado robusto a diferentes especificaciones econométricas. En adición,  se encuentra que los maestros con los mejores puntajes en la prueba de ingreso presentan menores tasas de supervivencia dentro del sistema educativo.
Fecha 12/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Marcela Meléndez - Diagnóstico sobre las brechas económicas de género en Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Marcela Meléndez, ECONESTUDIO y Universidad de los Andes
Coautor Nicolás Peña, ECONESTUDIO
Abstract Las mujeres colombianas se encuentran en situación de desventaja frente a los hombres en los mercados de trabajo. Participan un 27% menos en la fuerza laboral, tienen una tasa de desempleo promedio 71% más alta, y trabajan semanalmente en promedio 17% más horas. Además, en promedio el 38% de sus horas de trabajo corresponden a trabajo no remunerado -oficios del hogar y tareas de cuidado de menores, enfermos y discapacitados, con lo cual, aunque su ingreso promedio por hora es sólo 2% más bajo que el de los hombres, su ingreso promedio mensual es 17% más bajo. Esto contrasta con los hombres que tienen jornadas de trabajo en promedio más cortas (de 55 frente a 64 horas por semana) y dedican solo 13% de su tiempo de trabajo a oficios no remunerados. El único fenómeno que afecta por igual a hombres y mujeres en promedio y frente al que no puede decirse con contundencia que hay una brecha de género ante a la cual es imperante actuar, es la informalidad (la diferencia entre las tasas de informalidad de mujeres y hombres es de 1%). El análisis de las brechas para distintos grupos de la población identificados por su rango de edad, su nivel educativo máximo alcanzado, la zona urbana o rural donde habitan, el lugar en el que se encuentran sobre la distribución de ingreso, el número de menores que tienen a su cargo, la rama de actividad en la que trabajan y la ocupación en la que se desempeñan, muestra que en los promedios se esconde un país muy heterogéneo, donde algunos grupos se encuentran en franca desventaja. Los números muestran que el vinculo de las mujeres con los mercados laborales mejora con el nivel educativo y la riqueza del hogar, y es mejor para las mujeres que no tienen o tienen pocos menores a cargo y para las mujeres que habitan en la zona urbana.
Fecha 07/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Francesco Amodio - Bribes vs. Taxes: Market Structure and Incentives

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Francesco Amodio, McGill University
Coautores Jieun Choi, World Bank / Giacomo De Giorgi, University of Geneva / Aminur Rahman, World Bank
Abstract Firms in developing countries often make informal payments to tax officials. These bribes raise the cost of doing business, and the price charged to consumers. To decrease these costs, we design a feedback incentive scheme for business tax inspectors that rewards them according to the anonymous evaluation submitted by inspected firms. We show theoretically that feedback incentives decrease the bribe size, but make firms facing a more inelastic demand more attractive for inspectors. A tilted scheme that attaches higher weights to the evaluation of smaller firms limits the scope for targeting and decreases the bribe size to a lesser extent. We test both schemes in a field experiment in the Kyrgyz Republic. Our intervention reduces bribes, average cost, and the price firms charge to consumers. Since fewer firms substitute bribes for taxes, tax revenues increase. Our results show that firms pass-through bribes to consumers, and that market structure shapes the relationship between firms and tax officials.
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Fecha 05/03/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Javier Guillermo Gómez - The natural interest rate in Latin America

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Javier Guillermo Gómez, Banco de la República y Universidad del Rosario
Abstract The natural interest rate is a critical building block in the evaluation of a monetary policy stance. We estimate the natural interest rate for the five largest Latin American economies. We follow the method in Laubach and Williams (2003), complemented with rational and survey inflation expectations and adapted to Bayesian maximum likelihood estimation. The model is the standard neo-Keynesian model, complemented with equations for the natural interest rate in nominal terms and the rational inflation expectations. We find that in real terms the natural interest rate trends down and remains above zero in the larger economies (Brazil, Mexico and Colombia), while it remains without a noticeable trend although closer to zero in the smaller economies (Chile and Peru). We also find that in nominal terms, the natural rate trends down, in most economies a consequence of the drop in inflation and inflation expectations. Regarding the policy implications, the natural interest rate still does not pose a critical challenge for monetary policy in Latin America, as it does in advanced economies (Ball 2014). Nonetheless, in Chile and Peru the natural rate in nominal terms is just above 2 and 3 percent, respectively, offering narrow room for expansionary monetary policy.
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Fecha 26/02/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Jose Maria Barrero - The Micro and Macro of Managerial Beliefs

Lugar C-307
Conferencista Jose Maria Barrero, Stanford University
Abstract I study how biases in managerial beliefs affect firm performance and the macro-economy. Using confidential survey data to test whether US managers have biased beliefs, I establish three facts. (1) Managers are neither over-optimistic nor pessimistic: their forecasts for future sales growth are correct on average. (2) Managers are overconfident: they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic or pessimistic depending on whether the firm is growing or shrinking at the time of the forecast. To quantify the micro and macro implications of these facts, I build and estimate a general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms may have biased beliefs and make dynamic hiring decisions subject to adjustment costs. Biased managers in the model overreact to changes in their firm’s profitability because they believe profitability is more persistent and stable than it really is. The model thus implies that a typical firm’s value would increase by 1.9 percent if it hired a rational manager. At the macro level, pervasive overreaction results in too many resources spent on reallocation. Welfare would be higher by 1 percent in an economy with rational managers
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Fecha 20/02/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Santiago Caicedo - "The Effects of Mandating Training in Firms: Theory and Evidence from the Colombian Apprenticeship Program"

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Santiago Caicedo, Universidad de los Andes
Coautores Miguel Espinosa (Universitat Pompeu Fabra Arthur Seibold - University of Mannheim)
Abstract We study the effect of apprenticeship programs on firms and welfare, using novel administrative data on the universe Colombian manufacturing firms with at least 10 workers, and a unique reform to apprenticeship regulation. The reform simultaneously establishes apprentice quotas that vary discontinuously in firm size and lowers apprentices' wages. We begin by documenting that the policy is successful in increasing the number of trained apprentices more than threefold. However, the reform induces significant firm size distortions driven by heterogeneous firm responses. In sectors with high skill requirements, firms avoided hiring apprentices decreasing their size and bunching just below the regulatory thresholds. Firms in low-skilled sectors, on the other hand, increase their size and bunch just above the regulation thresholds in order to be able to hire more apprentices. As a consequence, the regulation results in most apprentices being trained in low-skilled sectors. We develop a simple theoretical model featuring heterogeneous training costs across sectors in order to rationalize and quantify these empirical findings. The key insight of the model is firms that train apprentices incur in an opportunity cost of spending time teaching and not producing. Therefore, when training takes more time, the opportunity cost is larger and firms avoid hiring apprentices.  As training apprentices in high-skill sectors takes longer than in low-skill sectors. Finally, we use the model to analyze the welfare consequences of the regulation and study counterfactual policies.
Fecha 19/02/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Adnan Khan - Rules and the Allocation of Authority in Organizations: A Field Experiment with Bureaucrats

Lugar W-101
Conferencista Adnan Khan, Harvard Kennedy School
Coautores Oriana Bandiera (LSE), Andrea Prat (Columbia), Michael Best (Columbia)
Abstract Organizations use combinations of explicit performance incentives and rules prescribing behavior to motivate workers. However, monitoring of adherence to rules creates a second set of agents subject to their own agency problems. In this paper we provide a formal model of the effectiveness of performance incentives and worker autonomy in improving organizational performance. The model highlights the importance of the relative alignment of frontline workers and their monitors with organizational goals.  We implemented a large-scale randomized control trial with the government of Punjab, Pakistan to provide the first experimental evidence on the effects of incentives and autonomy in a bureaucracy. We find that increasing procurement officers’ autonomy vis-à-vis their auditors improves prices paid by 7% throughout the fiscal year without reducing quality. Performance pay incentives reduce prices early in the year, but increase them at the end of the year when auditors have greater hold-up power, making the average effect of incentives zero. The results suggest auditors are less concerned with saving public money than procurement officers are. The results have important implications for the design of monitoring and anti-corruption policies.
Fecha 15/02/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Stephanie Majerowicz - Can Teaching be Taught? Experimental Evidence from a Teacher Coaching Program in Peru

Lugar ML-512
Conferencista Stephanie Majerowicz, Harvard University
Coautor Ricardo Montero (University of Minnesota)
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Fecha 01/02/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Juan Sebastián Galán - Tied to the Land? Intergenerational Mobility and Agrarian Reform in Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Juan Sebastián Galán, Harvard University
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Fecha 31/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Jonathan G. Malacarne - The Farmer and The Fates: Locus of Control and Investment in a Stochastic Production Process

Lugar ML-513
Conferencista Jonathan G. Malacarne, University of California, Davis
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Fecha 30/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Valeria Rueda - Sex and the Mission. The conflicting effects of early Christian missions on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Valeria Rueda, "Sciences Po, Paris
Coautor Julia Cagé
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Fecha 29/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Román Andrés Zárate - Social and Cognitive Peer Effects: Experimental Evidence from Selective High Schools in Peru

Lugar W-101
Conferencista Román Andrés Zárate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Fecha 28/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Adriana Corredor-Waldron - Medicare Reimbursement Policy and Capacity Constraints:Evidence from Nursing Homes

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Adriana Corredor-Waldron, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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Fecha  25/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Santiago Velez-Ferro - Overcoming the Rural Hospital Theorem: Compulsory Social Service Allocation in Colombia

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Santiago Velez-Ferro, University of Maryland
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Fecha 22/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Margaret Triyana - Commitment Contracts and School Competition for Smoking  Prevention in Indonesia

Lugar ML-512
Conferencista Margaret Triyana, University of Notre Dame
Coautor Justin S. White (University of California)
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Fecha 18/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Javier Romero Haaker - Price Shocks and Child  Mortality: Evidence from Anti-Drug Policies in Peru

Lugar ML-608
Conferencista Javier Romero Haaker, Duke University
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Fecha 17/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Manuel Fernandez Sierra - Women's Labor Force Participation and the Distribution of the Gender Wage Gap

Lugar W-102
Conferencista Manuel Fernandez Sierra, University of Essex - IZA
Coautor Sonia R. Bhalotra (University of Essex)
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Fecha 15/01/2019
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.


end faq