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2013

Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo (ORMET): Analizando el Mercado Laboral desde una perspectiva regional

Lugar W-102
A cargo Oliverio Huertas - Coordinador Nacional Proyecto Red ORMET
Descripción

Las estadísticas oficiales muestran que Colombia avanza en la reducción del desempleo. Desde enero hasta agosto de 2013 la Tasa de Desempleo (TD) bajó en 3 puntos porcentuales, llegando a 9,3%. Sin embargo, los estudios de la Red ORMET evidencian que la calidad del empleo del país no es la mejor. Por esta razón, el ejercicio de observación se ha desarrollado de manera crítica, de forma tal que los gobiernos puedan pensar en políticas concretas y definitivas, que le apunten; no solo a la reducción de la TD, sino al aumento de la calidad y la reducción de la informalidad reconociendo las diferencias poblacionales y regionales, entre otros.

El proyecto Red de Observatorios Regionales de Mercado de Trabajo (ORMET) se creó para fortalecer las capacidades técnicas y operativas de Observatorios Regionales para generar información precisa y pertinente sobre el mercado laboral. Estas instancias se han convertido en una herramienta de producción, monitoreo, análisis y difusión de información que facilita la toma de decisiones de los actores públicos y privados, con respecto a la oferta y demanda de empleo en el país.

El proyecto le apunta a la reducción del desempleo mediante investigaciones que se articulan con apuestas y estrategias del gobierno y de actores clave, reconociendo que es importante que las instituciones del orden nacional y local avancen en la generación de capacidades y oportunidades para que los individuos y las familias ingresen al mercado laboral y tengan la posibilidad de generar ingresos de manera digna y sostenible.

Hoy en día el Proyecto tiene 20 Observatorios Regionales en el territorio nacional gracias al trabajo conjunto del Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNUD), el Departamento para la Prosperidad Social (DPS) y el Ministerio de Trabajo. Desde sus comienzos, se han lanzado una colección de publicaciones dirigida a incidir en la política nacional y regional, con el fin de impactar positivamente en el desempeño del mercado laboral en el país.

Fecha 28/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Dinero, trabajo asalariado e indigencia.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Hernando Matallana, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha 21/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Firm Financing Scope, Corporate Governance and Product Market Competition

Lugar W-102
A cargo Felipe Balmaceda Mahns, Universidad Diego Portales
Fecha 19/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Anthropometric measurements by ethnicity in Colombia, 1965–1990

Lugar W-102
A cargo Karina Acosta, Banco de la República
Descripción

Coautor: Adolfo Meisel, Centro de Estudios Económicos Regionales CEER

Abstract:

We analyzed the evolution of height in Colombia of cohorts born in the period 1965–1990 by ethnic groups. We found that Afro-Colombian men and women were the tallest: 6 cm taller than indigenous people and 2 cm taller than the rest of the population. We also found that the height gap between Afro-Colombians and others decreased during the period under study by 0.7 cm for both men and women. While improvements were noticeable among the Afro-Colombians and those who chose not to be classified by ethnicity, in the case of the indigenous population only female cohorts registered an average-height increase of 1.5 cm. Moreover, we found that indigenous Colombians were more likely than other ethnic groups to experience an increase in biological well-being as a consequence of an improvement in their socio-economic status, thereby reducing the average-stature gap between them and the rest of the population by 2.1 and 3.6 cm for men and women, respectively.

Archivo logo pdfAnthropometric_measurements_bu_ethnicity_in_Colombia_1965-1990.pdf 750,36 kB
Fecha 14/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Family Involvement and Dividend Policy in Closely-Held Firms

Lugar W-102
A cargo Carlos Pombo, School of Management, Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: Maximiliano González, School of Management, Universidad de los Andes; Alexander Guzmán y María–Andrea Trujillo, CESA School of Business and School of Management, Universidad de los Andes

Abstract:

This paper examines how family involvement affects the amount and likelihood of dividend payment in ways that may influence agency problems between majority and minority shareholders, and between owners and managers. Drawing on a database of 458 closely-held Colombian companies, we find that family influence on dividend policy varies depending on type of involvement: Family involvement in management has little or no impact on dividend policy; family involvement through direct or indirect ownership impacts dividend policy negatively; and family involvement on the board affects dividend policy positively, even when the CEO is a member of the founding family.

Archivo logo pdfFamily_Involvement_and_Dividend_Policy-Oct13.pdf 567,59 kB
Fecha 12/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

On some formal concepts of testability

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alvaro J. Riascos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: Xavier Caicedo (Departamento de Matemáticas - UNIANDES)

Abstract:

We provide a structural (algebraic) characterization of the empirical content of any axiomatizable class of structures in a compact logic. This characterization provides a common framework to think about Chambers et. al (2013) and Simon et. al (1973) concepts of empirical content and motivates a generalization of the concept of rationalizable data sets and the empirical content of a class of structures. We give structural and syntactical characterizations. As an application we introduce a notion of approximately consistent data with a class of structures.

Fecha 05/11/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Elusive Pro-Competitive Effects of Trade

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, UC Berkeley, Penn State and NBER
Descripción

Coautores: Costas Arkolakis, Yale and NBER; Arnaud Costinot, MIT and NBER y Dave Donaldson, MIT and NBER

Abstract

We study the pro-competitive effects of international trade, or lack thereof, in models with monopolistic competition, firm-level heterogeneity, and variable markups. Under standard restrictions on consumers’ demand and the distribution of firms’ productivity, we derive two theoretical results. First, although markups vary across firms, the distribution of markups and the share of aggregate profits in revenues are invariant to changes in openness to trade. Second, although the distribution of markups and the share of aggregate profits in revenues are unaffected by trade, gains from trade liberalization are weakly lower than those predicted by the models with constant markups considered in Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare (2012).

Ver documento

Fecha 29/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“A poner la casa en orden en materia de política industrial”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Marco Llinás V., Vicepresidente Consejo Privado de Competitividad
Archivo logo pdfCPC_INC-2012_Cambio_estructural.pdf 640,58 kB
Fecha 24/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Resultados de la modernización de la atención integral a la primera infancia a través de centros de desarrollo

Lugar W-102
A cargo Raquel Bernal, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: Ximena Peña (Universidad de los Andes), Orazio Attanasio, Marcos Vera (IFS y UCL, UK)

Abstract:

En esta serie de estudios se analiza el efecto de la transición de hogares comunitarios a centros de desarrollo infantil en Colombia sobre el bienestar de los niños y niñas beneficiarios de la política de atención integral. En el primer paper se estudia el efecto de la transición de niños en hogares comunitarios a jardines sociales del bienestar, que posteriormente fueron adaptados a los lineamientos de la Estrategia De Cero a Siempre bajo la modalidad de Centros de Desarrollo Infantil (CDI). Con base en un experimento social controlado que asignó hogares comunitarios de manera aleatoria al tratamiento, se estudian los efectos de la transición sobre nutrición, salud, desarrollo cognitivo y desarrollo socioemocional en una muestra total de 15 CDIs y 2,700 niños. En el segundo paper se presentan los impactos de un proveedor particular de servicios en centro, aeioTU, sobre niños y niñas beneficiarios del programa entre la línea de base y el primer seguimiento, apenas 8 meses después. En este caso, la evaluación se llevó a cabo con base en un experimento social controlado que asignó 600 niños de 1,200 de manera aleatoria al tratamiento. El estudio se enfoca, en este caso, en los efectos sobre los niños menores de 3 años de edad. AeioTU es uno de los proveedores de servicios integrales a la primera infancia con unas características que lo diferencian del resto, principalmente, el hecho de que cofinancia hasta 25% de la canasta que ofrece el Estado. Este estudio es relevante porque el gasto por niño/año pasa de USD 480 en hogares comunitarios de bienestar a USD 1,500 en centros. Por tanto, es importante entender si el aumento en inversión se traduce también en mejoras significativas en el bienestar de niños y niñas.

Fecha 22/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

No Todo lo que Brilla es Oro: Minería y Trabajo Infantil en Colombia

Lugar W-102
A cargo Rafael Santos, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Fecha 15/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment

Lugar W-102
A cargo Xavier Giné, World Bank
Descripción

Coautores: Shawn Cole (Harvard Business School), James Vickery (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract:

Weather is a key source of income risk for many firms and households, particularly in emerging market economies. This paper studies how an innovative risk management instrument for hedging rainfall risk affects production decisions among a sample of Indian agricultural firms, using a randomized controlled trial approach. We find that the provision of insurance induces farmers to shift production towards higher-return but higher-risk cash crops, particularly amongst more-educated farmers. Our results support the view that financial innovation may help mitigate the real effects of uninsured production risk. In a second experiment we elicit willingness to pay for insurance policies that differ in their contract terms, using the Becker-DeGroot-Marshak mechanism. Willingness-to-pay is increasing in the actuarial value of the insurance, but substantially less than one-for-one, suggesting that farmers’ valuations are inconsistent with a fully rational benchmark.

Fecha 10/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Cost of Identity

Lugar W-102
A cargo Rajiv Sethi, Columbia University
Descripción

Coautor: Rohini Somanathan, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract:

We present a model in which identity groups are distributed across geographical locations and public goods are local and non-rival within them. Given a distribution of the population of groups across villages, we characterize a utilitarian planner's solution which maximizes the social benefit from public goods for a fixed budget. We then compare this with the allocation of public goods when an elite group controls the public budget and cares only about the welfare of its members. We term the difference between these two outcomes as the cost of identity. Our interest is in understanding how public good access and the mobility of disadvantaged groups is influenced by their proximity to elites. As an application, we use data from the Census of India to examine whether the differential mobility of disadvantaged castes and tribes in India can be explained by their exposure to more powerful groups in ways predicted by the model.

Fecha 08/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Genetic Testing with Primary Prevention and Moral Hazard

Lugar W-102
A cargo Philippe De Donder, Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ-CNRS and IDEI), France
Descripción

Coautor: David Bardey

Abstract
We develop a model where a genetic test reveals whether an individual has a low or high probability of developing a disease. Testing is not mandatory, but agents have to reveal their test results to the insurers, facing a discrimination risk. A costly prevention effort allows agents with a genetic predisposition to decrease their probability to develop the disease. We study the individual decisions to take the test and to undertake the prevention effort as a function of the effort cost and of its efficiency. If effort is observable by insurers, agents undertake the test only if the effort cost is neither too large nor too small. If the effort cost is not observable by insurers, moral hazard increases the value of the test if the effort cost is low. We offer several policy recommendations, from the optimal breadth of the tests to policies to do away with the discrimination risk.

Archivo logo pdfGenetic-rev3.pdf 544,38 kB
Fecha 01/10/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Field Experiments on Sharing in a Risky Social Dilemma

Lugar ML-509
A cargo Jim Murphy (University of Alaska Anchorage)
Descripción

Coautores: Lance Howe (University of Alaska Anchorage), Colin West (University of North Carolina), Drew Gerkey (Oregon State University).

Abstract:

This paper will present the results from a series of field experiments conducted in Kamchatka Russia and Western Alaska that focus on sharing and cooperation in a risky social dilemma. We find strong evidence of risk pooling even without an external commitment device or an opportunity for reciprocity. When faced with idiosyncratic risk, participants make large unconditional direct transfers to individuals who incur a loss, even in the absence of any information about the cooperative behavior of the affected person. However, as more information is revealed, sharing decisions are increasingly conditioned on the cooperative behavior of the affected individual. We also find that in a social environment in which a reputation can be established, voluntary sharing and collective action can be mutually enforcing.

Fecha 24/09/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Rigideces Nominales en una Economía con un Amplio Sector Informal

Lugar W-102
A cargo Fernando Jaramillo, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción

Coautor: Mónica Gómez, Universidad del Rosario.

http://www.urosario.edu.co/urosario_files/ef/ef18401a-1426-4853-91e9-9d0b0262444f.pdf

Fecha 17/09/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Credit Pro-cyclicality and Bank Balance Sheet in Colombia

Lugar W-102
A cargo Franz Hamann, Banco de la República
Descripción

Coautores: Rafael Hernández, Luisa Silva y Fernando Tenjo G., Banco de la República

Abstract:

The recent financial crisis has renewed the interest of economists, both at the theoretical and empirical level, in developing a better understanding of credit and its mechanisms. A rapidly growing strand of the literature views banks as facing funding restrictions that condition their borrowing to a risk-based capital constraint which, in turn, affects bank lending. This work explores the way banks in Colombia manage their balance sheet and sheds light into the dynamics of credit and leverage during the business cycle. Using a sample of monthly bank balance sheets for the period 1994-2012, we find not only that the Colombian banking sector is predominantly pro-cyclical, but also that the composition of bank liabilities provides important information to policy makers regarding the phase of the cycle of the economy. Shifts from low non-core liability ratios to higher ones during the upward phase of the leverage cycle could play the role of an early warning indicator of financial vulnerability. In addition, we find that bank heterogeneity matters and thus, an aggregate measure of bank leverage can mask successfully a fragile financial sector.

Archivo logo pdfFHamann.pdf 1,28 MB
Fecha 12/09/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Commons Without Tragedy: Sampling Dynamics and Cooperative Resource Extraction

Lugar W-102
A cargo Juan-Camilo Cárdenas, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: César Mantilla, Universidad de los Andes y Rajiv Sethi, Barnard College-Columbia University; Santa Fe Institute

Abstract:

This paper reconsiders evidence from experimental common pool resource games from the perspective of a dynamic model of sampling. Despite being parameter-free, the model is able to replicate some striking features of the data: monotonic frequency distributions, the persistent use of strictly dominated actions, and stable heterogeneity in choices. We argue that these patterns cannot be fully accounted for by existing theories based on other-regarding preferences and norms, and that the dynamics of sampling provide a useful complementary explanation for behavior in social dilemmas.

Fecha 10/09/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Uso de diferentes criterios para predecir el desempeño académico de los estudiantes de la Universidad de los Andes

Lugar W-102
A cargo María Figueroa, Centro de Investigación y Formación en Educación-(CIFE), Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: Carlos Rodríguez

Fecha 03/09/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"More than Friends? Using the geography of conflict to estimate the impact of foreign assistance to Colombian insurgents"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Conferencista: Luis R. Martínez, PhD Student, Department of Economics and STICERD, LSE
Descripción

Abstract:

Over 50% of all rebel groups since 1950 are believed to have had bases outside of their country of origin. In this paper I present a data-based method of identifying this form of foreign influence and I provide evidence that the ability to cross international borders leads to a large increase in the intensity of rebel activity. A long list of diplomatic incidents suggests that Colombian guerrilla groups may have been provided refuge in Venezuela during the administration of Hugo Chávez (1999-2013). Since this president could not have helped the rebels before his term started in 1999 and since guerrilla military technology is mainly short-range, I predict that the existence of rebel sanctuaries in Venezuela should be reflected in an increase in guerrilla activity near the border with this country after Chávez takes office. Using subnational data on the Colombian conflict for the period 1988-2008 I find that there is a large increase in FARC activity at the border with Venezuela after 1999, consistent with rebels being able to hide across the border. No robust change is observed in the intensity of activities of either guerrilla group ELN or paramilitary group AUC, suggesting active collaboration from the Venezuelan government as the more likely explanation for the change in FARC activity. Furthermore, I provide evidence against alternative explanations such as economic spillovers from Chávez's domestic policies, the paramilitary expansion of the late 1990s and the US military aid package known as ``Plan Colombia''. I also find that political conditions in Venezuela affect the location of rebels in the country.

Archivo logo pdfMorethanFriends-LuisMartinez-2013_08_17.pdf 2,32 MB
Fecha 27/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Innovaciones Sesgadas: Teoría y Aplicaciones

Lugar W-102
A cargo Hernando Zuleta, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Abstract:

La teoría de innovaciones sesgadas predice que la participación de los factores acumulables en el ingreso nacional es más alta en las economías donde dichos factores son más abundantes, esto es, las economías desarrolladas. La evidencia empírica disponible para las últimas décadas parece confirmar esta predicción. Sin embargo, teoría y resultados generan una serie de dudas que aún no han sido abordadas a cabalidad. En esta presentación se responden, desde un punto de vista teórico, dos preguntas relacionadas con la teoría de innovaciones sesgadas
(i) Si la participación de cada factor está determinada por la elasticidad del ingreso con respecto al factor en cuestión entonces la unidad de medida de los factores juega un rol crucial en los ejercicios de contabilidad de crecimiento. ¿Es posible encontrar una unidad de medida “correcta”?
(ii) Si la participación factorial depende del poder de negociación de los trabajadores uno de los supuestos básicos de la teoría de innovaciones sesgadas se rompe. ¿Qué tan diferente es la participación laboral que prefieren los trabajadores de la elasticidad del producto con respecto al trabajo?

Fecha 20/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Equilibria under Deferred Acceptance: Dropping Strategies, Filled Positions, and Welfare

Lugar W-102
A cargo Çağatay Kayı, Universidad del Rosario
Descripción

Coautores: Paula Jaramillo (Universidad de los Andes) and Flip Klijn (Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE)

Abstract:

This paper studies many–to–one matching markets where each student is assigned to a hospital. Each hospital has possibly multiple positions and responsive preferences. We study the game induced by the student-optimal stable matching mechanism. We assume that students play their weakly dominant strategy of truth-telling.

Roth and Sotomayor (1990) showed that there can be unstable equilibrium outcomes. We prove that any stable matching can be obtained in some equilibrium. We also show that the exhaustive class of dropping strategies does not necessarily generate the full set of equilibrium outcomes. Finally, we find that the so-called ‘rural hospital theorem’ cannot be extended to the set of equilibrium outcomes and that welfare levels are in general unrelated to the set of stable matchings. Two important consequences are that, contrary to one–to–one matching markets, (a) filled positions depend on the particular equilibrium that is reached and (b) welfare levels are not bounded by the student and hospital-optimal stable matchings (with respect to the true preferences).

The link for the paper:

 

http://research.barcelonagse.eu/tmp/working_papers/686.pdf

Fecha 13/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

“Calidad de Educación: 15 años de Evidencia Experimental en Países en Vías de Desarrollo“

Lugar W-102
A cargo Felipe Barrera-Osorio, Assistant Professor of Education and Economics, Graduate School of Education-Harvard University
Descripción

Durante los últimos 15 años, varios países en vías de desarrollo han realizado programas novedosos en procura de una mejor calidad de educación. Varios de estos programas han sido objeto de evaluaciones rigurosas que buscan determinar qué factores causan una mayor y mejor educación. El objetivo de esta presentación es resumir esta evidencia reciente y proponer algunos programas que pueden ser benéficos para Colombia.

Fecha 08/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

UN interventions: Are there regional preferences?

Lugar W-102
A cargo Michael Jetter, Department of Economics-Universidad EAFIT
Descripción

Coautores: Juan C. Duque y Santiago Sosa, Univesidad EAFIT

Abstract

What leads the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to intervene in one conflict, but remain inactive in another? This paper analyzes all 221 documented conflicts since 1945, trying to unveil the characteristics associated with UN intervention. Including geographical aspects, we find that proximity to two the five permanent members of the UNSC has a significant and meaningful effect on the probability of intervention. For every 1,000 kilometers of distance from France or the United Kingdom the probability of intervention decreases by up to 73 percent. In general, UN interventions are significantly more likely in smaller, poorer, less democratic, and less open economies.

Archivo logo pdfUN.pdf 329,74 kB
Fecha 06/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Entorno Global y Situacion Macro-Financiera de Colombia

Lugar W-102
A cargo Sergio Clavijo, ANIF
Descripción

Coautor: Nelson Vera, ANIF

Fecha 01/08/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Crime, Punishment and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents

Lugar W-102
A cargo Catherine Rodríguez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: Ana María Ibañez y David Zarruk

Ver documento

Abstract:

This paper uses a natural policy experiment to estimate how changes in the costs of engaging in criminal activity may influence adolescents’ decisions in crime participation and school attendance. The study finds that, after an exogenous decrease in the severity of judicial punishment imposed on Colombian adolescents, crime rates in Colombian municipalities increased. This effect appears to be larger in municipalities with a higher proportion of adolescents between 14 and 15 years of age. The study provides suggestive evidence that one possible transmission channel for this effect is a decrease in the effort of the police force to capture teenage suspects. The study also finds that the probability that boys of this same age group attend school decreased following the change in the juvenile justice system. This effect is stronger for boys from homes where the heads of household are less educated.

Fecha 30/07/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Distributive Politics of Enforcement: Evidence from Street Vending in Urban Latin America

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alisha C. Holland, Government Department - Harvard University
Descripción

Why do some politicians tolerate the violation of the law? In contexts where the poor are the primary violators of property laws, I argue that the answer lies in the electoral costs of enforcement: enforcement can decrease support from poor voters even while it generates support among nonpoor voters. Using an original dataset on unlicensed street vending and enforcement operations at the subcity district level in three Latin American capital cities, I show that the combination of voter demographics and electoral rules explains enforcement patterns. Supported by qualitative interviews, these findings suggest how the intentional non-enforcement of law, or forbearance, can be an electoral strategy. Dominant theories based on state capacity poorly explain the results.

Archivo logo pdfHolland_Uniandes.pdf 606,04 kB
Fecha 23/07/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Quadratic Vote Buying

Lugar W-102
A cargo E. Glen Weyl, Department of Economics-University of Chicago
Descripción

A group of individuals with access to transfers seeks to make a binary collective decision. All known mechanisms they might use are either are often inefficient (e.g. voting), subject to severe collusion problems (e.g. the Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanism) or require the planner being informed about the distribution of valuations (e.g. the Expected Externality mechanism). I propose a simple, budget-balanced mechanism inspired by the work of Hylland and Zeckhauser (1979). Individuals purchase votes with the cost of a marginal vote being linear in the number of votes purchased; thus the total cost of votes is quadratic in the number purchased. The revenues earned from that individual are then refunded to other individuals. When there are a large number of individuals, this Quadratic Vote Buying mechanism is efficient in any Bayesian equilibrium under symmetric independent private values and is usually nearly efficient even with aggregate uncertainty. Collusion by a small group or individuals' taking on (a small number of) multiple identities does not significantly reduce efficiency.

Archivo logo pdfQVB_4_13.pdf 1,12 MB
Fecha 16/07/2013

Arbitrage Pricing in Noncompetitive Markets

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andrés Carvajal, Western University
Descripción

Coautor: Marek Weretka, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Abstract

This paper gives a sufficient condition under which a non-competitive model separates the equilibrium outcomes from the details of the asset structure, and hence permits the pricing of non-traded derivatives by means of no-arbitrage conditions. We demonstrate that our sufficient condition holds in a number of standard models, including the models of monopoly, Cournot, and Stackleberg. In contrast, Nash equilibrium in the well-known model of strategic market games proposed by Lloyd Shapley and Martin Shubik does not allow for the pricing of non-traded derivatives, and we explain why this is the case.

Fecha 09/07/2013
Hora 11:30 am. a 1:00 pm.

High Powered Incentives with Weak Institutions: The case of the Colombian 'False Positives'

Lugar W-102
A cargo James Robinson, Harvard University
Descripción

Coautores: Daron Acemoglu - MIT, Leopoldo Fergusson - Universidad de los Andes y Juan F. Vargas - Universidad del Rosario.

Abstract:

In a principal-agent model where legal institutions are weak a potential behavioral response to the introduction of high-powered incentives may be the use of illegal methods to achieve a goal. We test this hypothesis by examining the introduction of high-powered incentives in the Colombian army in 2005 designed to encourage soldiers to catch or kill members of guerrilla or paramilitary groups.

We show that this measure led to a dramatic increase in killings of civilians who were presented as members of non-state armed groups (called 'false positives' by the Colombian media). The number of false positives increased differentially in municipalities with low levels of judicial efficiency and where military units were controlled by officers with high promotion incentives. The number of false positives fell after 2008 when the media began to publicize this behavior and the high-powered incentives were removed.

Fecha 02/07/2013
Hora 11:30 am a 1:00 pm

One Size Does Not Fit All: The Role of Vocational Ability on College Attendance and Labor Market Outcomes

Lugar W-102
A cargo Sergio Urzúa, University of Maryland and NBER
Descripción

Coautor: María Prada, University of Maryland

Abstract:

In this paper we study the role of a dimension of ability, vocational ability, that has received little

 

attention by economists when analyzing schooling choices and labor market outcomes. We first describe this

 

ability and then analyze its effect on schooling decisions and wages. To analyze its contribution, we estimate

 

a Roy model with factor structure that deals with the endogeneity of schooling and also allows to differentiate

 

tests scores from unobserved abilities. The results indicate that vocational ability has a positive reward on the

 

labor market as all other dimensions of ability. But, in contrast with standard measures of ability, vocational

 

ability reduces the probability of going to college. In particular, the results from the simulation indicate that

 

one standard deviation increase in cognitive ability is associated with an increase of 18.5 percentage points

 

in the probability of attending 4-year college and 0.8 percentage points for noncognitive ability, while the

 

same increase in vocational ability reduces the probability in 8 percentage points. The returns to cognitive

 

and noncognitive ability are considerably higher than the returns to vocational (9 and 4 percent respectively

 

compared to 1.2 percent for vocational ability). However we find that for the highest decile of vocational

 

ability the conditional mean of hourly wages is higher than the alternative, suggesting that for individuals

 

with very high levels of vocational ability but low levels of standard ability (cognitive and noncognitive) not

going to college is associated with the highest expected hourly wage.

Fecha 25/06/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Distribución de ingresos en el sistema pensional y el impacto de algunas medidas de flexibilización.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Santiago Montenegro Trujillo, Presidente-ASOFONDOS
Descripción

Coautores: Luis Felipe Jiménez Salazar, Sebastián Ramírez Baquero, Alejandro Nieto Ramos y Carlos Arturo Hurtado Martilletti

Abstract:

Este estudio pretende estimar el porcentaje de los afiliados al sistema de capitalización individual que recibirían una pensión bajo los parámetros vigentes de los diferentes regímenes del sistema pensional colombiano, y así poder evaluar los parámetros de cada uno de los regímenes en términos de cobertura. Para esto, se proyectó la población del Régimen de Ahorro Individual con Solidaridad (RAIS) hasta el momento de jubilación y teniendo en cuenta, por una parte los parámetros actuales del mismo y por otra los parámetros vigentes del Régimen de Prima Media (RPM); se evaluó el porcentaje de pensionados. Los resultados obtenidos revelan que la cobertura en el RAIS sería del 25%, cifra superior al 12% que se obtendría en el RPM. Adicionalmente, se evaluó el impacto sobre el número de individuos que acceden a un beneficio pensional al introducir modificaciones a los parámetros. Se evidenció que la flexibilización de los parámetros o la introducción de otros mecanismos de pensión generan un incremento en el número de pensionados.

Fecha 18/06/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Predestination and the Protestant Ethic

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alvaro Sandroni, Kellogg School of Business
Descripción

Coautor: Larbi Alaoui, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE

 

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Abstract:

This paper shows an equivalence result between the utility functions of secular agents who abide by a moral obligation to accumulate wealth and those of religious agents who believe that salvation is immutable and preordained by God. This result formalizes Weber's renowned thesis on the connection between the worldly asceticism of Protestants and the religious premises of Calvinism. Furthermore, ongoing economies are often modeled with preference relations such as \Keeping up with the Joneses" which are not associated with religion. Our results relate these secular economies of today and economies of the past shaped by religious ideas.

Archivo logo pdfcalvinism_finalversion14.pdf 377,91 kB
Fecha 11/06/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"Consecuencias Políticas y Sociales de la Represión de Estado: El Caso de Chile"

Lugar W-102
A cargo María Angélica Bautista, PhD (C) Brown University.
Descripción

En este documento estudio el impacto a nivel individual de la represión por parte del estado para el caso de la dictadura militar Chilena (1973-1990) sobre comportamiento y participación en política. Durante 2012 realicé una encuesta en Chile en donde recolecté micro datos de personas que sufrieron represión y construí un grupo control con características socio-económicas muy similares pero que no experimentaron represión. Dado que hay un sesgo de selección muy claro en el caso de los reprimidos, utilizo diferentes modelos econométricos como diferencia en diferencias y propensity score matching, que intentan lidiar con este problema y así lograr comparar las variables dependientes de los reprimidos vs. los no reprimidos, antes y después de la dictadura. También estimo estos modelos con efectos fijos con el fin de demostrar la robustez de los resultados. Los siguientes son algunos de los hallazgos: Primero, hay una despolitización general de la sociedad pues para el 2012 las personas expresan mejor interés y participan menos en política con relación a 1973. Segundo, que no hay un cambio significativo de la postura ideológica (izquierda/derecha) de las personas. Tercero, que aunque los reprimidos son y fueron más activos políticamente y era más probable que fueran miembros de partidos políticos y sindicatos, como consecuencia de la represión su participación en estos grupos cayó con relación a los no reprimidos. Los reprimidos leen menos periódicos y por último, la participación en grupos de derechos humanos aumenta.

Fecha 04/06/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Modelo de protección para la vejez

Lugar W-102
A cargo Mauricio Olivera, Viceministro de Empleo y Pensiones - Ministerio de Trabajo.
Fecha 28/05/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

“¿Cómo se focalizó Más Familias en Acción y Jóvenes en Acción? Mecanismo y operación para llevar transferencias condicionadas a los más pobres”

Lugar W-102
A cargo Roberto Angulo, Director de Ingreso Social, Departamento para la Prosperidad Social.
Descripción

Durante el año 2011, el programa Familias en Acción entra en una etapa de revisión de su diseño y operación. Después de 10 años de implementación, se considera necesario rediseñar el programa. Este rediseñó implica una nueva focalización del programa para que llegue a la población más pobre y vulnerable del país y que además se ajuste al diagnóstico de pobreza del país. Así mismo, junto al rediseño, se crea el programa Jóvenes en Acción que busca apoyar a los jóvenes pobres y vulnerables para que continúen con su formación y desarrollo de competencias para el trabajo y que implica un nuevo proceso de focalización para definir la población beneficiaria y los municipios donde se va a implementar.

Una vez finalizado el diseño de los programas, en 2012 se inicia el proceso de inscripciones y registro de Más Familias en Acción y Jóvenes en Acción. En esta operación se inscribieron más de 2.700.000 familias y se registraron alrededor de 190.000 jóvenes en todo el país. Todo esto ha estado acompañado de un proceso de bancarización de los beneficiarios de los programas para poder realizar los pagos de los programas. En esta presentación se busca explicar los mecanismos y la operación que logra llevar transferencias condicionadas a la población más pobres y vulnerable.

Archivo logo pdfFocalizacion_MFeA_y_JeA.pdf 4,65 MB
Fecha 21/05/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Natural resources as spoilers in a conflict resolution scenario.

Lugar W-102
A cargo David Monroy, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Abstract:

Diversos autores justifican la prolongación del conflicto con la presencia de recursos apropiables que puedan alimentar la lucha armada. Ante la señal de disolución de un primer grupo que controla recursos, un segundo grupo puede intentar tomar el territorio controlado por el primero. De esta forma se observa una intensificación del conflicto. Dependiendo del tipo de recursos sujetos a apropiación en el territorio del primer grupo, es posible entender cambios en las estrategias por parte del segundo grupo. Este trabajo analiza esto con las desmovilizaciones masivas de los paramilitares. Se estudia la reacción de las FARC ante este evento y sus posibles motivantes. Se utilizan como recursos apropiables la producción de oro, y la producción de hoja de coca.

Fecha 16/05/2013
Hora 12.30 a 1:45 pm.

Collective Land Titling and the Wellbeing of Afro Colombian Communities

Lugar W-102
A cargo Ximena Peña, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: María Alejandra Vélez, Natalia Perdomo y Juan Camilo Cárdenas.

Abstract

In the developing world, collective land titling has become an important tool for recognizing the historical presence of ethnic communities and safeguarding their rights to occupy and manage their territories. However, despite the historic importance of this property rights regime, little is known about the net impact of these titling processes on the wellbeing of these communities. In this paper we attempt to estimate such impact for the process of collective land titling of territories inhabited by afro-descendent communities in Colombia. This titling process, including more than five million hectares of land benefitting more than 62.000 families, began after the writing of the 1991 Colombian Constitution and was formalized with the enactment of Law 70 in 1993. Evaluating the impact of such policies involves statistical challenges. It can be the case that communities who had higher levels of social and human capital received their formal title by the government first and have had a longer time to transform the titling into improvements in their basic socio-economic indicators. Using a Propensity Score Matching technique that allows us to control for the selection bias at the community level, we are able to estimate that the collective titling process has increased the per capita income by 18.8%. It has also increased the level of schooling of the very young (0-4 yrs old child care) with an increase between 4.1% in formal attendance, although the impacts on education attendance for older children seems inconclusive. Further, the program has had a significant reduction in health services access of 4,9%. This is the first evaluation aiming to understand the net impact of the collective titling processes in the wellbeing of Afro Colombian Communities. Our results suggest important policy lessons for the continuing and improvement of these land titling programs.

Fecha 14/05/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Curva de Rendimientos, Riesgo de Default y Actividad Económica

Lugar W-102
A cargo Jaime Rodríguez, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Resumen 1

 

Se presenta evidencia empírica de la estructura a plazos como indicador líder de la actividad económica en países desarrollados y emergentes. Los resultados sugieren que el poder predictivo de la curva de rendimientos tiende a diluirse al bajar en la escala de desarrollo de los países. Se muestra que al descomponer el spread en el efecto de expectativas y la prima de plazos (term premia), el riesgo inmerso en la prima de plazos disminuye el poder predictivo para todos los países de la muestra, salvo para Estados Unidos. Estos resultados sugieren que el riesgo soberano puede jugar un papel importante en la pérdida del carácter predictivo de la estructura a plazos.

 

Resumen 2

Se presenta un modelo cuantitativo de deuda de una economía pequeña y abierta con probabilidad endógena de default. El modelo es calibrado para la economía Argentina permite simular el comportamiento de la curva de rendimientos y su relación con la actividad económica futura. En particular las simulaciones muestran inversión de la curva de rendimientos y el hecho de que la curva de rendimientos sea un indicador líder de la economía Argentina. Se demuestra que al considerar inversionistas neutrales al riesgo no es posible obtener inversión de la curva de rendimientos y que durante tiempos tranquilos las tasas de interés de largo plazo deben ser mayores que las de largo plazo, tal y como lo muestran los datos.

Fecha 09/05/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

Does the Unemployment Benefit Institution affect Workers' Productivity? Evidence from a Field Experiment.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Mariana Blanco, Facultad de Economía - Universidad del Rosario
Descripción

Coautor: Patricio Dalton, Tilburg University

Abstract:

We present evidence on whether and how the type of unemployment benefit institution affects productivity. We compare workers' productivity under a welfare system, where the unemployed receive an unconditional monetary transfer, with their productivity under a workfare system, where the transfer is received conditional on the unemployed spending some time on ancillary activities. We find that the productivity of the average worker is substantially higher under Welfare than Workfare. The main reason for this is that the disutility of being idle under Welfare is larger than cost of the effort they have to exert under Workfare. Being idle while unemployed comes at a psychological cost (including a drop in self-esteem), which workers want to avoid by putting higher effort and, hence, being more productive at work.

Fecha 07/05/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

Using Stochastic Frontier Models To Mitigate Omitted Variable Bias in Hedonic Pricing Models: A Case Study for Air Quality in Bogotá, Colombia.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Fernando Carriazo, Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes.
Descripción

Coautores: Richard Ready, Penn State y James Shortle, Penn State.

Abstract:

Hedonic pricing models use property value differentials to value changes in environmental quality. If unmeasured quality attributes of residential properties are correlated with an environmental quality measure of interest, conventional methods for estimating implicit prices will be biased. Because many unmeasured quality measures tend to be asymmetrically distributed across properties, it may be possible to mitigate this bias by estimating a heteroskedastic frontier regression model. This approach is demonstrated for a hedonic price function that values air quality in Bogotá, Colombia.

Fecha 30/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Impacto del crédito educativo para la educación superior en el acceso, deserción y desempeño académico: Evidencia para Colombia a través de un análisis de regresión discontinua

Lugar W-102
A cargo Fabio Sánchez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción

Coautores: Tatiana Melguizo, School of Education - University of Southern California, Juliana Márquez, CEDE- Universidad de Los Andes.

Abstract:

El objetivo de la investigación es determinar el efecto del crédito ACCES dirigido a los estudiantes universitarios de los estratos 1 y 2 en el acceso a la educación superior, en la deserción y en el desempeño académico. Utilizando información del sistema de información de educación superior para el universo de los potenciales beneficiarios se encuentran efectos significativos y de magnitud importante en las tres variables mencionadas. En este sentido, el crédito educativo no solamente contribuye a aumentar la equidad en el acceso a la educación universitaria sino que mejora el logro académico de los estudiantes beneficiarios del crédito. Dada las condiciones que regulan el ser beneficiario del crédito es posible la utilización de técnicas de regresión discontinúa para el análisis de su impacto.

Fecha 25/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

More Schooling and More Learning? Effects of a 3-Year Conditional Cash Transfer Program in Nicaragua after 10 Years

Lugar ML-512
A cargo Karen Macours, Paris School of Economics
Descripción

Coautores: Tania Barham and John Maluccio

Abstract:
This paper estimates the long-term effects of a CCT program in Nicaragua on educational attainment and learning for boys. Taking advantage of the randomized phase-in, and measuring learning outcomes 10 years after the start of the program, we find program effects on completed education and language and math achievement. We focus on specific age groups that, due to the programs eligibility criteria and school dropout patterns, were likely to have benefitted more in the group of localities that were randomly selected to receive the program first. This allows us to show that the increase in the number of years of education is accompanied by gains in learning. Using the same approach we also establish long term labor market gains.

Fecha 22/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Integración comercial y cambio estructural en Colombia (1986-2006)

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alexis Munari, Estudiante de Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Abstract:

En función del proceso mundial de globalización, desde los años ochenta, el comercio exterior ha representado una porción creciente del PIB en Colombia. Esta integración comercial estuvo acompañada de una mayor exposición de la economía colombiana a la competencia internacional. La literatura documentó como la liberalización comercial inició un proceso de racionalización de las firmas en el sector manufacturero que contribuyó a incrementar su productividad. Sin embargo, una integración comercial creciente puede afectar la productividad agregada por otro canal: el del cambio estructural - definido como los desplazamientos de la fuerza laboral entre sectores de actividad. Este trabajo busca estudiar este canal con base en la encuesta de hogares entre 1986 y 2006. Recurriendo a un análisis microeconométrico, se evidencian, en una primera etapa, un efecto de la apertura sobre el cambio estructural, en particular para los flujos de trabajadores entre el sector manufacturero y el sector de comercio, restaurantes y hoteles, y la existencia de efectos heterogéneos de la educación sobre la relación entre integración comercial y cambio estructural. En una segunda etapa, se incluye en el análisis el fenómeno de la informalidad para que el concepto de cambio estructural esté mejor relacionado con la productividad agregada.

Fecha 18/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Effect of Transport Policies on Car Use: Theory and Evidence from Latin American Cities

Lugar W-102
A cargo Juan-Pablo Montero, Department of Economics-Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (PUC-Chile)
Descripción

Coautores: Francisco Gallego and Christian Salas

Abstract:

In an effort to reduce air pollution and congestion, Latin American cities have experimented with different policies to persuade drivers to give up their cars in favor of public transport. This paper looks at two of such policies: the driving restriction program introduced in Mexico-City in November of 1989 –Hoy-No-Circula (HNC)– and the public transport reform carried out in Santiago in February of 2007–Transantiago (TS). Based on hourly concentration records of carbon monoxide, which comes primarily from vehicles exhaust, we find that household responses to both HNC and TS have been ultimately unfortunate –more cars on the road and higher pollution levels– but also remarkably similar in how fast households have adjusted their stock of vehicles, within a year. Another empirical finding is how different short- and long-run effects of the policies can be. In fact, we find that a (permanent) driving restriction like HNC can still be effective in the short-run, say, for a month or two. We also document significant heterogeneity of the effects of the policy across the city. For the case of TS we complement these results with additional evidence coming from gasoline sales, sales of used and new cars, traffic flows, and the price of taxi medallions. A novel theoretical model is also developed to explain the empirical results and to compute policy costs based on few observables.

Archivo logo pdfMontero_oct18_2012.pdf 1,08 MB
Fecha 16/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

On Risk Adjustment in Competitive Health Insurance Markets: The Colombian Case

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alvaro J. Riascos Villegas (UNIANDES and Quantil)
Descripción

with the collaboration of Eduardo Alfonso (World Bank Consultant), Mauricio Romero (UC San Diego), Sergio Camelo (UNIANDES and Quantil)

Abstract:

We address the design of two main components of a sound compensating mechanism in competitive health insurance markets: Prospective and Ex-post Risk Adjustment. We introduce standard state of the art risk adjusters to Colombian social health insurance capitation formula.

These are disability, chronic diseases group classification systems and diagnostic related groups (DRGs). By doing so, we show how to substantially improve the predictability of per capita health expenditures relative to Colombia’s current formula and at par with best international academic practices. This provides insights on how to ex-ante reduce risk selection incentives while at the same time keeping up with efficiency incentives of health insurers. This is a step forward for Colombian prospective risk adjustment mechanism. As a byproduct of these risk groups based on medical conditions, we further provide two applications relevant for the system: a data mining methodology to alert of atypical items in Colombian health insurance data bases and a crude estimate, based on a discrete choice model, on how much would it cost to introduce a health plan that guarantees access to most medical technologies and services as has been recently suggested in the current reform (POS and No POS services). Finally, we point out a few financial pitfalls of Colombian ex-post adjustment mechanism implemented in the Cuenta de Alto Cost. Colombia’s health insurance data base (base de suficiencia), on which we rely on, is a unique and rich data set on which to test and put to work many economic ideas from the academic health economics literature.

Fecha 09/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Aprendizaje Adaptativo y Expectativas de Inflación

Lugar W-102
A cargo Luis Edgar Basto, Estudiante Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Esta disertación investiga propiedades de modelos macroeconómicos que analizan la dinámica inflacionaria bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo.
En el primer paper, se presenta el problema de seleccionar un Equilibrio de Expectativas Racionales (REE) cuando a un Modelo Neokeynesiano se le incluye inercia inflacionaria, donde no siempre se puede aplicar el criterio de selección de Estabilidad de Expectativas (E-S) de Evans (1985). Y luego se propone una metodología de dos etapas, Aprendizaje de los Residuales, donde los agentes actúan como econometristas que analizan los residuales resultantes de sus modelos de pronóstico para extraer información de la inercia inflacionaria. Con esta metodología se obtienen condiciones de E-S que en general sí permiten seleccionar un REE y que son robustas a varias modificaciones del modelo.

El segundo paper, parte del hecho que la literatura de Aprendizaje Adaptativo asume que los agentes se forman una idea del REE, asociado a una Ley de Movimiento (LoM) desconocida por los agentes. Si por alguna razón los agentes omiten alguna de las variables de tal equilibrio, entonces Evans and Honkapohja (2001) muestran que su aprendizaje ya no converge a ese REE sino a un Equilibrio Restringido de Percepciones (RPE). Con base en esos resultados, en este paper se muestra un caso diferente, donde tal RPE también puede ocurrir cuando los agentes hacen una mala especificación de una LoM que no es completamente estructural ni reducida: esto surge en un Modelo de Economía Abierta cuando se cumple la paridad de intereses y el Banco Central (BC) sigue una regla tipo Taylor. Lo anterior implica que al hacer un análisis empírico de este tipo de modelos, debe emplearse la LoM estructural y no la reducida, ya que no se llegaría al REE sino a un RPE.

En el tercer paper, se parte de un resultado bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo: este implica que los agentes estiman por OLS un modelo mal especificado, ya que no tienen en cuenta que sus expectativas sobre la variable endógena la afectan a ella misma, es decir, desconocen la LoM pero conocen la forma funcional del REE. Sin embargo, tal error de especificación se desvanece en el tiempo (Evans and Honkapohja, 2001). Con base en este resultado, este paper analiza si el aprendizaje de los agentes mejora al usar mínimos cuadrados no lineales (NLS), donde puede corregirse tal error. Para ello, se basa en el modelo de Muto (2011) quien muestra que si los agentes privados aprenden de los pronósticos del BC, las condiciones de E-S son más fuertes que las requeridas en el caso donde cada uno se forma expectativas independientemente, (Bullard and Mitra, 2002). El principal resultado es que si los agentes aprenden de los pronósticos de un BC que usa NLS, entonces las condiciones de E-S son más débiles en general con respecto a las obtenidas por Muto (2011).

Fecha 04/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

Aprendizaje Adaptativo y Expectativas de Inflación

Lugar W-102
A cargo Luis Edgar Basto, Estudiante Doctorado en Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Esta disertación investiga propiedades de modelos macroeconómicos que analizan la dinámica inflacionaria bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo.
En el primer paper, se presenta el problema de seleccionar un Equilibrio de Expectativas Racionales (REE) cuando a un Modelo Neokeynesiano se le incluye inercia inflacionaria, donde no siempre se puede aplicar el criterio de selección de Estabilidad de Expectativas (E-S) de Evans (1985). Y luego se propone una metodología de dos etapas, Aprendizaje de los Residuales, donde los agentes actúan como econometristas que analizan los residuales resultantes de sus modelos de pronóstico para extraer información de la inercia inflacionaria. Con esta metodología se obtienen condiciones de E-S que en general sí permiten seleccionar un REE y que son robustas a varias modificaciones del modelo.

El segundo paper, parte del hecho que la literatura de Aprendizaje Adaptativo asume que los agentes se forman una idea del REE, asociado a una Ley de Movimiento (LoM) desconocida por los agentes. Si por alguna razón los agentes omiten alguna de las variables de tal equilibrio, entonces Evans and Honkapohja (2001) muestran que su aprendizaje ya no converge a ese REE sino a un Equilibrio Restringido de Percepciones (RPE). Con base en esos resultados, en este paper se muestra un caso diferente, donde tal RPE también puede ocurrir cuando los agentes hacen una mala especificación de una LoM que no es completamente estructural ni reducida: esto surge en un Modelo de Economía Abierta cuando se cumple la paridad de intereses y el Banco Central (BC) sigue una regla tipo Taylor. Lo anterior implica que al hacer un análisis empírico de este tipo de modelos, debe emplearse la LoM estructural y no la reducida, ya que no se llegaría al REE sino a un RPE.

En el tercer paper, se parte de un resultado bajo Aprendizaje Adaptativo: este implica que los agentes estiman por OLS un modelo mal especificado, ya que no tienen en cuenta que sus expectativas sobre la variable endógena la afectan a ella misma, es decir, desconocen la LoM pero conocen la forma funcional del REE. Sin embargo, tal error de especificación se desvanece en el tiempo (Evans and Honkapohja, 2001). Con base en este resultado, este paper analiza si el aprendizaje de los agentes mejora al usar mínimos cuadrados no lineales (NLS), donde puede corregirse tal error. Para ello, se basa en el modelo de Muto (2011) quien muestra que si los agentes privados aprenden de los pronósticos del BC, las condiciones de E-S son más fuertes que las requeridas en el caso donde cada uno se forma expectativas independientemente, (Bullard and Mitra, 2002). El principal resultado es que si los agentes aprenden de los pronósticos de un BC que usa NLS, entonces las condiciones de E-S son más débiles en general con respecto a las obtenidas por Muto (2011).

Fecha 04/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm

Costos del Dengue en Colombia (2010-2012)

Lugar W-102
A cargo Raúl Castro R., Facultad de Economía-Universidad de los Andes.
Descripción

El trabajo presenta la estimación de los costos asociados al dengue (tratamiento, ingresos dejados de percibir por muerte prematura, pérdida de productividad y prevención, promoción, control y vigilancia); así como la estimación de costos con modelos alternativos de preferencias reveladas y declaradas en Colombia para los años 2010-2012.

En un período no epidémico (2011), se encontraron 3.990 años de vida perdidos ajustados por discapacidad, mientras que en el año 2010, (seleccionado como el período epidémico) se presentaron 56.815 DALYs. De manera general, se tiene que el costo total del dengue en Colombia para 2010 alcanzó los US$168,16 millones, lo cual representa un 24.8% adicional al 2011 (US$134,71 millones), mientras que en el 2012 (hasta la semana epidemiológica 27) se podía asociar un costo de US$118,71 millones; lo cual representó para 2011, el 0,038% del PIB.

AUTORES:

Raúl Castro R., Director e Investigador

Leonardo García O., Coordinador estudio de campo

Juan Carlos Mendieta L., Investigador

Katia Galera G., Investigador

Jorge Armando Rueda G., Asistente de investigación

Fecha 02/04/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Young businesses, entrepreneurship, and the dynamics of employment and output in Colombia’s manufacturing industry.

Lugar W-102
A cargo Marcela Eslava, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de Los Andes
Descripción

Coautor: John Haltiwanger, University of Maryland.

Abstract:

There is ongoing debate about the role of entrepreneurship in productivity and job growth. One view is that entrepreneurs are the engines of jobs, innovation and productivity growth. From this view, countries with high barriers to entry and barriers to post-entry growth dynamics will fare poorly. An alternative view is that most young and small businesses exist either because the entrepreneur could not find a wage and salary job and/or represent the choice of individuals who would rather work for themselves (typically at home). From this view, the problem many countries face, especially in the developing world, is not too little entrepreneurship but too much – at least too many of the “subsistence” entrepreneurs who have little prospects for growth. This paper contributes to this debate with an analysis of manufacturing startups and their expansion patterns, relative to those of established businesses, in a developing economy: Colombia. Many of the obstacles to efficient entry into the market and to efficient growth are most pronounced in developing countries, and many of the questions about fostering entrepreneurship are most relevant for these countries. We use data from the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey, characterizing plant performance and age of Colombian manufacturing establishments with employees, over the period 1993-2009. We characterize, over the life cycle of businesses, a plant’s performance and its contribution to overall growth, over a number of dimensions: employment, output, investment, productivity. For employment growth, we produce comparable statistics for the US to drive conclusions about differential patterns between the two countries. We also look at cross age-size patterns. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The average young establishment grows much faster and is more productive than the typical old one (e.g. an mean growth rate of employment of 38% for a plant aged 0-4 years, compared to an average 2% contraction for establishments aged 15 years or more); 2) Even abstracting from the contribution of entry, young incumbent plants grow substantially faster than older plants. These differences are driven by the upper tail of the growth rate distribution (at the 90% percentile); 3) While young plants grow on average faster, in any age category growth rates are positively correlated with plant size; 4) Among large (200 employees or more) relatively young establishments (4 or five years old) around 40% were small or medium sized four years before; the proportion of large establishments accounted for by small or medium establishments four years before falls to around 15% for establishments aged fifteen years or more. 5) Despite smaller establishments growing at a slower pace within an age category, young small establishments also explain the bulk of growth over our sample period. Cohorts born before 1980 have contracted substantially by 2009.

Fecha 19/03/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"Informe de la Comisión de Infraestructura: diagnóstico y recomendaciones"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Guillermo Perry, Universidad de los Andes y Roberto Steiner, Fedesarrollo.
Descripción

En Colombia, no obstante algunas reformas recientes, la institucionalidad en la infraestructura de transporte sigue siendo precaria y ello se refleja en los resultados en esta materia.

La administración del Presidente Santos convocó a un grupo de colombianos de diversas especialidades para que analizaran y debatieran el tema y le ofrecieran recomendaciones que contribuyeran a solucionar el notorio atraso que el país presenta en infraestructura de transporte. En esta presentación, se comparte el diagnóstico y recomendaciones de la Comisión.

Archivo logo pdfInforme_Final_infrestructura_v8deoctubre.pdf 992,10 kB
Fecha 14/03/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"Relative Quality of Foreign Nurses in the United States"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Patricia Cortes, Boston University
Descripción

In recent years, the US has become increasingly reliant on foreign registered nurses to satisfy health care demands. The Philippines has emerged as the single largest source of nurses educated abroad, representing more than half of foreign nurses entering the US in the last decade.

One of the main concerns raised by the importation of nurses is the quality of care that they provide. This paper addresses this question by analyzing the relative quality of foreign educated nurses and its evolution over time using Census data from 1980 to 2010 and wages as a measure of skill. We find a positive wage premium for nurses educated in the Philippines, but not for foreign nurses educated elsewhere. This premium cannot be explained by differences in demographics, education, work experience, location, or detailed job characteristics. The assimilation profile of Filipino nurses and the types of hospitals that hire them strongly suggest that the premium re‡flects quality differences and not just unobserved characteristics of the job that carry a higher wage but are unrelated to skill. We provide evidence that the wage premium is likely to be driven by strong positive selection into nursing among Filipinos resulting from the high and heterogeneous returns to the occupation generated by active government support for the migration of nurses in the Philippines.

Coautora: Jessica Pan, National University of Singapore

Archivo logo pdfcortes_pan_december.pdf 1,38 MB
Fecha 12/03/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

"Agricultural Production amidst Conflict: The Effects of Shocks, Uncertainty and Governance of Non-State Armed Actors"

Lugar W-102
A cargo Ana María Ibáñez, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

This paper examines the effect of conflict on agricultural production of small-farmers. We use a unique household survey applied to 4.800 households in four micro-regions of Colombia. The survey collects detailed information on households’ economic conditions, incidence of violent shocks, and presence of non-state armed actors. We separate the effects of conflict on direct impacts, measured through conflict-induced shocks, and indirect impacts, measured through years of presence of non-state armed actors. The results show the association between lower agricultural production and conflict transmits through different channels. In regions with an intense conflict investments are lower and households concentrate production on seasonal crops and pasture. On the other hand, presence of non-state armed actors is associated with a nonlinear effect on investment where more uncertainty increases investment for self-insurance motives. We rationalize these results with an intertemporal model where farmers are uncertain on whether conflict-induced shocks are permanent or transitory, and update beliefs when these are realized. Although traditional reconstruction efforts are crucial, post-conflict policies should also aim to reduce uncertainty and improve the rule of law to foster increases in production.

Coautores: Andres Zambrano y Maria Alejandra Arias, Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes.

Fecha 05/03/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

¿Cómo poner a Colombia en la senda de crecimiento acelerado?

Lugar W-102
A cargo Juan Mauricio Ramírez, Subdirector de Fedesarrollo
Descripción

En los últimos diez años Colombia ha tenido transformaciones fundamentales que se sintetizan en su paso de la lista de "Estados Fallidos" (Failed States) a una economía emergente promisoria, que ha alcanzado el umbral de los US$10 mil dólares de PIB per cápita (en PPP), ha aumentado la tasa de inversión como proporción del PIB a una de las más altas de América Latina, ha duplicado el peso relativo de las clases medias y ha reducido la pobreza de cerca del 50% a 33% de la población.

 

Algunos análisis como el del BBVA-EAGLEs (2012) pronostican que en los próximos diez años Colombia generará un PIB de US$ 322 mil millones, cercano al que generará Francia (US$ 340 mil millones), gracias a un crecimiento anual del PIB de 5.4% (en PPP). De cristalizarse estos pronósticos, las clases medias en Colombia llegarían a más del 50% de la población.

 

De otro lado, la literatura reciente ha caracterizado la llamada “trampa de ingresos medios” (middle income trap) en la cual aparentemente se encuentran diversas economías de ingresos medios altos luego de haber experimentado períodos de crecimiento acelerado (Agénor, Canuto and Jelenic 2012; Eichengreen, Park, y Shin 2013).

¿Cuáles son las posibilidades de que Colombia logre un ingreso per cápita de US$15 mil (PPP) en 2022 y avance de manera sostenida hacia el desarrollo? ¿Cuál es la agenda de políticas prioritaria para plasmar estas posibilidades y evitar la “trampa de ingresos medios”?

Fecha 28/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Tributación y construcción del Estado en Colombia: los casos de Antioquia y Cauca, 1856-1899

Lugar W-102
A cargo Ricardo Kerguelén; Facultad de Economía, Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

Durante el período federal, 1858-1885, la capacidad de los estados colombianos para controlar sus territorios, proveer seguridad a sus habitantes y garantizar derechos de propiedad y contratos fue limitada. Frecuentes insurrecciones limitaron aún más su capacidad para promover la creación de instituciones, la formación de capital físico y humano o promover el desarrollo económico. Cuando fueron creados, 1855-1861, estas unidades contaban con muy pocas de las que podríamos considerar como instituciones estatales, de tal manera que una de sus primeras tareas fue desarrollar una infraestructura para calcular y recaudar impuestos.

En este trabajo, exploro la evolución de la capacidad impositiva de los Estados de Antioquia y Cauca desde su fundación en 1856 y 1857 respectivamente hasta 1899. La información fue recolectada de los informes producidos por sus respectivos gobiernos en archivos en Bogotá, Medellín y Popayán. Aunque ambos estados obtenían sus ingresos a partir de impuestos indirectos, monopolios y licencias, los ingresos tributarios de Antioquia, tanto en términos absolutos como per cápita, fueron consistentemente superiores a los de Cauca. Estas diferencias se debieron no solo al mayor dinamismo económico en Antioquia sino al creciente control del gobierno de ese estado sobre su territorio. En Cauca, la debilidad del gobierno del estado y sus conflictos internos retrasaron la unificación de su sistema tributario. En ambos casos, la dependencia en los impuestos al comercio inter-estatal, llevó a imponer barreras al comercio, dificultando la consolidación del mercado interno colombiano.

Fecha 26/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

To Share Is To Keep: Politicians, Property Rights and Firm Ownership in Post-Apartheid South Africa

Lugar W-102
A cargo Rafael J. Santos, Yale University
Descripción

Institutions that fail to protect citizens against expropriation from the government hinder investment and economic development. How do economic agents counteract these institutions? I propose a theory of companies establishing connections with politicians as a mechanism to protect property rights and increase investment. I build a model in which N companies face a sector-level threat of expropriation. As a response to that threat, the owner of each company non-cooperatively decides what fraction of her shares to transfer to a politician who is pivotal in the expropriation decisions of the government. The model predicts that an exogenous shift in the share transfers of company i increases that company's investment by reducing the sector-level risk of expropriation. This, in turn, generates a sector-level positive externality which indirectly increases investment of other companies in company's i sector.
The predictions of the model are examined using new panel data for South Africa between 1971 and 2003 for 123 listed companies. After Apartheid, a leftist party, which historically promoted the nationalization of the mines and banks of the country, came to power and increased the political insecurity of white-owned firms. At the same time, the first instances of Black Economic Empowerment occurred, whereby white firms transferred shares to black people at preferential terms. I examine the effects of BEE transactions on investment to test the model that I developed above. After showing that most BEE transactions went to companies directed by black politicians, I use an interaction between a post-Apartheid dummy and the size of the second largest shareholder as an instrument for BEE transactions. This instrument satisfies the exclusion restriction in the economic model outlined above and it is relevant because the owner of the company weighs the property rights benefit of transferring part of her shares to politicians with the cost of ceding power to the second shareholder; the larger the latter, the less the shares transfers to politicians. I first confirm that the size of the second largest shareholder has a large negative effect on BEE transactions. I then show that an increase in BEE transactions both at the company level and at the sector level increases long-term investments and that these effects are only relevant for companies in the mining and financial sectors. Finally, I show that firms which engaged in more BEE transactions up to 2003 are more likely to have ANC Ministers and Members of Parliament as shareholders in 2006, but again this relationship is only relevant for firms in the mining and financial sector.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_RSantos_JMP_To_Share_Is_To_Keep.pdf 2,12 MB
Fecha 19/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Financial Development and International Trade

Lugar SD-704
A cargo Fernando Leibovici, New York University
Descripción

This paper studies the extent to which frictions in financial markets affect aggregate trade flows. I study a model of firm dynamics with financial frictions and international trade, calibrated to match key features of firm-level data. I find that, while financial frictions have a large effect on the pattern and extent of international trade at the industry-level, as documented in the literature, they have a small effect on trade at the aggregate-level. Relaxing the financial constraints allows more firms to finance the upfront export entry costs, with a significant impact on industry-level trade flows to the extent that the industry is small enough to affect equilibrium prices. In contrast, removing the financial constraints at the aggregate-level leads to an increase in the wage and interest rate, thereby reducing the returns to becoming an exporter, with a small impact on aggregate trade flows. I also find that the cross-industry response of international trade to financial development is quantitatively consistent with industry-level evidence on the extent of trade across countries, and that the effectiveness of policies aimed at increasing trade by easing the access to credit for exporters is limited if implemented at an economy-wide scale.

Archivo logo pdfLeibovici_JMP.pdf 292,96 kB
Fecha 15/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Optimal Taxation in a Life-Cycle Economy with Endogenous Human Capital Formation

Lugar W-102
A cargo Julian Neira, U.C. Santa Barbara
Descripción

We study efficient allocations and optimal policies in a Mirrleesean life-cycle economy with risky human capital accumulation and permanent ability differences. We assume that ability, labor supply, learning effort and returns to human capital are all private information of the agents. We show that the \no distortion at the top" result from the Mirrleesean literature may not apply if discouraging labor supply increases incentives to invest in human capital. We also show that, under certain conditions, the inverse of the intratemporal wedge follows a random walk, implying that the average intratemporal wedge increases over time. This result is, to our knowledge, novel. We calibrate a two-period economy and find several notable results. First, to elicit learning effort, it is efficient to make the consumption process risky for high-ability agents while insuring low-ability agents. Second, high-ability agents face the largest expected increase in the intratemporal wedge. Third, high-ability agents face a higher intertemporal wedge. These normative prescriptions differ signicantly from the existing literature that abstracts from human capital. We also find large welfare gains for the U.S. from switching to an optimal tax system.

Archivo logo pdfJulian_Neira_Job_Market_Paper.pdf 528,15 kB
Fecha 14/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Monitoring Synchronization of Regional Recessions: A Markov-Switching Network Approach

Lugar W-102
A cargo Danilo Leiva-Leon, University of Alicante
Descripción

This paper develops a new framework for monitoring changes in the degree of synchronization between many stochastic processes subject to regime changes. In the proposed methodology the estimated time-varying dependence relations among the hidden Markov processes governing the system can be interpreted as a dynamicweighted network. Bayesian estimates of an empirical application to the synchronization of business cycle phases in U.S. states suggest that national recessions can be anticipated by an index that accounts for the global synchronization between states, confirming its predictive ability with real-time exercises. Moreover, the way in which an upcoming national recession could simultaneously affect each of its smaller economies at the state level can be dynamically evaluated.

Contacto autor: Esta dirección de correo electrónico está protegida contra spambots. Usted necesita tener Javascript activado para poder verla.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_DLeiva_Leon_Monitoring.pdf 924,54 kB
Fecha 12/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Informal Self-Employment and Business Cycle Persistence: Does the Composition of Employment Matter for Economic Recoveries?

Lugar W-102
A cargo Alan Finkelstein Shapiro, University of Maryland.
Descripción

Self-employment comprises an important share of employment in many countries. Recent studies document that self-employment expands during downturns, a fact that arises from higher transition rates out of unemployment and into self-employment in recessions. Furthermore, countries with higher self-employment shares exhibit lower output persistence over the business cycle. In this paper, I build a business cycle model with frictional labor markets where individuals can be self-employed or employed in salaried firms. I show that economies with larger self-employment shares exhibit faster recoveries following a negative economy-wide productivity shock. Differences in the ease of entry into self-employment as the economy recovers play a key role in explaining contrasting labor market and output dynamics. The model successfully captures some of the key cyclical patterns of self-employment, as well as the quantitative relationship between self-employment and cyclical output persistence in the data.

Contacto autor: (Esta dirección de correo electrónico está protegida contra spambots. Usted necesita tener Javascript activado para poder verla. )

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_AlanFinkelstein_JMP_Informal_Self-Employment.pdf 590,72 kB
Fecha 07/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Endogenous Employment and Incomplete Markets

Lugar W-102
A cargo Andrés Zambrano, Facultad de Economía - Universidad de los Andes
Descripción

This paper explores the role of effort and human capital as mechanisms to alleviate the idiosyncratic risk faced by individuals in the presence of incomplete markets. I construct a DSGE model where effort and human capital determine the probability of being employed the next period. While effort is a flow variable that has to be exerted every period, human capital is a stock variable chosen when the agent is born. I first show how effort and assets are inverse related, and then characterize the investment in education as a function of its cost. In the stationary equilibrium individuals diversify between market and non- market mechanisms to reduce risk. As a result, in the long run, the median individual will hold a negative credit balance, which better approximates the real wealth distribution when compared with previous studies. The results shed light on the potential implication of combining policies of unemployment insurance and subsidies to education to improve the wealth distribution.

Archivo logo pdfHeterogenous_education.pdf 291,68 kB
Fecha 05/02/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Optimal Regulation of the Media Industry

Lugar W-102
A cargo Gustavo Torrens, Washington University in St. Louis
Descripción

This paper studies how a society should optimally organize and regulate its media industry. First, a political economy model of the media industry is developed. Second, a constitutional stage is considered and the optimal regulation of the industry is deduced. A simple but powerful normative message is derived from this analysis. The media should not be treated as a standard industry. Even if it operates under increasing returns to scale, this is not enough to conclude that the best solution is a media monopoly. Unless media productivity is extremely low, the optimal regulation is either to encourage entry with subsidies or to impose moderate entry limitations. It is worthwhile to pay the extra costs associated with several media companies obtaining and reporting the same news because competition avoids media capture and the corresponding dissipation of resources in the political system.

Contacto autor: Esta dirección de correo electrónico está protegida contra spambots. Usted necesita tener Javascript activado para poder verla.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_GTorrens_Optimal_Regulation.pdf 370,83 kB
Fecha 31/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Uncertain altruism and the provision of long term care

Lugar W-102
A cargo Pierre Pestieau, CREPP, University of Liège and CORE
Descripción

Coautores: Helmuth Cremer, Toulouse School of Economics y Firouz Gahvari, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This paper studies the role of private and public long term insurance programs in a world in which family assistance is uncertain. Benefits are paid in case of disability but cannot be conditioned (directly), due to moral hazard problems, on family aid.
Under a topping up scheme, when the probability of altruism is high, there is no need for insurance. At lower probabilities, insurance is required, thought not full insurance.
This can be provided either privately or publicly if insurance premiums are fair, and publicly otherwise. Moreover, the amount of LTC insurance varies negatively with the probability of altruism. With an opting out scheme, if the degree of altruism is high, the optimal policy is to provide parents with full LTC insurance with altruistic children helping their parents. Otherwise, there can be two types of equilibrium. In one, there is full LTC insurance but with no assistance from children. In the other, the LTC insurance is less than full and just low enough to induce altruistic children to help.

When the equilibrium entails assistance from altruistic children, no private insurance is used even if private insurance markets are fair. If the equilibrium is one without aid from children, public insurance no longer dominates private insurance if the latter is fair.

Fecha 29/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

The Curse of Low Aspirations: Remedial Education and Perceived Returns to Education of Roma People

Lugar W-102
A cargo Marianna Battaglia, Bocconi University
Descripción

Coautor: Lara Lebedinski, Bocconi University

We examine how a remedial education program for primary school-age children A effects parental aspirations about their children's future. Using original survey data we collected in Serbia, we investigate whether expectations on labor market perspectives and educational achievement change as a consequence of exposure to the Roma Teaching Assistant Program. We argue that these changes are likely to occur mainly through a role model mechanism: in the program all the assistants are Roma and from the same social background of the pupils they help. The presence of a person belonging to the same community, who proved to be successful, motivates parents to believe their children can succeed. Our results show that parents of pupils in treated schools expect higher returns to education for their kids. They are also more likely to expect them to achieve a secondary level of education.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo3_MBattaglia_JMP_The_Curse_of_Low_Aspirations.pdf 522,68 kB
Fecha 24/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Comparative Advantage and Risk Premia in Labor Markets

Lugar W-102
A cargo German Cubas, Central Bank of Uruguay and FCS-University of Republic
Descripción

Coautor: Pedro Silos, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) we estimate quarterly labor earnings risk across 21 industries of the US economy. We document a significant and positive association between earnings risk (both permanent and transitory) and average log-earnings across industries. The Finance sector is 50% riskier than Government which implies a mean earnings premium of 20%. We develop an equilibrium framework to analyze the interplay between volatility in labor earnings and comparative advantage in determining the level of earnings across industries. We use the model to decompose how much of the empirical correlation represents compensation for risk and how much represents selection. The positive association between permanent risk and earnings is compensation for risk, but selection is responsible for the observed relationship between temporary risk and mean earnings.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_G.Cubas_Comparative_Advantage.pdf 302,73 kB
Fecha 22/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Can Walmart make us healthier? The effect of market forces on health care utilization

Lugar SD-702
A cargo Florencia Borrescio Higa, Brown University
Descripción

This paper analyzes how market forces in the retail market for pharmaceuticals affect utilization of health care. Specifically, I study the impact of Walmart’s $4 Prescription Drug Program on utilization of blood pressure medication and hospitalizations for conditions amenable to drug therapy for the state of Florida. The empirical strategy relies on the change in the availability of cheap generic drugs introduced by the launch of Walmart’s program in 2006, exploiting differences in the distance to the nearest Walmart store across ZIP codes in a difference-in-differences framework. I find that living close to a source of cheap generic drugs increases adherence to antihypertensive medications by 16 percent and decreases the probability of an avoidable hospitalization by 6.5 percent, saving over $50.5 million annually in inpatient costs. These findings shed some light on the potential of market forces to have a significant impact on utilization and overall costs in the health care system.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo_JMP_F.Borrescio_Can-Walmart-make-us-healthier.pdf 1,25 MB
Fecha 18/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

Migration and Long-run Economic Development: Evidence from Settlements in the Pampas

Lugar SD-702
A cargo Federico Droller, Brown University
Descripción

This paper analyzes the impact of migration on long-run economic development. In particular, I study the European migration to Argentina in the late nineteenth century. I use an instrumental variables approach to show that the historical population composition caused differences in current economic outcomes. The IV randomly assigns immigrants across counties by interacting two sources of exogenous variation: the availability of land for settlement and the arrival of Europeans over time. Areas with historically higher shares of European population currently have significantly higher per-capita GDP, higher education rates and a greater proportion of skilled workers. Moreover, I present results which suggest that industrialization and human capital were channels through which migration had long-run effects: counties with higher share of Europeans experienced more advanced levels of industrialization and higher literacy rates.

Archivo logo pdfArticulo1_F.DROLLER_JMP.pdf 517,42 kB
Fecha 17/01/2013
Hora 12:30 a 1:45 pm.

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