CEDE
-
2015
Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S.
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Javier Miranda, U.S. Census Bureau Coautores Ryan A. Decker (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System), John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER) y Ron S. Jarmin (U.S. Census Bureau) Archivo 
Ver documentoFecha 10/11/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Gustavo Javier Canavire Bacarreza Coautor Merlin Hanauer (Somona State University) Abstract Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts. Fecha 03/11/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Hotspots policing in a high crime environment: An experimental evaluation in Medellin
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Daniel Mejía, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautores Daniela Collazos (UniAndes), Eduardo Garcia (UniAndes), Daniel Ortega (CAF), Santiago Tobon (UniAndes) Abstract We present the results of an experimental evaluation of a hotspots policing intervention in the city of Medellín, Colombia. After identifying a large group of small geographic units (street segments) where crime is highly concentrated, a randomly selected group of street segments received a higher dosage of police patrolling. More precisely, patrolling times in treated hotspots increased from about 55 minutes/day to about 105 minutes/day (a 90% increase in police patrolling/presence in treated crime hotspots). The results of this intervention show that some crimes were significantly reduced, especially in crime hotpots with high levels of compliance of the required dosage of police patrolling times imposed by the experiment. Furthermore, the results also show that, if anything, there was a diffusion of benefits towards neighboring street segments of treated hotpots. Fecha 29/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. “Patriotic Shocks, Inter-Ethnic Trust, and Ethnic Identification: Evidence from African Football”
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Ruben Durante (Sciences Po) Abstract This research investigates how shocks to patriotic pride affect ethnic identification and inter-ethnic trust in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining individual survey data for over 35,000 respondents in 20 countries and over 10 years we document that respondents interviewed in the days following a victory of their country’s national football team are 5% less likely to report a strong sense of ethnic identity than respondent interviewed before the match. The estimated effect - which corresponds to a 25% decrease in the average probability of ethnic self-identification - is robust to controlling for country-year, language group, and match fixed effect and is especially pronounced for ethnically diverse countries. We find that national team’s football victories also reinforce generalized trust, with particular regard to inter-ethnic trust, but have no impact on self-reported trust in the government or support for the incumbent. Our findings suggest that even in regions where ethnic tensions are historically high, national identity and inter-ethnic trust are rather “malleable” and can be affected by transitory shocks. Fecha 27/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Distance to the sea, fish availability and height
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Rafael Santos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Mark R. Rosenzweig (Yale University) Abstract Investment in children human capital depend on the environment where parents live. Investments in food consumption might be higher in places where food is cheaper or more easily available. In this paper we investigate the implications that living closer to the sea has on children and adult height. Using new data from Colombian IDS that each year record the height and place of birth of every Colombian citizen turning eighteen years old, we show that adults living closer to the sea are taller net of race and wealth. This relationship holds even when we restrict the sample to coastal municipalities and exploit variation in fish availability across them. Following medical research that shows that protein intake by 9 months of age correlates with later life height and that this correlation is driven by that of protein intake and height during early childhood, we investigate the relationship between distance to the sea and children's height using the Colombian DHS and ELCA databases. With these databases we confirm that children between 1 and 5 years of age are taller if they live closer to the sea. We illustrate two channels through which these results might be explained: First, using DHS data, we find that children who live closer to the sea are more likely to eat fish and are also more likely to eat animal protein (inclusive of fish). Second, using prices data from Colombian thirteen main cities, we show that cities closer to the sea have lower prices for fish but not for non-tradable goods nor for tradable goods which production function does not depend on access to the sea. Fecha 20/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Heterogeneidad estructural en el capitalismo. Una mirada desde la teoría del valor trabajo abstracto
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Samuel Jaramillo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Abstract El trabajo propone una interpretación de la heterogeneidad que se constata en la estructura productiva de las sociedades capitalistas concretas como la coexistencia en un mismo mercado de agentes propiamente capitalistas y agentes mercantiles simples que compiten entre sí. El texto se concentra en el análisis de dos aspectos de esto: a) la competencia ejercida por los agentes capitalistas sobre los agentes mercantiles simples, que de manera permanente los está descomponiendo y desplazando de espacios de producción, lo que eventualmente hace colapsar a estos últimos y los reduce a la condición de proletarios. b) La persistencia de agentes mercantiles simples que resisten esta competencia, y no solamente como algo inercial, sino como resultado de la misma acción del capital, que pone en cuestión la previsión de Marx mismo sobre la tendencia del capitalismo a convertirse en una sociedad compuesta exclusivamente por una oligarquía de capitalistas y una mayoría homogénea de proletarios, mientras que las terceras clases serían liquidadas. Este análisis sucinto se realiza con un modelo de un solo bien, y con ilustración numérica para la primera parte, y con un modelo sencillo de álgebra simultánea para la segunda. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 13/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. “Population Diversity, Division of Labor, and the Emergence of Trade and the State”
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Ömer Özak (Southern Methodist University) Abstract This research explores the prevalence and emergence of trade and the state in pre-modern societies. Based on a novel dataset combining geocoded ethnographic and genetic data at the ethnic level, this research exploits the exogenous variation in population diversity generated by the “Out-of-Africa" migration of anatomically modern humans to causally establish that higher levels of population diversity were conducive to economic specialization of labor and the emergence of trade-related institutions that, in turn, facilitated the historical formation of states. This research provides suggestive evidence that regions historically inhabited by pre-modern societies with high levels of economic specialization are more developed and have a larger occupational heterogeneity today. Fecha 08/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Institutional Investors Heterogeneity and Firm Valuation: Evidence from Latin America
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Carlos Pombo, Facultad de Administración - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Maria Camila De-La-Hoz, (Facultad de Administración - Universidad de los Andes) Abstract This article analyses how the corporate valuation of Latin American firms is affected by the presence of an institutional blockholder investor. The study uses a data set of 562 firms from six Latin American countries for the period 1997 to 2011. We found that the presence of an institutional investor has a positive effect of 8% on firm value. This premium increase to 24% for the cases where there is blockholder coalition with an institutional investor. After dividing the sample by investor type, we found that the presence of a grey investor has a negative effect on firm valuation. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 06/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. School Choice: Nash Implementation of Stable Assignments through Rank-Priority Rules
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Paula Jaramillo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautores Cagatay Kayi (Universidad del Rosario) y Flip Klijn (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) y Barcelona GSE) Abstract We study the school choice problem where students are to be matched to schools through a clearinghouse. We focus on the class of rank priority mechanisms, to which the Boston (or immediate acceptance) mechanism belongs. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the Nash implementation of the set of stable matchings. Fecha 01/10/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Javier Guillermo Gómez P., Banco de la República Coautores Dominique Guillaume (IMF) y Kadir Tanyeri (IMF) Abstract The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output gap corresponding to unobserved systemic risk associated with major financial events. In addition, systemic risk shocks are shown to be important drivers of output gaps while country risk premium shocks can have important effects on the trade balance. Commodity prices, in particular the price of oil, are shown to be demand driven. The model performs well at one- and four-quarter horizons compared to a survey of analysts' forecasts. In addition, systemic risk shocks explain a large share of the forecast variance for the world output gap, country output gaps, the price of oil, and country risk premiums. The importance of systemic risk shocks lends support for financial surveillance with a systemic focus. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 15/09/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Can the Wounds of War be Healed? Experimental Evidence on Reconciliation in Sierra Leone
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Oeindrila Dube, New York University Coautores Jacobus Cilliers (Georgetown University) and Bilal Siddiqi (World Bank) Abstract Wars destroy not just physical capital but also social capital, often severing ties among individuals. To recover from wars and rebuild these ties, many countries undertake truth and reconciliation efforts. We examine the consequences of one such program in Sierra Leone, designed and implemented by a Sierra Leonean NGO. This program sets up community-level forums in which victims detail war atrocities, and perpetrators confess to war crimes. We use random assignment to study its impact across 200 villages. We find that reconciliation has both positive and negative consequences. On the one hand, it leads to greater forgiveness of perpetrators, and strengthens social capital: social networks were larger and people were more community-oriented, contributing more to public goods in treated villages. On the other hand, these benefits came at a substantial cost: the reconciliation process also worsened psychological health, increasing depression, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder in these same villages. All of the effects, both positive and negative, also persisted for nearly three years after the intervention. Our findings indicate that policymakers need to restructure reconciliation processes in ways that reduce their negative psychological costs, while retaining their positive societal benefits. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 10/09/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Endogenous Time Horizon and Behavioral Poverty Trap: Theory and Evidence from Mozambique
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Rachid Laajaj, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Abstract This paper provides a model where a long-term planning horizon improves economic decisions but also increases the salience of anticipated future utility. Hence, a gloomy future induces the agent to shorten her time horizon in order to reduce distress caused by the anticipation of poverty, at the cost of worsening her realized future consumption, resulting in a behavioral poverty trap where poverty and shortsightedness reinforce each other. The paper also provides primary empirical evidence of the endogenous determination of time horizon and of the existence of a behavioral poverty trap. Using a randomized controlled trial in Mozambique that provided agro-input subsidies and a Matched Savings program among 1,546 rural households, I show that improvement in economic prospects resulted in a significant increase in the planning horizon of the poor beneficiaries. Moreover, the increase in horizon significantly predicts the increase in asset accumulation of beneficiaries during the two years following the intervention. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 08/09/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. A Demand for Air Quality: a Case Study in Bogotá, Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Fernando Carriazo, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes Coautor John Alexander Gómez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes Abstract According to the World Health Organization, Bogotá is one of the most polluted urban areas in Latin America. Pollution levels surpass most ambient quality standards yet economic benefits from reducing air pollution are not well known. Our study contributes to welfare analysis of air quality improvements in Bogotá by identifying a demand function for air quality from a second stage hedonic model. This model combines air pollution quantities and implicit price information to identify a marginal willingness to pay function for ambient quality. To calculate potential welfare effects derived from pollution control policies, we further estimate consumer surplus measures due to the compliance of emission standards for three counterfactual scenarios: 1) the U.S Environmental Pollution Agency (EPA) standard, 2) the World Health Organization (WHO) standard, and 3) the proposed local standards for annual average of PM10. Fecha 03/09/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Inestabilidad Tributaria y Crecimiento Económico
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Hernando Zuleta, Facultad de Economia - Universidad de los Andes Coautores Federico Filippinni y Marc Hofstetter, Facultad de Economia - Universidad de los Andes Abstract La frecuencia de los cambios en el estatuto tributarios genera, por los menos, tres problemas: (i) Cada cambio implica una modificación a los incentivos económicos que afecta las decisiones de consumo e inversión y la estructura sectorial de la economía. Por supuesto, estos cambios generan costos de ajuste y de transacción. Adicionalmente, si la reforma afecta incentivos de ahorro o inversión tiene también efectos negativos sobre la acumulación y el crecimiento de largo plazo. En la medida en que las reformas tributarias son más frecuentes aumenta la frecuencia con la que debemos pagar los costos mencionados. (ii) La posibilidad de nuevos cambios genera incertidumbre y esta afecta las decisiones de los agentes económicos. En la medida en que ignoramos las reglas futuras de juego estamos menos dispuestos a emprender proyectos de mediano y largo plazo. (iii) Muchas veces los cambios aumentan la extensión y complejidad del estatuto tributario lo cual genera confusión y hace difícil la toma de decisiones por parte de los agentes económicos.
El propósito central de este trabajo es cuantificar el efecto de la inestabilidad tributaria sobre la actividad económica y estudiar los efectos en el tiempo (dinámicos) de la inestabilidad tributaria.
Para cuantificar los dos primeros efectos se construye un índice de inestabilidad tributaria y se analiza su efecto sobre la actividad real. Para cuantificar el tercer efecto se toma el número de conceptos emitidos por la autoridad de recaudo (la DIAN) con posterioridad a la modificación de cada tributo. Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que cada cambio mayor en la estructura tributario tiene un efecto negativo y significativo sobre el crecimiento económico de 5 por ciento. Del mismo modo, cada aumento en los conceptos emitidos por la DIAN tiene un efecto negativo sobre el crecimiento. Además, estos índices están negativamente correlacionados con la tasa de inversión y con el Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC).Fecha 01/09/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. La economía colombiana ante el cambio en el panorama externo: Argumentos para una reforma tributaria
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Leonardo Villar, Fedesarrollo Abstract La charla estará dirigida a mostrar el impacto que han tenido sobre la economía colombiana, y sobre sus finanzas públicas, el drástico cambio en el entorno internacional asociado al fin del super-ciclo de precios de los commodities y a la perspectiva de aumento en las tasas de interés en los Estados Unidos. En este marco, se mostrarán los argumentos que hacen indispensable una nueva reforma tributaria y se discutirán algunas de las características que debe tener esa reforma para corregir los enormes problemas que tiene el sistema tributario colombiano actual. Fecha 27/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Over-Caution of Large Committees of Experts
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Tomás Rodríguez, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona Coautor Rune Midjord, University of Conpenhagen y Justin Valasek, WZB Berlin Abstract In this paper, we consider a committee of experts that decides whether to approve or reject a proposed innovation on behalf of society. In addition to a payoff linked to the adequateness of the committee’s decision, each expert receives a disesteem payoff if he/she voted in favor of an ill-fated innovation. An example is FDA committees, where committee members can be exposed to a disesteem payoff (negative) if they vote to pass a drug that proves to be fatal for some users. Under the standard voting model, we show that information is aggregated in large committees provided disesteem payoffs are not overly large. However, we go on to document an empirically-relevant discontinuity in the standard model: if an arbitrarily large number of signals does not perfectly reflect the state of the world then, no matter how small the disesteem payoffs are, information aggregation fails in large committees and the committee rejects the innovation almost surely, providing an explanation for over-caution in committees. Finally, we extend the model to include a disesteem payoff when an agent votes to reject a beneficial innovation, and provide closed form expressions capturing the limit behavior of the committee for generic combinations of the two kinds of disesteem payoffs. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 25/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Entrepreneurship and Employment: Human Capital and Financing
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Felipe Balmaceda, Universidad Diego Portales – UDP Abstract Financing constraints and human capital are the biggest concerns impacting potential entrepreneurs around the world. Given the important role that entrepreneurship is believed to play in the process of economic growth, alleviating financing constraints and increasing human capital for would-be entrepreneurs is also an important goal for policymakers worldwide. This paper puts forth a rationale for entrepreneurship by employees of already established firms, which is one of the most common sources of new firms in many industries. We show that the value of entrepreneurship is such that general human capital and financial development are strategic complements, while firms' investments in general human capital and financial development are strategic substitutes. Firms underinvest in general human capital and therefore there is too little entrepreneurship. Despite the fact that improving financial development lowers firms' investment in human capital due to strategic substitutability, it increases entrepreneurship. These results suggest that policies aimed at deepening financial development will have a major impact on entrepreneurship only if they go hand-in hand with policies aimed at incentivizing human capital investment. Fecha 18/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. La Gran Depresión y la Industrialización en Colombia, 1930-1953
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Adolfo Meisel-Roca, Banco de la República Coautores Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri y Maria Teresa Ramirez-Giraldo (Banco de la Republica) Abstract This paper analyzes the role of the Great Depression and protectionism in the Colombian industrialization of the early 1930s as well as the role of other determinants in the rapid industrialization that took place during the period 1934-1953. We conclude that the market pushed industrialization by reducing costs, generating economies of scale, learning by doing, giving place to agglomeration economies, and rapid technological change. This paper also examines the structure of the Colombian manufacturing sector in 1945, which was the result of the deep socio-economic transformations that took place in the previous decade. The results indicate that the industrialization process was uneven across regions, and that it was spatially concentrated. Estimations of a production function for industry in 1945 show that there were important differences in factor elasticities and productivities among sectors and regions, which led to different regional patterns of industrialization. In addition, the results indicate that labor productivity in 1945 was positively and significantly related to education and capital, whereas it was negatively related to the unskilled workers and the age of the firms. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 11/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Distributional Incentives in an Equilibrium Model of Domestic Sovereign Default
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Enrique G. Mendoza, University of Pennsylvania, NBER and PIER Coautor Pablo D’Erasmo, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Abstract Europe’s debt crisis resembles historical episodes of outright default on domestic public debt about which little research exists. This paper proposes a theory of domestic sovereign default based on distributional incentives affecting the welfare of risk-averse debt- and non-debt holders. A utilitarian government cannot sustain debt if default is costless. If default is costly, debt with default risk is sustainable, and debt falls as concentration of debt ownership rises. A government favoring bond holders can also sustain debt, with debt rising as ownership becomes more concentrated. These results are robust to adding foreign investors, redistributive taxes, or a second asset. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 06/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence on adult noncognitive investments in Liberia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Christopher Blattman, Columbia University Coautor Jeannie Annan, International Rescue Committee Abstract States and aid agencies use employment programs to rehabilitate high-risk men in the belief that peaceful work opportunities will deter them from crime and violence. Rigorous evidence is rare. We experimentally evaluate a program of agricultural training, capital inputs, and counseling for Liberian ex-fighters who were illegally mining or occupying rubber plantations. 14 months after the program ended, men who accepted the program offer increased their farm employment and profits, and shifted work hours away from illicit activities. Men also reduced interest in mercenary work in a nearby war. Finally, some men did not receive their capital inputs but expected a future cash transfer instead, and they reduced illicit and mercenary activities most of all. The evidence suggests that illicit and mercenary labor supply responds to small changes in returns to peaceful work, especially future and ongoing incentives. But the impacts of training alone, without capital, appear to be low. Fecha 04/08/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. "Testing the Signaling vs. Human Capital Theory: Evidence from a reform in Colombia’s top University"
Lugar W-102 Conferencista María Carolina Arteaga, estudiante de doctorado en UCLA Abstract In this paper I test the signaling and human capital theories in education at the college level. I exploit a reform at Universidad de los Andes in Colombia that in 2006 reduced from 4.5 to 4 years the time and courses required to earn a degree in economics and business. During this period, the size of the entering class and the average high school exit test scores remained the same, indicating the quantity and quality of students were not affected by the reform. Thus, the reform decreased human capital exogenously while holding the value of the education signal constant. This constitutes an ideal set up to learn about signaling vs. human capital. Using administrative data on wages and college attendance, I find that wages fell by approximately 11% in economics, and 7% in business. These results suggest that human capital plays an important role in wage determination, and reject a pure signaling model. In addition, comparing this number to an OLS estimate that combines both human capital and signaling effects, my results imply that human capital represents 99% of the return in schooling in economics and 65% in business. Fecha 28/07/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Carry Trade and Monetary Policy in Latin America
Lugar SD-503 Conferencista José Ignacio López- HEC Paris Coautor Virginia Olivella - Banque de France Abstract Since the end of the 90s, many Central Banks in Latin America have adopted inflation targeting and used short-term interest rates as their main policy instrument. In this paper we discuss the relationship between short-term interest rates and exchange rates for 5 Latin American countries in the context of a model with preferences for early resolution of uncertainty and time-varying risk-premium. We find that differences in monetary policy between the US and Latin America can help to explain the excess returns of some of the currencies of the region. Fecha 05/06/2015 Hora 11:00 am. a 12:30 pm. A Signal of Altruistic Motivation for Foreign Aid: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Test
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Andrea Civelli, University of Arkansas Coautores Andrew W. Horowitz, University of Arkansas. Arilton Teixeira, FUCAPE Business School Abstract We develop a theoretical model showing that countercyclical transfers from a wealthy donor to a poorer recipient generate a signal of altruistic donor motivation. Using OECD foreign aid (ODA) data we find the signal present in approximately one-sixth of a large set of donor-recipient pairs. We then undertake two out-of-model exercises to validate the signal: a logit regression of signal determinants and the growth rffects of ODA from signal-positive pairs compared to non-signal bearers. The logit indicates our signal meaningfully distinguishes donor-recipient pairs by characteristics typically associated with altruism. The growth exercise shows ODA from signal bearers displays stronger reverse causation and more positive long-run effects. These results contribute to understanding, and control for, endogeneity in the distribution of ODA. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 12/05/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Costas Meghir, Yale University, NBER and Institute for Fiscal Studies Coautores Orazio Attanasio, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies; Sarah Cattan, Institute for Fiscal Studies; Emla Fitzsimons, UCL Institute of Education and Institute for Fiscal Studies, and Marta Rubio-Codina, Institute for Fiscal Studies and Inter-American Development Bank Abstract We examine the channels through which a randomized early childhood intervention in Colombia led to significant gains in cognitive and socio-emotional skills among a sample of disadvantaged children. We estimate production functions for cognitive and socio-emotional skills as a function of maternal skills and child's past skills, as well as material and time investments that are treated as endogenous. The effects of the program can be fully explained by increases in parental investments, which have strong effects on outcomes and are complementary to both maternal skills and child's past skills. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 07/05/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Los docentes, las TICs y los resultados educativos: evidencia para Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencistas Fabio Sánchez y Tatiana Velasco, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Darío Maldonado, Universidad de los Andes Abstract Desde 2004, “Computadores para Educar”, un programa nacional en Colombia que equipa a colegios con computadores dándole acceso a la tecnología a los estudiantes, también ha capacitado a los docentes en el uso de las TICs en la enseñanza. Para 2014, más de 41,000 escuelas de las 46,000 existentes en Colombia han recibido computadores por el programa. Mientras tanto, de los 386,000 docentes del sistema educativo público, cerca de 74,000 han sido capacitados en TICs. Esta investigación tiene como propósito evaluar el efecto que estos docentes capacitados en TICs tienen sobre la tasa de deserción y el desempeño en pruebas estandarizadas de los estudiantes. Encontramos que mayor proporción de docentes capacitados en TICs en un área particular, mejora el desempeño de los estudiantes en dicha área (matemáticas, química, física, etc.) y que reduce la deserción. Los resultados indican que la presencia de docentes capacitados en TICs la tasa de deserción escolar y mejora el desempeño de los estudiantes en las pruebas SABER 11. Los resultados son robustos a distintas especificaciones, incluso luego de controlar por la razón computador-estudiantes en cada colegio. Estos resultados son evidencia de que lo que importa para el desempeño académico no es el acceso de los estudiantes a las TICs y los computadores, sino la capacitación de los docentes en el uso de las TICs para la enseñanza. Fecha 05/05/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Migration, Roads, and Labor Market Integration: Evidence from a Planned Capital City
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Jaqueline Oliveira, Economics Department - Clemson University Coautor Melanie Morten — Stanford University Abstract Wages in developing countries differ greatly across sector and across space. In Brazil, the average wage in a municipality at the 90th percentile of the wage distribution is 3.2 times larger than the average wage in a municipality at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution. Adjusting for individual characteristics, industry, and the cost of living, the 90/10 municipality wage gap is 2.1. These large differences in returns to labor present a spatial arbitrage puzzle: why do people not migrate to equalize wages across space? We propose one explanation: it is costly to move. We use the construction of a planned capital city, Brasilia, to generate plausibly exogenous variation in the national road network, and examine the role of roads in facilitating labor market integration. Using a database of gross inter-municipality flows, we construct and estimate a spatial equilibrium model where migration is costly. The results yield that access to roads is a key determinant of migration. Reducing the marginal cost of traveling by 50% would increase migration rates to 13%, from a base of 9.5%. This would yield an increase in mean welfare of 8.1%, and a reduction in the dispersion (standard deviation) by 6.2%. The effect is reduced by 4.3% once the general equilibrium effects of migration are computed. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 30/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Monetary policy implications for an oil-exporting economy of lower long-run international oil prices
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Franz Hamann, Director Departamento de Modelos Macroeconómicos, Banco de la República Coautores Jesús Bejarano y Diego Rodríguez, Banco de la República Abstract The sudden collapse of oil prices poses a challenge to inflation targeting central banks in oil exporting economies. This paper illustrates that challenge and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of permanent changes in oil prices in a small and open economy, in which oil represents an important fraction of its exports. We calibrate and estimate a variety of real and monetary dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models using Colombian historical data. We find that, in these artificial economies the macroeconomic effects can be large but vary depending on the structure of the economy. The main channels through which the shock passes to the economy come from the increased country risk premium, the real exchange rate depreciation, the sectoral reallocation of resources from nontradables to tradables and the sluggish adjustment of prices. Contrary to the conventional findings in the literature of the financial accelerator mechanism for single-good closed economies, in multiple-goods small open economies the financial accelerator does not play a significant role in magnifying macroeconomic fluctuations. The sectoral reallocation from nontradable to tradables diminishes the financial amplification mechanism. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 28/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Efecto Causal de la Calidad de la Universidad Sobre el Mercado Laboral: Evidencia Empírica para Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Hernando Bayona, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Asesora Catherine Rodríguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Universidad de Harvard Abstract Este documento utiliza los datos del proceso de admisión de una universidad privada altamente selectiva en Colombia para analizar el impacto de la asistencia a la universidad en los resultados de la trayectoria educativa en el mercado laboral de las personas. El proceso de selección de la universidad permite el uso de un diseño de regresión discontinua. Se estiman tanto los efectos de ser admitido en la universidad altamente selectiva (intent-to-treatment, ITT) como el haberse matriculado (treatment-on-the-treated, TOT). Los resultados muestran efectos positivos de ser admitido sobre la probabilidad de matricularse (13.8%), repetir créditos académicos (1,3%), y la probabilidad de graduación (7%). A pesar de no encontrar efectos estadísticamente significativos sobre el examen estandarizado de salida de la universidad, se encuentran efectos positivos sobre la probabilidad de empleo y los salarios de 6,9% y 3,9% respectivamente. Aunque los efectos estimados usando TOT tienen una magnitud mucho mayor que los encontrados con ITT, TOT es consistente con ITT en cuanto a significancia y signo. Estos efectos son diferenciales a través de programas académicos. Fecha 21/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Tax Debt Enforcement: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment in the United States
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Microsoft Research Coautor Ugo Troiano, University of Michigan Abstract We present theory and supportive evidence on the enforcement of tax delinquencies, which are tax debts incurred with the government. In our model, the tax agency relies on both a financial penalty as well as a shaming penalty that involves publishing the names of tax delinquents online. The latter penalty is becoming increasingly common. We show that when the tax agency focuses on private welfare as well as revenues, the optimal policy involves a mix of financial and shaming penalties. To flesh out the interplay between financial and shaming penalties, we conducted a field experiment with 35,000 tax delinquents in three U.S. states who owed half a billion dollars. We find that increasing the salience of both financial and shaming penalties reduces tax delinquencies. We also provide suggestive evidence that the effectiveness of shaming and financial penalties depends on the garnishability of the debtor's Archivo Ver documentoFecha 16/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Family Networks, Confidence and the Emergence of Financial Capital in Antioquia in the XIXth Century
Lugar W-102 Conferencistas Andrés Álvarez & Javier Mejía Cubillos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor César Mantilla, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse Abstract Antioquia is considered the cradle of modern financial capitalism and entrepreneurial culture in Colombia. Moreover, this region is still characterized as dominated, politically and economically, by an entrepreneurial elite based on strong and secular family links. Most of these ideas are based on cultural and sociological evidence collected and analyzed independently from economic or entrepreneurial historical evidence. In this paper we try tackling and assessing the well founded and the economical implications of this hypothesis.
We construct two new data sets. On the one hand, we use biographical information from around 1000 people belonging to the Antioquian 19th century elite allowing to construct a genealogy network based on parental, sibling and marriage links among this population. On the other hand, we compile evidence from stock ownership data from private banks and commercial houses since 1860s - 1890s and match it with the individual information of the Antioquian economic elite.
We compute three different measures of network centrality: the degree, measuring the number of connections per node; the betweenness, measuring the relative importance of each node connecting other nodes; and the closeness, measuring the average distance for a node with respect to the other nodes. We find that all these measures are positive and significantly correlated with the likelihood of having stock participation in private banks or commercial houses. We interpret these correlations as evidence of the relevance of social capital among the first entrepreneurial elite in the emergence of banking systems in Latin America.Archivo Ver documentoFecha 14/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Long Term Impacts of Vouchers for Vocational Training: Experimental Evidence for Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Carlos Medina, Banco de la República-Sucursal Medellín Coautores Orazio Attanasio, University College of London; Arlen Guarín, Banco de la República; y Costas Meghir, Yale University Abstract We use experimental data of a training program in 2005 in Colombia. We find that the JeA program had a positive and significant effect on the probability to work in the formal sector. Applicants in the treatment group also contributed more months during the analyzed period. Maximum spells in the formal sector were also longer for beneficiaries of the JeA program and more likely to work for a large firm. Earnings of treated applicants were 10.3 higher in the whole sample and made larger contributions to social security. Nonetheless, when we evaluate the differences in earnings by treatment status of those already working in the formal sector, we find no significant difference between the treatment and control groups, suggesting that most of the effect of the program in the labor market is capitalized in the significant increase in the likelihood of working in the formal sector, more than in increases in their productivity, once in the formal sector.
We also find that for the whole sample of applicants, those in the treatment group have 0.18 more years of education, have a probability of graduating from high school 3.1 percent higher, and a probability 2.3 percent higher of attending school. College attendance at the time of the SISBEN survey is 21.8 percent higher in relative terms for applicants in the treatment group in the whole sample. We find no significant effect on fertility decisions, marital status or some dimensions of assortative matching. We do not find any effect on the probability to work in the informal sector or on their informal earnings.
Finally, we find that the benefits of the JeA program are higher than it costs, leading to an internal rate of return of 15.5 percent.
On the whole, the program was a cost-effective alternative, worth to consider to bridging the transit of youths from the informal to the informal sectors in the future.Fecha 09/04/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Bank Runs in Monetary Economies
Lugar W-102 Conferencista David Andolfatto, Vice President, Federal Reserve of St. Louis Coautores Fernando Martin, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; and Aleksander Berentsen, University of Basel Abstract We combine a Diamond and Dybvig (1983) banking system with a Lagos and Wright (2008) dynamic general equilibrium monetary model. Equilibrium bank-runs are driven by sunpots and shocks to fundamentals. The expected frequency of these shocks affects ex ante bank portfolio decisions: investment is low in unstable economies. The Friedman rule does not eliminate bank-runs. A narrow-banking regime eliminates bank-runs, but at a welfare cost that may be worth paying in unstable regimes. Suspension of withdrawals eliminates bank-runs when they are driven by sunspots, but not when they are driven by fundamentals. When bank-runs are driven by fundamentals, monetary injections to the banking sector replaces bank-runs with an orderly partial default episodes. Fecha 07/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Income Taxation, Political Accountability and the Provision of Public Goods
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Oskar Nupia, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Abstract Using an agency-voting model and considering different income tax schedules, we analyze whether an increase in the marginal tax rates—or, alternatively, more tax progressivity—positively affects the degree of political accountability and the provision of public goods. We find that there are two necessary (but not sufficient) conditions to unambiguously observe this outcome. The change in taxes must generate an increase in the total tax revenues, and must negatively affect the pivotal voter's disposable income. If these two conditions hold and the pivotal voter's relative valuation for public good (normalized by his income) is high enough, then the said outcome can be observed. Furthermore, in the presence of a nonlinear tax system, this outcome is easier to be observed when the difference between the pivotal voter's income and the break-even income point is large. Fecha 24/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Contexto Histórico y evolución del SGP en Colombia
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Jaime Bonet, Gerente – Banco de la República Sucursal Cartagena Coautores Javier Pérez (Banco de la República - Sucursal Cartagena); Jhorland Ayala (Banco de la República – Sucursal Cartagena) Abstract En este documento se estudia el funcionamiento reciente del sistema de transferencias, en particular a partir de la creación del Sistema General de Participaciones (SGP). De igual forma se analiza el balance entre las competencias y los recursos de los gobiernos subnacionales y se ofrecen algunas recomendaciones en el marco de una futura reforma al SGP. Los resultados dejan ver un sistema de transferencias complejo, no solo en su estructura sino en los criterios de asignación de los recursos. En cuanto a los logros de la última reforma, se encontró que en general las metas establecidas no se cumplieron, que estas se fijaron únicamente en cobertura y no en calidad y que no hicieron una diferenciación para las áreas rural y urbana. En cuanto al paralelo entre competencias y recursos, se encontró que los departamentos están en desventaja en relación a los municipios si se tiene en cuenta que son los que menos recursos reciben y con mayores responsabilidades a cargo, especialmente en su papel de gestores de las competencias de los municipios no certificados. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 12/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Political Constraints and State Capacity: Evidence from a Land Allocation Program in Mexico
Lugar W-102 Conferencistas Leopoldo Fergusson y Juan Felipe Riaño, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautor Horacio Larreguy (Harvard) Abstract In this paper we contribute to the understanding of the politics of state building. We emphasize that incumbent clientelistic parties might have incentives to sustain state fragility when politically challenged. We develop a theoretical model of the politics of state strengthening, and test its implications exploiting a unique policy program from Mexico. Incumbent clientelistic parties have a comparative advantage in clientelism as opposed to in public good provision. Investments in state capacity –conceived as a reduction of the cost of providing public goods– consequently undermine their comparative advantage. Therefore, when politically challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents may oppose to state capacity investments. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a unique land allocation program in Mexico. When granting land to communities, the government decided whether to locate them close or far from municipality heads, thus affecting its future ability to provide public goods. Our empirical design uses the distance of the newly allocated land from municipality heads as a measure of local state capacity choice, and exploits a national shock that threatened the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)’s hegemony in the early 1960s but had different intensity across the various Mexican municipalities. Our difference-in-differences estimates corroborate that the PRI allocated land farther away from municipality heads in places where it expected more political contestation. Fecha 17/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. The Mortality Transition, Malthusian Dynamics, and the Rise of Poor Mega-Cities
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Remi Jedwab, Assistant Professor, George Washington University Coautor Dietrich Vollrath (University of Houston) Abstract The largest cities in the world today lie mainly in relatively poor countries, which is a departure from historical experience, when the largest cities were typically found in the richest places. Using new data on the demographic history of the 100 largest megacities of today, we establish several new stylized facts distinguishing poor mega-cities from historically rich mega-cities. To account for these facts we develop a model that combines Malthusian models of endogenous population growth with urban models of agglomeration and congestion, and it shows that the absolute growth of the urban population determines whether a city becomes a poor or rich mega-city. We posit that poor mega-cities arose in part because the post-war mortality transition raised their absolute growth above a crucial threshold. Poor mega-cities continue to grow in size but not in living standards because their poverty keeps population growth high. By expanding prior to the mortality transition, historical mega-cities experienced smaller absolute growth that allowed them to sustain wage growth and kept population growth relatively low Archivo Ver documentoFecha 12/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Intrahousehold Bargaining, Female Autonomy, and Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence from India
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Rachel Heath, Assistant Professor-University of Washington Coautor Xu Tan (also University of Washington) Abstract Standard models of labor supply predict that unearned income decreases labor supply. We propose an alternative noncooperative bargaining model in which a woman's unearned income improves her autonomy within the household, which raises her utility of working and can increase her labor supply. By contrast, we show that a collective household model unambiguously predicts that a woman's unearned income decreases her labor supply. We find empirical support for the noncooperative bargaining model, using the Hindu Succession Act in India as a source of exogenous variation in a woman's unearned income. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 10/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Capacidad estatal en los municipios colombianos: medidas y determinantes
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Guillermo Perry, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes Coautores Eduardo García y Pedro Jiménez, Universidad de los Andes Abstract En este trabajo se construye un conjunto de indicadores de Capacidad Estatal para los municipios colombianos, enfocado en cuatro competencias gubernamentales: fiscal, financiera, física y operativa. En primer lugar, se seleccionaron variables relevantes de un amplio acervo de fuentes y se clasificaron según estas cuatro categorías. En segundo lugar, se construyeron indicadores sintéticos usando la metodología de Componentes Principales (seis en total puesto que las capacidades operativas se dividieron en tres subcategorías). Estos indicadores permiten identificar efectos diferenciados de un amplio grupo de determinantes potenciales y controles sobre cada uno de los componentes de capacidad estatal. Tales determinantes incluyen características geográficas, recursos naturales, conflicto armado interno, competencia política local y población indígena e inmigración durante el período colonial. Los controles incluyen ingreso per cápita y densidad de población actual. Esta selección interdisciplinaria de variables provee una explicación holística de la Capacidad Estatal relacionada con la prestación de servicios públicos en los municipios colombianos. Fecha 03/03/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Perspectivas económicas: La historia sin fin
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Andrés Pardo, Director Ejecutivo de Investigaciones Económicas de Corficolombiana Fecha 26/02/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Subsidies and the Persistence of Technology Adoption: Field Experimental Evidence from Mozambique
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Rachid Lajaaj, Paris School of Economics Coautores Michael R. Carter, University of California, Davis y Dean Yang, University of Michigan Abstract We report the results of a randomized experiment testing impacts of subsidies for modern agricultural inputs in rural Mozambique. One-time provision of a voucher for fertilizer and improved seeds leads to substantial increases in fertilizer use, which persist through two subsequent agricultural seasons. Voucher receipt also leads to large, persistent increases in household agricultural production and market sales, per capita consumption, assets, durable good ownership, and housing improvements. Consistent with learning models of the adoption decision, we find positive treatment effects on farmers' estimated returns to the input package. We also document positive cross-household treatment spillovers: one's own fertilizer use rises in the number of social network members receiving vouchers. Our findings are consistent with theoretical models predicting persistence of impacts of temporary technology adoption subsidies, in particular due to learning effects. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 17/02/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Occupational choice and social interactions: A Study of Victorian London
Lugar W-102 Conferencista José Guerra, University College London Coautor Myra Mohnen, University College London Archivo Ver documentoFecha 5/02/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. What Explains the Great Recession and the Slow Recovery?
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Pablo Cuba-Borda, University of Maryland Archivo Ver documentoFecha 3/02/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Waiting for the Paycheck: Individual and Aggregate Effects of Wage Payment Frequency
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Ines Berniell, CEMFI Archivo Ver documentoFecha 29/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Information and Crime Perceptions: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Luigi Minale, University College London Coautor Nicola Mastrorocco (LSE) Archivo Ver documentoFecha 27/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. Demand Shocks and Endogenous Uncertainty
Lugar ML-513 Conferencista Diego Vilán, University of Southern California Descripción Recessions have been documented as periods of heightened aggregate and firm-level uncertainty. To date explanations have either hinged on the notion that second moment shocks have adverse first order effects, or that negative first moments disturbances are responsible for the observed surges in cross sectional dispersion. I explore the symbiotic relationship between uncertainty and aggregate economic activity and propose framework where endogenous uncertainty may exacerbate or abate aggregate shocks hitting the economy. U.S. Compustat and ShopperTrak data are used to discipline an incomplete markets, heterogeneous-firms framework which is able to reproduce the right business cycle comovements. Results indicate that fluctuations in uncertainty are responsible for about one quarter of aggregate fluctuations in output and employment. Archivo Ver documentoFecha 23/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. "Dynamic Moral Hazard, Risk-Shifting, and Optimal Capital Structure"
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Alejandro Rivera, Boston University Archivo Ver documentoFecha 22/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. "The Consequences of Abortion and Contraception Policies on Young Women's Reproductive Choices Schooling and Labor Supply"
Lugar W-102 Conferencista Diego Amador, University of Pennsylvania Archivo Ver documentoFecha 20/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. "Large Currency Depreciations and Menu Costs"
Lugar SD-702 Conferencista Federico Grinberg, University of California at Los Angeles Descripción This paper studies why inflation in consumer prices is so low after episodes of large currency depreciations in emerging economies, and to what extent this is a consequence of nominal rigidities. Using a small open economy model with menu-cost nominal frictions that is calibrated to micro data from Mexico's
Consumer Price Index, I find that in episodes of large depreciations, the effect of nominal rigidities in retail prices are quantitatively small and short lived.
The incomplete exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices is largely a result of a fall in real wages explained by negative real shocks and nominal stickiness in wages.Archivo Ver documentoFecha 16/01/2015 Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm. end faq
Inicio
