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2014

Are Capital Controls Prudential? An Empirical Investigation

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andrés Fernandez (BID)
Descripción

Co-autores: Alessandro Rebucci (The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School) y Martín Uribe (Department of Economics - Columbia University)

Abstract:
A growing recent theoretical literature advocates the use of prudential capital control policy, that is, the tightening of restrictions on cross-border capital flows during booms and the relaxation thereof during recessions. We examine the behavior of capital controls in a large number of countries over the period 1995-2011. We find that capital controls are remarkably acyclical. Boom-bust episodes in output, the current account, or the real exchange rate are associated with virtually no movements in capital controls. These results are robust to decomposing boom-bust episodes along a number of dimensions, including the level of development, the level of external indebtedness, or the exchange-rate regime. We also document a near complete acyclicality of capital controls during the Great Contraction of 2007-2009.

Archivo logo pdf Fernandez_Rebucci_and_Uribe.pdf 185,44 kB
Fecha 31/07/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“Incentivizing schooling for learning: Evidence on the impact of alternative targeting approaches”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Felipe Barrera-Osorio (Harvard Graduate School of Education)
Descripción

Co-autor: Deon Filmer (World Bank)

Abstract:
We evaluate a primary school scholarship program in Cambodia with two different targeting mechanisms, one based on poverty level and the other on baseline test scores (“merit”). Both targeting mechanisms increased enrollment and attendance. However, only the merit-based targeting induced positive effects on test scores. We show that the asymmetry of response is unlikely to have been driven by differences between recipients’ characteristics. Higher student and family effort among beneficiaries of the merit-based scholarships suggest that the framing of the scholarship mattered for impact. The results suggest that in order to balance equity and efficiency a two-step targeting approach might be preferable: first, target low-income individuals, and then, among them, target based on merit.

Fecha 29/07/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Information Frictions, Nominal Shocks, And The Role of Inventories in Price-Setting Decisions

Lugar W-102
A cargo Camilo Morales-Jiménez, PhD student University of Maryland College Park
Descripción

Abstract

Models with information frictions display output and inflation dynamics that are consistent with the empirical evidence. However, an assumption in the existing literature is that pricing managers do not interact with production managers within firms. If this assumption were relaxed, nominal shocks would not have real effects on the economy. In this paper, I present a model with perfect communication within firms in which nominal shocks have real effects. In this model, intermediate goods firms accumulate output inventories, observe aggregate variables with one period lag, and observe their nominal input prices and demand at all times. Firms face idiosyncratic shocks and cannot perfectly infer the state of nature. After a contractionary nominal shock, nominal input prices go down, and firms accumulate inventories because they perceive some positive probability that the nominal price decline is due to a good productivity shock. This prevents firms' prices from decreasing and makes current profits, households' income, and aggregate demand go down. According to my model simulations, a 1% decrease in the money growth rate causes output to decline 0.17% in the first quarter and 0.38% in the second followed by a slow recovery to the steady state. Contractionary nominal shocks also have significant effects on total investment, which remains 1% below the steady state for the first 6 quarters. I show that if firms make investment decisions and if their nominal input prices and demand do not perfectly reveal the state of nature, the economy exhibits money non-neutrality even under flexible prices and perfect communication within firms.

Archivo logo pdf IFNI.pdf 2,85 MB
Fecha 10/06/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“Raising agricultural productivity and land values through greenhouse gas policy: lessons for Colombia from New Zealand”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Suzi Kerr, Profesor Visitante - Universidad de los Andes y Senior Fellow - Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, New Zealand
Fecha 27/05/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“Inducing Risk Neutral Preferences with Binary Lotteries: A Reconsideration and an Application”.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Jimmy Martinez, Department of Economics - Copenhagen Business School.
Descripción

Coautores: Glenn W. Harrison (Department of Risk Management & Insurance and Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk, Robinson College of Business, Georgia State University) y J. Todd Swarthout (Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University)

Fecha 15/05/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"The impact of index-based insurance on informal risk sharing networks"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Steve Boucher, University of California, Davis
Descripción

Coautor: Matthieu Delpierre (Université Catholique de Louvain)

Abstract:

Moral hazard and adverse selection impede the development of formal crop insurance markets, particularly in developing countries. While informal risk-sharing arrangements offer an alternative to formal insurance markets, the risk mitigation they provide is restricted by limited commitment, moral hazard and their inability to protect against covariate shocks. In this context, index-based insurance is seen as a promising scheme. By construction, it is immune to moral hazard and adverse selection and, if well-designed, offers effective protection against covariate shocks. At first glance, it would thus seem that the two institutions are ideal complements; by offering protection against covariate shocks, index insurance should strengthen the capacity of informal risk sharing arrangements to protect against idiosyncratic shocks. Unfortunately, this intuition ignores the potential effects on incentives and behavior generated by the interaction between the two insurance schemes. This paper theoretically explores this interaction in a model with moral hazard and shows that the formal contract may crowd out informal risk-sharing if it is offered to individuals rather than groups. More precisely, we find that the rate of informal risk-sharing is reduced as soon as individual demand for index-insurance becomes interior. Second, we find that both risk-taking and welfare may be reduced by the introduction of index insurance if the premium is set too high. This adverse effect is due to the worsening of moral hazard in risk taking caused by the introduction of formal insurance. If the formal insurance is offered to the group instead of the individual, the impact on moral hazard is internalized by the group and welfare increases. This result provides an argument for exploring the feasibility of introducing group-based index insurance contracts.

Fecha 13/05/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“Distribución Regional de las Políticas de Desarrollo Productivo en Colombia”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Oskar Nupia, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha 08/05/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Efecto del crédito universitario en el acceso a la educación superior y en los desempeños académico y laboral en Colombia: el caso del crédito ACCES.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Fabio Sánchez y Tatiana Velasco, CEDE - Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautora: Tatiana Velasco Rodríguez (CEDE – Universidad de Los Andes)

Abstract:

Esta investigación determina el efecto del crédito para educación superior ACCES en Colombia sobre indicadores de acceso a educación superior, desempeño académico y laboral de sus beneficiarios. Utilizando la metodología de regresión discontinua y análisis de mediación se encuentra que los beneficiarios de este crédito tienen menor deserción, mejor desempeño universitario medido por materias aprobadas y probabilidad de graduación. Una vez en el mercado laboral tienen mayor probabilidad de vincularse a un empleo formal, exhiben tiempo de búsqueda más largos así como también mejores salarios. La investigación utiliza datos para más de 400 mil aspirantes al crédito con información desde su ingreso a la educación superior hasta su inserción en el mercado laboral como profesionales.

Fecha 06/05/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Beyond Expected Utility in the Economics of Health and Longevity

Lugar W-102
A cargo Marla Ripoll, University of Pittsburgh
Descripción

Coautor: Juan Carlos Córdoba (Iowa State University)

Archivo logo pdf beyond-expected.pdf 2,39 MB
Fecha 29/04/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Contribución extranjera en la economía colombiana: evidencia histórica y cuantitativa

Lugar W-102
A cargo Humberto Bernal, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía
Descripción

Este documento presenta la contribución económica de la población extranjera en Colombia desde mediados del siglo XIX. La contribución realizada por los extranjeros se presenta desde dos perspectivas: histórica y cuantitativa. Desde el punto de vista histórico se presentan las principales contribuciones de los extranjeros según región. La cuantificación de la contribución de los extranjeros en Colombia se realiza bajo una perspectiva agregada donde se utiliza la función de demanda y oferta de trabajo, y los efectos de las externalidades positivas que los extranjeros generan en la economía. Además, se contempla un modelo de series de tiempo (VEC) para cuantificar el impacto de largo plazo de la contribución de los extranjeros en la economía. Los principales resultados del estudio son una contribución importante de los extranjeros en el desarrollo del transporte, agricultura, comercio, industria, arquitectura, educación y minería. Se calcula que la contribución de los extranjeros se encuentra entre el 0,04% y 1,0% del PIB Colombiano durante 1925 y 2012; en términos per-cápita de los extranjeros pasaron de una contribución de Col$2,4 millones de 2012 en 1925 a Col$9,4 millones en 2012. Además, la contribución es permanente y se calcula en un aporte al crecimiento económico de Colombia del 0,66% del PIB. Finalmente, conflictos internacionales como la WWII e internos como el conflicto político armado colombiano han generado emigración transitoria de extranjeros, lo que implica una perdida en el crecimiento del PIB colombiano del 1,0%.

Archivo logo pdf Humberto_Bernal_Migracion.pdf 6,46 MB
Fecha 22/04/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Impulsando el ahorro entre jóvenes de bajos recursos: Evidencia experimental con mensajes de texto

Lugar W-102
A cargo Catherine Rodriguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: Juan Esteban Saavedra, Economista investigador del Centro de Investigación Económica y Social Dornsife, Universidad de California del Sur.

Abstract:

Estudios recientes demuestran que el ahorro de niños y jóvenes puede tener impactos positivos importantes en el corto y mediano plazo en diversas dimensiones. Sin embargo, poco se sabe acerca de cuáles son los mecanismos más eficientes para fomentar hábitos de ahorro en la población joven y especialmente en aquella vulnerable. A través de un experimento aleatorio controlado este trabajo pretende responder si recordatorios o mensajes de educación financiera enviados a través de los celulares pueden o no convertirse en instrumentos que ayuden a fomentar el ahorro juvenil. La información disponible permite analizar el impacto directo en ahorro neto, depósitos y retiros durante un periodo de cera de un año. Además, nos permite responder a preguntas como el impacto diferencial que tiene: i) distintos tipos de mensajes; ii) distinta intensidad de los mensajes y iii) el impacto de largo plazo de los mensajes una vez dejan de ser recibidos.

Fecha 10/04/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Violence and the Formation of Pessimistic Prospects of Upward Mobility and Hopelessness in Colombia

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andrés Moya, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: Michael R. Carter (Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis).

Abstract:

Violence has severe material and psychological consequences. In this article we explore if it also induces pessimistic prospects of upward mobility and hopelessness. For this purpose, we bring together novel data from a sample of individuals residing in violent-torn regions in Colombia, including some who were directly victimized and displaced during last ten years. We find that victims exhibit lower prospects of upward mobility and higher levels of hopelessness. Interestingly, a considerable portion of such pessimistic behavior is explained by the severity of the victimization episodes and the incidence of depression. These results suggest that violence, as well as other negative shocks, can shatter hopes and aspirations thus hindering the ability of victims to move out of poverty

Fecha 08/04/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Mission: Economic Persistence, Human Capital Transmission and Culture in South America

Lugar W-102
A cargo Felipe Valencia Caicedo, Universitat Pompeu Fabra & London School of Economics
Descripción

Abstract:

This research project documents the long-term economic impact of the Guarani Jesuit Missions in South America. It does so by combining data from historical Archives and municipal level Census data from Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Missions resulted in higher levels of income and educational attainment today. Results are robust to the inclusion of geographic controls and the usage of instrumental variables to proxy for missionary distance. Using intermediate historical censuses, human capital appears consistently higher closer to missionary districts. This persistence of educational transmission is consistent with cultural explanations, such as native assimilation and the persistence of occupational activities. Additional tests suggest that migration and tourism are not driving the results, and that the impact is specific to missions from the Jesuit (as opposed to the Franciscan) order.

Fecha 27/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Public development banks and access to credit: empirical evidence for Colombia

Lugar W-102
A cargo Marcela Eslava, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: Marcela Meléndez (Econestudio) y Alessandro Maffioli (BID)

Fecha 25/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Banking Competition and Stability: The Role of Leverage

Lugar W-102
A cargo Xavier Freixas, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Descripción

Coautor: Kebin Ma, University of Tilburg

Archivo logo pdf FM2014_March_LaTeX.pdf 214,25 kB
Fecha 18/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“Uncertainty-driven Labor Market Fluctuations”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Michael Pries, University of Notre Dame
Archivo logo pdf Meardon.pdf 255,02 kB
Fecha 13/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

On Kindleberger and Hegemony: From Berlin to M.I.T. and Back

Lugar W-102
A cargo Stephen Meardon, Bowdoin College
Fecha 11/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"Low Interest Rates and the Use of Reserve Requirements in Emerging Markets"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andreas Hoffmann, Institute for Economic Policy, University of Leipzig
Descripción

Coautor: Axel Löffler (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Archivo logo pdf Low_interest_rates_and_reserve_requirements_05_03_2014.pdf 276,98 kB
Fecha 06/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Tributación Minera en Colombia: Eficiencia y recaudo

Lugar W-102
A cargo Guillermo Perry, Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: Duanjie Chen, Universidad de Calgary

Archivo logo pdf Presentacion_CEDE_GPerry_MAR04.pdf 647,54 kB
Fecha 04/03/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Teoría del Valor Trabajo Abstracto y Teoría de los Precios

Lugar W-102
A cargo Samuel Jaramillo, Universidad de los Andes
Archivo logo pdf CEDE_2011-51.pdf 624,86 kB
Fecha 25/02/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Decentralization and Governmental Transfers in Colombia: Searching for Equity in a Bumpy Economic Geography.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Juan Mauricio Ramírez, Fedesarrollo
Descripción

Coautores: Yadira Díaz, Universidad de Essex y Juan Guillermo Bedoya, Fedesarrollo

Archivo logo pdf Decentralization_and_Equity_Febrero19_2014.pdf 1,58 MB
Fecha 18/02/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Local state history and contemporary conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, Brown University
Archivo logo pdf Depetris-Chauvin_JMP.pdf 2,40 MB
Fecha 13/02/2014

Institutional Investors Flows and the Geography of Contagion.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Damien Puy, European University Institute
Fecha 11/02/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Human capital and labor informality in Chile: A life-cycle approach.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Italo López, University College of London (UCL)
Archivo logo pdf Lopez.pdf 1,22 MB
Fecha 06/02/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Impact from in-utero and early-life shocks on human capital formation: Evidence from El Niño in Ecuador.

Lugar W-102
A cargo María Fernanda Rosales, Harris School (University of Chicago)
Archivo logo pdf Rosales.pdf 1,90 MB
Fecha 04/02/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Industry Dynamics, Investment and Business Cycles.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Julieta Caunedo, Washington University in St. Louis
Archivo logo pdf Caunedo.pdf 539,47 kB
Fecha 30/01/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Identifying the effects of simultaneous monetary policy shocks: Fear of floating under inflation targeting.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Mauricio Villamizar, Georgetown University
Archivo logo pdf Villamizar.pdf 786,56 kB
Fecha 28/01/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

Currency Crises and the ADR Shadow Exchange Rate

Lugar SD-701
A cargo Federico Filippini, New York University
Archivo logo pdf filippini_JMP.pdf 641,52 kB
Fecha 24/01/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Testing for spatial market integration: Evidence for Colombia using a pair-wise approach.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Jesús Otero, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción

Coautor: Ana María Iregui, Banco de la República

Fecha 21/01/2014
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

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